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“新美联储通讯社”:为什么6月CPI数据不会改变美联储的决策
news flash· 2025-07-15 13:37
Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]
美联储传声筒:今天的CPI报告具有“可自行选择解读角度”的特性
news flash· 2025-07-15 13:20
Core Insights - The June CPI report is characterized by its "self-selecting interpretation" nature, allowing for varied perspectives on the data [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.23% month-over-month in June, which is the median monthly increase over the past 12 months, indicating a moderate inflation trend [1] - Most forecasters expect more significant tariff impacts to be seen in July and August, suggesting that the June report may not alter existing views on inflation dynamics [1] - The report's findings may reinforce existing beliefs about the pace and magnitude of inflation transmission, depending on the initial outlook of the analysts [1]
美国核心CPI低于预期 疑或加剧美联储降息分歧
news flash· 2025-07-15 12:50
Core Insights - The U.S. core CPI has seen its fifth consecutive month of lower-than-expected growth, primarily influenced by declining automobile prices [1] - Prices for categories heavily impacted by tariffs, such as toys, furniture, appliances, and clothing, have shown strong performance, indicating that companies are beginning to pass higher import costs onto consumers [1] - The lower-than-expected CPI data raises questions about the extent to which tariffs introduced by Trump will affect consumer prices [1] Economic Implications - Some companies have managed to protect consumers from price increases by stockpiling inventory before tariffs were imposed or absorbing some additional costs at the expense of profit margins [1] - This unexpected data may intensify calls from Trump for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite some officials expressing willingness to consider a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, there remains a division among policymakers regarding whether tariffs will lead to a one-time price shock or have more lasting effects, which may result in maintaining current interest rates [1]
关税影响中国出口价格了吗?——6月进出口数据点评
一瑜中的· 2025-07-15 11:40
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人:夏雪(微信 SuperSummerSnow) 事项 6 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.8% ,彭博一致预期 5% ,前值 4.80% ;以美元计算进口同比 1.1% ,彭博一致预期 1.3% ,前值 -3.40% 。 核心观点 2 、后续出口怎么看? 对于 7 月出口,从高频跟踪指标来看,或仍具韧性,增速可能边际放缓。区域结构上,美国的拖累或再度加剧,而东盟出口或仍保持较高景 气。再往后看,出口下行风险或在积聚 。 报告摘要 一、关税影响中国出口价格了吗? 近期市场关注到日本汽车出口价格大幅下跌, 6 月乘用车出口价格指数相比 3 月跌 7.3% ,引发市场思考出口商是否在关税压力下主动降价出口美国,本文聚焦近 期中国的出口价格变化,主要关注四个问题: 1 )整体来看,关税压力下中国出口价格下滑了吗? 2 )美国进口视角来看,从中国进口价格是否有明显下滑? 3 ) 分行业来看,关税压力越大的行业中国出口降价越多吗? 4 )后续出口价格变化如何跟踪? (一)整体来看:中国出口价格降幅在收窄 中国出口价格指数同 ...
2025年6月进出口数据传递的信号:6月出口维持高增,下行拐点将近
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 10:54
Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]
美国CPI前瞻:料显关税影响 美联储本月不太可能行动
news flash· 2025-07-15 06:32
Core Insights - The upcoming June CPI data is expected to reflect the impact of tariffs, particularly on tariff-sensitive goods like clothing, but it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action this month [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - Economists predict a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for both overall and core CPI, compared to a 0.1% increase in May [1][1][1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.895%, the 10-year yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 4.432%, and the 30-year yield went up by 0.4 basis points to 4.977% [1][1][1]
美联储降息救市!7月14日,今日传出的五大消息已袭来!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 04:21
Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has fallen below 97, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, while the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.35% respectively [1] - Global capital markets are experiencing a flight to safety, with gold prices rising by 1.92% to $3,337 per ounce, and Bitcoin surpassing $117,000, marking a new high [2] - Despite tariff concerns, the Nasdaq index has risen by 0.94%, reaching a historical high, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The effective tariff rate for US companies has surged from 3% to 13%, with predictions it may reach 17% [3] - 73% of S&P 500 constituents are set to report earnings in July, with expectations for earnings per share growth of only 4% [3] - The June non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the growth is heavily reliant on government sectors, indicating structural weaknesses in the job market [4] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - President Trump's tariffs are causing significant market reactions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 422 points following the announcement of new tariffs on Canada [6] - The US has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, and has also targeted Brazil with a 50% tariff on all products [6] - A temporary reprieve occurred when Brazil announced countermeasures, coinciding with the US's decision to cancel additional tariffs on China [8] Group 4: Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts, as highlighted by the June meeting minutes showing a split among decision-makers [10] - Fed Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive, while others warn of the long-term inflationary impacts of tariffs [10] - The political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, with former President Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Powell and suggesting potential replacements who would favor lower rates [12]
《农产品》日报-20250715
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:14
Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures in Malaysia may face pressure due to potential production growth in July, with a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are influenced by Malaysian palm oil trends. For soybean oil, although the USDA report adjusted the data, the impact on prices is limited. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the basis quotation is under pressure [1]. Meal and Grains - The market sentiment for soybeans is pessimistic due to the USDA's report and concerns about tariffs. However, the Brazilian soybean is firm as the Brazilian premium continues to rise. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is increasing, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The soybean meal futures may have short - term upward potential [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig spot market is weak. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Although the current breeding profit has returned to a low level, there is no basis for a significant decline. The market expects a potential market in July and August, but the actual supply may increase, and the 09 contract on the futures has upward pressure [7][9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market's weak sentiment is being released. The price decline is slowing down as the remaining grain decreases. In the medium term, the supply is tight, and the demand from the breeding industry is increasing, which will support the corn price. Attention should be paid to the auction results and subsequent supply scale [11]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited, maintaining a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and it is advisable to take a bearish approach after the price rebounds [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects egg production. The egg price has reached a phased low, and demand may improve due to potential promotions and increased replenishment by traders. The egg price may rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [16]. Cotton - The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry is intensifying. The downstream is facing difficulties, but the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is on the market still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range, but there is a risk of decline if the downstream remains weak [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.12%); the Y2509 futures price was 7,994 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.10%); the basis was 236 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 7.09%). On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 34 yuan, up 14 yuan [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 11, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,770 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.34%); the P2509 futures price was 8,748 yuan, up 66 yuan (0.76%); the basis was 22 yuan, down 96 yuan. On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 30 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 11.76%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,610 yuan, unchanged; the 01509 futures price was 9,424 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.16%); the basis was 186 yuan, up 15 yuan (8.77%) [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,830 yuan, unchanged; the M2509 futures price was 2,992 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.54%); the basis was - 162 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 10.96%). The Brazilian 9 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 74 yuan, up 26 yuan (54.2%) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.79%); the RM2509 futures price was 2,659 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.99%); the basis was - 109 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 5.83%). The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 304 yuan, up 22 yuan (7.80%) [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,131 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.73%); the basis was - 171 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 21.28%). The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3,637 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.50%); the basis was 23 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 43.90%) [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%); the price of the 2509 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.42%); the 9 - 11 spread was 680 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 2.86%) [7]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; in Liaoning was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong was 16,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan was 14,410 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [7]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2509 futures price was 2,302 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.17%); the basis was 48 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 11.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 14.67%); the import profit was 546 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.21%) [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2509 futures price was 2,647 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.34%); the basis was 53 yuan, up 9 yuan (20.45%); the 9 - 1 spread was 37 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 15.91%); the starch - corn futures spread was 345 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 1.43%) [11]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,639 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price of the 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.12%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 178 yuan, up 3 yuan (1.66%) [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.43%); the basis in Nanning was 243 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 2.80%); the basis in Kunming was 88 yuan, up 18 yuan (25.71%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,602 yuan/500KG, up 22 yuan (0.61%); the price of the 08 contract was 3,461 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 9 - 8 spread was 138 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.17%) [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.72 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan (8.40%); the basis was - 740 yuan/500KG, up 192 yuan (20.59%) [16]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of the 2601 contract was 13,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 7.69%) [19]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.12%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.19%); the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan (- 0.38%) [19].
安永—博智隆首席经济学家Gregory Daco:企业仍在采用多种方式来减轻关税影响。在美国经济中,预计关税将占整体CPI月涨幅的三分之一,更大的影响将在夏末显现。随着时间推移,影响会增强。
news flash· 2025-07-14 16:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that companies are adopting various strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs [1] - Tariffs are expected to account for one-third of the overall monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. economy [1] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to become more pronounced by late summer [1]
特朗普再放极限施压!历史高位上的美股将遭遇多重测试
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-13 06:06
上周公布数据显示,美国经济整体依然稳健。就业市场保持稳定,美国劳工部称,上周首次申请失业救 济人数周环比下降0.5万人至22.7万人,低于预期的24.2万人,连续第四周下降。 警惕波动性卷土重来。 随着关税谈判截止日来临,美国总统特朗普宣布了对包括日本、韩国、加拿大和巴西在内超过20经济体 的关税公告。 市场风险偏好因此受挫,美股从纪录高位回落。下周有多个潜在的催化剂将测试本轮牛市的弹性,投资 者密切关注贸易谈判的最新消息,并等待新财报季开启,而最新通胀数据或成为美联储何时降息的关键 因素。随着恐慌指数(VIX)重新回到年内低位,投资者需要警惕波动性卷土重来。 美联储降息预期稳定 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布了6月17日至18日的会议纪要,在连续第四次维持利率不变后,大 多数美联储官员同意年内可以降低当前的联邦基金利率,但对于具体节奏存在着分歧,理由是关税的潜 在通胀影响。"当前的货币政策适度或适度限制,委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经济活动前景的进一步 明朗。" 牛津经济研究所高级经济学家施瓦茨(Bob Schwartz)在接受第一财经记者采访时表示,美联储在更清 楚地了解关税对通胀和就业的影响之前,仍将 ...