Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source, and the trend depends on Sino - US trade relations and supply - side variables [3]. - The palm oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high near - term production [10]. - The sugar market is likely to see a price decline in the future, considering increased import supply, high import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area [12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, as the Sino - US economic and trade agreement is not finalized, downstream consumption is weak, and the basis is strengthening [15]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the spot price in the peak season is underperforming. The near - month contract may see short - selling, while the mid - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. - The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured due to policy intervention. There are different trading opportunities in the near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meadow - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Tuesday night. Sino - US trade negotiations did not benefit US soybean exports, and good weather in North America also put pressure on prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly, and the transaction volume increased. Last week, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.213 million tons are expected [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is recommended to go long at low cost intervals and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows a decline in June, while production increased in July. The government plans to increase the palm oil replanting project budget from 2026 to 2030 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is supported by fundamentals but has limited upside. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter, but it should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly oscillating on Tuesday. Spot prices in different regions were stable. As of the end of July, sugar sales and inventory data in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is likely to decline in the future due to increased import supply and expected increase in planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly oscillating on Tuesday. The US cotton growth data showed good conditions [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term due to the unfinalized Sino - US agreement and weak downstream consumption [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Domestic egg prices mainly declined, with sufficient supply and weak demand [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market has a large supply. Near - month contracts may see short - selling, and mid - term short - selling after a rebound is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured. Different trading opportunities exist in near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22].

Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 9064 yuan/ton, up nearly 3%, surpassing the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1] - However, the night session saw a decline, bringing prices back below 9000 yuan/ton [1] - The strong performance was attributed to rising production costs and the impact of typhoon weather on import arrivals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Expectations for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue increasing in July, projected to reach 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of over 10% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports showed growth in May and June, with biodiesel consumption exceeding 1 million tons per month since February [2] - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy by 2026 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by nearly 3 million tons [2] Group 3: Tariff Changes and Import Trends - The U.S. reduced the tariff rate on Malaysian palm oil from 25% to 19%, while the EU lowered tariffs by 20-40% [3] - India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% in July to 858,000 tons due to previous price increases, but there remains a demand for stocking ahead of the Diwali festival [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic palm oil commercial inventory as of August 1 was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) month-on-month [3] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil rose to 9291.27 yuan/ton, ending a three-day decline [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The palm oil market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to the upcoming MPOB report [4][5] - The 2509 contract may face downward pressure due to ample domestic inventory and supply, while the 2601 contract is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend driven by seasonal demand and biodiesel policies [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term trend of palm oil remains unchanged despite short - term corrections. In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range. There are multiple factors affecting the market, including policies, production, and exports. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [7][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section in the Report 3.1 Main Points - **Market situation**: In July, CBOT soybean fell below 1000, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [7]. - **External policies**: The public comment period for the biodiesel policy was extended to October 31; the US imposed a 19% tariff on palm oil from India and Malaysia; the EU gave zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons/year of Indonesian palm oil exports, and imposed a 3% tariff on the part exceeding 1 million tons [7]. - **Production areas**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14% and production increased by 7%, with the reference price of crude palm oil in August raised to 3864.12 Malaysian ringgit/ton. From May to June, Indonesia's exports increased by 50% and 43% respectively, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%, the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, and the D4 credit limit was 629 million gallons. Argentina reduced the export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [7]. - **Domestic situation**: Affected by export news, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased in July, with a maximum daily trading volume of 100,000 tons. Palm oil was mainly for rigid demand, and new purchase orders were added in August. The inventories of soybean oil and palm oil increased to 1.09 million tons and 600,000 tons respectively, and the rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline to around 700,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy**: Due to the good growth of US soybeans, high crushing volume in June, uncertainty in the biodiesel policy, and Argentina's reduction of export taxes, CBOT soybeans fell below 1000. Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports declined in July, and the inventory was expected to continue to increase at the end of the month. Indonesia's palm oil exports were good from May to June, production was suppressed by industry supervision, and biodiesel consumption met the plan, with the inventory stopping increasing at the end of May. There were multiple news in the export end. The soybean oil trend is strong, and long positions at previous low levels of palm oil can be held [8]. 3.2 Market Review - In July, CBOT soybean fell below the 1000 integer mark, CBOT soybean oil first rose and then declined, the price centers of domestic and foreign palm oil and Dalian soybean oil moved up, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil was sorted in a high - level range [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **US soybeans**: The good rate of US soybeans was 68 - 70%; the June crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels, the D4 credit limit for biodiesel was 629 million gallons (602 million gallons in May). The Brazilian soybean premium rose to 185 cents/bushel, a nearly two - year high. Argentina reduced the soybean export tax from 33% to 26%, and the export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal from 31% to 24.5% [13]. - **Palm oil**: In July, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 7 - 14%, production increased by 7%, and the "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US on Malaysia was reduced from 25% to 19%. From May to June, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased, and the reference price of crude palm oil in August was raised to 910.91 US dollars/ton. The US imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June increased to 956,000 tons [13]. - **Import and crushing**: In June, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative import of 49.37 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; imported 350,000 tons of palm oil, with a cumulative import of 1.07 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%; imported 150,000 tons of rapeseed oil, with a cumulative import of 1.18 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 25.7%; imported 184,500 tons of rapeseed, a month - on - month decrease of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 69.69%. In July, the soybean crushing operation rate remained high, and the inventory accumulation progress of soybean in oil mills slowed down; the rapeseed crushing operation rate and oil mill inventory were both low [13]. - **Inventory**: By the end of July, the soybean oil inventory increased for three consecutive months to 1.09 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory decreased for more than two months to 710,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous high; the palm oil inventory accumulated to 590,000 tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous low. The total inventory of the three major oils increased to 2.32 million tons, compared with 1.94 million tons in the same period of the previous year [13]. - **Spot price**: In July, the spot prices of oils generally rose. As of July 31, the soybean oil price was 8343 yuan/ton, a 2% increase from the previous month; the palm oil price was 8968 yuan/ton, a 5.61% increase from the previous month; the rapeseed oil price was 9665 yuan/ton, a slight 0.68% increase from the previous month [13]. - **Demand**: In July, the spot trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased significantly. The trading volume of soybean oil was 463,200 tons (381,500 tons in June); the trading volume of palm oil was 10,375 tons (27,449 tons in June); the trading volume of rapeseed oil was 4500 tons (76,000 tons in June) [13]. 3.4 Spread Tracking No specific content provided in the part of spread tracking in the text.

但印尼B40政策在实际执行中并不顺利。由于棕榈油与柴油价格长期倒挂，该政策的推进需依赖政府财 政补贴。因财政补贴存在缺口，今年1月7日印尼签署实施B40的法令，规定用于公共部门的755万千升 生物柴油可获得政府补贴，非公共部门的约805万千升生物柴油则未纳入补贴机制。不过，自5月17日 起，印尼将毛棕榈油出口专项税从此前设定的"毛棕榈油参考价的 7.5%"上调至10%。 6月初以来，在生物柴油政策利好预期推动下，油脂市场逐渐脱离此前的区间震荡走势，开启一轮上涨 行情，其中豆油和棕榈油涨势尤为明显。 6月13日，美国环保署（EPA）发布《可再生燃料标准》（RFS）最终提案，2026年和2027年的生物燃 料掺混总量分别为240.2亿加仑和244.6亿加仑，高于2025年223.3亿加仑的掺混要求。其中，2026年的生 物柴油掺混目标为56.1亿加仑，远高于2025年33.5亿加仑的目标，也高于此前生物燃料行业提出的52.5 亿加仑的目标。此外，该提案还含有限制生物燃料进口的措施。由于美国生物柴油的主要原材料是豆 油，若该提案正式实施，将使豆油市场供需格局发生重大变化。 美国农业部数据显示，2025年豆油占生物质 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the draft of the US biodiesel policy exceeded expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia was insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas were low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supported the central level of oils and fats. Regarding palm oil, if demand - side countries maintained normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remained at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas might remain stable, supporting the producer prices to fluctuate strongly. There might be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation was relatively high, and the upward space was restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil and fat production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. Therefore, it should be viewed as fluctuating [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview** - Palm oil maintained a volatile trend this week. The net long positions of foreign capital, which accounted for the main positions of the three major oils and fats, reached a record high. Palm oil reduced long positions this week, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil slightly increased long positions. The estimated export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 31st decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% month - on - month. The SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 25th, 2025, increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected export of Malaysian palm oil implied a recovery in Indonesia's production or weak demand in consumer areas. The narrative of palm oil production increase and weak demand still suppressed the market. Although there were medium - term positive factors such as the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the short - term data deviation also brought correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - market rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level. China and Australia were in contact regarding rapeseed purchases, which suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil widened, mainly because some domestic soybean oil was exported, alleviating the domestic supply pressure of soybean oil [11]. - In the international oils and fats market, the USDA July monthly report estimated that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US would increase by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which would be supplemented by a decrease in soybean oil exports and an increase in crushing output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil only increased by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipping volume of Canadian rapeseed farmers decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export volume remained relatively high. The commercial inventory was recently stable at a neutral - to - high level in previous years. In addition, the contact between China and Australia regarding rapeseed trade depressed the rapeseed price, and the price of foreign - market rapeseed fluctuated weakly this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large - scale export data, but the new - crop rapeseed faced a production reduction situation, which supported the rapeseed price. India might have started a replenishment process, which would support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic oils and fats market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The spot basis was at a relatively low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats was about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory was 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory was about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory was the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume would increase with the arrival of soybeans. After the increase in palm oil production, the willingness to export would also increase. Rapeseed oil would maintain a slow de - stocking trend, but the high price difference and weak consumption of rapeseed oil led to a slow de - stocking process. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats would temporarily remain at a relatively high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to view the market as fluctuating. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above [13]. - No specific content was provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - futures, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts. These charts help to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Palm Oil** - The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the supply situation of palm oil in these two major producing areas [28][29]. - It also presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which are helpful for understanding the supply situation of raw materials for soybean oil and rapeseed oil production [30][31]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas** - The report includes charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which can be used to analyze the potential impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory of Domestic Oils and Fats** - The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and fats and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in the domestic and Indian markets [41]. - **Profit and Inventory of Different Oils** - For palm oil, it presents the near - month import profit chart and the commercial inventory chart [44]. - For soybean oil, it shows the spot crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory chart of major soybean oil mills [46]. - For rapeseed oil, it shows the average spot crushing profit chart of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory chart of rapeseed oil in East China [47]. - **Inventory of Palm Oil in Producing Areas** - The report shows the inventory charts of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in palm - oil - producing areas [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Palm Oil** - The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of palm oil [51][53]. - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed** - It presents the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil (nearest - month shipping date) and the import cost price chart of Chinese imported rapeseed, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume** - The report shows the cumulative trading volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years, which can be used to analyze the trading volume situation of these two oils and fats [58]. - **Profit of Biodiesel** - It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil), which can be used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel production using palm oil and soybean oil [60].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil may see an upward trend due to concerns about limited inventory growth and potential export increase in August. For soybean oil, the impact of US biodiesel policy has ended, and domestic demand may pick up in August. It is recommended to go long on dips for palm oil and pay attention to the domestic demand recovery for soybean oil [1]. - **Meal and Bean Products**: The US soybean market is under pressure due to the expectation of a bumper harvest and trade uncertainties. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see for bean meal [2]. - **Pork**: The spot pork market is weak, with low enthusiasm for secondary fattening, increased slaughter volume, and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price will remain at the bottom, and the near - month contract is under pressure. For the far - month contract, it is not recommended to short blindly, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The corn market is relatively stable in the short term, with limited price increase and decrease. The supply is tight in the third quarter and may be loose in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy auctions and the growth of new crops [6]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has no new drivers, and the overall is bearish. The domestic sugar market has low demand, and the price is under pressure due to the increase in imports. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation [8]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the supply of large - sized eggs is tight. The demand may first decrease and then increase this week. The egg price may decline slightly next week but still has an upward space in the spot market, while the futures upside is limited [11]. - **Cotton**: The supply pressure of cotton is increasing marginally, and the demand weakness is weakening marginally. The domestic cotton price may oscillate in the short term and face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The futures price of Y2509 was 8226 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The basis was 144 yuan/ton, down 37.39%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.78% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, the spot price in Guangdong was 8920 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The futures price of P2509 was 8970 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The basis was - 50 yuan/ton, down 308.33%. The import cost increased by 0.14%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 28, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9540 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The futures price of Ol509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. The basis decreased by 26.87%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1]. Meal and Bean Products - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2990 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, up 5%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 8.9% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2530 yuan/ton, down 1.17%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis decreased by 30%. The import profit decreased by 57.84%, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [2]. - **Soybean**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.68%. The basis increased by 26.89%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.14% [2]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 14125 yuan/ton, down 0.88%. The price of the 2509 contract was 14150 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The 9 - 11 spread was 25 yuan/ton, up 120%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, and other regions decreased, with the largest decline of 200 yuan/ton in Henan and Shandong [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2302 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, up 54.84%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.45%. The import profit decreased by 0.88% [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2509 contract was 2666 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 566.67%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 7.89%. The starch - corn spread remained unchanged [6]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5731 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5867 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar price was 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.79%. The 1 - 9 spread increased by 4.9% [8]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Kunming was 5915 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The basis in Nanning decreased by 10.73%, and the basis in Kunming increased by 37.14% [8]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3576 yuan/500KG, unchanged. The price of the 08 contract was 3349 yuan/500KG, down 0.33%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 5.09% [10]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the producing area was 3.20 yuan/jin, down 0.48%. The basis was - 375 yuan/500KG, down 3.55% [10]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13925 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The price of the 2601 contract was 14025 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The ICE US cotton price was 67.66 cents/pound, down 0.94%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 110 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15431 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The CC Index of 3128B was 15580 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on high - frequency exports of the oil and fat industry, indicating "short - term bearish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected U.S. biodiesel policy draft, limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, low inventories of vegetable oils in India for rigid demand, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. From July to September, if demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong and volatile price quotation. There may be an upward price expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expectation of increased oil and fat production, relatively high palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro - factors, and demand adjustments in major importing countries. The market is expected to be volatile [11][12][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Palm oil rose slightly at the beginning of the week following the optimistic sentiment in commodities, but it was difficult to continue the upward trend due to the record - high net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils and fats and the bearish high - frequency export and production data. It fell at the end of the week following the overall decline in commodities. Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days were expected to decline by 9.2% - 15.22% month - on - month, and the production in the first 20 days of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected exports may imply increased production in Indonesia or weak demand in consuming areas. The narrative of increased palm oil production and weak demand still suppresses the market. Although there are medium - term positive factors such as the expected B50 policy in Indonesia and limited potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia, short - term data deviations bring correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - traded rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed purchases suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil [11] - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA July monthly report estimated that the U.S. will increase about 1.5 million tons of industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season, which will be supplemented by a decline in soybean oil exports and increased压榨 output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil is only expected to increase by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipment volume of Canadian rapeseed is still high, and exports are at a seasonally high level, with signs of inventory accumulation in commercial inventories. The contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade also suppresses the rapeseed price. The foreign - traded rapeseed price has been mainly volatile this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large export data, but the new - crop rapeseed is facing a production decline, which supports the rapeseed price. India purchased a large amount of vegetable oils in June, possibly starting a replenishment process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11] - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: The trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was weak this week, and the spot basis was at a low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory is 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory is about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory is the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will increase with the arrival of soybeans, and the export willingness of palm oil will also increase after production rises. The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, but the high price difference and weak consumption lead to slow inventory reduction. It is difficult to see a downward trend in the total domestic inventory of oils and fats for now [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: For unilateral trading, the market is expected to be volatile. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above. There is no specific recommendation for arbitrage trading [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB - futures price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of 09 contracts of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23][25] 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the monthly production and export of palm oil and palm kernel oil in Indonesia. It also includes charts of the weekly arrival of soybeans, soybean port inventory, monthly import of rapeseed, and monthly import of rapeseed oil, which are used to analyze the supply situation of different oils and fats [28][29][30][31] - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report presents charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which are used to analyze the impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows charts of the total inventory of domestic three major oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, which are used to analyze the profit and inventory situation of different oils and fats [41][44][46][47][49] 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Malaysian Palm Oil**: The report shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil, which are used to analyze the cost of Malaysian palm oil [51][52] - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: The report shows charts of the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China, which are used to analyze the cost of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55] 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: The report shows charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year, which are used to analyze the trading demand for different oils and fats [58] - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which are used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may strengthen slowly after oscillating in the range of 4300 - 4350 ringgit, but are likely to weaken after the end - of - month market re - assesses concerns about inventory growth. Domestic palm oil futures maintain a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and attention should be paid to whether it can stand firmly above 9000 yuan after oscillating in the 9000 - 9200 range. - The USDA's increase in the industrial use of US soybean oil to more than half of consumption and the hope for Indian Diwali stocking boost the palm oil and vegetable oil markets. CBOT soybean oil may rise again in the short term. In the domestic market, the oil mills'催提 before contract execution expiration in August has a negative impact on the spot basis, but the trade - cost support and increasing demand after July will support the basis [1]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of June decreased more than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted downward, Brazil's output may not meet expectations. The price of raw sugar may find a short - term bottom, but the overall trend is still bearish due to the expected increase in production. In the domestic market, low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, but the entry of refined sugar into the market and expected increase in imports will lead to a marginal loosening of supply - demand, so a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [4]. Corn - The policy auction of imported corn has limited impact. Supply - side factors such as tight remaining grain, traders' reluctance to sell, and transportation disruptions from heavy rainfall keep the number of corn - arriving vehicles low. However, low profit margins limit the willingness of deep - processing enterprises to raise prices. Demand - side factors show low deep - processing startup rates and sufficient feed - enterprise inventories. Wheat has a substitution advantage but is supported by the price - support policy, limiting the decline of corn prices. In the medium term, tight supply, low imports, and increasing aquaculture consumption will support corn prices. In the short term, the market is quiet, and the market may fluctuate narrowly [7]. Meal - US soybeans are at the bottom and may be supported by expected drought in the main production areas in August and improved trade expectations. Brazilian soybeans are firm due to high premiums, but Chinese purchase rumors of US soybeans suppress the rise of Brazilian premiums. In the domestic market, soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. Short - term supply is high, but the continuity of soybean arrivals after October is uncertain, so the basis has limited downside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [10]. Cotton - The downstream demand of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to some follow - up price increases. The inventory pressure from the sale of old cotton after the rise in Zhengzhou cotton prices is not concentrated, and the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before the new cotton harvest. In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and will face pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. Pork - The recent rise in the pork futures market is driven by capital sentiment. The current supply - demand situation is weak. Although there may be a short - term boost at the end of the month, the subsequent resumption of group - farm sales and the need to sell large pigs from small - scale farmers suggest that short - term pig prices are not optimistic. Spot prices are expected to bottom - oscillate, and the upside of the near - month 09 contract is limited. The far - month contracts are affected by policies, and caution should be exercised in trading [15]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to the high inventory of laying hens, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and production rates, resulting in a tight supply of large - sized eggs. The peak - season demand for eggs has started, with increased participation from traders and food enterprises. The price of eggs is expected to rise this week, but the increase may be limited by sufficient supply and high - temperature weather [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data Palm Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 1 palm oil was 8360 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8166 yuan/ton, up 1.14%. The basis was 194 yuan/ton, down 17.80%. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 21,695 [1]. Soybean Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree soybean oil was 9050 yuan/ton, up 0.56%; the futures price of P2509 was 8994 yuan/ton, up 1.22%. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, down 1000.00%. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port showed corresponding changes [1]. Rapeseed Oil - On July 24, the spot price of Jiangsu Grade 4 rapeseed oil was 9570 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of OI509 was 9492 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, down 17.02% [1]. Sugar - On July 24, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 2668 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the futures price of 2509 was 5866 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The basis, warehouse receipts, and other indicators also changed accordingly. In the spot market, the prices in Nanning and Kunming showed different trends, and the import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [3]. Corn - On July 25, the futures price of corn 2509 was 2318 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. For corn starch, the futures price of 2509 was 2669 yuan/ton, down 0.22%, and the basis increased [7]. Meal - On July 25, the spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2860 yuan/ton, down 2.05%; the futures price of M2509 was 3025 yuan/ton, down 2.26%. The basis, import - crushing profit, and other indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans all changed [10]. Cotton - On July 25, the futures price of cotton 2509 was 14160 yuan/ton, down 0.14%; the futures price of 2601 was 14065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis, 9 - 1 spread, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. In the spot market, the prices of Xinjiang - delivered cotton and other indicators increased slightly [12]. Pork - On July 25, the futures price of pork 2511 was 14210 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the futures price of 2509 was 14365 yuan/ton, down 1.54%. The basis, 9 - 11 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. Spot prices in different regions decreased to varying degrees [15]. Eggs - On July 25, the futures price of the egg 09 contract was 3636 yuan/500KG, down 0.03%; the futures price of the 08 contract was 3562 yuan/500KG, down 1.41%. The basis, 9 - 8 spread, and other indicators changed accordingly. The prices of egg - producing areas, egg - chicken seedlings, and other related indicators also showed different trends [18]. Industry Situation Sugar - The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 million tons, up 4.59%, and the monthly sales in Guangxi decreased by 3.26%. The national and Guangxi sugar sales rates increased, and the national industrial inventory decreased by 9.56% [3]. Cotton - The commercial inventory decreased by 10.2% month - on - month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.3%, the import volume decreased by 25.0%, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.7%. The yarn and fabric inventory days increased, the cotton outbound shipping volume increased by 22.6%, and the processing profit of spinning enterprises decreased by 0.9%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles increased by 4.1%, and the export situation of textiles and clothing showed different trends [12]. Pork - The daily slaughter volume increased by 0.73%, the weekly white - strip pork price decreased by 1.01%, the weekly piglet and sow prices remained unchanged, the weekly average slaughter weight decreased by 0.27%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 32.11%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 159.05%, and the monthly inventory of breeding sows increased by 0.10% [15].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating and slightly rising due to a single - supply source. The soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, and the domestic soybean meal market has a complex situation of multiple long and short factors [2][4]. - The palm oil market is influenced by various factors. The US biodiesel policy and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price, but the high - level production forecast, high production in producing areas, and other factors limit the upside space [6][9]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline if the external market price does not rebound significantly [12]. - The cotton market has shown a partial rebound, but the downstream consumption is average, and the potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas is a negative factor [15]. - The egg market is currently stable with limited trading. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend, while the post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [18][19]. - The pig market has a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: North American weather is favorable, limiting the upside space of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures prices fell at night on Thursday, and the spot prices dropped significantly. The downstream inventory days are higher than the same period last year. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by a single - supply source and is oscillating slightly upward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean meal market has multiple long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing profit and supply pressure at the higher end, waiting for new drivers from the Sino - US tariff situation and the supply side [4]. Oil - **Important Information**: The high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil shows different trends in different periods. The production in July has increased. The MPOB expects an increase in the production and export of Malaysian palm oil in 2025, while the GAPKI expects a decrease in Indonesia's palm oil exports. The domestic palm oil is oscillating, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in the three major oils have changed slightly [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is rising due to the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the upside space is limited by factors such as high - level production expectations, high production in producing areas, and uncertain RVO rules. It should be regarded as an oscillating market [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose slightly on Thursday. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed different trends. The sugarcane yield and sugar content in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased in June [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is in a good import profit window, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. If the external market price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate on Thursday. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang increased slightly. The weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable, and the expected yield per unit of new cotton in 2025 is expected to increase [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August is a negative factor [15]. Egg - **Important Information**: The egg prices in most regions are stable, with only a few adjustments. The inventory of eggs in the market is small, the demand in the sales areas is stable, and the trading volume is average [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High temperatures have reduced the egg - laying rate, and the supply pressure has eased. The short - term price is guided by the spot price and lacks a clear trend. The post - festival contracts after September may offer short - selling opportunities [19]. Pig - **Important Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall on Thursday. The market supply is sufficient, and the terminal consumption is weak [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is a short - term divergence between futures and spot prices in the pig market. The market has expectations of capacity reduction in the future, but the hedging pressure is high. Attention should be paid to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [22].