有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 7 月 9 日 有色日报 美关税冲击，沪铜领跌有色 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 有色金属 | 日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 沪铜 7 月 8 日美国特朗普表示要对铜征收 50%关税，这使得纽约铜拉涨 超 10%，突破 3 月时的高位，一度逼近 6 美元/磅。但伦铜走势反差 较大，呈现冲高回落态势，一度跌破 9600 美元/吨。COMEX 和 LME 价 差快速走阔，按照 7 月 7 日收盘价计算，价差已接近 2 ...

Group 1 - Analysts predict a 5.8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 earnings for Q2, a significant decline from 13.7% in Q1 [1] - The forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 22 times, higher than the 10-year average of 18 times, raising concerns about whether earnings growth can support higher stock prices [1] - The trade war initiated by President Trump has expanded, with increased tariffs announced for 14 countries and specific tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs notes that high tariffs have not yet pressured sales forecasts or corporate spending plans at the overall index level, but some companies may face profit margin risks if they absorb tariff costs [2] - The S&P 500's Q2 earnings growth forecast has stabilized after significant downward revisions in April, particularly for sectors like automotive and durable goods that are heavily impacted by tariffs [2] - The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has decreased by 4.4 percentage points over the past three months, compared to a three-year average decline of 3.5 percentage points [2] Group 3 - Lower earnings expectations may not be negative, as many S&P 500 companies typically exceed analyst forecasts, making it easier to surpass lower expectations [3] - A weaker dollar, which has depreciated about 7% in Q2 and 10% year-to-date, may benefit corporate earnings by making U.S. goods cheaper abroad [3] - The technology and communication services sectors are expected to see the highest year-over-year earnings growth in Q2, with technology projected to grow by 17.7% and communication services by 31.8% [3] Group 4 - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence remains high, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, positioning it as a potential highest-valued company in history [4]

白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗：苹果认为自己体量太大而不会被征收关税。#行情 苹果股价盘前转跌。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of UBS Group emphasized that uncertainty is worse than any specific issue, such as tariffs [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader concern in the financial industry regarding the impact of uncertainty on market stability and investment decisions [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of Trump's announced tariffs on gold prices and market trends [1] - It highlights the ongoing analysis of mainstream commodities and their expected trends in response to economic changes [1] - The content encourages viewers to engage with the analysis provided by TTPS Trading School [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

金十整理：美联储"等等党"和"行动派"各行其是，会议纪要将揭晓方向 在美联储会议纪要公布前，梳理6月会议以来，美联储官员就利率和经济前景发表的公开讲话，可以看 出倾向于观望等待的官员占多数，"早则7月晚则9月"？还需会议纪要进一步明确走向。 等等党： 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早。没有必要急于改变利率。如果通胀压力确实保持受 控，我们将更早而非更晚降息，但我不愿具体指向某次议息会议。 2. 美联储威廉姆斯： 美联储目前的利率立场使我们有时间密切分析新收到的数据，评估不断变化的前 景，并评估实现我们双重任务目标的风险平衡。 3. 美联储理事巴尔：目前数据显示没有紧迫的理由进行降息。不能忽视关税带来的通胀风险。货币政策 已处于良好位置，准备等待以观察经济状况的变化。 4. 美联储施密德：在做出任何利率决策之前，美联储有时间研究关税对通胀的影响。观望的做法是合适 的。 5. 美联储哈玛克（非2025年票委）：在降息之前仍需加强观察。通胀的改善进展非常缓慢。我接近美联 储点阵图的上端位置。 6. 美联储戴利（非2025年票委）：关税可能不会导致通胀大幅或持续飙升，对"秋季"降息持开放态度。 我一直 ...

特朗普关税带来的通胀压力，预计将从7月开始大规模显现？ 据追风交易台最新消息，巴克莱援引NLP分析和一线市场情报称，美国零售商将从7月初开始大规模涨价，重点聚焦返校购物季。报告指出，承担30%更 高关税的货物将在6月底或7月初到达美国港口，并在7月底的返校季节开始进入商店，因此更广泛的关税相关涨价效应将从6月至7月开始显现。 这将推动通胀在今年下半年回升。巴克莱表示，尽管5月CPI数据表现温和，但关税导致的价格传导效应即将显现，预计核心CPI将因关税升至3.6%。 几乎所有企业都在讨论涨价、降库存 报告显示，对标普1500企业的财报电话会议的NLP分析发现，在2025年第二季度报告季节中，关税和贸易讨论占据了约90%的电话会议记录，远超2002年 以来的历史水平。平均而言，每次电话会议提到"贸易"和"关税"超过12次。 值得注意的是，"价格"和"提价"的讨论变得更加突出，使得2025年第二季度的覆盖率达到78%，几乎与2008年底和2009年初的79%峰值持平。企业高管在 当前报告季度更频繁地描述价格为"高"或"增加"，而较少提及"低"或"有竞争力"的价格。 这类价格讨论的净值（"高"减去"低"）与标题CPI ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：I：铁矿石 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铁矿石产业链日报 2025/7/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 736.50 | +3.50↑ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 659,461 | +4304↑ | | | I 9-1合约价差（元/吨） | 26.5 | +0.50↑ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has lowered the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.75%, marking the first rate cut since 2020, in response to external uncertainties and to support economic growth amid a moderate inflation outlook [2][5][7] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OPR is a preventive measure aimed at maintaining Malaysia's robust growth path in light of a downward risk balance for growth prospects, primarily due to global trade slowdown and weak market sentiment [2][6] - This rate cut follows a 12-month tightening cycle that ended in May 2023, when the statutory reserve requirement was also reduced, injecting approximately 19 billion ringgit (4.5 billion USD) into the banking system [2][5] Economic Outlook - BNM expects inflation to remain moderate, with projections indicating it will be below 3% by 2025, compared to 1.8% in the previous year [2][6] - The central bank anticipates limited price pressures from global commodity prices and domestic reforms, which are expected to have a controlled overall impact on inflation [6][7] Currency Performance - The Malaysian ringgit has appreciated over 5% against the US dollar this year, driven by government encouragement for companies to repatriate overseas earnings [3][7] - Despite a solid domestic economic foundation, external uncertainties, particularly regarding tariffs on Malaysian exports to the US, may impact growth prospects [3][4][7] Future Expectations - Economists predict that BNM may implement further rate cuts in September or November, reflecting a continued dovish stance [3] - The central bank will closely monitor developments and assess the balance of risks to domestic growth and inflation [4][7]