日本央行6月季度调查：日本家庭预计五年后通胀率平均将上升9.9%，中值为5.0%。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reaffirm a cautious policy stance, with market expectations for a rate cut in July being low [1] - Key upcoming economic indicators include the U.S. June CPI and PPI data, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, and speeches from Fed officials [1] Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve noted that while inflation has eased in recent months, it remains above the long-term target of 2%, with short-term inflation expectations still high [1] - Economic growth is described as robust, with low unemployment rates and stable consumer and investment data, although risks from trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and tariff increases persist [1] Labor Market Data - For the week ending July 5, initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 227,000, slightly below the expected 235,000, with the previous value revised from 233,000 to 232,000 [1] International Economic Indicators - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,317.4 billion, rising by $32.2 billion or 0.98% from the end of May [1] - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [1] Upcoming Events - On July 14, President Trump plans to make a "major statement" regarding Russia [1] - Key economic data releases include China's Q2 GDP year-on-year on July 15 and U.S. June CPI year-on-year on the same day [1] - Additional important events include U.S. June PPI year-on-year on July 16 and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on July 17 [1]

Group 1 - The US has decided to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, significantly impacting global copper trade dynamics [1] - China, as the largest copper consumer, relies heavily on imports, with 94% of its copper needs met through foreign sources [1] - The tariff is expected to primarily affect Chile, Canada, and Mexico, which are major suppliers to the US [1] Group 2 - Copper is viewed as a leading economic indicator, with price fluctuations potentially signaling economic growth or recession [2] - China's refined copper imports have remained stable, with a 7.4% year-on-year increase in copper ore and concentrate imports in the first five months of the year [2] - China's refined copper production has increased significantly, reaching 1.36 million tons last year, a 4.1% increase from the previous year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is to hold long positions with short - term shock consolidation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of crude oil is shock consolidation, and long positions are recommended to be held [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI August crude oil futures closed down $1.81 per barrel, a 2.65% decline, at $66.57 per barrel; Brent September crude oil futures closed down $1.55 per barrel, a 2.21% decline, at $68.64 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures closed down 7.50 yuan per barrel, a 1.44% decline, at 512.80 yuan per barrel [1] Industry News - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [2] - The EU Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap for Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [2] - As of the week ending July 4, the total US natural gas inventory was 3006 billion cubic feet, an increase of 53 billion cubic feet from the previous week, a 5.8% year - on - year decrease, and 6.1% higher than the 5 - year average [2] - OPEC + is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase. It has a preliminary plan to complete the last stage of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels [2] - The UAE Energy Minister said that the country can increase oil production capacity after 2027 and achieve a capacity of 6 million barrels per day [2] - OPEC lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years but raised the long - term demand forecast. It expects global oil demand to reach 122.9 million barrels per day in 2050 [2][5] - As of the week ending July 9, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose 1.328 million barrels to a 29 - week high of 24.708 million barrels [5] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 5 was 227,000, lower than the expected 235,000 [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [4]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) must retain all policy options due to significant economic uncertainty, with no pre-commitment or exclusion of further rate cuts [1][4] - Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's governing council, emphasized the need for caution in policy-making, highlighting the resilience of the economy against various adverse factors but acknowledging future uncertainties [1][4] - The ECB has cut rates eight times since June 2024, and the market expects the upcoming meeting on July 24 to maintain rates unchanged [1][4] Group 2 - Despite inflation being around the 2% target, concerns remain about the risk of long-term inflation rates falling below this target, with predictions indicating CPI data will remain below 2% for the next 18 months [3] - Nagel reiterated that the low inflation forecast for 2026 is primarily due to base effects rather than fundamental economic issues, expressing optimism about maintaining inflation around the target in the medium term [3] - The ECB's strategy evaluation indicates a commitment to act decisively when inflation is significantly above or below the target, while large-scale asset purchases should remain an absolute exception due to risks to the central bank's balance sheet [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea expects the inflation rate to remain around 2%, while risks related to the real estate market and household debt have increased [1] Economic Outlook - Future inflation levels may be influenced by domestic and international economic conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, global oil price volatility, and government price stabilization measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's staff anticipates that the real GDP growth for 2025 will be higher than previously forecasted, while the inflation rate is expected to be lower than earlier predictions [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Economic Growth - The Federal Reserve staff projects an increase in the actual GDP growth for 2025 compared to earlier estimates [1] Inflation Expectations - The anticipated inflation rate for 2025 is expected to be lower than previous forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly decided to maintain the interest rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a reduction to 3.60% [1][2] Group 1: RBA Decision and Economic Indicators - The RBA stated it needs more time to assess inflation data before making any changes to the interest rate [1] - The RBA is waiting for more information to confirm that the inflation rate will sustainably reach 2.5% [1] - Australia's inflation rate in May was reported at 2.1%, the lowest level since October 2024, while the first quarter inflation rate was 2.4%, maintaining a four-year low [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the RBA's decision, the S&P/ASX 200 index fell by 0.24%, while the Australian dollar (AUD) rose by over 1% due to the unexpected decision [1] - The AUD/USD exchange rate has been forming a downward channel since early July, indicating significant resistance at the upper boundary of this channel [1] - There is a possibility for the AUD/USD to retrace towards the middle of the downward channel, suggesting that the market's initial reaction to the RBA's decision may have been hasty [2]

新西兰联储表示，通胀率可能在2025年中期升至1%-3%目标区间的上限。 这可能会减缓新西兰经济复苏的步伐，减轻通胀压力。 全球政策不确定性加剧，关税预计将降低全球经济增长。 ...

新西兰联储：随着经济中闲置的生产能力和国内通胀压力的下降，整体通胀率预计将保持在区间内，到 2026年初将恢复到2%左右。 ...