摘要周一(12月29日)亚市盘中，贵金属全线转跌，现货黄金跌破4500美元，现货白银抹去日内逾6%的涨 幅，跌幅达2.00%，现货钯金大跌6.8%，下破1800美元/盎司；现货铂金跌幅扩大至4%。一方面是因为 多头获利了结，一方面是因为市场对俄乌和平前景的预期有所升温，打压避险需求。 光大期货：短时间内银铂不断刷新历史新高，波动率快速上升，金银比和金铂比也快速下降，特别是金 银比已快速降至近四十年以来均值下方，这也就意味着风险正在积聚、后市可想象空间正在缩减。另 外，银铂钯也具有较强的商品属性，价格快速上行往往对实体需求造成潜在的抑制作用，因此当下行情 下要防止市场过热出现快速调整甚至多头获利了结下出现"踩踏"风险，追高宜谨慎。 金瑞期货：白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上涨。而中长 期来说，宏观上包括主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，新能 源需求驱动的白银供需矛盾也持续存在，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase this week, driven by a better-than-expected decline in the US CPI, opening up room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and improving the probability of a soft landing [1][2] - Domestic funds have gained pricing power in the absence of overseas markets, leading to historic price movements for silver, platinum, and palladium, while gold has underperformed in this period [1][2] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to inflows from ETF allocations amid interest rate cut trades, with a long-term view favoring continued holding despite volatility [2] Group 2 - Copper prices are expected to rise again, with Shanghai copper increasing by 5.95% this week, surpassing the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by improved market sentiment following the US CPI decline [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper for 2026 is supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside expectations of increased fiscal spending from the US government [2] Group 3 - Aluminum prices increased by 0.99% this week, following copper price trends, with low inventory levels reported at 617,000 tons, indicating a slight increase from earlier in the week [3] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, demand from automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient, suggesting a stable outlook for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Nickel prices have surged due to a shift in market expectations, with Indonesia planning to reduce nickel production quotas for 2026 by approximately 34% compared to 2025 levels [4] - The actual production in Indonesia is expected to be significantly lower than the approved quotas, which may lead to upward pressure on nickel prices in the long term [4] Group 5 - Tungsten prices have experienced fluctuations, remaining above 450,000 yuan per ton, but have recently declined due to profit-taking by suppliers and concerns over mining quotas at the beginning of the year [5] - The supply of tungsten is expected to continue declining in 2026, with limited large-scale substitution from high-speed steel products, indicating that tungsten prices may remain high [5] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore, coal and coke, rolled steel, rebar, glass, soda ash, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, CSI 300, 2 - year Treasury bonds, 5 - year Treasury bonds, logs, pulp, rubber: Volatility [2][4][6][8][12] - CSI 500, CSI 1000, double - offset paper, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1: Rebound [4][8] - Gold, silver: Volatility with an upward bias [6] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Consolidation [4] - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: Volatility with a downward bias [8] - Live pigs, natural rubber: Volatility [9][12] - PX, PTA: Wide - range volatility [12] - MEG: Low - level volatility [12] - PR: Wait - and - see [12] - PF: Wait - and - see, with possible market consolidation this week [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black industry is affected by factors such as new global mine supplies, steel export policies, and downstream demand, with prices mainly in a volatile state [2] - The financial market is affected by national policies, economic data, and market sentiment, showing short - term volatility and medium - term trends [4] - Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies, with prices showing an upward - biased volatility trend [6] - The light industry products are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with prices mainly fluctuating [6][8] - The prices of oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, exports, and biodiesel policies, showing a downward - biased volatility trend, while the meal prices may rebound in the short term [8] - The price of live pigs is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonal consumption, and is expected to remain volatile [9] - The price of soft commodities is affected by factors such as weather, production, and demand, and is expected to fluctuate [12] - The prices of polyester products are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand, showing different trends such as wide - range volatility, low - level volatility, and wait - and - see [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and the implementation of steel export license management is a negative factor. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - Coal and coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts is expected to occur at the end of the month and take effect in early January. There are still supportive factors, but the implementation of steel export license management has a negative impact on demand [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The implementation of export license management, the emphasis on controlling high - energy - consuming projects, and the call to expand domestic demand have short - term positive effects. The key lies in the production level in January [2] - Glass: The domestic float glass spot market is declining, with supply contraction falling short of expectations and inventory accumulation due to weak demand [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The convening time of the 2026 National Two Sessions has been determined, and the National Finance Work Conference has put forward key tasks for 2026 [4] - Treasury bonds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds remaining flat. The market trend is showing a slight rebound [4] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Multiple attributes support its price, but there are short - term risks [6] - Silver: It shows a similar trend to gold, with short - term upward expectations and long - term support [6] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and imports show different trends. Supply pressure is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate [6][8] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain volatile [8] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides support, but there is a need for the basis to return [8] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - Oils: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and inventory pressure is high. The demand for biodiesel is uncertain, and the overall trend is downward - biased [8] - Meal: Global soybean inventory is relatively abundant, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient. It may rebound in the short term [8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight may decline. Demand has driven up the settlement price and slaughtering rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Production is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is accumulating. Prices are expected to fluctuate [12] Polyester - PX: Supply is high, and prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Cost may be affected by oil prices, and short - term supply - demand has improved, but the long - term trend is weak [12] - MEG: There is long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and short - term prices are in low - level volatility [12] - PR: Cost support has collapsed, and prices are expected to decline [12] - PF: Inventory is low, but the market expectation is bearish, and it may consolidate this week [12]

2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.36%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.10%报 108.300 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.05%报 106.050 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.548 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 26 日以固定利率、数量 ...

今年以来，金、银热度持续攀升，且价格在年末创出新高。截至目前，国际金价年内涨幅超过70%，国 际银价涨幅超过170%。这"史诗级"行情的背后，引发了交易者的一系列疑问：应该如何看待当前的市 场表现？是否过度计价推涨因素？当前位置是配置机遇还是风险区域？带着上述问题，记者采访到多位 市场专家。 金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰表示，本轮金银"牛市"最核心的宏观催化来自"全球实际利率下行预期+风 险溢价抬升"的组合。而这背后，折射出两大市场逻辑：第一，市场持续将未来政策利率下行、通胀韧 性与财政扩张这三大因素并置定价，由此压低长期实际贴现率，并推高对无信用风险资产的配置需求； 第二，在地缘与金融不确定性上升的背景下，官方部门与私人部门共同推进资产与储备多元化，进而形 成更具"结构性"特征的买盘。 对白银而言，在上述宏观定价逻辑的基础上，还存在新能源与电气化领域相关工业需求的大幅增长，这 已导致市场连续多年出现供应缺口。在现货市场，目前白银库存下降至低位，其成为行情的"放大器"， 推动白银价格走出更强劲的上涨态势。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所 ...

12月29日早盘，商品价格持续狂飙。白银连续主力合约日内涨6%，报19210.00元，LME伦铜涨幅扩大超5%， 报12785.33美元/吨，均创历史新高。 受此提振，银、铜板块集体大涨，白银有色、湖南白银领涨，江西铜业、兴业银锡、宝钛股份等跟涨，聚焦 上游资源品的有色矿业ETF招商（159690）早盘获资金净流入。 华源证券指出，供给端，智利铜矿存罢工预期，若罢工事件蔓延，将进一步加剧铜矿紧张格局。冶炼端，国 家发改委鼓励大型铜冶炼骨干企业实施兼并重组，铜冶炼反内卷或有望稳步推进。需求端，高铜价短期对需 求有所抑制，电解铜杆周度开工率60.73%，环比减少2.33pct。中长期看，铜矿资本开支不足，供给端扰动频 发，铜矿供需格局或将由紧平衡转向短缺，同时铜冶炼在反内卷背景下利润周期有望见底，叠加美联储进入 降息周期，铜价有望突破上行。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方稀 土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。截至最新收盘日， 有色矿业指数年内涨幅达103.55%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅93.94%，相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with sharp price increases followed by abrupt declines, indicating potential market instability and speculative behavior [1][3][11]. Price Movements - Silver spot prices initially surged over 5% before dropping approximately 5% [1] - COMEX silver rose over 7% before turning to a slight increase [3] - NYMEX platinum saw a drop exceeding 9%, which later narrowed to under 5% [5] - Spot platinum fell over 7%, with the decline reducing to 3.6% [6] - NYMEX palladium initially increased by about 5% but later dropped by over 6% [8] - Gold futures and spot prices also reversed from gains to losses [9] Recent Performance - Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a broad rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 3.98% [11] - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 4.44% [11] - COMEX silver futures surged 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, with an 18.06% weekly increase [11] - Spot silver rose 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, accumulating a weekly gain of 17.87% and a year-to-date increase of 175% [11] - Spot palladium jumped 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce, with a weekly rise of 12.63% [11] - Spot platinum increased by 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 24.31% [11] Market Analysis - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, with potential for a correction as speculative sentiment rises [11] - A report from Capital Economics suggests that silver prices may fall to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year as enthusiasm wanes [11] - The chief analyst at CITIC Futures indicates that while long-term bullish factors exist, the rapid short-term price increases may have overextended market expectations, posing risks to stability [11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a "generational bubble" due to an influx of capital and severe supply-demand imbalances, leading to a rush for physical silver [12] - Market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026 and strong buying from central banks and private investors have contributed to rising prices [12] Regulatory Actions - To mitigate market risks, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued notifications on December 26, advising market participants to manage risks and outlining trading margin requirements and price limits for the upcoming New Year period [12]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with sharp price increases followed by abrupt declines, indicating potential market instability and speculative behavior [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Movements - On December 29, the precious metals market saw silver prices initially rise over 5% before dropping approximately 5% [1]. - COMEX silver surged over 7% before reversing to a slight increase at the time of reporting [3]. - NYMEX platinum experienced a drop exceeding 9%, which later narrowed to under 5% [5]. - Spot platinum fell more than 7% but later reduced its decline to 3.6% [6]. - NYMEX palladium initially rose about 5% before experiencing a drop of over 6% [8]. - Gold futures and spot prices also shifted from gains to losses during this period [9]. Group 2: Recent Performance and Analysis - Last Friday, the precious metals market saw a significant rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.31% to $4,562 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 3.98% [11]. - Spot gold increased by 1.12% to $4,531.1 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 4.44% [11]. - COMEX silver futures surged 11.15% to $79.68 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 18.06% [11]. - Spot silver rose 10.24% to $79.196 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 17.87% and a year-to-date increase of 175% [11]. - Spot palladium surged 14.24% to $1,923.4 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 12.63% [11]. - Spot platinum rose 10.31% to $2,450.91 per ounce, accumulating a weekly increase of 24.31% [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts warn that precious metal prices are at unsustainable levels, with potential for a correction as speculative sentiment rises [11]. - A report from Capital Economics suggests that silver prices could fall to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year as enthusiasm wanes [11]. - Market analysts highlight that the recent price increases are driven by a significant imbalance in silver supply and demand, leading to a rush for physical silver [12]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued warnings to manage market risks and set trading margin requirements to stabilize the market [12].

突发跳水。 12月29日早间，贵金属市场在短线冲高后直线跳水。具体来看，白银现货一度涨超5%，随后直线跳水，一度跌约5%。 COMEX白银一度涨超7%，盘中跳水转跌，截至发稿微涨。 现货铂金盘中一度跌超7%，目前跌幅收窄至3.6%。 NYMEX铂一度跌超9%，目前跌幅收窄至5%以内。 IG的市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示，白银市场正在上演一场"世代泡沫"，因为越来越多的资本涌入贵金属市场。Sycamore表 示，贵金属价格上涨得益于市场预期美联储将在2026年多次降息，以及央行和私人投资者的强劲买盘。然而，近期最主要的驱 动因素是白银供需严重失衡，引发了对实物白银的抢购。 上周五，贵金属市场全线暴涨，COMEX黄金期货涨1.31%，报4562美元/盎司，上周累涨3.98%；现货黄金涨1.12%，报4531.1 美元/盎司，上周累涨4.44%；COMEX白银期货暴涨11.15%，报79.68美元/盎司，上周累涨18.06%；现货白银暴涨10.24%，报 79.196美元/盎司，上周累涨17.87%，年内累涨175%；现货钯金暴涨14.24%，报1923.4美元/盎司，上周累涨12.63%；现货铂 金暴 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **metal industry**, focusing on precious metals, lithium carbonate, industrial base metals, and steel. Precious Metals - The outlook for precious metals remains optimistic due to factors such as liquidity turning points, geopolitical risks, de-dollarization trends, and central banks' ongoing gold purchases. [4] - Silver, driven by its industrial properties and demand from photovoltaic new energy and AI, is expected to see strong support. Leading companies in this sector are currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for price recovery and allocation. [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have surged recently due to increased demand expectations and delayed supply recovery. [5] - Mid-term demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow due to energy storage needs, while supply growth remains limited, leading to a positive long-term price outlook. [5] Industrial Base Metals - The future outlook for industrial base metals is optimistic, supported by declining interest rates, recovery in traditional demand, and new demand from AI. [6] - Copper supply is particularly tight, with potential strikes in Chile and encouragement from China's National Development and Reform Commission for mergers in the smelting industry, which may tighten supply further. [7] - The aluminum market is experiencing high prices despite being in the off-season, with a copper-aluminum ratio reaching 4.4. Supply is weaker than expected, and the introduction of copper-free air conditioning systems may further expand aluminum applications. [12] Inventory and Supply Risks - Non-US regions are experiencing low inventory days due to a siphoning effect towards the US, which may lead to risks of soft and hard squeezes in these areas. [8] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently at a bottoming phase, presenting a good opportunity for gradual investment, especially in leading companies whose valuations have dropped to around 10 times earnings. [18] - Capital expenditures for these companies are expected to decrease next year, with increased dividends enhancing their attractiveness. [18] - Upcoming supply-side reform measures and the implementation of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" are anticipated to have a substantial impact on the market. [19] Rare Earth Market - The rare earth market is experiencing mixed performance, with light rare earth prices rising while medium and heavy rare earth prices are declining. [14] - Short-term price adjustments are expected, but long-term demand from strategic sectors like electric vehicles and wind power is likely to support price increases. [17] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly in copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten. [16] - Recommended stocks include those with high dividend yields and potential growth, such as Yun Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and China Hongqiao. [16] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment for the metal sector is positive, with expectations of a super cycle driven by macroeconomic factors, liquidity, rigid supply, and recovering demand. [20]