Core Insights - The inflation rate in the Philippines rose to 1.7% in September, up from 1.5% in August, marking the second consecutive month of increase [1] - The average inflation rate for the first nine months of the year stands at 1.7%, which is below the government's annual target range of 2% to 4% [1] Inflation Drivers - The increase in September's inflation was primarily driven by a shift in transportation prices from a year-on-year decline of 0.3% in August to an increase of 1.0% in September [1] - Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices also contributed to the inflation rise, with the year-on-year growth rate increasing from 0.9% to 1.0% [1] Food Inflation Details - The food inflation rate in September was 0.8%, up from 0.6% in August, with vegetable prices experiencing a significant increase from 10.0% in August to 19.4% in September due to adverse weather conditions in major production areas [1] - The decline in corn prices narrowed from a year-on-year drop of 11.8% to 4.5% [1] - Food inflation contributed approximately 0.3 percentage points to the overall inflation rate [1] Core Inflation - Excluding food and energy prices, the core inflation rate for September was 2.6%, slightly lower than August's 2.7% but higher than the 2.4% recorded in the same month last year [2] Government Response - The Philippine government is committed to ensuring sufficient food supply and will allow the importation of specific vegetables such as carrots, onions, and broccoli as part of its price stabilization measures [2]

此外，报告还指出，10月澳大利亚购房时机指数环比上升0.4%，至96.5点；失业预期指数环比下降 2.9%，至127.6点；房价预期指数环比上升2.1%，至171.9点；利率预期指数环比上升15.6%，至101.7 点。 哈桑说，澳央行将于11月3日至4日举行下一次货币政策会议。鉴于通胀率已经处于澳央行目标区间之 内，且货币政策仍略显紧缩，澳央行有望进一步降息。不过，澳央行对货币政策调整持谨慎态度，尤其 是在通胀数据好于预期的情况下，因此11月是否降息还不能确定。但他认为，澳央行拖延进一步降息的 时间越长，最终降息幅度超过当前预期的可能性就越大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告指出，过去2个月该指数共下滑6.5%，回吐了5月至8月期间因降息而受到提振的全部涨幅。10月消 费者信心指数显示，澳大利亚的消费者信心陷入了"坚定悲观"状态，不过信心指数仍然高于澳大利亚处 于生活成本危急期间的水平。 西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观经济预测主管马修·哈桑表示，近期发布的经济数据显示，澳大利亚的通胀 率已回升至澳大利亚央行设定的2-3%这一目标区间的顶部，同时该国消费需求走强，房地产市场出现 回暖迹象。这些似乎引发了人们对货币政策 ...

Core Points - The Eurozone's inflation rate for September is reported at 2.2%, an increase from 2.0% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank's medium-term target [1] - Key contributors to inflation include a 3.0% rise in food and tobacco prices, a 3.2% increase in service prices, and a 0.8% rise in non-energy industrial goods, while energy prices decreased by 0.4% [1] - The core inflation rate, excluding energy, food, and tobacco, remains stable at 2.3%, unchanged from August [1] Country-Specific Data - Inflation rates for major EU economies in September are as follows: Germany at 2.4%, France at 1.1%, Italy at 1.8%, and Spain at 3.0% [1] Central Bank Response - European Central Bank President Lagarde expressed the intention to maintain inflation at ideal levels and indicated the bank's capability to respond to any changes in inflation risks or new shocks to the target [1] - The European Central Bank decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged on September 11, following eight rate cuts since the beginning of the rate reduction process in June 2024, with the last decision to maintain rates occurring in July [1]

Economic Performance - Thailand's economy remains weak as of August, with private consumption slowing down and agricultural income decreasing by 10.8% year-on-year [1] - The consumer confidence index dropped from 51.7 to 50.1, indicating concerns over high living costs and geopolitical tensions [1] - Private investment in the capital goods sector saw a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, while new commercial vehicle registrations fell by 10.5% [1] Export and Tourism - August exports reached $27.7 billion, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of growth [1] - The number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand decreased by 12.8% year-on-year, while domestic tourism increased by 6.4% with 22.4 million Thai citizens traveling domestically [1] Industrial and Inflation Indicators - The industrial sentiment index slightly declined from 86.6 to 86.4 due to border conflicts and uncertainties related to U.S. tariff policies [1] - The purchasing managers' index rose to 52.7, reflecting an increase in new orders [1] Economic Stability - Overall economic stability remains good, with an inflation rate of -0.79% and a core inflation rate of 0.81% in August [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP stood at 64.5% as of July, compliant with fiscal discipline requirements [2] - International reserves reached $267.4 billion by the end of August, indicating strong external stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has downgraded Cambodia's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 6.1% to 4.9% and for 2026 from 6.2% to 5.0% due to tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border and uncertainties regarding exports to the United States [1] Economic Growth Projections - ADB expects Cambodia's economy to maintain robust growth by 2026, supported by strong industrial activity and stable foreign direct investment [1] - The Cambodian economy showed resilience in the first half of 2025, aided by lower-than-expected food price increases and declining fuel costs, which helped ease inflation [1] Inflation and Industrial Growth - Cambodia's inflation rate significantly decreased from 6.0% in January to 1.6% in June this year, with an average inflation rate forecast of 2.0% for 2025 and 2026 [1] - The industrial sector is projected to be the main engine of economic growth, with expected growth rates of 7.9% in 2025 and a rebound to 8.3% in 2026 [1] Service and Tourism Sector Outlook - ADB predicts a slowdown in the service sector growth to 2.8% in 2025 and further to 2.6% in 2026, impacted by the ongoing tensions at the Cambodia-Thailand border [2] - The tourism sector has been recovering due to an increase in visitors from China, but the border tensions are expected to suppress tourism development and broader service sector activities in the latter half of the year [2] Agricultural Sector Forecast - The agricultural sector is expected to grow by 1.1% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by sustained export demand and the return of agricultural labor from Thailand in the second half of the year [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Jefferson predicts a decline in inflation rates next year, with expectations to reach 2% in the coming years [1] Group 1 - Jefferson's statement indicates a positive outlook for inflation management, suggesting that economic conditions may stabilize [1] - The forecast of inflation reaching 2% aligns with the Federal Reserve's long-term goals for price stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, following a series of rate hikes and subsequent reductions since May 2022, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic Conditions - Australia's inflation has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the underlying inflation rate and overall inflation rate now within the target range of 2%-3% [1]. - Despite the positive inflation trend, recent data suggests that the inflation rate for the third quarter may exceed the RBA's previous expectations made in August [1]. - The Australian economy is experiencing higher-than-expected growth rates and inflation, which may enhance household consumption willingness, allowing businesses to pass on rising costs to customers [2]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The RBA acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of monetary policy easing, the balance between potential supply and total demand, and the labor market conditions [2]. - The RBA believes that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the signs of private demand recovery and the overall stability of the labor market [2]. - The RBA retains sufficient policy space to respond to significant impacts on economic activity and inflation from international developments, focusing on achieving price stability and full employment [2].

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - France's inflation rate increased to 1.1% in September, up from 0.8% in August, but remains below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% [1] - The Eurozone's inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.2% in September, with Italy and Germany set to release their data shortly [1] - The service sector's inflation rate in France rose to 2.4% in September from 2.1% in August, driven by rising healthcare costs and smaller declines in telecom expenses [1] Group 2: Government and Fiscal Challenges - France is facing a long-term public finance political crisis, with the government collapsing for the second time in less than a year [2] - Uncertainty remains regarding how the French government will address the growing debt burden, impacting investment and spending by businesses and households [3] - Consumer spending in France grew by only 0.1% month-on-month in August, below the forecast of 0.2%, with July's data revised down from -0.3% to -0.6% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slightly raised its growth forecast for developing Asian economies in 2023 due to strong economic expansion in the first half of the year, but ongoing trade headwinds cast a shadow over the outlook [1] Economic Growth Forecast - ADB projects the economic growth rate for the region in 2025 to be 4.8%, a slight increase from the 4.7% forecast in July, but still below the initial estimate of 4.9% made in April [1] - The growth in the first half of 2025 is expected to be 5.4%, surpassing the 4.9% growth anticipated for the second half of 2024, driven by preemptive exports of electronics and AI-related products to avoid high tariffs [1] Inflation Outlook - ADB predicts that the inflation rate for the region in 2025 will decrease to 1.7%, down from the April estimate of 2.3%, with a potential slight increase to 2.1% in 2026 [1]

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Stephen Miran emphasizes the necessity for significant interest rate cuts to achieve a neutral rate that neither stimulates nor hinders economic growth [1][2] - Miran's stance is based on an assessment of the Trump administration's policies, which he believes have lowered the necessary interest rates to combat inflation, suggesting that the current benchmark rate is too high [1] - Miran has indicated that he may continue to vote against the Federal Reserve's decisions if they do not align with his views on the need for substantial rate cuts [1] Group 2 - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials warning about limited room for further easing in the context of high inflation [2] - Recent economic data, including a notable increase in Q2 economic growth and steady consumer spending, has contributed to policymakers' hesitance regarding immediate rate cuts [2] - Some economists acknowledge that while Miran's logic has merit, they question whether the neutral rate is as low as he claims, suggesting that if it were, the economy and financial markets would have already faced severe downturns [2]