当"小非农"与"大非农"出现截然相反的走势时，投资者面临一个棘手问题：究竟该相信谁？ 这几天公布的数据显示，美国6月就业数据出现罕见分化，官方与私营部门数据呈现截然不同的景象。 据美国劳工统计局数据，6月非农就业岗位增加14.7万个，超出市场预期的10.6万个，失业率从5月的 4.2%降至4.1%。 但ADP就业报告显示，私营部门就业岗位减少3.3万个，创下自2023年3月以来的首次负增长，预期值 9.8万人。而这不仅是数量级的差异，更是方向性的分歧。 花旗评价称，这种背离并非统计异常，而可能揭示了美国就业市场的内在分化。 据CNBC最新分析， 这一分化主要源于政府部门招聘激增。6月政府部门新增就业7.3万个，占当月非农 就业总增长的近一半。而ADP报告仅统计私营部门就业，不包括政府岗位。 美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，在6月非农就业中，政府部门新增就业显著增长；私营部门就业增长 疲软，创下去年十月以来的最低增幅： 美国政府部门新增就业7.3万个 花旗银行分析师在最新报告中指出，尽管失业率意外下降，但这主要归因于劳动参与率连续第二个月下 滑，而非就业市场的真正改善。6月劳动参与率从5月的62.4%回落至62. ...

（原标题：中年再就业） 低谷 王勇大学毕业后进入一家房企工作，从未跳过槽。2022年，他所在的房企出现公开债务违约。王勇回 忆，公司先后进行了三次裁员，到2022年底，他的部门仅剩他一人。 经济观察报 记者 田国宝 王勇是一位45岁的资深地产从业者，从事工程预算工作多年，一路从普通员工晋升至部门负责人。2021 年底以来，房地产行业进入深度调整阶段，王勇所在房企的开发业务停滞，他最终被裁员。 被裁员后，王勇本不打算继续找工作。一方面，他的年龄在职场中缺乏竞争力；另一方面，房地产行业 规模缩减，岗位需求大幅减少。但在今年6月，他意外受邀加入一家城投公司，担任相关部门负责人。 与继续从事本行业的王勇不同，王瑾彻底告别了她奋斗七年的金融行业。2025年，她加入一家国际保健 品公司，以代理商身份负责产品销售。王瑾不后悔离开金融行业，相比之下，她更喜欢现在的工作。 近年来，像王勇和王瑾这样失去工作后再就业的中年人并不少见。他们或凭借专业能力重获雇主认可， 或通过不断尝试找到热爱的领域，走出人生低谷。 2023年初，许多房企判断房地产市场将进入上行期。王勇的老板让他物色优秀人才，以备业务恢复。不 过，这种乐观预期并未持续 ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业超预期韧性，美联储更为从容 ——6 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国新增非农就业人数超预期回升，失业率回落，时薪环比增速回落。整体而 言，美国就业的韧性超预期，加之时薪环比增速的回落指向通胀压力可控，综合之下，美联储 后续决策能更加从容。往前看，短期内，美国就业的韧性表现让美联储仍有充足空间等待，7 月 继续维持"按兵不动"概率较高；中期，"对等关税"暂停期满在即，实质的关税落地规模，及 其对经济的影响仍是决定后续货币政策的关键。 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 就业超预期韧性，美联储更为从容 2] ——6 月美国非农就业数据点评 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 7 月 3 日，美国劳工统计局公布 2025 年 6 月的非农就业数据：202 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 7 月 4 日 证券研究报告 怎么看美国 6 月非农就业数据 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈嘉荔 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003674 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 根据美国劳工部 7 月 3 日公布数据1，6 月新增非农 14.7 万人，高于预期的 10.6 万人。失业率回落至 4.1%， 低于预期的 4.3%和前值 4.2%。前两月数据共上修 1.6 万人。简单来看，美国就业市场短期仍延续粘性特征。 6 月新增非农 14.7 万人 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.04 | 美国非农：超预期背后仍有隐忧 | [Table_Authors] | 王宇晴(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38676666 | | 2025 年 6 月美国非农数据点评 | 登记编号 | S0880525040119 | | 本报告导读： | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 6 月美国新增非农就业超预期回升，失业率回落，市场降息预期有所降温。不过，私 | | 021-38676666 | | 人部门新增就业的走弱、劳动参与率的回落、工作时长和工资环比增速的放缓反映 | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | | 出就业市场仍处于放缓趋势。我们认为，当前美国就业市场尚未明显失速，关税对 | | | | 通胀的影响仍有待观察，美联储短期内难以降息。 | | | 投资要点： 风险提示：就业市场非线性恶化 题 证 券 [Table_Summary] 非农数据：哪些好消息？亮点一：6 月新增非农就业超预期回升。6 月美国新增非农就业为 14.7 万人，较 5 月（14.4 万）有所增加。连 续三个月平均新 ...

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant divergence in U.S. employment data for June, with government job growth contrasting sharply with private sector job losses, leading to confusion among investors about which data to trust [1][2][3] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1] - The ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with a forecast of 98,000 jobs added [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in government jobs, particularly in state and local education sectors, accounted for 73,000 new jobs, nearly half of the total non-farm job growth for the month [4] - Private sector job growth was weak, with only 74,000 jobs added, and the goods-producing sector saw a net gain of just 6,000 jobs, with construction adding 15,000 jobs and manufacturing losing 7,000 jobs [4] - The healthcare and social assistance sector contributed significantly to private sector job growth, adding 59,000 jobs [4] Group 3 - Analysts from Citigroup noted that the apparent strength in employment data may be overstated, as both household and establishment surveys indicate signs of hiring slowdown [3][5] - The unexpected drop in the unemployment rate is attributed to a decline in the labor force participation rate, which fell from 62.4% to 62.3%, reflecting a decrease in labor supply [2] - The report indicated a reduction of 603,000 jobs in household surveys over the past two months, which typically would lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, but a larger decrease in the labor force size resulted in a lower unemployment rate [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]

当地时间7月3日公布的美国6月新增非农就业和失业率均超预期强劲，显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性， 但前一日公布的有"小非农"之称的美国ADP就业人数则"爆冷转负"减少3.3万人，录得2023年3月以来的 最大降幅，使得市场对美联储降息预期再度出现摇摆。 对于两份天差地别的美国就业报告，接受新华财经采访的分析师多数认为，美国就业市场结构正逐步恶 化，政府部门占新增非农就业人数一半，私人部门就业人数较上个月减少了6.3万，劳动力市场整体趋 弱。但6月非农就业数据可以让美联储进一步观察夏季关税对通胀的影响，预计美联储将在9月的议息会 议上再度降息。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园认为，两者巨大的差异背后主要有两方面原因，一是，ADP就业调查只能覆 盖约17%的就业岗位，且样本中有79%是大中型企业；而非农就业调查可以覆盖80%左右的就业岗位。 二是，关税对大中型企业的影响更大，对小企业的影响要小很多，原因在于小企业通常很少参与国际贸 易。实际上，ADP与非农就业的背离幅度从3月之后开始加深，这也与关税升级的时间相一致。 美联储降息预期反复摇摆 近期美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼均表示支持7月降息后，市场对美联储降息时点提前至7月的押注 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the articles is that the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data for June significantly impacted the gold market, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices due to stronger-than-expected employment figures and a decrease in the unemployment rate [1][2] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, indicating a resilient labor market [1] - Following the data release, the gold price dropped nearly 1%, falling from around $3,350 to approximately $3,310, while COMEX gold futures also experienced a decline of 0.68% [1] Group 2 - The reaction in the interest rate futures market was pronounced, with the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in July rising from 76.7% to 93.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut plummeted from 23.3% to 6.7% [2] - The COMEX gold futures positioning data revealed that large institutional investors had begun to reduce their long positions before the non-farm data was released, with a total reduction of over 6,000 contracts [3] - This reduction in long positions reflects a shift in market sentiment, as strong non-farm data diminished expectations for rapid rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, decreasing the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold [3]