Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].

NIG的经济学家Min Joo Kang研报称，韩国低迷的私人部门招聘，尤其是制造业和 建筑业的招聘，可能 会在今年全年拖累整体经济增长。Kang表示，该国7月份经季节性调整的失业率从6月份的2.6%小幅降 至2.5%，但制造业就业人数连续第二个月下降，而建筑业在2025年的过去七个月中有六个月出现就业 人数减少。尽管疲软的国内需求需要韩国央行的政策支持，但该央行可能会将降息推迟到10月份，因为 缺乏当地房产价格正在降温的迹象。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold and oil markets, highlighting the impact of economic data and geopolitical events on prices [2][6]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The market reacted to the CPI data with a short-term drop in the U.S. dollar and a spike in gold prices, indicating a temporary optimistic sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging oscillation between $3450 and $3250, with recent price action indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend [3]. - After testing support levels around $3270/3280, gold prices rebounded but faced resistance at $3410, leading to a significant drop below key support levels [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on resistance levels between $3358 and $3370, while support levels are identified around $3335 to $3310 [5]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market saw a slight increase in prices due to the extension of tariff pauses between the U.S. and major Asian countries, alleviating trade concerns [6]. - Brent crude oil futures were reported at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $63.89 per barrel, indicating a stable market environment [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a downward trend, with a potential trading range identified between $62.80 and $64.60 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's SCHMID indicates that while the policy is somewhat restrictive, it is not overly so, and a restrictive policy is currently appropriate; economic growth remains robust, and inflation is still too high [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is described as having a certain level of restrictiveness, which is deemed suitable for the current economic conditions [1] - Economic growth is reported to be steady, suggesting resilience in the economy despite inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation levels are highlighted as being excessively high, indicating ongoing challenges for the economy [1]

Core Insights - The President of the Republika Srpska, Dodik, announced that the GDP net growth of the entity exceeded 1.5 billion marks last year, with registered investments amounting to 2.8 billion marks [1] - The current GDP of the Republika Srpska is approximately 18 billion marks, with expectations to reach between 19 billion and 20 billion marks by the end of this year [1] - Dodik emphasized that the Republika Srpska has demonstrated its ability to be self-sufficient, which is a significant concern for the people of Sarajevo [1] Economic Performance - The GDP net growth of the Republika Srpska was over 1.5 billion marks last year [1] - Registered investments in the Republika Srpska reached 2.8 billion marks [1] - The projected GDP for the end of this year is between 19 billion and 20 billion marks [1] Challenges - The primary issue facing the Republika Srpska is at the local community level, where increasing administrative restrictions necessitate a faster pace of economic development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects improved economic expectations in China due to the control of the pandemic and the anticipated economic rebound [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - On June 6, the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 6.6691, an increase of 404 basis points [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 6.6457 against the US dollar, rising by 293 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB had already shown signs of recovery before the Dragon Boat Festival, with the onshore rate increasing by 191 basis points on June 2 and the offshore rate rising by 442 basis points to 6.6540 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to short-term trading factors and the overall improvement in economic growth expectations as the pandemic situation stabilizes [1]. - The trade surplus and net inflows from direct investment, along with increased private foreign exchange asset holdings, provide a solid foundation for maintaining RMB stability [2]. - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange noted that the economic recovery momentum is strengthening, supported by effective policies at both central and local levels [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts predict that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a two-way fluctuation trend based on reasonable equilibrium [2]. - The external environment, including a slowdown in US inflation and concerns about the US economy, is contributing to a recent decline in the US dollar [2]. - Continued foreign investment in RMB assets is expected due to stable returns, further supporting the currency's value [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, which has narrowed by 10.8% to $86 billion, the lowest level since September 2023, primarily due to a 4.2% decrease in imports, indicating a cooling domestic demand [1] Economic Indicators - The narrowing trade deficit is expected to lessen the drag of net exports on economic growth, contributing to a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. economy [1] - Economists have raised their GDP growth forecast for the second quarter from 2.4% to 2.9% following the positive trade data [1] Market Implications - The positive economic outlook is providing strong support for the U.S. dollar, enhancing investor confidence in dollar-denominated assets [1] - Analysts suggest that the dollar index is likely to maintain a relatively strong performance in light of improving economic fundamentals [1] Technical Analysis - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.75-98.80 and 99.00-99.05, while support levels are at 98.40-98.45 and 98.15-98.20 [1] - A trading strategy is proposed to buy within the range of 99.05-98.15, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target at the upper limit of the range [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, surpassing market expectations of 4.8% and marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q2 2023, demonstrating the resilience of the Indonesian economy amid global uncertainties [1] - The manufacturing, agriculture, trade, construction, and mining sectors contributed significantly to GDP growth, accounting for 63.59% of the total [1] - The manufacturing sector showed remarkable performance with a growth rate of 5.88% in Q2, driven by rising domestic demand and strong export activity [1] Economic Drivers - Exports increased by 10.67% year-on-year in Q2, supported by higher shipments of metals, electronics, automotive parts, and palm oil, as international buyers rushed to complete purchases before new U.S. tariffs took effect [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 6.99% in Q2, the fastest rate in four years, largely due to significant investments in infrastructure projects, including the expansion of Jakarta's rapid transit system [2] - Domestic consumption showed a moderate recovery with household consumption rising by 4.97% year-on-year, aided by increased spending during holidays and government incentives [3] Government Support - The Indonesian government implemented various policy measures to stimulate economic growth, including easing spending restrictions and launching quick-impact projects to enhance public purchasing power [3] - Despite a 0.33% year-on-year decline in government spending, the improvement from a 2.9% contraction in Q1 indicates a positive trend [3] - The government plans to extend tax relief for properties below a certain value and provide investment credits and low-interest loans for labor-intensive industries [4] Market Reactions - The strong economic performance led to a 1% increase in the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) and an appreciation of the Indonesian rupiah against the U.S. dollar [4] - While some experts express concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to potential global economic slowdowns and domestic challenges, the government remains optimistic about future economic development [4][5] Long-term Outlook - Indonesia, as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has significant growth potential supported by its large population and abundant natural resources [4] - The government's ongoing economic reforms aim to improve the investment environment and attract more domestic and foreign investments [4] - The increasing global focus on sustainable development and renewable energy presents promising opportunities for Indonesia in the green energy sector [4]

Core Insights - China's role in global affairs is increasingly prominent, as it strives to provide high-quality international public goods [2] - The country's economic growth is projected to exceed 130 trillion RMB in 2024, with a steady growth rate of 5% [2] - China's electric vehicle production and sales have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively, and exports surging by 75.2% [2][3] Economic Performance - International organizations, including the IMF and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China following impressive half-year results [3] - China is recognized as one of the leading countries in future industry investments, particularly in electric vehicles, battery technology, solar panels, and wind turbines [3] Global Sustainability Efforts - China is actively addressing climate change and promoting the implementation of the Paris Agreement, contributing to the reduction of renewable energy product prices [3] - The country is enhancing bilateral and regional economic cooperation, expanding its high-standard free trade zone network, with 23 free trade agreements signed with 30 countries and regions [3] Regional Cooperation - The Belt and Road Initiative is seen as a means to assist developing countries in modernizing their infrastructure and achieving development opportunities [3] - Asian countries, represented by China and ASEAN nations, are encouraged to strengthen dialogue and cooperation through multilateral platforms to promote regional development [4]

Core Insights - Cambodia's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, driven primarily by the manufacturing sector, with contributions from tourism and agriculture, while the construction and real estate sectors continued to show weakness [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The garment manufacturing industry grew by 10.4%, and non-garment manufacturing grew by 8.5% in the first half of 2025 [1] - Exports of manufactured goods increased by 15.3%, significantly higher than the 8.7% growth in the same period last year [1] - The growth in manufacturing was supported by garment exports and new product exports, including tires, light bulbs, wires, and cables [1][2] Tourism Sector - The number of international tourists increased by 6.2%, reaching 3.4 million, while domestic tourist numbers surged by 50.3% to 14.6 million [1] - This growth in tourism was attributed to the development of key infrastructure, the opening of direct flights, and the organization of large-scale events to attract visitors [1][2] Agriculture Sector - Agriculture experienced a growth of 1.2%, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [1][2] Construction and Real Estate Sector - Despite a 44.1% increase in the import of construction materials and equipment, and a 37.7% rise in the value of approved construction projects, the construction sector only grew by 0.7% [1] - Foreign direct investment in the construction sector declined by 14% in the first half of 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in this area [1]