56.18 OH 45 55 63 35.08 56 38.99 18.88 38.99 35.08 26.68 19.66 18.98 56.18 26 58 19 all 7/2 - ■■ 我们认为资产重估定价更适合步入宏观稳定期的中国股市。 我们认为日本市场关注留存收益增长对净资产推动，并通过PB定价的思路更有利于低增长的宏观经 济环境，也将更适合未来A股的估值思路转变。基于日本经验，我们认为可以将A股成长性的关注度 从净利润增长转向资产重估增长（分红留存后的ROE增长，计算公式：资产重估增速=ROE×（1-分 红率））。虽然这一策略不适用于处于早期的成长性公司，但对于资产配置和全市场盈利预测将更 有帮助，同时也有利于成熟行业龙头的价值重估。该定价策略的核心假设是中国经济将步入成熟 期，经济增速逐渐走平。 资产重估策略是否有效？ 2024年资产重估增速对行业表现的解释度提升，成为较净利润和净资产增速更有效的基本面指标。 涨幅榜前五的行业中，仅电子的资产重估增速低于中位数水平，在30个一级行业中，2024年资产重 估增速高且滞涨的行业仅三个。我们认为资产重估增速不会陷入线性外推的长期主义估值陷阱，尤 其适 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices in London hovered around $3,340, with spot gold briefly rising above this level despite a strengthening dollar, supported by escalating trade tensions [1] - The announcement of a 50% punitive tariff on Brazil by President Trump, effective August 1, has heightened concerns over global trade, leading to increased interest in safe-haven assets like gold [3] - The Federal Reserve's officials indicated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be clear until the end of the year, with discussions of potential rate cuts in the fall [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that gold prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a key support level at $3,310, and the need to close above this level for further upward movement [4] - The resistance levels to watch are between $3,343 and $3,345, with the market currently showing a short-term bullish trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant divergence, with overall new residential prices rising by 2.3% year-on-year, while first-tier cities see a slight decline of 0.8%, second-tier cities drop by 3.1%, and third-tier cities plummet by 4.5% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In 2024, the newborn population in China is projected to be only 7.41 million, with a total fertility rate at a historic low of 1.09, indicating a potential negative population growth by 2030 [1] - The demand for housing is shifting due to technological changes, with remote work increasing to 115 million people, accounting for 14.7% of the workforce, leading to a decline in demand for urban apartments and a rise in preference for suburban homes [2] - The financial environment remains supportive for homebuyers, with the central bank lowering the LPR to a historic low of 3.35% and first-home loan rates dropping to 3.8% [4] Group 2: Price Predictions - Predictions for property value over the next five years suggest that prime properties in first-tier cities may appreciate by 10-15%, reaching 1.1 to 1.15 million yuan [6] - Strong second-tier city properties are expected to remain stable or see slight appreciation of around 5%, valued at 1 to 1.05 million yuan [6] - Ordinary residential properties in second and third-tier cities may depreciate by 10-20%, potentially valued at 800,000 to 900,000 yuan [6][8] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The rental yield has decreased from 2.1% in 2015 to 1.6% in 2025, indicating that future property value will heavily rely on capital appreciation, which may face challenges post-population peak [5] - The A-share market is currently undervalued, with the CSI 300 index PE ratio at 10.2, below the historical average of 12.8, suggesting alternative investment opportunities [4] - The rapid development of the domestic REITs market, with an average annual dividend yield of 5.7%, presents a more attractive investment channel compared to traditional housing rental returns [4] Group 4: Policy and Market Shift - The real estate market is transitioning from speculation to a focus on residential attributes, with policies emphasizing that real estate should not be used as a short-term economic stimulus tool [10] - Rational assessment of property value and diversified asset allocation, including stocks, bonds, and REITs, is recommended as a strategy to adapt to market changes [10]

Group 1 - Bitcoin surged to a historic high, surpassing $116,000, while Ethereum broke above $2,900, driven by improved global risk sentiment and accelerated institutional inflows into the crypto market [1] - The rebound in the cryptocurrency market is significantly supported by the Trump administration's public backing of digital assets, including plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve to enhance the U.S.'s long-term competitiveness in decentralized finance [2] - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has approached $3.45 trillion, with 97 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies experiencing price increases [4] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. Senate review of new digital asset legislation could profoundly impact the regulatory environment, focusing on crypto tax guidelines, custody rules, and the structure of spot Bitcoin ETFs, potentially opening greater space for institutional investment [5] - Bitcoin's price movements remain highly correlated with major U.S. stock indices, with a correlation coefficient of approximately 0.87, indicating that macroeconomic factors will continue to significantly influence the performance of the crypto market [5] - From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has broken through its previous historical high of $112,000, confirming bullish momentum and paving the way for a potential rise towards the psychological level of $125,000 [7][9] Group 3 - Ethereum is also showing strong upward momentum, currently trading above $2,800, which was a key resistance level, and if it maintains this level, it is expected to rise further in the short term [12] - The technical outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum remains broadly positive, supported by growing institutional demand and a favorable risk environment [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Gorges Water Conservancy (600116), is enhancing asset operation efficiency and optimizing strategic layout by publicly transferring its 41.0071% stake in Tian Tai Energy through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Changxing Power [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - The public transfer of the stake will have a minimum base price of 641 million yuan, which corresponds to an appraisal value provided by an evaluation agency, reflecting a 123.60% appreciation [1] - After the completion of this equity transfer, Changxing Power will no longer hold any shares in Tian Tai Energy [1] - The transaction will be conducted through a public listing process, and the trading counterpart has not yet been determined, indicating that it does not constitute a related party transaction [1] Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - This transaction does not qualify as a major asset restructuring as defined by the "Measures for the Administration of Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies" [1]

| | | --- | | A 1 4 4 4 4 4 1 | | | 国 债 期 货 交 易 数 据 国债期货 T00 TF00 T01 TF01 收盘价 108.845 105.990 108.890 106.095 涨跌（%） 0.03% 0.02% 0.03% 0.01% 资金利率 R001 R007 SHIBOR-3M 1.3870% 1.5208% 1.5590% 日度变化(BP) -11.00 2.00 0.00 货 币 市 场 国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of Panda bonds has accelerated this year, demonstrating strong capital-raising capabilities, with expectations for continued improvement and innovation in the market [1][2] - The Panda bond market is characterized by a high concentration of domestic enterprises, with foreign credit bonds accounting for only about 25% of total issuances from 2014 to June 2025 [3] - The issuance of Panda bonds is supported by favorable policies and a low domestic interest rate environment, leading to record-high issuance volumes in 2023 and 2024 [2][4] Group 2 - Panda bonds are increasingly favored by international investors due to the cost advantages of RMB financing compared to USD, especially in the context of high US Treasury yields [4][5] - The trading activity of credit Panda bonds has been rising, with the turnover rate for domestic credit Panda bonds reaching 228% in 2023, indicating growing market interest [5] - The market is expected to see more innovative Panda bond products and issuers from various countries, driven by ongoing improvements in issuance and trading rules [3][6] Group 3 - The foreign investment in China's bond market has grown significantly, with foreign holdings increasing from approximately 3.5 trillion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan from 2020 to May 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of about 12% [8] - The easing of entry for foreign investors, including reduced service fees and tax exemptions, is expected to further enhance participation in the Panda bond market [6][7] - Investors are advised to focus on high-credit-quality issuers and the initial offerings of Panda bonds, as these may present opportunities for yield compression over time [9]

随着利率持续走低，朱广生发现，波段交易的重要性愈发凸显 ——息差不断收窄，为了获取更多的收益，债券投资部门进行 波段交易的频次明显增加。而且，需要交易员更加敏锐地捕捉 市场的短期波动，把握每一个可能的获利机会。 作者：蔡越坤 封图：图虫创意 "赚0.25BP（基点）就跑！"这是朱广生在2025年以来债券交易工作日的真实工作写照。朱广生所 说的"跑"，就是卖出债券。 自2025年上半年起，"AAA"级城投债收益率降至"1时代"已成常态，相比2024年同期大幅下降50～ 100BP。7月10日，作为资产定价之锚的10年期中国国债收益率为1.6570%，30年国债收益率在2% 之下。 随着利率持续走低，朱广生发现，波段交易的重要性愈发凸显——息差不断收窄，为了获取更多的 收益，债券投资部门进行波段交易的频次明显增加。而且，需要交易员更加敏锐地捕捉市场的短期 波动，把握每一个可能的获利机会。 主要配置债市资产的银行理财产品、货币基金等资管产品，收益率也在下行。经济观察报记者发 现，1年期（国有大行）理财产品的收益率在1.20%左右，3年期理财产品的收益率为1.55%附近。 货币型基金的平均七日年化收益率已下滑至1.3 ...

结果这一枪直接打到了华尔街的要害，美股美债和美元迎来了罕见的三杀，逼得特朗普不得不马上宣布关税暂停。翻脸比翻书还快。今天我就和大家来探 讨一下，为什么特朗普让制造业回流和缩小贸易逆差这些让美国再次伟大的目标，和华尔街期待的美国股债汇的长期牛市，两者之间存在着难以调和的矛 盾。 美国再次伟大与美股美债美元 存在着不可调和的矛盾 美国政府和华尔街合力打造的 全球分工与发展的模式 威胁着特朗普 不要轻举妄动 美国再次伟大与美元资产长牛 只能二选一 欢迎点击观看 新经济学家智库 x TAIXUE x 夏春 《美国再次伟大？美元资产长牛？二选一》 >> 特朗普和华尔街 存在着难以调和的矛盾 大家好！我是夏春，在香港上善资本集团工作，也在香港的大学任教，主要分析全球宏观经济与行业变化，为客户打理全球的资产配置。 今年以来，对全球资本市场影响最深远的事就是美国总统特朗普公布了一连串让人眼花缭乱，让世界翻天覆地的政策。为了实现让美国再次伟大这个目 标，简单来说，就是让制造业回流美国，让美国的贸易逆差缩小，特朗普开出的最响一枪就是向全球，包括美国最亲密的盟友，加征高关税，对中国的关 税一度加到145%。 >> 实施高关税 华尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Xinhua Zhongxin Credit Bond Constant Proportion and Risk Parity Index Series aims to provide diversified investment targets and performance benchmarks in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the opportunity for asset allocation rebalancing [1][4]. Group 1: Index Composition and Strategy - The index series consists of two asset classes: stocks and bonds, with stock assets including the Xinhua Zhongxin Dividend Value Index and the Xinhua Zhongxin Quality Advantage Index, while bond assets include the Zhongxin 1-3 Year Credit Bond Investment Grade Preferred Index and the Zhongxin Sci-Tech Innovation Theme Credit Bond Investment Grade Index [4]. - The index series employs constant proportion and risk parity strategies for asset allocation, providing investors with tools for disciplined asset allocation and dynamic risk balancing [4][5]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - As of July 10, the Xinhua Zhongxin Dividend Value Stock-Bond Risk Parity Index has a stock asset weight of 3.64% and a bond asset weight of 96.36%, achieving an annualized return of 4.62% since its inception, with a maximum drawdown of only 1.26% [4]. - The combination of the two strategies results in a favorable risk-return profile, with higher returns compared to pure bond indices and significantly lower volatility than pure stock indices, making it suitable for institutional investors seeking absolute returns [5]. Group 3: Target Investor Segments - The index series is particularly appealing to bank wealth management subsidiaries and insurance asset management firms as a "line-drawing" asset allocation tool, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [5]. - For conservative investors, the Dividend Value Stock-Bond Combination Index offers the potential for high dividend and coupon income, while policy-sensitive funds can benefit from the Sci-Tech bond combination series, enhancing yield elasticity while considering innovation themes [5].