Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global recession risks have returned to market concerns, with mixed signals from economic data and financial indicators [1] - The likelihood of a U.S. recession is estimated at 50%, indicating a severe situation [1] - Economic growth forecasts have been downgraded, with economists acknowledging a higher risk of recession compared to three months ago [6] Group 2: Consumer and Investor Sentiment - U.S. consumer confidence fell to a near five-year low in April, which is critical as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [1] - The Eurozone investor confidence index rebounded after a significant drop but remains in negative territory [1][2] Group 3: Commodity Market Signals - Oil prices have dropped approximately 16% this year, currently around $60 per barrel, signaling a slowdown in economic growth [6] - Copper prices, often seen as an economic indicator, have rebounded from near one-year lows but remain below March peaks [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Corporate Earnings - Stock markets have rebounded, with German stocks nearing historical highs and U.S. and Japanese stocks rising over 15% from last month's lows [13] - Despite strong first-quarter earnings, companies like Electrolux and Volvo have lowered their forecasts due to uncertainty, indicating potential challenges ahead [13][14] Group 5: Interest Rates and Bond Market - Government bond markets reflect concerns over economic slowdown but do not indicate a significant rise in recession risks, as central banks are expected to act quickly with rate cuts [11] - Expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have been adjusted following the recent tariff pause [11]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The market's interpretation of policy benefits is limited, and funds still focus on weak expectations. The black sector only showed a brief rebound, without substantially changing the market pattern. Although the spot market is okay, the expectations remain weak. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the steel inventory is in a seasonal improvement phase, resulting in a situation of "good reality but poor expectations." [5] - The cost of coking coal continues to decline, and the coal and coke futures hit new lows. The second round of price increase for coke is temporarily put on hold, with a price cut expected in the middle and late May. The market sentiment is weak, and the coking coal auction has many failed bids. The coal and coke market is recommended to be shorted on rallies. [6][7] - The market's interpretation of the press conference on Wednesday is limited. The steel mill's molten iron output has significantly rebounded, and the short - term iron ore valuation is relatively low. However, due to the expectation of production restrictions, it is not recommended to hold long iron ore positions unilaterally, but positive spreads can be used to express views. [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3126 yuan/ton (+5, +0.16%), HC2601 at 3239 yuan/ton (+8, +0.25%), I2601 at 681 yuan/ton (+1, +0.15%), J2601 at 1550 yuan/ton (-9, -0.58%), and JM2601 at 951 yuan/ton (-13, -1.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3098 yuan/ton (+6, +0.088%), HC2510 at 3217 yuan/ton (+11, +0.34%), I2509 at 708 yuan/ton (+2.5, +0.35%), J2509 at 1507 yuan/ton (-10, -0.66%), and JM2509 at 908 yuan/ton (-7, -0.77%). [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads (RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, I2509 - 2601, J2509 - 2601, JM2509 - 2601) on May 7 were - 28, - 22, 27, - 43, - 43 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 4, 6, 2, 5.5, 5 yuan/ton. The spreads/price ratios/profits on May 7 were: the coil - to - rebar spread was 119 yuan/ton (0 change), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.38 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.66 (+0.01), the rebar disk profit was - 118.55 yuan/ton (+12.73), and the coking disk profit was 299.36 yuan/ton (+9.66). [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 7, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3230, 3220, 3460 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 40, 30, 50 yuan/ton. The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3290, 3290, 3340 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 60, 50, 30 yuan/ton. Other spot prices and their changes are also provided in the report. [2] - **Basis**: On May 7, the basis for HC, RB, I, J, and JM were 73, 132, 69, 151.66, 102 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 39, 19, 0, - 5, - 6.5 yuan/ton. [2]

Core Insights - Rare earth elements are becoming a crucial resource in the global trade landscape, significantly influencing the future of technology and international relations, particularly in the context of the US-China trade war [1][8] - China holds a dominant position in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 90% of global supply, which has become a strategic leverage point in the ongoing trade conflict [1][5] Group 1: Impact on Companies - Tesla's humanoid robot project, "Optimus," faces significant challenges due to limited access to rare earth magnets, highlighting the broader difficulties faced by US tech companies in securing essential materials [3][5] - Elon Musk's attempts to negotiate with China for rare earth exports underscore the complexities of balancing technological ambitions with geopolitical realities [3][6] Group 2: Strategic Considerations - The ongoing efforts by the US and Europe to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths are hindered by high environmental costs and technological gaps, making it difficult to establish alternative supply chains [5][8] - The trade conflict is not merely about tariffs but represents a larger struggle for control over future technological advancements, affecting various sectors including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and military applications [8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The potential for dialogue between the US and China, as indicated by shifts in the Trump administration's stance, may lead to new agreements that could alleviate some of the current tensions [6][8] - A collaborative approach among nations is essential for addressing the challenges posed by the rare earth supply chain, suggesting that cooperation may be the key to achieving mutual benefits in the global economy [10]

针对特朗普的这一说法，近日，商务部新闻发言人表示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同时，美方近期通 过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税 战、贸易战是由美方单方发起的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行动。 据海外网报道，美国总统特朗普再度对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔施压，要求美联储降息。这已经是特朗普连续两天就利率问题催促鲍威尔 了。此前，特朗普已经多次敦促美联储降息。而鲍威尔在多个公开场合强调，美联储将保持政策独立性，称当前美国的关税政策令美联储在制定 货币政策时极为棘手。鲍威尔的讲话十分明确，关税政策导致美国经济走势"怪异"，美联储不会急于降息，究竟是保持高利率抗通胀，还是更快 降息托底经济，美联储可能需要留足观察的时间窗口。 特朗普（资料图） 与此同时，美国总统特朗普在前几日的白宫新闻发布会上明确表示，对中国商品征收的关税虽然不会降至零，但会大幅度下降。特朗普声称，他 会对中国"非常友好"，不会采取强硬态度。就在特朗普对中方示好之前， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand is seasonally rising, and the inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level. However, the purchasing willingness of traders remains weak, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the real - estate market remaining weak, the future demand may cool down. Considering the signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with rb2510 expected to trade between 3070 - 3140 [2]. - **For热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, the inventory continues to decline, and exports are blocked. With signs of trade - war easing and potential domestic policy support, a range - bound view is taken, with hc2510 expected to trade between 3190 - 3250 [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - **螺纹**: Demand has a seasonal increase, inventory is low and decreasing, but downstream real - estate is in a downward cycle and trader purchasing is weak [2]. - **热卷**: Supply and demand have weakened, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked [6]. Basis Analysis - **螺纹**: The spot price is 3220, and the basis is 122, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The spot price is 3270, and the basis is 53, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory Analysis - **螺纹**: The inventory in 35 major cities is 508.6 million tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - **热卷**: The inventory in 33 major cities is 282.86 million tons, with a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, considered neutral [6]. Market Chart Analysis - **螺纹**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, but the 20 - day moving average is downward, considered neutral [6]. Main Position Analysis - **螺纹**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. - **热卷**: The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. Factors Analysis - **利多 (Positive factors)**: For both products, production and inventory are at low levels, and consumption is increasing month - on - month. For热卷, the demand remains higher than the same period [2][3][7]. - **利空 (Negative factors)**: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and the terminal demand is weak and lower than the same period. For热卷, the downstream demand outlook is pessimistic [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' risk manager Josh Schiffrin shifted his stance from bearish to bullish, predicting a market rebound within 6-12 months despite current market pessimism [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Schiffrin anticipates a strong market rebound driven by potential negotiations to lower trade barriers and tax cuts, despite risks of a global trade war or recession [1] - After a significant rebound, Schiffrin now expects the market to enter a consolidation phase, indicating a shift from bullish to neutral [3] - The current market prices reflect optimistic expectations regarding trade, which may have already been priced in [3] Group 2: Currency and Commodities Outlook - The dollar has entered a bear market, with expectations of further declines, potentially reaching a target of 1.25 against the euro [3] - Schiffrin maintains a bearish outlook on oil prices, predicting they could drop to $45 due to OPEC's production increases [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Recommendations include shorting overvalued sectors such as non-profitable tech stocks and high-yield stocks [5] - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: positive tariff news, underexposure of discretionary and systematic investors, and the reduction of left-tail risks [7] Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Strong non-farm payroll data has temporarily alleviated recession fears, but concerns about economic slowdown and high earnings expectations remain prevalent [9] - The recent market movements reflect overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic cycle, suggesting a downward bias in risk-reward ratios [10] Group 5: Long-term Market Considerations - A potential decline in U.S. stock price-to-earnings ratios to 18 times could indicate a 20% drop from current levels, prompting diversification away from concentrated investments in large-cap stocks [11]

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯：月差正套，加工费扩张 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PTA空SC | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值支撑，但驱动有限，震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：趋势偏弱 | 11 | | PP：价格震荡，低位成交较好 | 13 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 18 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 20 | | 尿素：震荡有支撑 | 22 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 25 | | LPG：原油隔夜大跌，成本支撑走弱 | 26 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 29 | | 燃料油：日盘小幅回弹，夜盘仍然弱势 | 31 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 31 | | 集运指数（欧线）：低位震荡，10-12反套轻仓持有 | 32 | | 短纤：短期 ...

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is becoming an attractive option for global investors amid market volatility caused by the second Trump presidency, as highlighted by Cushman & Wakefield's chief economist Kevin Thorpe [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Global capital inflow into Asia-Pacific commercial real estate increased from 15% to 25% during Trump's first term, with total investment rising from $25 billion to $45 billion [3] - Following the "Liberation Day" on April 2, investors shifted funds from high-risk assets to safer investments, benefiting real estate as a defensive asset [3] Group 2: REIT Performance - Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have seen their investment weight increase for four consecutive months, with a current overweight ratio of 25%, the highest since the beginning of 2023 [5] - The favorable conditions for REIT investment are attributed to the uncertain economic environment and expectations of interest rate cuts, as REIT income is primarily derived from signed leases, making it less susceptible to economic headwinds [5] Group 3: Economic Resilience - The resilience of the Australian economy, coupled with declining inflation, is boosting market expectations for interest rate cuts, enhancing the attractiveness of the Australian market [5] - In the event of a global trade war, goods previously intended for export to the U.S. may shift to the Asia-Pacific market, further increasing Australia's market appeal [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Amid increasing economic uncertainty, global capital is seeking investment markets that offer stability and growth potential, positioning the Australian real estate market as a potential safe haven for international capital [5]

近期黄金外汇市场受多因素影响波动明显。川普拟对海外制作电影征100%关税，加剧贸易战担忧，避 险情绪升温，投资者涌入金市推高金价，贸易政策不确定性也致各类指数波动剧烈。随后因中美贸易谈 判乐观情绪及对美联储政策声明的预期，避险需求降低，金价从高位回落。此前，现货黄金曾触及4月 22日以来最高水平。凌晨美联储维持利率不变影响较小。鉴于国际贸易消息持续影响市场，投资者需密 切关注并调整策略。 周三黄金市场表现疲软，以大阴柱收盘。亚盘时段，黄金短线高开于3438后暴跌70点，随后回调至 3360，并对3350进行测试。日内黄金一直在3400 - 3360区间震荡。凌晨美联储维持利率不变，市场受此 影响较小，但黄金下行趋势有所增强，尾盘收于3364。对于日内行情可关注3350一线的支撑位以及3395 一线的压力位。王召金建议在3390点位做空，目标看向3375 - 3360。 白银行情走势分析： 昨日白银行情以一根下影线很长的大阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线阴包阳；从1 - 4小时级别走 势来看，昨日白银在33.30处受到压制，拉升至33.232上方后便开始回撤，成功回撤至32.22附近，尾盘 收于32.43附近 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-05-08 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 央行 5 月"双降"，关注未来财政增量政策 ——中国货币政策系列十八 宏观事件 2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 核心观点 ◼ 货币政策"双降" 背景：外部不确定性降低，内部压力对冲。4 月美国实施"对等关税"政策，经济增长面 临的不确定上升，4 月全球制造业 PMI 跌落荣枯线，中国外需在"抢出口"之后逐渐显现， 美国金融市场波动率也显著抬升。压力到了需要"缓和"的窗口。 政策：央行出台"三类十项"政策，金管总局出台"八项增量"政策，证监会推出"三条措施" 稳定和活跃资本市场。（1）总量上，降准 0.5 个百分点，降息 0.1 个百分点；（2）结构 上，汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率降至 0%；结构货性货币政策工具利 率降低 ...