【导读】海外最新消息纵览！美防长称袭击哥伦比亚贩毒船致3人死亡 持续关注海外最新消息！ 市场本周将聚焦公司财报和通胀数据，包括Netflix、可口可乐、特斯拉及英特尔等在内的美股大型企 业，将陆续公布其季度财报。9月消费者价格指数（CPI）也将于本周五发布，由于政府停摆导致数据 发布中断，这份CPI报告被给予特别关注。当前市场预计，通胀仍处于高位。 法国卢浮宫8件失窃藏品清单公布 马克龙发声 据央视新闻报道，法国卢浮宫当地时间10月19日晚发布公告称，当天上午博物馆阿波罗画廊发生一起入 室盗窃案。该画廊收藏法国王室珠宝和"王冠钻石"系列。两座高安全级别展柜成为目标，共有8件具 有"无法估量历史价值"的珠宝被盗，具体包括： ·玛丽-阿梅莉王后与奥尔唐斯王后的头饰套件中的冠冕 ·玛丽-阿梅莉王后与奥尔唐斯王后的蓝宝石套装中的项链 ·玛丽-阿梅莉王后与奥尔唐斯王后的蓝宝石套装中的耳环 ·玛丽-路易丝王后的祖母绿套装中的项链 ·玛丽-路易丝王后的祖母绿套装中的耳环 巴黎检察院已就"有组织团伙盗窃"和"结伙实施犯罪"罪名立案调查。案件由巴黎警察局重案组在检方指 导下侦办。 法国总统马克龙当地时间10月19日晚就卢浮宫珠 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown continues, impacting economic data releases and complicating interest rate outlooks [3] - U.S. stock markets saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.56%, Nasdaq up 2.14%, and S&P 500 up 1.70% [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.77%, Germany's DAX 30 down 1.69%, and France's CAC 40 up 3.24% [1] Economic Data and Forecasts - The U.S. Bureau for Labor Statistics is expected to release September CPI data on October 24, which will be closely monitored due to the ongoing government shutdown [3] - HSBC anticipates that high tariffs will continue to impact inflation, particularly in import-heavy sectors [3] - The upcoming PMI data for October will be significant for assessing labor market health and consumer confidence amid the shutdown [3] Earnings Season - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with key companies like Netflix, Tesla, and Intel set to report their results [4] - Other notable companies to watch include General Electric, Honeywell, and Procter & Gamble [4] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have declined for the third consecutive week, with WTI down 2.31% to $57.54 per barrel and Brent down 2.30% to $61.29 per barrel [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a worsening oversupply of crude oil by 2026, which is pressuring prices [5] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations [5] Gold Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a pullback after reaching a historical high of $4,380 per ounce, but still recorded a weekly gain of 5.38% [5][6] - Long-term demand for gold remains supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing fiscal deficits [6] European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates until mid-next year, with potential for rate cuts rather than hikes [7] - The upcoming October PMI data is anticipated to reflect the economic impact of recent political uncertainties in France [7] UK Economic Indicators - Recent employment data from the UK showed weakness, with expectations for the September CPI data to indicate inflationary pressures [8] - The Bank of England is projected to keep rates steady until the end of the year, with potential cuts starting in February 2026 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility this week due to geopolitical tensions and policy expectations, with a shift between risk and safe-haven assets [1][3] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $4,379 before retreating over 2% to around $4,240, influenced by a more moderate stance from Trump on tariffs against China [1] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded to 98.40, ending a four-day decline, supported by comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the 2% inflation target [2] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Oil prices continued to face pressure, with WTI crude reaching a five-month low of $56.5 per barrel, driven by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over oversupply [2] - Despite short-term adjustments, central banks' ongoing accumulation of gold and the trend of de-dollarization provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data, which will be critical in determining the direction of the dollar and the stability of gold prices around the $4,200 support level [3] - The interplay between geopolitical events, such as the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions, continues to add uncertainty to market conditions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces increased downside risks to the U.S. economy, necessitating adjustments in monetary policy to return the federal funds rate to a neutral level [1][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The current trade uncertainties, particularly regarding rare earth trade tensions, have heightened risks to the economic outlook compared to a week ago [1][3] - The economic outlook itself has not deteriorated, but risks have indeed increased [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve should not engage in political issues and must maintain its independence, focusing on price stability and full employment [1] - A reasonable target range for the federal funds rate should be approximately two percentage points lower than the current range of 4.00% to 4.25% [1] - The expectation is for two more rate cuts within the year, despite a personal inclination for more aggressive cuts [2] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - The overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to decline to 2% within about a year and a half, with housing inflation likely to slow down due to reduced immigration and delayed effects of housing cost adjustments [2] Group 4: Data Dependency - The Federal Reserve aims to rely more on economic forecasts rather than solely on current data, although forecasts depend on data availability [1] - The next Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release on October 24, 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Inflation data from Sweden, Poland, and Bulgaria shows significant divergence in trends, with Sweden experiencing a notable decline, Poland stabilizing at a low level, and Bulgaria reaching a new high for 2023 [1][2][3] Sweden - Sweden's inflation rate fell to 0.9% in September, down from 1.1% in August, which is below the central bank's target of 2% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with notable slowdowns in various categories: food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 3.3% (previously 4.7%), clothing and footwear by 1.7% (previously 3.2%), and miscellaneous goods and services by 3.5% (previously 3.8%) [1] - Housing and utility prices decreased by 2.3%, while restaurant and hotel prices accelerated to a 4.1% increase [1] Poland - Poland's CPI remained stable at 2.9% in September, matching August's figure and maintaining the lowest level since June 2024 [2] - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 4.2%, while education prices dropped to 6.8% from 8.6% [2] - Transportation prices decreased by 3.8%, and the CPI showed no month-on-month change, consistent with the previous two months [2] Bulgaria - Bulgaria's CPI rose to 5.6% in September, the highest since October 2023, up from 5.3% in July and August [3] - Significant price increases were observed in entertainment and culture (19.1%), education (9.4%), and restaurant and hotel services (10.8%) [3] - The CPI decreased by 0.8% month-on-month, reversing the slight increase seen in August [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of not assuming that past market patterns will repeat, as this can lead to significant risks, particularly in the context of a potential "retail investor" market phase [1] Market Performance - The stock market showed strong performance, with the index rising above 3900 points in the afternoon session, despite minor disturbances from rumors regarding fund redemption regulations [6][7] - The bond market remained resilient, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly increasing to 1.758% [5][6] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 43.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of the same amount into the market [3] - The overall funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates around 1.31% and 1.42%, respectively [3] Economic Indicators - Inflation and financial data for September met expectations, contributing to a stable market reaction [5] - The market's response to recent economic announcements, including inflation data, was minimal, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [6][7]

评论： 通胀数据快评 PPI 环比连续两个月为 0 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月15日 事项： 10 月 15 日，国家统计局公布数据显示，中国 9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，预期-0.2%，前值-0.4%；环比 0.1%， 预期 0.2%，前值 0%。中国 9 月 PPI 同比下降 2.3%，预期下降 2.3%，前值下降 2.9%；环比继续持平。 国内价格改善迹象延续。从本期数据来看，海外通胀仍对国内价格改善起到一定支撑作用，例如 PPI 当中 偏海外定 ...

Inflation Data Summary - In September, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decrease of 0.2% and the previous value of -0.4%[2] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0%[2] - The PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year, matching expectations but improving from the previous decline of 2.9%[2] - The month-on-month PPI remained at 0 for the second consecutive month, indicating a stabilization in prices[5] Core CPI and Price Trends - Core CPI rose to 1% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of increase and the highest level since February 2024[4] - Significant increases were observed in the living goods (+2.2%) and other goods (+9.9%) categories, driven by rising household appliance prices and gold products[4] - The food CPI continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 4.4%, the worst performance since January 2024, primarily due to falling pork prices (-17.0%) and fresh vegetable prices (-13.7%)[4] Market Implications - The data indicates a divergence in price trends, with core CPI improving while food prices remain weak, suggesting underlying demand issues[8] - The PPI showed signs of improvement mainly in upstream sectors, while downstream manufacturing prices remained weak, indicating a lack of robust terminal demand[5][8] - Future price indicators may maintain resilience due to upcoming policies aimed at addressing agricultural product issues[8]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight narrowing of the decline compared to August[1] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, slightly higher than the same period last year[1] - The food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month but fell by 4.4% year-on-year, close to the August decline[5] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to narrow[2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals increased, while the decline in building materials prices narrowed[2] - The recent external uncertainty, including potential 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, has not significantly altered domestic economic and price trends[2] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI increased by 1% year-on-year in September, continuing its upward trend over the past few months[5] - Prices of durable goods, such as household appliances and communication equipment, have recently shown signs of recovery[5] - Other goods and services have seen significant price increases, influenced by rising gold prices[5]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is threatening the quality of key inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for release next month [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been instructed to recall some employees to prepare the September CPI report, but has been unable to collect new price information since the shutdown began on October 1 [1][2] - The labor-intensive nature of CPI data collection, which involves gathering information on approximately 80,000 items nationwide, is particularly impacted by the funding interruption [1] Data Collection Challenges - The BLS may resort to more estimations due to the inability to collect certain prices, as noted by former BLS officials [2] - If the shutdown continues, the BLS might adjust the weights of various categories based on longer-term price changes [2] - The collection rate of prices has declined, which poses further risks to data quality [3] Impact on Reports - Any issues with the October CPI report could affect the release of other reports, including the PCE price index, which relies on CPI data [3] - The September CPI report, initially scheduled for release, has been delayed to October 24 due to the need to recall staff for Social Security adjustments [2][3] Caution on Data Interpretation - Economists advise against overinterpreting any single data point, especially for the October report [4] - Analysts recommend a cautious approach to any anomalies in the October data [5]