原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 专心,专业,专为您 关注微信公众号 聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 69.11 | 67.11 | 2.00 | 2.98% | ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员： ...

综合来看，马来西亚增税以精准施策、保障基本生活、支持发展型经济为目标，同时借助逐步扩容构建 更稳固的税收体系，旨在重构国家财政平衡，实现长期可持续发展。这次销售与服务税改革，既能维持 基本政府运转，又能稳步推进财政改革，规模相对温和，试图在温和调整与渐进式改革之间找到平衡。 马来西亚政府宣称，不会对普通民众生活必需品增税，但会让能力强者多缴税，以应对未来风险压力。 然而，能否真正抵御外部冲击、提升财政韧性，将取决于全球经济环境与税收合规能力。 （文章来源：经济日报） 为减少税改对中小企业的影响，政府专门出台了配套措施：年租金收入低于50万林吉特（约合11.79万 美元）的中小企业豁免租赁服务税；年营收不超过150万林吉特（约合35.37万美元）的企业可获得相应 补贴或豁免。这样既能拓宽税收来源，又能为微型及中小企业保留发展空间。此外，财政部设计了双重 排除机制，既避免重复征税，又让低收入及易受外部冲击的企业在年底前处于过渡期。企业若未及时制 定行动计划，将不会立即被罚款，而是延期处罚。 税收改革对消费市场产生了微妙影响。2024年启动高价值商品税后，部分消费者出现推迟购物、出境旅 购的趋势。部分高档轿车、奢侈 ...

半年度报告—铅 渊生珠而崖不枯 | [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | | | 铅：看涨 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 7 月 | 2 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★供应端 有 原生端，品位下滑和外部风险持续，下半年海外铅矿产量或有扰 动；国内原生冶炼产能利用率维持高企，进口矿边际趋紧，后续 TC 有下跌压力，冶炼利润或同步承压，炼厂存在有限的减产可 能性。再生端，下半年替换需求或在旺季下有阶段性改善，但废 电瓶仍将在大部分时间里维持紧缺；再生厂经营环境有所恶化， 今年回收商惜售力度加强、囤货时间提前，而新增再生产能对传 统产能在地域辐射和竞价上的挤占，下半年再生炼厂开工率或维 持高波动，但总体依然承压，此外需关注再生产能压缩的可能性。 色 ★需求端 金 属 需求端，全年终端需求或维持正增速。两轮车和汽车均面临需求 前置释放的问题，消费较为依赖政策推动，锂代铅潜移默化影响 消费格局，储能领域消费增速维持强劲表现，出口需求在比价压 制和反倾销影响下或继续承压。上半年需求表现偏弱，主要是初 端需 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (SH603993) is facing a temporary suspension of cobalt metal deliveries by its wholly-owned subsidiary IXM due to a force majeure event related to the extension of a cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][3] Group 1: Company Operations - IXM's business covers over 80 countries across Asia, Europe, South America, and North America, leveraging strategic synergies between trading and mining sectors [2] - In 2024, IXM is projected to complete a physical trading volume of 4 to 4.5 million tons, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.353 billion yuan [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum is the world's largest cobalt producer, expecting to produce 114,200 tons of cobalt in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for an additional three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels and to create conditions for future market regulation [3][4] - Since the initial ban in February, cobalt prices have risen significantly, from 162,500 yuan per ton on February 24 to 245,000 yuan per ton on July 2 [4][5] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, with an estimated output of 207,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.56% [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that continued restrictions on cobalt exports from the DRC may lead to a shift from a surplus to a potential shortage in the cobalt market by the early 2030s [5] - By 2025, China's refined cobalt production is expected to meet domestic consumption and export needs without creating excess inventory, with a projected output of 144,000 tons [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing strictness of bank account opening processes in response to risks such as telecom fraud and money laundering, leading to concerns about excessive restrictions on transaction limits and service quality [1] Group 1: Bank Evaluation - A survey was conducted in Zhuhai, where seven banks were evaluated on their account opening services, focusing on efficiency, compliance, fraud prevention, and service quality [1] - The evaluation revealed a significant disparity among the banks, with scores ranging from 55 to 95, indicating that some banks provided efficient and smooth services while others imposed excessive restrictions and lengthy processes [1] Group 2: Specific Bank Case Study - The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank's Zhuhai Jida branch was assessed on June 25, taking approximately 1 hour and 4 minutes to complete the account opening process [3] - During the process, the bank required the customer to provide various personal details and complete multiple forms, which contributed to the lengthy wait time [5] - The bank's system mandated the binding of at least two internet platforms during the account setup, which raised concerns about customer experience and service efficiency [7][8]

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：随着市场出现更多闲置产能，基本的供需平衡正在迅速发生变化。 ...

截至2025年7月1日，原油市场呈现多空交织态势。SC原油主力合约收报 499.4元/桶，较前日小幅上涨0.54%，盘中呈现探底回升走势。WTI与Brent 油价维持横向整理格局，分别持平于64.97和66.63美元/桶。值得注意的是 SC原油价差明显走强，SC-Brent价差环比扩大15%至3.1美元/桶，SC近远月 价差单日飙升30.7%至16.6元/桶，显示近端合约流动性溢价提升。 供需双向拉扯延续 油价维持弱势整理 一、日度市场总结 供应端呈现明显分化格局。OPEC+主要产油国持续释放增产动能，沙特6月 原油出口环比激增45万桶/日创一年新高至633万桶/日，哈萨克斯坦6月产 量环比增长7.5%至188万桶/日创历史纪录，俄罗斯7月黑海石油产品出口计 划环比增长22.3%至103.5万吨。但墨西哥产量下滑至1970年代末水平（目 前约160万桶/日，较峰值减少逾40%）引发美国炼油厂夏季供应担忧，该结 构性缺口推动美国得州原油产量回升至577万桶/日支撑区域平衡。 需求端季节性矛盾显现。北美夏季出行旺季推动炼厂开工率维持高位，EIA 周度数据显示美国商业原油库存加速去化1.5%，但山东独立炼厂6月30 ...

中国商报（记者 马嘉 文/图）"6·18"电商硝烟未散，众多品牌正休整以待下一轮鏖战。7月1日，在由中国香料香精化妆品工业协会、上海市奉贤区人民政府 主办的2025中国香妆品牌发展大会上，花王集团两位高管在接受中国商报记者采访时直言，不陷入行业"价格战"，坚守"高性能/合理价格"策略，并强调线 上与线下渠道平衡发展至关重要。 不陷入"价格战"希望以"高价值"突围 对于美妆品牌来说，选择不陷入"价格战"需要勇气。行业监测数据显示，超70%的美妆品牌在2024至2025年卷入"价格战"，其中有国际品牌在2024年累计发 起超过200场官方降价促销，部分单品折扣率高达50%。 花王（中国）研究开发中心总经理山崎律子表示："我们希望通过提供更高附加价值、价格合适的产品，满足年轻消费者的需求，让他们能够认可我们的品 牌，这也是我们在中国市场不断开发新产品的动力。" 花王集团化妆品研究开发中心总经理山崎律子。 花王（中国）化妆品事业总经理大仓诚一也表示："对于产品价格持续走低的现象，我们稍感忧虑，过度的价格竞争将损害行业的健康发展。当然，性价比 始终至关重要，这也是花王产品制造的基本原则。我们希望找到好的办法为消费者创造 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia has made a significant shift in its economic strategy, moving from a major investment in electric vehicle battery production with Chinese companies to seeking cooperation with the United States on rare earth elements within 48 hours, driven by the pressure of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [2][7][10] Investment and Economic Impact - The electric vehicle battery industrial park initiated by Chinese companies, including CATL, represents a total investment of $5.9 billion and is expected to create 8,000 jobs, marking the largest investment in Indonesia's renewable energy sector to date [3][5] - The industrial park is set to position Indonesia as the largest automotive battery production center in the ASEAN region [5] Tariff Pressure and Strategic Shift - Indonesia's government is responding to a 32% tariff imposed by the U.S., which significantly impacts its export-driven economy, prompting a need for urgent negotiations with the U.S. [10][11] - The Indonesian government is leveraging its rare earth reserves, estimated at 2.8 million tons, to negotiate tariff reductions with the U.S. [15] Challenges in Rare Earth Cooperation - Despite having substantial rare earth reserves, Indonesia lacks a complete refining system, which complicates its ability to effectively collaborate with the U.S. on rare earth production [21][23] - The U.S. also faces challenges, as it has limited production capabilities and relies heavily on China for refined materials, indicating that both countries may struggle to establish a successful partnership [21][23] Historical Context and Diplomatic Relations - The article highlights the risks of small countries like Indonesia attempting to balance relations between larger powers, as seen in past instances with Vietnam and the U.S. [25][31] - The narrative suggests that Indonesia's recent actions may lead to further demands from the U.S., as showing weakness in negotiations often results in harsher terms [31][34]