Central Bank Dynamics - The Trump administration is using the $700 million overspend on the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation as a potential reason to dismiss Chairman Powell before his term ends in May 2026 [1] - Federal Reserve officials show significant disagreement regarding interest rate cuts, primarily due to differing expectations on the inflation impact of tariffs [2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.7 trillion, with bank reserves at $3.3 trillion, and discussions on further balance sheet reduction are ongoing [3] Global Central Bank Responses - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering maintaining flexible monetary policy in response to economic growth risks and potential deflation [4] - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey prefers central banks to provide tokenized deposits [6] - The Bank of Japan has completely sold off its holdings in bank stocks, focusing attention on its larger ETF holdings, which could take over 200 years to liquidate at the current pace [6] Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. inflation indicators are showing signs of upward pressure, with companies beginning to pass on tariff-related costs to consumers [9] - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9%, with a net addition of 83,100 jobs, which may influence the Bank of Canada's upcoming monetary policy decisions [10] - The Bank of Korea has paused interest rate cuts, citing significant economic uncertainty from U.S. tariffs [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper continued to decline, with the main contract of Shanghai copper falling 1.63% to close at 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025 [11]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Market Review - Shanghai copper continued to decline last week, with the main contract falling 1.63% to 78,430 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and downstream consumption entered the off - season. Domestic spot trading was mainly for rigid demand. LME inventory increased slightly, and SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons [4]. b) Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is in a tight balance, and there will be an oversupply in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data from 2018 - 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 108,725 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons. The bonded area inventory remained at a low level [4][18]. c) Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees were at a low level [21]. - **CFTC Positioning**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions flowed out [23]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [26]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [29]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Group 1: Trade Tariffs - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU starting August [2] - Over 20 countries received new tariff notices from Trump, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, threatening Brazil with a 50% tariff [2] - Mexico's government views the new tariffs as "unfair treatment" and has initiated negotiations with the U.S. to protect border businesses and jobs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Risks - Deutsche Bank warned that Trump's potential forcing of Fed Chair Powell to resign is a significant and underestimated risk, which could lead to a sharp sell-off in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries [4] - ING strategists noted that while Powell's early departure is unlikely, it would steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors price in lower rates and faster inflation [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $119,000, driven by optimism in the cryptocurrency market [6] - Upcoming congressional reviews of cryptocurrency-related laws are expected to enhance regulatory transparency for the industry [6] - Market sentiment is bullish, with a significant volume of call options indicating traders expect continued price increases [6] Group 4: Investment in AI - SpaceX plans to invest $2 billion in Elon Musk's AI company xAI as part of a $5 billion equity financing round [7] - This investment marks SpaceX's first foray into funding xAI, which has a combined market value of $113 billion after merging with Musk's social media platform [7] Group 5: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. is set to release the June CPI report, with expectations of an increase in the annual rate from 2.4% to 2.7% [9] - Key financial reports, including PPI and the Fed's Beige Book, will also be published this week [9] - Major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, will kick off Q2 earnings reports [10]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 特朗普贸易战引发的通胀究竟在哪？目前几乎没有证据显示其到来，但许多经济学家称，通胀很快就会 显现，或许最快就在本周。 作为美国两大通胀指标之一的消费者价格指数（CPI），预计将在6月录得自特朗普将关税提至数十年 最高水平以来的最大涨幅。 市场预测，6月整体消费者价格将环比上涨0.3%，剔除食品和能源的核心通胀率也将上涨0.3%。核心通 胀率更受美联储关注，因其能更好地预测未来通胀趋势。若预测准确，美国CPI同比增速将进一步偏离 美联储2%的目标，向3%逼近。 更重要的是，6月如此显著的物价上涨，将是美国加征关税推高通胀的首个真正信号——这也将让美联 储7月意外降息的可能性彻底落空。 美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）上月就曾对国会表示，"我们应该会在夏季看到这种影响（指通 胀），在6月和7月的数据中。" 为何与关税相关的通胀迟迟未现？经济学家给出了多个解释： 1、关税调整缓冲：白宫取消或降低了多项关税，缓解了部分潜在涨价压力。 2、企业提前囤货：企业在关税生效前囤积了大量关键进口商品，在库存耗尽前能维持价格 稳定。 3、部分领域通缩对冲：经 ...

泰国财政部长：考虑对更多的美国进口产品实行零关税 金十数据7月14日讯，泰国财政部长周一表示，泰国正在考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税。泰国财 政部长披猜在一次商业研讨会上表示，政府还准备了价值2000亿泰铢（61亿美元）的软贷款，以缓解关 税的影响。如果在8月1日之前不能达成协议，泰国将面临来自华盛顿的36%关税。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market remains positive, but the upward momentum is slowing, and there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The prices of various non - ferrous metals are expected to show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][4]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 1.92% to $9,663/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,320 yuan/ton. Total inventories in three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1st, which may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, putting pressure on the latter. With the raw material shortage situation weakening and the current off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,400 - 9,800/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices first declined and then rose last week. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%, and LME aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,602/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while bonded area inventories increased. Aluminum rod inventories increased, and processing fees were low. With the domestic commodity atmosphere positive but slowing, and the downstream in the off - season, aluminum ingots are expected to accumulate inventory, and aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic main contracts is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,530 - 2,650/ton [4]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.85% to 17,092 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,027.5/ton. The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and social and enterprise inventories are accumulating. With the approaching peak season, downstream demand is improving. Due to the high concentration of long - positions in the LME lead July contract, lead prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,355 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,777/ton. Domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. In the short - term, due to the dovish atmosphere of the Fed and the positive sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The current domestic social inventory is 90,300 tons [6]. Tin - Tin prices fell after high - level fluctuations last week. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is ongoing, but the actual output is yet to come. The shortage of raw materials for smelters persists, and downstream demand is weak. With the supply and demand in short - term balance and the increasing expectation of Myanmar's resumption, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated last week. The main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. Due to weak stainless steel demand, the profit of ferro - nickel production is compressed, and the price of nickel ore has weakened. In July, the surplus pressure of ferro - nickel has slightly eased, but the downstream demand for stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices are expected to be affected by the price difference between nickel and ferro - nickel, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,000/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, up 1.22% for the week. The price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia increased. The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has not changed significantly, with downstream in the off - season and supply at a high level. Without macro - level positive factors, the upward space of lithium prices is limited. The operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 63,040 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On July 11, the alumina index fell 2.7% to 3,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed. With the expectation of stronger ore prices in the medium - term and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the futures price may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity situation remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,710 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.20%. Spot prices in some markets were flat. It is currently the off - season for stainless steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The futures price of cast aluminum alloy first declined and then rose last week. The AD2511 contract rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, and the production profit of enterprises improved slightly. The overall supply and demand are weak in the off - season. Considering the slowdown of aluminum price increase and the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward resistance of cast aluminum alloy prices is large [17][19].

期货热点追踪 特朗普关税：哪些已经生效，哪些可能出台？一文了解。 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - President Trump continues to challenge the Federal Reserve, criticizing Chairman Powell's performance and pushing for interest rate cuts, which could drive gold prices higher if the Fed responds to his pressure [2] - Trump's recent imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU may negatively impact the dollar's credibility, leading to a depreciation of the dollar that would benefit gold prices [2] - Technical analysis indicates a strong short-term bullish trend for gold, with a focus on resistance at $3392 and support at $3343 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza are creating uncertainty in the Middle East, which is expected to provide support for oil prices [4] - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 424, suggesting a potential decline in U.S. crude oil production, which could also support oil prices [4] - The IEA's monthly report has raised oil supply forecasts for the next two years while lowering demand expectations, indicating limited upside potential for oil prices [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Recent strong performance in copper prices has led to a significant breakout above previous highs, suggesting a high probability of maintaining a strong short-term trend [7] - Short-term focus is on testing support at $5.35 after a strong upward movement [7] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, with indicators showing a downward trend below the 20-day moving average, raising concerns about further declines [8] - Attention is on testing support at 38879 [8]

Group 1: EU and US Trade Negotiations - The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, 2025, which has caused significant concern within the EU [2] - EU leaders, including Commission President von der Leyen and Council President Costa, emphasize the importance of fair trade and express readiness to negotiate while warning of potential countermeasures [3] - French President Macron and other EU officials call for immediate action and preparation of credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by the deadline [3] Group 2: South Korea's Trade Strategy - South Korea is seeking to negotiate tariff reductions with the US, inspired by the recent US-UK trade agreement [4][5] - The automotive sector is a focal point for South Korea, with exports to the US projected to reach $34.2 billion in 2024, accounting for 26.8% of total exports to the US [6] - Experts suggest that South Korea could leverage US needs in shipbuilding and LNG projects to negotiate better terms for automotive and semiconductor exports [6] Group 3: Economic Implications - A successful trade agreement between the EU and the US could stabilize supply chains and protect the interests of businesses and consumers on both sides [7] - Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could lead to significant economic losses for both the EU and South Korea, impacting key industries and overall economic growth [7]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周五（7月11日）大幅收涨，开盘价3319.63美元/盎司，最高价3368.71美元/盎司，最低价3312.12美元/ 盎司，收盘价3358.84美元/盎司。 消息面： 白宫经济顾问哈塞特周日表示，如果有证据支持，美国总统特朗普有权解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，并补充称，美 联储在华盛顿总部装修成本超标的问题上"负有很多责任"。哈塞特表示，特朗普试图解雇鲍威尔的任何决定， 都将在很大程度上取决于美联储对总部翻修问题的回答。白宫预算办公室主任沃特上周抨击鲍威尔在美联储大 楼翻修一事上"撒谎"。特朗普一再表示，鲍威尔应该辞职，因为他没有降低利率。 白宫经济顾问哈塞特周日表示，美国总统特朗普已经收到了一些贸易协议提议，并认为它们需要进一步完善， 如果未得到完善，特朗普将继续对墨西哥，欧盟和其他国家征收威胁关税。哈塞特说："如果总统没有达成他 认为足够好的协议，这些关税就会落实。但对话正在进行中，结局如何我们到时便知。"哈塞特表示，特朗普 威胁对来自巴西的商品征收50%的关税反映了特朗普对巴西的行动以及贸易谈判感到失望。 有分析师表示，在经历了几个月的低通胀之后，美国消费者6月份经历的物价涨幅可能略有加快 ...