Core Points - The article discusses the acquisition of Nexperia, a Dutch semiconductor company, by China's Wingtech Technology, highlighting the significant investment and subsequent challenges faced due to geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Wingtech Technology invested over 30 billion RMB to acquire 100% of Nexperia, which has become a leading player in the semiconductor industry, delivering over 90 billion products annually [1] - Under Wingtech's management, Nexperia's revenue peaked at 2.36 billion euros in 2022, with a gross margin increase from 25% in 2020 to 42.4% in 2022, achieving a "zero-debt" status by October 2024 [1] Company Summary - Nexperia is recognized as a global IDM semiconductor company, leading in the production of diodes and transistors, and ranking second in logic chips [1] - Wingtech Technology, previously the largest smartphone ODM manufacturer, faced a sudden asset freeze by the Dutch government citing "national security" concerns, impacting its operational control over Nexperia [1][2] - The Chinese semiconductor industry association condemned the Dutch government's actions as discriminatory and an abuse of the "national security" concept [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, Buy and Hold [1] - Silver: ★★, Stabilize and Go Long [1] - Copper: ★★, Long - term Hold [1] - Zinc: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Lead: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Tin: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Nickel: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, Wide - range Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term safe - haven sentiment is strong, and long - term strategic allocation value remains due to factors like interest - rate cuts, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1] - Silver: Short - term volatility is large, but long - term demand is supported by global policy stimulus, with low inventory and high price sensitivity [1] - Copper: Despite short - term pressure, it is bullish in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortage and the explosion of green copper demand [1] - Zinc: Domestic demand is weak during the peak season, and it is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term [1] - Lead: With the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters and the arrival of imported lead, and doubts about the peak - season consumption of downstream enterprises, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic smelters are under maintenance, and the peak - season demand remains to be observed, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Aluminum: The cost of alumina is falling, inventory is accumulating, and although there is some support from the terminal peak season, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic supply is sufficient, inventory is accumulating, and downstream stainless steel is also piling up, so the price is falling under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing, and demand from downstream industries provides support for the price [1] - Polysilicon: Supported by strong policy expectations, despite the contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, with both increasing, and the continuous decline of warehouse receipts supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold prices are strong due to the deadlock in Sino - US relations, the US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] - **Basic Logic**: Sino - US relations are at a standstill, the US government is shut down, UK employment data is poor, and gold is expected to be in a long - term bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For domestic gold, maintain a long - position thinking both in the short and long - term. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating at a high level [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, downstream demand is affected by the high price, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Protect short - term long positions with moving stop - profits. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Focus on the range of 82,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices are under pressure, and London zinc has fallen nearly 2% [8][9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, production is expected to increase, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and overseas inventory is at a low level [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold previous short positions cautiously, and consider selling hedging at high prices. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure in the rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [11][12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [15][16] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas disturbances to nickel ore supply are weakening, domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the peak - season consumption of downstream stainless steel is uncertain [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, with the late - session gain narrowing [19][20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate from Chile to China has decreased, the domestic supply is increasing, overseas supply is expected to recover in November, demand from the lithium - battery and cathode sectors is strong, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Mainly observe, and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,500 yuan/ton for 2601 [22]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing intervention by the Dutch government in the operations of Anshi Semiconductor, a core subsidiary of Wentai Technology, has escalated, leading to significant market repercussions and raising concerns about the integration and governance of the company [1][4][6]. Company Summary - Wentai Technology's stock price has experienced a consecutive two-day drop limit, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 10 billion yuan [2]. - The core issue revolves around Anshi Semiconductor, which Wentai Technology fully acquired in 2020, and the subsequent governance changes that have occurred since then [3][4]. - Anshi Semiconductor has shown strong financial performance, with revenue reaching a historical peak of 2.36 billion euros in 2022 and a gross margin increase from 25% in 2020 to 42.4% in 2022 [6]. Management Changes - Recent management changes at Wentai Technology included the appointment of several executives with backgrounds in Anshi Semiconductor, including the new chairman Yang Mu, who has been positioned to lead the company through its strategic focus on semiconductor business [6]. Legal and Regulatory Context - The Dutch court's intervention has temporarily restricted Wentai Technology's control over Anshi Semiconductor, raising concerns about the implications of geopolitical factors on foreign investments in the semiconductor sector [4][7]. - The situation has prompted discussions about the potential for a "Dutch model" of intervention that could increase uncertainty for Chinese investments in European semiconductor assets [7]. Industry Implications - The incident signals a broader concern for the semiconductor industry regarding the stability of cross-border mergers and acquisitions, particularly in light of increasing scrutiny and regulatory challenges faced by foreign investors in Europe [7].

Group 1 - India has reopened its embassy in Kabul and the Taliban will send diplomats to New Delhi, marking a significant diplomatic shift [1][16] - Several countries, including China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey, have established embassies in Kabul, with Russia being the only country to officially recognize the Taliban government [2] - Tensions have escalated between the Taliban and Pakistan's military, indicating a shift in regional dynamics following India's re-establishment of relations with Afghanistan [3][4] Group 2 - Historically, India has maintained a complex relationship with Afghanistan, supporting the US-backed government during the Taliban's previous rule and investing approximately $3 billion in aid over two decades [11][13] - The relationship between India and Afghanistan has evolved, with India recognizing the Taliban's control and seeking to engage diplomatically [16][21] - The Chabahar port project is a key focus for India, aimed at establishing a trade route to Central Asia without relying on Pakistan, which has historically controlled trade access to Afghanistan [22][24][26] Group 3 - The Chabahar port project, signed in 2016, involves a trilateral agreement between India, Iran, and Afghanistan, allowing India to operate the port despite US sanctions on Iran [27][32] - The project is crucial for India's strategy to enhance its influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia, especially as US sanctions on the port are set to take effect [35][37] - The geopolitical landscape in Central Asia is shifting, with various countries vying for influence and access to the region's rich resources [40][41][43]

闻泰科技（SH600745，股价37.65元，市值468.60亿元）核心子公司——安世半导体遭遇荷兰当地政府 干预事件持续升级。 10月13日，外交部发言人在例行记者会上就此回应；10月14日，中国半导体行业协会官微发布声明声援 闻泰科技；10月14日，安世半导体官网发布声明称，4日，中国商务部发布出口管制通知，禁止公司及 其分包商出口在中国制造的特定成品和组件。 去年底以来，闻泰科技持续推进出售集成业务资产，并全面聚焦半导体业务。而在今年七八月份，公司 管理层刚刚经历了一轮"换血"，来自安世半导体的多名管理层进入闻泰科技决策层，其中包括现任董事 长杨沐。 颇具戏剧性的是，早在2022年11月，闻泰科技实控人张学政还曾与安世半导体多位外籍高管共同阐述发 展战略。而如今，其中一位当时参与的外籍高管，却成为此次"发难"的当事人之一。 截至10月14日收盘，闻泰科技股价连续两日跌停，市值蒸发超百亿元。 合作伙伴时隔三年反目 此次风波的核心正是安世半导体。2019年，闻泰科技先取得对安世半导体的控制权；至2020年，进一步 完成剩余股权的收购，最终实现对安世半导体100%控股。 随后，闻泰科技逐步介入安世半导体的治理 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wentech Technology's core asset, Anshi Semiconductor, faces severe control issues due to unprecedented administrative and judicial measures from the Netherlands, leading to significant market volatility and a loss of over 10 billion yuan in market value within two days [2][16]. Group 1: Control Changes - Anshi Semiconductor is experiencing a "black swan" event that threatens its control structure, marking the first time since Wentech's acquisition of the company that its control is directly challenged [3]. - The Chinese CEO of Anshi, Zhang Xuezheng, has been temporarily suspended, and a foreign individual will be appointed to lead the company, effectively removing core decision-making power from Wentech [3][11]. - Anshi and its global subsidiaries are under a one-year operational freeze, preventing any adjustments to assets, intellectual property, or personnel [3][11]. Group 2: Political and Legal Context - Wentech has publicly condemned the Dutch government's actions as excessive interference based on geopolitical bias rather than factual risk assessment [4][8]. - The Dutch government invoked the 1952 Materials Supply Act, a rare legal tool, citing governance deficiencies within Anshi that pose risks to the economic security of the Netherlands and Europe [11][12]. - The timing of the Dutch government's actions coincides with the EU's signing of the Semiconductor Alliance Declaration, indicating a strategic response to geopolitical tensions in the semiconductor industry [12][13]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Anshi Semiconductor is a key player in the European automotive chip supply chain, with significant revenue contributions to Wentech's semiconductor business, making the control issue critical for the company's transformation strategy [13][14]. - Wentech is currently in a pivotal transition phase, divesting from traditional mobile product integration to focus entirely on semiconductor operations, making the stability of Anshi's control vital for future profitability [14][16]. - The company has faced geopolitical challenges before, having previously divested its ODM business to mitigate risks from U.S. sanctions, highlighting the ongoing pressures in the semiconductor sector [15][16].

2025.10. 14 本文字数：3545，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 彭海斌、郑栩彤 "荷兰政府及相关高管的最终目标，可能是让安世脱离闻泰控制权，但他们的目的不会得逞。"闻泰 科技代理总裁沈新佳在10月12日晚间的投资者说明会上表示。 中国国庆期间，荷兰政府冻结闻泰科技的半导体资产。这一突发事件是对闻泰科技转型的重击。此 前，它已经卖掉毛利微薄的消费电子代工业务，准备依托安世来壮大利润更好的半导体业务。现在， 美好的愿景被击碎。闻泰科技的半导体业务岌岌可危之际，该公司积极应诉，并寻求多方救济。 与此同时，闻泰控股股东所投资的本土晶圆制造也许到了扛起重担的时候。闻泰科技也在探索一种可 能性：依靠中国市场和产业布局，实现本土产业链的闭环。 如何应对双重打击 "（荷兰）经济部行政令，是以国家安全、经济安全为由。"沈新佳透露，闻泰科技已聘请知名国际 行政法和诉讼律师，将对荷兰政府的行政令在法律适用和程序上提起行政复议和诉讼。 第二重打击，来自安世的外籍高管们。 安世的首席法务官、首席财务官以及首席运营官等部分外籍高管以严格执行行政令为名，自行组成了 危机管理委员会管理公司。10月1日，这些高管向荷兰阿姆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch government has taken control of Nexperia, a semiconductor manufacturer crucial for the European tech supply chain, due to serious governance issues, as stated by the Ministry of Economic Affairs [2][3]. Group 1: Government Intervention - The intervention was executed under the rarely used Goods Availability Act, allowing the government to take control of private enterprises in emergencies to ensure the stability of critical goods supply [2]. - The decision was made on September 30, with the government citing threats to the continuity of critical technology knowledge and capabilities in the Netherlands and Europe [2]. Group 2: Management Changes - Following the takeover, Wingtech Technology's chairman, Zhang Xuezheng, was suspended from his role as CEO of Nexperia without a court hearing [3]. - Three foreign executives initiated the request for an investigation and emergency measures against the company, leading to immediate court actions [3][4]. Group 3: Court Rulings - The court ruled to suspend Zhang's positions and appointed an independent foreign individual to manage Nexperia's operations, effectively stripping Wingtech of its control over the company [5]. - The court's decision resulted in Wingtech temporarily losing governance rights over Nexperia, although its economic rights remain intact [5]. Group 4: Financial Impact - Following the intervention announcement, Wingtech's stock dropped approximately 10% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [8]. - Nexperia reported a peak revenue of €2.36 billion (approximately 195 billion RMB) in 2022, with a gross margin increase from 25% in 2020 to 42.4% in 2022 [8]. Group 5: Product Development and Market Position - Nexperia is focusing on developing over 200 analog chips, particularly in automotive and AI applications, with significant advancements in power products [9]. - The company has successfully entered the supply chain of leading domestic electric vehicle manufacturers with new MOS products expected to start mass production in October [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It gives individual views on various energy and chemical products, mostly indicating a "volatile" outlook for each product. 2. Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Prices showed a slight rebound on Monday. WTI 11 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $59.49 per barrel, a 1.00% increase; Brent 12 - month contract closed up $0.59 to $63.32 per barrel, a 0.94% increase; SC2511 closed at 452.7 yuan per barrel, up 1.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.27% increase. With the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases, and current macro - risk disturbances, oil prices are expected to be mainly volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong. Under the pressure of new tariffs, the absolute prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. There is still some construction rush expectation after the holiday, but the previous significant increase in asphalt production may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are estimated to be less than 50%. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high polyester start - up rate and limited room for further increase, and a loose supply pattern of TA and EG, prices will follow crude oil prices in the short term [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on Monday. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year. With normal rubber tapping in major production areas, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - **Methanol**: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, the subsequent arrival volume of methanol may decline. Although the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction has a negative impact on chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefin products. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on methanol and short on polyolefins, as well as the positive spread strategy between months [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices of polyolefins are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain high, and although there is still support for downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline. The decline in crude oil prices due to the re - escalation of Sino - US trade friction also affects polyolefin prices [5][6]. - **PVC**: The prices of PVC in East, North, and South China markets showed a weak adjustment on Monday. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy and the escalation of Sino - US trade friction. With high inventory pressure, PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rebounded slightly. The cease - fire agreement in the Middle East and OPEC+ production increases are the main influencing factors. OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand. Crude oil prices are expected to be volatile [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur market is relatively strong. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract declined. There is construction rush expectation after the holiday, but previous production increases may suppress prices. Under tariff pressure, prices are expected to be volatile and weak with a smaller decline [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester chain prices are weakly volatile. Sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are low. Some MEG devices have maintenance and restart operations. With a high start - up rate and loose supply, prices follow crude oil prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber contract prices declined. China's rubber imports increased in 2025. With normal tapping, high tire inventory, and weak demand due to tariffs, prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5]. - **Methanol**: Affected by US sanctions on Iranian shipping, arrival volume may decline. Although trade friction affects chemical product valuations, methanol may perform better than downstream olefins. Strategies such as long methanol and short polyolefins are recommended [5]. - **Polyolefins**: Prices are expected to be weak. Short - term production remains high, downstream order marginal increase declines, and crude oil price decline affects polyolefins [5][6]. - **PVC**: PVC market prices are weakly adjusted. Supply is high, demand slows down, and exports are affected. With high inventory, prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 13, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the changes and historical quantiles of basis rates. It also explains the calculation methods and data sources of some prices [7]. 3.3 Market News - Trump first proposed to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, then said the "substantial tariff increase" might not be implemented, and the US vice - president signaled willingness to negotiate. The market's selling is restricted by the negotiation intention, and the short - term outlook depends on the outcome of trade negotiations [10]. - OPEC+ data shows that Russia's oil production in September increased to 9.321 million barrels per day, still below the quota. OPEC+ aims to increase production by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, equivalent to about 2.5% of global oil demand [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the historical closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., and provides data on the basis between different benchmarks for some products [28][29][30] - **4.3 Inter - contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][45][46] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [59][60][61] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and LLDPE [68][70][72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director and Energy and Chemical Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, she has won multiple "Excellent Analyst" awards and led the team to win industry service awards. She has more than ten years of experience in the futures derivatives market [74]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst of crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from the University of Wisconsin - Madison, she has won multiple industry analyst awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [75]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree in finance, she has won multiple analyst awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With a master's degree from China University of Petroleum (East China), he has years of experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and hold (★★★) [1] - Silver: Stabilize and go long (★★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term hold (★★) [1] - Zinc: Short - term rebound with limited upside, long - term sell on rallies (★) [1] - Lead: Under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Under pressure (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rebound (★★) [1] - Nickel: Under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Pullback (★) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range oscillation (★) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions such as unstable G2 relations, chaotic situations in Japan and France, and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a resurgence of short - term risk - aversion sentiment, making gold and silver good investment choices both in the short and long term [1][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long run due to factors like copper concentrate shortages and the explosion of green copper demand, despite short - term market fluctuations [1][7] - Zinc supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so it is a short - side configuration in the long term, with limited short - term upside [1][10] - Aluminum prices are expected to rebound in the short term, although facing inventory pressure [1][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [1][18] - Lithium carbonate fundamentals are in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][22] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical chaos causes risk - aversion sentiment to heat up, leading to a sharp rise in gold and silver prices [2] - **Basic Logic**: Unresolved Sino - US relations, political instability in Japan and France, long - term positive factors for gold such as global monetary easing and dollar credit decline, and a continuous supply shortage of silver [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long term; for silver, pay attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider long - term holding [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper gaps up and rises, and London copper rises by over 4% [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply concerns intensify due to mine accidents and production slowdowns. Production is expected to decline, and downstream demand is strong in green industries [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Use trailing stops for short - term long positions. Be optimistic about copper in the long run and focus on specific price ranges [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fall under pressure, and London zinc fluctuates around the 3000 mark [9] - **Industrial Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, but demand is weak. There is a risk of a soft squeeze on London zinc inventory [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term rebound with limited upside. Sell - hedge and go short on rallies in the long term, and focus on specific price ranges [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [12] - **Industrial Logic**: There is an inventory build - up in electrolytic aluminum, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, pay attention to downstream processing enterprise operations, and focus on specific price ranges [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices fall under pressure, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16] - **Industrial Logic**: Nickel supply is sufficient, and stainless steel demand is uncertain during the peak season [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, pay attention to downstream consumption improvement, and focus on specific price ranges [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower and fluctuates at a low level throughout the day [20] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Domestic production hits a new high, and demand remains firm. Social inventory may continue to decline [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see, and focus on the price range of 2601 [22]