编者按： 三十余载砥砺前行，中国资管行业从初步探索到如今跻身全球前列，与经济的蓬勃发展和制度的日趋完善密不可 分。在此期间，公募与私募协同发展的多元生态为资本市场的鼎新革故注入了核心动力，二者的发展始终与国家 改革同频共振，与经济发展浪潮同向而行，与产业升级齐头并进。 站在"十五五"开启的历史节点，党的二十届四中全会明确的"高质量发展取得显著成效、科技自立自强水平大幅提 高"等目标，为资本市场赋予了更重使命。中国证券投资基金业协会与证券时报·券商中国携手推出本次联名报道， 特别邀请多家国内头部公私募基金高管，从制度创新、市场演进、投资实践等多维度建言献策。 党的二十届四中全会对"十五五"时期加快建设金融强国提出明确要求、作出战略部署，为扎实高效做好"十五 五"时期金融工作提供了基本遵循。南方基金党委书记陈莉表示，公司将深入学习宣传贯彻全会精神作为当前 和今后一个时期的一项重大政治任务，以实际行动诠释国有金融企业的政治担当。 陈莉表示，首先，大力发展权益类基金是优化资本市场投资者结构、提高市场活力和提升市场效率的重要力 量，是实现资本市场量的合理增长和质的有效提升的必然要求。南方基金深刻把握发展权益基金对提振和 ...

关注集思录微信 特别提示 本文不构成任何投资建议，仅为信息分享。任何因本文导致的投资行为发生的亏损，本公众 号及作者概不承担任何责任。 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少， 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情， 我要保守， 26年能挣 5%我就满足了。 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% 去年年底我想 25年这一年涨了不少 还依稀记得24年惨淡的行情 我要保守 26年能挣5%我就 满足了 这开年第一周，科创板指数都已经涨了10% 连转债等权指数都涨了5.44% | | 指数涨幅统计(刷新) 历史数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | | 本日涨幅 本周涨幅 本月涨幅 本季涨幅 本年涨幅 | | | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 1803.40 | 2.09% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | 10.19% | | 000688 | 科创50 | 1475.97 | 1.43% | 9.80% | 9.80% | 9.80 ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on January 9, 2026 [3][4] Market Interest Rate - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a 0.21bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.47 with a 1.15bp increase [4] - GC001 closed at 1.12 with a 50.00bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.48 with a 5.50bp decrease [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.60 with a 0.20bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond remained at 1.34; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.65 with a 0.70bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.88 with a 0.60bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.15 with a 0.30bp increase [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 286 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 5288 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 5002 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 13236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 11000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases will mature on Thursday, and 600 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Friday [5] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 4738 with a 0.82% decrease; the SSE 50 closed at 3122 with a 0.73% decrease; the CSI 500 closed at 7895 with a 0.25% increase; the CSI 1000 closed at 7972 with a 0.82% increase [6] - The trading volume of IF increased by 6.2% to 119688, and the open interest increased by 2.1% to 288744; the trading volume of IH decreased by 5.7% to 44844, and the open interest increased by 1.0% to 91182; the trading volume of IC decreased by 1.1% to 147847, and the open interest decreased by 2.7% to 294237; the trading volume of IM increased by 10.4% to 196014, and the open interest increased by 0.8% to 374177 [6] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the market sentiment cooled slightly, the commodity market weakened significantly, and the stock index fluctuated with a contraction in trading volume [7] - In the short term, the stock index is expected to remain in a bullish pattern. In 2026, with continuous macro - policy support, moderate inflation recovery, capital market reform, and the role of Central Huijin, the stock index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025. It is recommended that investors take long positions [7] Premium and Discount Situation - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 0.14%, 2.05%, 2.09%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.68%, 0.34%, - 0.06%, and 0.64% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.97%, 4.88%, 5.22%, and 7.24% respectively [8] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 10.07%, 9.71%, 9.74%, and 10.58% respectively [8]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 所以，大爷大妈也都可以做好货币基金的 投资。 (2) 债券基金 难度稍高一些的，是「债券基金」。 因为债券基金，已经会出现波动。 像咱们的365天组合,假设遇到极端情 况，波动达到3%-5%，但也不会太大。 ◆◆◆ 1 | | 不同? 不同资产，在投资的时候，难度也不同。 (1) 货币基金 这类品种，投资起来是最简单的。 因为货币基金的波动很小，几乎没有下跌 的情况。 ヨ忍，叫비拉瓦后，腹宗甲吻釜卧定下册 上涨邮。 所以沪深300、中证500这类股票基金，主 要是波动风险，而不是涨不回来的风险。 (4) 股权投资 难度更高的，就是「股权投资」。 我们上面说的股票基金，包括指数基金, 都是投资的一篮子上市公司。 这些上市公司，上市的时候，需要满足盈 利、资产等要求，同时也需要定期披露自 己的 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios[1][2][3] - The turnover rate of indices is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares} \times \text{Component Stocks' Turnover Rate})}{\Sigma(\text{Component Stocks' Free Float Shares})} $ This metric reflects the liquidity and trading activity of the indices[15] - The risk premium is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a benchmark for assessing the relative investment value and deviation of indices. The report highlights that indices like CSI 500 and SSE 50 exhibit high 5-year percentile values for risk premiums, indicating relatively attractive valuations[25][26][29] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric, with indices such as CSI 500 and CSI All Share showing high 5-year percentile values (99.92%), suggesting elevated valuations compared to historical levels[37][40][42] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return to investors, with indices like the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 showing relatively high 5-year historical percentile values (57.93% and 31.65%, respectively), indicating their attractiveness during periods of market downturns or declining interest rates[46][51][53] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) is evaluated through the "break net ratio," which measures the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. The report notes that indices such as SSE 50 and CSI 300 have higher break net ratios, reflecting market sentiment and valuation levels[52][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the base - rate statistics of various futures and spot commodities on December 26, 2025, including base - rate changes, monthly basis differences, contract prices, and spot prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.56%, an increase of 0.04% from the previous day. The spot price is 94,760 (SMM 1 electrolytic copper) [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract base - rate is - 0.86%, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 21,980 (SMM A00 aluminum) [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract base - rate is 0.33%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous day. The spot price is 23,080 (SMM 0 zinc ingot) [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract base - rate is - 0.96%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,100 (SMM 1 lead ingot) [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract base - rate is - 0.36%, an increase of 0.68% from the previous day. The spot price is 332,750 (SMM 1 tin) [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract base - rate is 1.83%, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous day. The spot price is 127,400 (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel) [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contract base - rate is 5.29%, an increase of 0.30% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,250 (SMM annual flux 253 silicon) [3]. - Lithium Carbonate (LC): The main contract base - rate is - 3.2%, an increase of 14.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 116,750 (Steel Union's high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate) [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.57%, an increase of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,003.01 (AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract base - rate is 0.10%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous day. The spot price is 17,414 (Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange) [3]. Black Industry - Rebar (RB): The main contract base - rate is 5.21%, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): The main contract base - rate is 0.30%, an increase of 1.07% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,290 (Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai) [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract base - rate is 6.92%, an increase of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 832.4 (PB powder: 61%: Qingdao) [3]. - Coke: The main contract base - rate is - 8.28%, an increase of 0.37% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,595 (Metallurgical coke: quasi - first - class) [3]. - Coking Coal and Steam Coal (JM, ZC): The main contract base - rates are - 0.58% and 14.3% respectively. The spot prices are 1,117.5 (Main coking coal: clean coal: Mongolian No. 5) and 689.0 (Shanxi Q500: Qinhuangdao) [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SE): The main contract base - rate is - 7.41%, a decrease of 0.59% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,270 (FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia) [3]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): The main contract base - rate is - 1.30%, a decrease of 0.24% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,770 (FeMn68Si18: Hebei) [3]. - Stainless Steel: The main contract base - rate is 0.46%, an increase of 0.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,050 (304/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi) [3]. - Glass (FG): The main contract base - rate is - 3.5%, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,010 (North China 5mm float glass market price) [3]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean: The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, a decrease of 0.44% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,940 (Domestic third - grade soybean: Harbin) [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract base - rate is 9.42%, a decrease of 1.65% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,020 (Ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM) and Rapeseed Oil (V): The main contract base - rates are 7.57% and 6.72% respectively. The spot prices are 2,530 (Ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong) and 8,320 (First - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang) [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract base - rate is 16.98%, an increase of 0.26% from the previous day. The spot price is 9,300 (Baisha peanuts: 45% oil content, 9% water content, Changtu) [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract base - rate is - 0.61%, a decrease of 0.40% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,490 (24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong) [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract base - rate is 4.61%, an increase of 0.33% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,290 (National - standard first - grade corn at Huangpu Port) [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract base - rate is 3.46%, an increase of 0.41% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,570 (Factory - delivered price of corn starch: Changchun) [3]. Agricultural and Sideline Products - Apple (AP): The main contract base - rate is - 6.50%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 8,600 (Average of Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan Red Fuji apples) [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract base - rate is - 1.56%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,900 (Eggs: Hebei Cangzhou) [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract base - rate is 2.97%, an increase of 0.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 11,800 (One - yuan live pigs from Henan) [3]. Soft Commodities - Cotton (CF): The main contract base - rate is 7.18%, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,279 (Cotton price index 328: Xinjiang) [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract base - rate is 2.87%, a decrease of 0.14% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,420 (White sugar: Liuzhou) [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract base - rate is 0.14%, unchanged from the previous day. The spot price is 2,165 (Methanol: East China) [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract base - rate is - 4.4%, an increase of 0.13% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,650 (Ethanol: East China) [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract base - rate is - 1.40%, an increase of 0.06% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,080 (PTA: East China) [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract base - rate is 8.52%, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,800 (Market price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S) [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract base - rate is 0.26%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous day. The spot price is 11111 (Styrene: East China) [3]. - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF): The main contract base - rate is 0.00%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,540 (Yifangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm) [3]. - Plastic: The main contract base - rate is 0.16%, an increase of 1.84% from the previous day. The spot price is 6,400 (Market price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042) [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract base - rate is - 5.40%, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,500 (East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream price) [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract base - rate is - 3.3%, an increase of 0.15% from the previous day. The spot price is 15,200 (Thai - produced: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): The main contract base - rate is 3.77%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 13,174 (Thai 20 standard rubber: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract base - rate is - 4.1%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,135 (Shahe heavy - quality market price) [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract base - rate is - 1.72%, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 1,710 (Small - particle urea: Henan) [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract base - rate is - 1.41%, an increase of 0.28% from the previous day. The spot price is 5,525 (Bleached softwood pulp: Silver Star: Chile) [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract base - rate is - 8.5%, an increase of 0.45% from the previous day. The spot price is 406.6 (Chinese Shengli: Pacific Rim) [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract base - rate is 6.42%, a decrease of 0.55% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,649 (Bonded marine fuel oil 380CST: Zhoushan) [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract base - rate is - 2.50%, an increase of 0.03% from the previous day. The spot price is 2,920 (Heavy - traffic asphalt: market price: Shandong) [3]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract base - rate is - 0.21%, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,010 (Marine fuel oil 0.5% low - sulfur: Singapore) [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract base - rate is 11.09%, an increase of 1.39% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,528 (Market price: Guangzhou) [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract base - rate is 0.69%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day. The spot price is 4,642.5 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract base - rate is - 0.04%, an increase of 0.02% from the previous day. The spot price is 3,032.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract base - rate is 1.23%, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The spot price is 7,410.7 [3].

Core Insights - Index investing has experienced rapid development due to policy guidance, market evolution, and changing investor demands [1][4] - The past decade has shown a clear trend towards indexation and institutionalization in the A-share market, making it increasingly difficult to achieve excess returns [1][4] - Investors typically focus on two types of returns: Beta (market returns from volatility) and Alpha (returns that exceed the market), with a growing interest in absolute return strategies [1][4] Group 1: Index Investment Strategies - Changcheng Fund has systematically organized its index investment strategies, including replication index strategies, "Index+" strategies, and absolute return strategies to provide investors with a richer selection [1][4] - The replication index strategy covers various styles of return exposure, aiming to provide clients with foundational and diverse standard tools [1][4] - Recent products launched by Changcheng Fund include a series of standard replication index products such as the Low Volatility Dividend 100, High Dividend Hong Kong Stock Connect, and others [1][4] Group 2: "Index+" and Absolute Return Strategies - The "Index+" strategy aims to capture both Beta and Alpha, allowing products to follow the market while also generating excess returns [2][5] - The CSI 500 index is highlighted as a balanced style index that seeks to uncover investment opportunities through breadth and balance [2][5] - The absolute return strategy employs quantitative analysis to dynamically control exposure across different equity indices and markets, helping clients achieve absolute return through quantitative investment strategies [6] - Two main product directions are identified: passive investment strategies based on time and space distribution (e.g., barbell and grid strategies) and a fully quantitative process from strategic to tactical levels [6]

一、强化政治引领，以高质量发展彰显使命担当 三、强化功能发挥，为做好"五篇大文章"贡献南方力量 "十五五"是推进中国式现代化、加快建设金融强国的关键时期。南方基金深刻学习领会全会精神和"十 五五"规划部署，坚持以全会精神统一思想、凝聚共识、指导行动，深化党建引领公司高质量发展， 将"有意义的事做得有意思"，推进公司经营提质增效；时刻谨记金融工作的政治性、人民性，将"金融 报国"的价值追求融入发展全过程，以服务中国式现代化建设大局、服务实体经济和国家战略、服务资 本市场高质量发展、服务居民财富管理需求作为公司谋篇布局的基本出发点，持续加大对重大战略、重 点领域和薄弱环节提供优质金融服务；将"投资于人"的理念内化于组织建设，大力引进高素质优秀人 才，前瞻做好投研、科技等重点领域人才储备，积极弘扬"五要五不"的中国特色金融文化，守好企业发 展的"根"和"魂"；打造一支厚植家国情怀、具有高度责任感使命感的高素质金融人才队伍。 二、聚焦主责主业，助力资本市场更好发挥投融资功能 "十五五"规划建议明确提出，提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能。加快建设安全、规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性 ...

党的二十届四中全会对"十五五"时期加快建设金融强国提出明确要求、作出战略部署，为扎实高效做 好"十五五"时期金融工作提供了基本遵循。南方基金将深入学习宣传贯彻全会精神作为当前和今后一个 时期的一项重大政治任务，以实际行动诠释国有金融企业的政治担当。 一、强化政治引领，以高质量发展彰显使命担当 "十五五"是推进中国式现代化、加快建设金融强国的关键时期。南方基金深刻学习领会全会精神和"十 五五"规划部署，坚持以全会精神统一思想、凝聚共识、指导行动，深化党建引领公司高质量发展， 将"有意义的事做得有意思"，推进公司经营提质增效；时刻谨记金融工作的政治性、人民性，将"金融 报国"的价值追求融入发展全过程，以服务中国式现代化建设大局、服务实体经济和国家战略、服务资 本市场高质量发展、服务居民财富管理需求作为公司谋篇布局的基本出发点，持续加大对重大战略、重 点领域和薄弱环节提供优质金融服务；将"投资于人"的理念内化于组织建设，大力引进高素质优秀人 才，前瞻做好投研、科技等重点领域人才储备，积极弘扬"五要五不"的中国特色金融文化，守好企业发 展的"根"和"魂"；打造一支厚植家国情怀、具有高度责任感使命感的高素质金融人才队伍 ...