近日，关于深圳新房"库存告急"的说法引发了市场热议，真实情况到底如何？ 多位业内人士表示，各家机构的统计数据有所区别，与数据口径及计算方法不同有一定关系。此外，新房去化周期还受到阶段性供应减少等季节性因素影 响，未必能充分反映出深圳楼市的情况。今年2月恰逢春节假期，入市的新房项目数量非常少，目前深圳的待售新房数量仍有不少。根据深圳市住建局公布的 数据，深圳2025年第一季度计划入市的商品住宅项目共16个，商品住宅6130套。 位于深圳坪山区的一处新房销售负责人对记者表示，目前深圳一些核心地段的新房去化较快，但也是建立在较大幅度的价格折扣基础之上，地段较远或者品 质一般的新房小区，去化情况仍然不理想。目前，深圳市场新房并没有出现所谓的"库存告急"现象。 深圳中原研究中心的数据显示，据不完全统计，目前深圳共有近314个新盘在售。进入3月传统的"金三银四"，多个新房项目将加速入市，届时会让新房去化 周期数据产生新的变化。 "去库存"仍在路上 无论如何，"去库存"成为近一年多以来构建房地产发展新模式，促进房地产高质量发展的重要任务。 上海易居房地产研究院发布的一份报告显示，全国楼市库存压力继续释放。今年1月，中国百城 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [5]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is showing multiple positive signals, indicating that it has passed the "worst moment" with policies accelerating to stabilize the market. Concerns regarding falling housing prices, credit risks, and high inventory levels are being addressed [1][14]. - There is an expectation for structural stabilization in housing prices in 2025, with improvements in inventory issues due to "de-inventory" policies [1][14]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, particularly in key cities, with significant year-on-year increases in sales areas [12][25]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22%, while the real estate development sector rose by 2.22%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 2.29%, and the China Inner Housing Stock Index increased by 8.20% [2]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report recommends focusing on key urban markets where transaction volumes and prices are expected to recover. Companies with strong cash flow and performance in these regions are likely to benefit from market stabilization. Key recommendations include: - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) - Buy - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) - Buy - Binjiang Group (002244 CH) - Buy - China Merchants Shekou (001979 CH) - Buy - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) - Overweight [3][43]. Sales and Inventory Trends - From February 1 to 28, new home sales in 44 cities increased by 35% year-on-year, with first-tier cities seeing an 80% increase. The cumulative year-on-year increase for new home sales in these cities is 5% [16]. - Second-hand home sales in 22 cities rose by 102% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 131% increase [25]. - Inventory levels in 21 cities showed a rolling four-week decline of 0% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [35]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that 2025 will see a steady increase in transaction volumes in first-tier and some second-tier cities, with a stabilization in housing prices. The land market is also expected to regain some heat, with increased transaction values and premium rates [13][14]. - The report emphasizes that the concerns regarding the risk of major real estate companies are gradually alleviating, contributing to a recovery in industry confidence [14].

证 券 研 究 报 告 | 行 业 定 期 报 告 2 0 2 4 年 1 2 月 9 日 签 约 客 户 可 长 按 扫 码 阅 读 报 告 近期酒企召开经销商大会等，对明年增长定调，茅台、汾酒、今世缘等管理 层纷纷表态。各家酒企对明年目标更加理性务实，进入供给侧主动收缩去包袱的阶 段，市场将更关注实际动销，股价或先于报表出现拐点。 食品板块提前完成去库存，四季度有望继续环比改善，调味品龙头低基数下 增长加速，液态奶降幅收窄，零食公司备战春节旺季。中期来看，乳制品、饮料、 榨菜等细分龙头率先走出调整，未来 1-2 年有望盈利上修。 最新观点 核心公司跟踪：汾酒 25 年巩固期稳定为主，中炬无偿受让厨邦少数股权 山西汾酒： 汾酒 2024 年度经销商大会总结了在汾酒复兴纲领实施的第一阶段的高质量发展成效。此外，青 26 新品上市，公司还提出了四轮驱动。 25 年巩固期稳定为主，预计增长目标有望回归合理。 中炬高新： 阳西美味鲜无偿受让朗天慧德持有的厨邦公司 20% 股权，本次股权转让完成后，厨邦公司成为中炬 的全资孙公司，厨邦公司 20% 股权对应的平均少数股东损益对公司净利润的平均贡献率为 6.31% 。 ...