Economic Situation - The GDP in the first quarter experienced slight declines due to trade impacts, while private domestic final purchases grew by 2.5% [2][3] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in May, with wage growth slowing but still exceeding inflation [2][3] Inflation Situation - The overall PCE and core PCE indicators were slightly above the 2% target, with short-term inflation expectations rising due to tariffs, but long-term expectations remain aligned with the target [4] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% and continues to reduce its balance sheet; the impact of tariffs will depend on their final levels, and the Fed will balance employment and inflation targets while waiting for more data before adjusting policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's goals face balanced risks, necessitating simultaneous attention to both employment and inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Employment - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the importance of monitoring employment trends as part of its dual mandate [1] Inflation - Inflation remains a critical area of focus for the Federal Reserve, indicating that it is a key component of their economic assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that the final direction of trade policy is currently uncertain, and its potential impact on prices and employment remains unclear [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Trade Policy Uncertainty** - There is no definitive conclusion on the future trajectory of trade policy [1] - **Impact on Prices and Employment** - The effects of trade policy on pricing and employment levels are not yet understood [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly for low-priced consumer goods and imported durable goods due to ongoing uncertainties and potential economic risks [5]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index rebounded significantly in June, reaching 60.5, up 15.9% from May's 52.2, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8][9]. - Retail sales in May 2025 were $715.42 billion, a 0.9% month-over-month decline, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [9]. - Inflation data showed a mild increase in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations, but long-term inflation risks remain [11][13]. - Employment data showed a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, but revisions indicated a slowdown in job growth [15][19]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index rebounded in June, reflecting a recovery from previous declines, with inflation expectations decreasing from 6.6% to 5.1% [8]. - Retail sales data for May showed a significant decline, particularly in durable goods, as the demand normalized following a previous surge [9]. - Inflation data indicated a mild increase, with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, but long-term inflation concerns persist due to potential tariff impacts [11][13]. - Employment data showed a stable job market, but with signs of sectoral divergence, particularly in manufacturing and services [15][17]. Essential Consumption - Beverage and tobacco sectors outperformed the market, with beverage sales showing resilience, while alcoholic beverages and dairy products continued to underperform [2][34]. - Alcoholic beverage retail sales in April were $5.63 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, but overall sales volume continued to decline [2][29]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a stable but lackluster performance [34]. - Beverage shipments reached $11.97 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, showcasing strong demand in essential categories [34]. Optional Consumption - The restaurant sector showed resilience with retail sales of $97.36 billion in May, a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, but a month-over-month decline of 0.9% [39]. - Department store sales in May were $76.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, but a continued weakening trend [42]. - Apparel retail sales reached $26.18 billion in May, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, but a decline in momentum due to the end of pre-tariff purchasing [44]. Market Performance - The consumer sector saw a broad rally in May, with significant gains in essential and discretionary categories, although valuations remain at historical highs [4]. - The consumer discretionary ETF saw a net inflow of $553 million, while the essential consumer ETF had a net inflow of $522 million, indicating investor interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a cautious approach towards the consumer sector, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic growth [5].

肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 而美国劳工统计局的就业数据也并不弱，2025年5月美国的失业率为4.2%，虽然和今年1月的4.0%略有 增长，但环比变化不大。和2020年4月14.8%的失业率峰值相比，美国的劳动就业数据自2021年8月以 来，始终没有突破5%的阈值。目前的月度就业数据基本维持在2017年2月至2020年2月之间的水平，而 同期美国的联邦基金利率水平分别位于0.5%~0.75%和1.5%~1.75%区间。所以在核心通胀水平已接近目 标区间，而就业数据并不弱的支撑下，美联储保持4.25%~4.5%利率水平不变的决议似乎站不住脚。 为了更清晰观察这一反常行为背后的逻辑，还需要从美国经济增长数据中去寻找答案。同样是美国经济 分析局（BEA）的统计（公布季度数据），2025年一季度，美国国内生产总值的增速为-0.2%，而去年 四季度该数据还为2.4%。从2016年一季度至今，美国经济分析局共录得四次经济负增长，分别是2020 年一季度的-5.5%和当年二季度的-28.1%（但随即三季度变为正增长35.2%）、2022年一季度的-1.0%以 及本次2025年一季度-0.2%。 从成因 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth time since January, signaling a cautious approach amid mixed economic indicators [1][3] - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, indicating inflationary pressures, while private sector employment numbers fell significantly below expectations, suggesting a cooling job market [3][4] - Economists are speculating that the Fed may need to lower interest rates twice this year, with the first potential cut in September, due to underlying weaknesses in the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector [3][4] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the relationship between inflation and employment, as these factors will directly influence the timing and magnitude of any future interest rate cuts by the Fed [4] - The impact of fluctuating tariff policies and rising oil prices on supply chains and corporate costs needs to be analyzed, as these factors could further affect inflation [4][5] - In the context of anticipated interest rate cuts, sectors such as financials and growth stocks may present investment opportunities, warranting further research into fundamentally sound and reasonably valued stocks [5]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：关税对出口和就业造成了压力。 ...

从市场预期来看，美联储在本次会议上大概率维持"按兵不动"：芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，美联储 在本周会议上降息的概率微乎其微，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%的概率接近100%。 一致预期下，全球投资者更关注的是美联储后续货币政策路径如何演绎，即将公布的最新季度经济展望 和利率点阵图将给出指引。在去年12月与今年3月公布的利率点阵图中，美联储官员普遍预计今年将降 息两次。当前，市场对美联储自9月起降息的押注不断升温。 美联储的降息步调，在实现充分就业和维持物价稳定的双重使命之间博弈，"按兵不动"的底气，或因为 二者风险处于均衡水平。 通胀方面，市场对美国贸易政策引起通胀高升忧心忡忡，但目前为止，其带来的影响仍未完全显现。当 地时间6月11日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国5月CPI同比增长2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%；环比 增长0.1%，低于预期的0.2%。剔除食品和能源成本后，5月核心CPI同比上涨2.8%，保持在2021年3月以 来的最低水平，低于预期的2.9%。 就业方面，美国劳工部数据显示，美国5月就业数据好于预期，5月新增非农就业13.9万人，高于市场预 期的12.6万人。失业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's initiatives to enhance and improve people's livelihoods, focusing on addressing urgent public concerns and promoting equitable, balanced, inclusive, and accessible social services [11]. Group 1: Enhancing Social Security Fairness - The government aims to expand social security coverage by removing household registration restrictions for participating in social insurance at the place of employment [12]. - There will be a focus on improving the social insurance system for flexible employment workers, migrant workers, and new employment forms [12]. - Measures include increasing the minimum wage standard and providing direct birth insurance benefits to insured individuals in certain regions [5][12]. Group 2: Improving Basic Public Services Equitably - The government plans to enhance the quality and efficiency of basic public services by establishing clear standards and evaluation methods [14]. - There will be a push for public services to be provided based on the place of residence, ensuring equal rights for agricultural migrants [15]. - Support will be given to rural areas in providing flexible basic public services [14]. Group 3: Expanding Basic Livelihood Services Inclusively - The government will implement an action plan to improve the quality of basic education, including the construction of over 1,000 high-quality ordinary high schools [16]. - There will be a focus on sharing high-quality medical resources and enhancing healthcare services at the community level [17]. - Initiatives will be taken to develop affordable elderly care and childcare services, aiming for 80% community coverage in major cities [18]. Group 4: Promoting Community Services - The article emphasizes the importance of community-based services, integrating various convenience services to enhance accessibility for residents [19]. - There will be a focus on improving the quality of diverse life services, including sports and cultural activities [19]. - The government encourages the use of community spaces for social services, allowing for the establishment of service points in residential areas [19]. Group 5: Ensuring Inclusive Development - Policies will be implemented to prioritize children's welfare and support youth development in various aspects of life [20]. - The government aims to enhance support for families, including improving living conditions for the elderly and disabled [20]. - There will be a focus on creating a supportive environment for the elderly to participate in society and promoting intergenerational assistance [20]. Group 6: Implementation Measures - The article outlines the need for coordinated efforts across various government levels to ensure the effective implementation of these policies [21]. - Financial support will be allocated to enhance basic public services and ensure social equity [21]. - The government will establish a clear list of social welfare projects to monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]