Group 1: Investment Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals - The allocation ratio of funds to the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 1.07 percentage points to 4.59% in Q1 2025, with copper, gold, and aluminum being the key focus for increased allocation [1] - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 8.11% from the beginning of 2025 to May 30, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10.52 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industry indices [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the non-ferrous metals sector is projected to be 141.46 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.01%, while Q1 2025 net profit is expected to reach 45.27 billion yuan, a 70.2% increase year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - Multiple factors are contributing to the rise in gold prices, including the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to enhance liquidity and benefit gold [2] - Gold's investment value is highlighted by rising inflation expectations in the U.S., alongside ongoing tariff uncertainties that increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - Geopolitical risks and major central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves are anticipated to further push gold prices upward [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics for rare earths are marginally improving, driven by policies promoting new energy vehicles and home appliances, which are expected to increase demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials [3] - The domestic control over rare earth mining growth is slowing, and while imports from Myanmar have temporarily recovered, future import stability remains uncertain due to seasonal factors [3] - Export controls on heavy rare earths implemented in April 2025 are expected to drive up overseas rare earth prices, which will likely lead to domestic price increases [3] Group 4: Copper and Aluminum Market Fundamentals - The aluminum sector is supported by ongoing domestic policies, with high demand expected from the power grid, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles, while supply growth is anticipated to slow down [4] - Short-term uncertainties remain due to tariff disruptions and economic fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for aluminum prices is upward due to supply constraints [4] - The copper market faces short-term supply disruptions and long-term constraints due to declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, which are expected to support copper prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict is expected to increase inflation levels in Israel and delay the central bank's interest rate cut cycle, with the first cut now anticipated to be postponed from September to November [1] Group 1 - The war's impact is projected to push inflation higher in Israel [1] - The central bank's timeline for interest rate cuts has been adjusted, with the first expected cut now moved to November instead of September [1]

周三（6月18日）欧市盘中，现货黄金区间小幅波动，截至发稿报3386.70美元/盎司，跌幅0.03%，今日金价开盘于3389.65美元/盎司，最高上探 3399.79美元/盎司，最低触及3370.55美元/盎司。 黄金本周走的行情与消息面或者说是市场预期相背驰，地缘冲突的影响下，上周五金价拉涨后周末持续发酵在周一高开后一路走跌。小时级别上 低点是在不断的下移，3400成了短期的阻力压制关口，现在金价虽然在3452走跌，但是明显在3380附近来回走震荡（周二有两次快速下跌，但很 快又拉涨回来）。在消息面没有完全与数据公布在即金价理应还存在一波拉涨的可能，周四美盘休市，初请数据也提前一天公布。 黄金走势分析：4小时当前macd高位死叉放量，灵动指标sto超卖运行，代表4小时的震荡走势。而4小时当前布林带三轨缩口也代表着区间压缩。 目前4小时上方压制位于中轨和均线MA10的粘合点3404-3409一线，而支撑对应的均线MA30和MA10附近3380-3363一线。从目前4小时来讲如果 价格要直接下跌，反弹就不会超过3420-3422.5一线。黄金1小时线当前macd死叉缩量粘合，灵动指标sto向下运行，代表小时线继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Israel and Iran poses a risk to central banks' move towards lower interest rates, as escalating tensions could disrupt oil production and maintain high inflation levels [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Market Impact - Israel's recent attacks on Iran have raised concerns among investors about the potential for long-term conflict and its implications for oil production [1] - The possibility of rising oil prices could complicate the interest rate reduction cycles of major global central banks [1] Economic Implications - The ongoing tensions may lead to sustained inflationary pressures, which would hinder the ability of central banks to lower interest rates as planned [1]

Group 1 - The Eurozone economy showed strong performance in Q1 2025, with GDP growth of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest quarterly growth since Q4 2022 [1][2] - Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5% year-on-year, while the EU overall grew by 1.6%, with Ireland recording the highest growth rate at 9.7% [1][2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to pause its interest rate cuts in July, as indicated by ECB President Lagarde, with analysts predicting the last rate cut may occur in September [2] Group 2 - Final household consumption expenditure in the Eurozone and EU grew by only 0.2%, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous quarter [2] - Investment in fixed capital formation saw a robust growth of 1.8% in both the Eurozone and EU, significantly higher than the previous quarter [2] - The ECB has not made significant adjustments to its macroeconomic forecasts, projecting real GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027, with inflation expected to average 2.0% in 2025 [2]

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with current rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% for deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates respectively [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The ECB's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations and signals a potential pause in the current easing cycle, depending on future economic data [1][6] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the current monetary policy cycle is entering a new phase, with future rate movements contingent on economic performance [1][5] - Following the announcement, market expectations for further rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 30% to around 20% [1][6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased, with the May harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target for the first time in eight months, aided by falling energy prices and a stronger euro [2][3] - Economic growth remains weak, with GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025 driven mainly by temporary export effects from Germany and Spain, while service sector activity is contracting [3][6] - Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes contribute to economic uncertainty, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts to mitigate external shocks [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts, projecting an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause rate cuts in July, with the next meeting in September potentially being the last opportunity for a cut, depending on economic conditions and inflation trends [6][7] - The market anticipates a limited further rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, followed by a period of observation [6][7]

欧洲央行管委森特诺：货币政策正处于降息周期。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，爱沙尼亚央行行长、欧洲央行管理委员会成员马迪斯·穆勒表示，该行正接近本轮 降息周期的尾声，而另一位同僚则宣称通胀已被战胜。欧洲央行于当地时间6月5日宣布下调存款利率25 个基点至2%，符合市场普遍预期。 就在欧洲央行宣布一年内第八次降息的次日，穆勒在接受采访时表示："拉加德行长昨日的总结很精辟 ——我们可能已基本完成本轮降息周期。至于未来走势，目前还没有人能给出确切答案。" 周四的货币政策会议决定将存款利率下调至2%，使本轮累计降息幅度达到200个基点。据知情人士透 露，决策层目前考虑在7月暂停行动，部分官员甚至认为始于2024年6月的宽松周期已经终结。 由于美国总统特朗普的贸易政策影响，通胀前景仍存在高度不确定性。欧洲央行在发布新季度预测时， 同步呈现了温和与严峻两种情景，突显极端不可预测性。 法国央行行长弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛则对消费者价格走势给出更乐观解读，甚至宣称欧洲央行已完 成使命。 "我们打赢了抗击通胀的战役，"他表示，"法国通胀率现已低于1%，欧洲整体为1.9%，我们预测今年将 达2%。" 维勒鲁瓦指出，与美国不同，欧元区尚未出现关税引发的价格效应。 他分析道，"加征关税 ...

智通财经6月6日电，欧洲央行管委穆勒表示，可以对目前通胀水平感到满意，同意拉加德的观点，即 （降息）周期已接近尾声。 ...