以下文章来源于富国基金 ，作者填志愿 富国基金 . 因此，最近各个社交平台都上演着"志愿填报血泪史"，小编看到不少家长和考生线上发帖，有纠 结"专业如何选"、"热门专业是哪些"，也有焦虑"冲一冲会不会滑档"、"985有点坑的专业VS双非王 牌专业如何选"……刷着这些充满困惑的讨论，小编深有感触：无论是选学校选专业，还是选基金， 一定程度上可以说都是对未来的投资，细细品味，其实这志愿填报和买基金的弯弯绕绕颇有异曲同 工之处~ ★ 第一波 ★ 难选程度——眼花缭乱？ 高考选择院校、专业之难，就如同选基一样，通过下面这组数据可见数量之繁多。 志愿填报： 根据教育部2025年最新发布的普通高等学校本科专业目录，共包含93个专业类，845种专业， 其中今年新设了29种新专业，分别涉及区域国别学、碳中和科学与工程、海洋科学与技术、 航空运动、智能分子工程、人工智能教育等方向。同时，截至2024年6月20日，全国高等学校 共计3117所，其中普通高等学校2868所。可见院校林立，选择维度之复杂。 选基： 截至2025年6月25日，数据显示，共有12869只公募基金（仅含主代码），其中非货12499 只，基金经理共有4043 ...

Group 1: Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - The domestic macroeconomic environment is expected to continue the weak recovery trend observed in the first half of the year [3] - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to maintain strong performance in the second half, with equipment purchase growth supported by policies exceeding 15% year-on-year, particularly in manufacturing investment [4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to show over 10% high growth, playing a counter-cyclical role [4] - External trade may weaken but is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with a trade surplus increase of $135.6 billion year-on-year from January to May 2025 [9] - Consumption growth is projected to improve compared to 2024, driven by increased public fiscal spending and government consumption [11][13] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization in some first-tier cities, despite overall weakness in the sector [14] Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - After a period of adjustment, bond market yields have once again declined, with a cautious outlook for the future [19] - The 10-year government bond yield has been hovering around 1.60%, with significant adjustments due to rising funding costs and a negative carry phenomenon [20][22] - The current monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with potential interest rate cuts exceeding 30 basis points in 2025 [27] Group 3: Stock Market Insights - The stock market has successfully formed a bottom, with a notable wealth effect observed post-Spring Festival, particularly in Hong Kong stocks [28] - The A-share market has shown resilience during downturns, maintaining a solid bottom [34] - Following the tariff adjustments, the stock market has experienced a second wave of growth, with sectors such as comprehensive finance and communication leading the way [44] Group 4: U.S. Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's target, with the CPI year-on-year growth at 2.4% as of May 2025 [50] - The U.S. job market remains stable, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations [56] - The U.S. debt ceiling has been breached, with ongoing negotiations in Congress to address the issue [63][65] - The U.S. capital markets are experiencing significant volatility, with a notable weakening of the U.S. dollar and a strengthening of gold as a safe-haven asset [69][81]

Group 1 - Jamie Dimon's warnings about the U.S. bond market highlight concerns over unsustainable fiscal policies and accumulating debt risks, predicting potential crises within 6 months to 6 years due to rising fiscal deficits and the effects of quantitative easing [1][2] - The U.S. government's combination of large tax cuts, trade protectionism, and fluctuating monetary policies has weakened market confidence in long-term stability, with Dimon attributing these issues to inefficiencies in governance rather than external competition [2][4] - Morgan Stanley's strategic move to increase its stake in Alibaba reflects a shift towards alternative assets amid uncertainties in the U.S. bond market, with Alibaba's continued innovation in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital payments seen as core value drivers [3][4] Group 2 - Dimon's assessment suggests that if U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, the sovereign credit risk premium will rise, making Chinese tech companies like Alibaba more attractive [4][5] - Alibaba's global expansion and increasing penetration in the digital economy position it as an ideal hedge against U.S. policy risks, supported by resilient consumer market growth in China [4][5] - The dual strategy of warning about the bond market while investing in Alibaba indicates a complex adaptation to the evolving economic landscape, with potential benefits for Morgan Stanley amid a crisis [5][7]

Market Overview - The stock and bond markets are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight tilt towards the bond market as equity assets take a breather after three consecutive days of gains [2] - Major stock indices showed minor declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 down by 0.22% and 0.35% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [2] - In the bond market, yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1.1 basis points and 1.5 basis points to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [2] Commodity Performance - Internationally, oil and gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts rising by less than 1% [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, indicating a recovery in refining activities and stable end-user consumption [3] - Domestic commodities saw a positive response from the black series due to favorable policies, with coking coal and coke prices increasing by 3.60% and 1.86% respectively [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank is increasingly protective as the quarter-end approaches, with a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan through reverse repos, bringing the total net injection since June 24 to over 70 billion yuan [4][5] - Despite the central bank's efforts, the cost of funds is rising, with the pricing of non-bank 7-day instruments showing an increase [4][5] Equity Market Dynamics - The equity market is experiencing marginal corrections, with the total trading volume decreasing to 1.62 trillion yuan, down 163 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - There is a notable shift in sentiment, with some funds showing profit-taking behavior, as indicated by a net outflow of 3.7 billion yuan from stock ETFs [7][8] - The implied volatility in the market has significantly decreased, suggesting a withdrawal of bullish expectations among investors [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector continues to perform well, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.01%, while the non-bank financial sector saw a decline of 1.20% [10] - The communication sector also showed strength, with the corresponding SW Index up by 0.77% [10] - The defense and military sector is driven by expectations surrounding the September military parade, with the SW Defense Industry Index increasing by 0.55% [10] Future Outlook - The current market rally is temporarily stalled, but the bullish sentiment remains intact, indicating potential for future rebounds despite the likelihood of adjustments [11] - Structural opportunities may become more significant as the difficulty of betting on index movements increases, with particular attention on consumer goods, military, and technology sectors [11]

Core Insights - The latest fund market data from Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges shows that as of May 2025, the total number of ETFs in Shanghai is 691 with a total market value exceeding 3 trillion yuan, while Shenzhen has 483 ETFs with a total market value exceeding 1 trillion yuan, leading to a combined ETF scale of over 4.1 trillion yuan, indicating a steady increase from the previous month [1] Group 1 - The competitive landscape of the ETF business in China is dominated by traditional leading brokerages such as China Galaxy Securities and CITIC Securities, which maintain their positions in the first tier due to their comprehensive strengths [1] - There is potential for public funds to further diversify their product lines, expanding into areas such as QDII funds, commodity index funds, long-short public equity funds, and off-market REITs funds, which would help residents build a more comprehensive asset allocation portfolio [1]

"新"向未来——平安基金2025年中期投资策略会于6月25日-26日举行，多位行业专家对当前经济形势、 热门行业发展前景、资产配置等话题展开探讨。中泰金融国际有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷在本次会议 上作题为《外部环境不利影响加大下，中国经济走势与政策选择》的主旨演讲，深刻剖析了在特朗普 2.0时代"反秩序性"冲击下，中国经济面临的内外挑战与破局路径。李迅雷指出，随着全球步入高震 荡、低增长的新常态，中国亟需通过政策创新激活内循环潜力，并在资产配置中把握历史性机遇。 外部系统性冲击正在形成 在震荡中布局确定性 全球经济正步入高震荡、低增长时代，这一趋势对中国经济产生了深远影响。李迅雷指出，全球收入与 财富分化加剧，主要经济体前1%和10%的居民财富占比持续攀升，这种分化导致社会矛盾加剧，经济 政策的不确定性上升。 在外部环境变差的背景下，中国经济内循环面临诸多挑战。李迅雷指出，美国对华关税政策的不确定 性，可能导致中国出口下滑，进而影响经济增长、就业和企业盈利。此外，出口下降可能加剧产能过剩 问题，进一步抑制制造业投资，而消费市场的疲软也难以在短期内有效弥补外需的不足。 在当前局势下，资产如何配置成为市场关注的焦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of yield swaps as a flexible and customizable financial tool for risk management and asset allocation in capital markets, aiming to enhance understanding among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Risk Management - Yield swaps serve as a sophisticated financial derivative that provides qualified institutional investors with risk management and asset allocation services [2]. - They help manage market risks associated with underlying asset prices, such as controlling entry costs and reducing price volatility risks [2]. - For entities with hedging needs, yield swaps can create positions that counterbalance the spot market, allowing for effective risk hedging across different markets and timeframes [2][3]. Group 2: Customization and Flexibility - Yield swaps are characterized by high customization, allowing investors to tailor contract terms such as duration, scale, asset class, and transaction direction to meet specific risk management needs [3]. - This customization enables precise risk management, balancing risk and return in complex environments, unlike standardized futures contracts which may not meet diverse investor requirements [3]. Group 3: Comprehensive Risk Management Solutions - Securities firms can leverage yield swap services to address domestic and international risk management needs, offering integrated services from trading to risk control and settlement [4]. - Companies facing various risks, such as raw material price fluctuations and interest rate changes, can utilize yield swaps to lock in costs and profits, mitigating adverse impacts on operational performance [4]. Group 4: Diversification and Stability - Yield swaps facilitate cross-market and cross-product asset allocation, promoting risk diversification and enhancing portfolio stability [5]. - By linking to diverse global assets, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, yield swaps help reduce concentration risk associated with single market investments [5]. - The unique risk-return characteristics of different linked assets can provide a buffering effect during market volatility, thereby improving overall portfolio resilience [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant surge in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions and changing monetary policies, with gold being viewed as a safe-haven asset amidst uncertainty [2][4][6] - Gold prices reached a new high, surpassing $3,400 per ounce, with a notable increase of over $60 in a single day due to renewed conflicts in the Middle East [2][4] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 95% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking a historical high [6][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the role of gold as a "ballast" in asset allocation, emphasizing its ability to diversify risk and act as a stabilizer during market downturns [9][11] - Gold's unique properties, such as scarcity and independence from government credit, enhance its appeal as a hard currency in a changing global monetary landscape [11][13] - The article outlines various investment methods in gold, with gold ETFs being highlighted as the most accessible and efficient option for ordinary investors [14][19][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of rational investment strategies in gold, particularly in high-price environments, and suggests that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for wealth preservation [20] - It notes that gold's price performance is often negatively correlated with traditional financial assets, making it a crucial component in mitigating overall portfolio risk [9][11] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and shifts in monetary policy are expected to continue influencing gold prices, reinforcing its status as a valuable asset in uncertain times [4][20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global economic outlook for 2025, highlighting a complex and fragile environment with high uncertainty and frequent shocks. The global market is expected to oscillate between policy reversals and recession concerns [3][5]. Core Economic Insights - **United States**: Core growth momentum is gradually weakening, with negative policy impacts becoming more pronounced. The economy recorded a negative GDP growth of -0.3% in Q1, primarily due to tariff impacts and reduced consumer spending [3][18][19]. - **Europe**: Limited macroeconomic improvement is noted, with Germany's fiscal deficit temporarily boosting confidence, but consumer investment remains low. The European Central Bank is expected to have 1-2 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [4]. - **Japan**: High inflation continues to suppress economic recovery, with wage growth offset by inflationary pressures. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again before the end of 2025 [4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - **U.S. Stocks**: The S&P 500 may test previous highs around 6150, but volatility is expected, particularly influenced by inflation and fiscal risks [5]. - **U.S. Bonds**: Long-term yields are anticipated to remain high, fluctuating between 4.2%-4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [5]. - **Dollar**: The DXY index is expected to soften to around 95 in the latter half of 2025 [5]. - **Japanese Market**: The Nikkei 225 index is projected to fluctuate between 36,000-40,000 points [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Continued bullish outlook on gold, with recommendations to buy on dips [5]. Consumer and Employment Trends - **Consumer Spending**: There is a slowdown in consumer spending driven by wage growth deceleration and diminishing pre-consumption effects. Leading indicators are nearing levels seen during the subprime mortgage crisis [6][22]. - **Inflation Pressures**: Rising upstream costs are expected to translate into retail price increases, with CPI potentially returning to 3% by mid-year [6][28]. - **Employment Market**: Job cuts in mid-to-high-end positions are increasing, with a decline in support for service and government employment. The unemployment rate is projected to rise but remain below historical averages [32][34][35]. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Insights - **Fiscal Deficit Risks**: The "Great Beautiful" policy under the Trump administration is expected to expand the deficit, pushing long-term bond yields higher [6]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with potential rate cuts in late 2025. The market anticipates about 3 rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 to early 2026 [41][45]. - **Tariff Impacts**: Tariffs are raising import costs, leading to retail price adjustments. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to elevate inflation expectations [29][31]. Additional Considerations - **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The overall economic trajectory suggests a balance of risks and opportunities, necessitating careful navigation of frequent shocks and ongoing volatility [5]. - **Tax Policy Changes**: The recent tax reforms favoring the wealthy and corporations may exacerbate income inequality and fiscal pressures, with significant implications for low-income households and social spending [52]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets are experiencing volatility due to ongoing policy disturbances and structural changes, with a focus on the relationship between transformation and balance, as well as risk and return [1][2]. Policy Environment - A series of incremental policies have been introduced to stabilize market expectations and boost investor confidence, covering fiscal, financial, consumption, and investment areas [2][3]. - Since September 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 20%, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [2]. Market Dynamics - The current macro environment is favorable for both equity and bond markets, with ongoing policy support and a positive economic structural transition [3][4]. - Investors are encouraged to consider "fixed income plus" products, which combine stable fixed income assets with some equity exposure to enhance returns [3][5]. Investment Strategies - For bond funds, the overall performance has been weaker compared to previous years, necessitating new strategies to enhance fund returns [5][6]. - Investors should adjust their portfolios based on their risk tolerance, with options ranging from cash-like assets for low-risk tolerance to "fixed income plus" products for moderate risk tolerance [6][7]. Fund Selection - Different types of fixed income funds exist, including pure bond funds categorized by duration and credit quality, which exhibit varying levels of volatility [7][8]. - Investors should prioritize funds with a history of stable performance and consider factors such as lock-up periods and fees when selecting products [8].