宏观日报 | 2025-07-03 关注第三批"两重"资金推进 中观事件总览 生产行业：第三批"两重"资金推进。 1）近日，国家发展改革委安排超3000亿元支持2025年第三批"两重"建设项目。 至此，今年8000亿元"两重"建设项目清单已全部下达完毕。"硬投资"方面，2025年"两重"建设共安排8000亿元支持 1459个项目。"软建设"方面，在重点领域加快推出一批改革创新举措. 服务行业：公积金商转公贷款。 1）广州住房公积金管理中心公开征求《广州商业性个人住房贷款转住房公积金 个人住房贷款实施办法（暂行）》（征求意见稿）意见的公告。实施办法提出，缴存人申请将其在广州市住房公积 金贷款承办银行尚未结清的商业性个人住房贷款余额，当住房公积金个人住房贷款率低于75%时启动商转公贷款； 当个贷率达到85%及以上时可采取防控措施，包括但不限于实行商转公贷款额度管控、预约申请等措施；当个贷率 达到90%及以上时暂停。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：国际油价回落较多。2）农业：鸡蛋价格回落。 中游：1）化工：尿素、PX、聚酯开工率有所下行。 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售季节 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is set to join Shenzhen as a major city implementing the "commercial to public" (商转公) loan policy, allowing the conversion of commercial housing loans to public housing loans when the individual loan rate falls below 75% [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center has drafted a proposal for public consultation from July 2 to July 11, aiming to alleviate the interest burden on loan payers and stimulate social consumption [2]. - The proposal introduces a dynamic adjustment mechanism linking the business's opening to the status of provident fund funds, with specific thresholds for individual loan rates (75%, 85%, and 90%) dictating the operational status of the "commercial to public" loans [2][3]. Group 2: Application Conditions - The proposal outlines specific eligibility criteria for applicants, including the requirement that borrowers must have been contributing to the housing provident fund in Guangzhou and must not have previously utilized public housing loans [3]. - The original commercial loan must have been disbursed for at least five years, and the borrower must have obtained consent from the original commercial loan bank to convert to a pure public fund loan [3][4]. Group 3: Market Impact - The implementation of the "commercial to public" loan policy is expected to reduce monthly payment burdens for borrowers and decrease instances of early loan repayment, particularly benefiting younger buyers and new residents who previously could not access public loans [3][4]. - The policy is seen as a response to market demands, aligning with broader trends of promoting housing as a consumer good and addressing the needs of first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [1][4].

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天震荡上行，30 年期品种表现较强，截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.40%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.14%，5 | | | | | 年期 TF2509 上涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.03%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 985 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 3653 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日实现净回笼 2668 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周三银行间资金 ...

人民银行宣布自5月8日起下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点后，存量公积金贷款利率如何调整 备受关注。据证券时报记者不完全统计，目前已有北京、上海、深圳、广州、长沙、西安、宁波、南 京、昆明、哈尔滨、银川、河南等多地发布通知落实下调公积金贷款利率新政，其中多地明确了存量房 贷利率调整政策。 5月8日，北京住房公积金管理中心发布公告，5月8日（含）之后新发放的贷款，5年以下（含5年）和5 年以上首套个人住房公积金贷款利率分别为2.1%和2.6%，5年以下（含5年）和5年以上第二套个人住房 公积金贷款利率分别为2.525%和3.075%。 对于存量公积金贷款利率，北京住房公积金管理中心表示，5月8日（不含）以前发放的，期限在一年 （含一年）以内的个人住房公积金贷款，5月8日后仍执行原利率，不分段计息；期限在一年以上的个人 住房公积金贷款，5月8日后仍执行原利率，自明年1月1日（含）开始，执行调整后的个人住房公积金贷 款利率。 记者注意到，大部分地方公告的存量公积金贷款利率调整政策为5月8日前发放的贷款统一到2026年1月1 日再执行调降后的利率，北京政策表述略有不同，做了"期限一年"以内和以上的区分。 "其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize the market and expectations, with a focus on introducing new policy financial tools to address structural issues in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, a package of financial policies has been rapidly released to support market stability and expectations, including interest rate cuts and new structural monetary policy tools [1][2]. - The effectiveness of these policies is being observed, but experts suggest that new policy financial tools are still necessary to address ongoing structural contradictions in certain areas [1][2]. Group 2: New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools are expected to provide targeted support for key areas such as foreign trade, technological innovation, and consumption [2][3]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan in policy and developmental financial tools, leading to a total credit limit of over 3.5 trillion yuan for supported projects [1]. Group 3: Support for Foreign Trade and Investment - Experts anticipate that new policy financial tools may include mechanisms similar to export buyer credit to support foreign trade enterprises and mitigate external demand fluctuations [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that these new tools will address capital shortages for project construction, potentially reviving and optimizing existing policy financial tools [3]. Group 4: Role of PSL and Fiscal Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to restart and expand the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) program to provide long-term low-cost funding to policy banks [4][5]. - Fiscal support, such as interest subsidies, is deemed crucial for the effectiveness of new policy financial tools, as seen in previous initiatives where the central government provided significant interest subsidies to reduce project funding costs [4][5].

Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the average yield of AAA-rated corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to the corporate sector, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the release of a joint guideline by several Chinese financial authorities aimed at boosting and expanding consumption through 19 specific measures [1] - The guideline emphasizes enhancing the professional service capabilities of financial institutions and expanding financial supply in the consumption sector [1][2] - It highlights the importance of credit support, urging financial institutions to improve risk management and expand customer support while ensuring sustainable business practices [1] Group 2 - A notable measure includes the establishment of a 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care, which is part of a broader financial policy announced in May [1][2] - The guideline encourages financial institutions to increase support for service consumption sectors such as accommodation, dining, entertainment, and education, aiming to meet high-quality consumer demands [2] - It also calls for innovation in consumer credit products to cater to diverse consumer needs and emphasizes the importance of trade-in financing for consumer goods like automobiles [2] Group 3 - The guideline stresses the need for improved financial services for residents, including support for consumer credit and the development of pension insurance finance [3] - It aims to strengthen the macroeconomic financial foundation by implementing entrepreneurial guarantee loan policies and optimizing insurance systems [3] - The guideline identifies the need to enhance consumption infrastructure, particularly in logistics and supply chain efficiency, to facilitate market expansion [3]

证券时报记者秦燕玲 6月26日，金融监管总局、人民银行联合发布了《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》（以下 简称《方案》）。《方案》明确未来5年要基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，同时从普惠金融服务、 普惠信贷、普惠保险三个方面提出具体政策举措。 金融监管总局有关司局负责人表示，优化普惠金融服务体系、巩固提升普惠信贷体系和能力、加强普惠 保险体系建设是《方案》提出的3项重点工作任务。其中，在普惠信贷方面，《方案》明确，要完善普 惠信贷管理体系、提升小微企业信贷服务质效、加强"三农"领域信贷供给、加大脱贫地区和特定群体信 贷帮扶力度、强化民营企业信贷支持。 值得注意的是，本次《方案》在普惠金融相关政策中新增了强化民营企业支持力度的相关安排。前述负 责人表示，这是《方案》守正创新的具体体现，即在对过往实践中行之有效的经验做法进行提炼、强调 的同时，适应国家经济社会形势变化针对性提出新要求。 具体来看，《方案》明确，要持续加大信贷资源投入。加强涉企信用信息归集，提供专业化征信服务， 推广"信易贷"模式。重点满足有市场、有效益、信用好、成长性高的民营企业的有效融资需求。切实平 等保护民营企业金融公平交易权、金融服 ...

7月2日，广州住房公积金管理中心（以下简称" 广州 公积金中心"）就《广州商业性个人住 房贷款转住房公积金个人住房贷款实施办法（暂行）》（征求意见稿）（以下简称《征求意 见稿》）向社会公开征求 意见，征求意见时间从7月2日至7月11日。 广州推动"商转公贷款"政策实施是为充分发挥住房公积金制度支持保障作用，减轻缴存人 住房贷款利息负担，促进社会消费。 广州拟明确，当住房公积金个人住房贷款率（以下简称"个贷率"）低于75%时启动商转公 贷款。 个贷率低于75%可启动"商转公" 《征求意见稿》显示，商业性个人住房贷款转住房公积金个人住房贷款（以下简称"商转公 贷款"），是指缴存人申请将其在广州市住房公积金贷款承办银行尚未结清的商业性个人住 房贷款（以下简称"商业贷款"）余额，全部转为住房公积金个人住房贷款（以下简称"公积 金贷款"）。 申请商转公贷款时，除符合广州市住房公积金贷款相关规定外，还应同时符合八个条件： 当个贷率低于75%时启动商转公贷款；当个贷率达到85%及以上时可采取防控措施，包括 但不限于实行商转公贷款额度管控、预约申请等措施；当个贷率达到90%及以上时暂停。 本办法实施过程中， 广州 公积金中心 ...

Group 1 - The National Development Bank Hainan Branch is providing targeted support for project construction through its re-loan policy, facilitating the development of the biodegradable plastic industry in Hainan [2][4] - The PBST project, which is the world's first continuous production facility for 60,000 tons/year of biodegradable materials, has successfully produced qualified products, marking a significant advancement in Hainan's biodegradable plastic industry chain [2][3] - The project has a funding gap of over 80 million yuan due to its large scale and complexity, prompting the National Development Bank Hainan Branch to conduct a comprehensive assessment and develop a financing plan that meets the enterprise's needs [3][4] Group 2 - The PBST project is aligned with the government's focus on technological innovation and transformation, making it a suitable candidate for re-loan support, which includes a two-year loan with a 1.5% fiscal interest subsidy to alleviate initial operational pressures [4][5] - The National Development Bank Hainan Branch has established a project task force that includes various departments to expedite the approval process, successfully signing a contract for 82 million yuan and ensuring the timely disbursement of funds to support project construction [5] - The products from the PBST project are already being applied in large-scale agricultural trials, demonstrating the growing synergy between industry and finance in Hainan's free trade port [5]