【冠通研究】 关注下周美国关税情况 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 4 日 【期现行情】 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走午后下挫。美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人超预期，4、5 月合 计上修 1.6 万人，失业率意外降至 4.1%。下周 7 月 9 日，关税豁免推迟期限将至。特朗 普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从 8 月 1 日开始 支付关税税率。他补充说："关税范围高至 60%或 70%，低至 10%和 20%。"基本面来 看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为- 4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库 存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目 前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增 加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也 多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地 产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有逢低采购的支撑存在 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged unexpectedly, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and improving demand sentiment, alongside a declining US dollar index which benefits global commodities, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The price difference between Comex copper and LME has widened to $1,400, indicating market speculation around the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs [1] - Global copper inventory levels are low, with LME copper stocks decreasing from 270,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 90,000 tons currently, leading to a significant increase in LME copper's backwardation to $320, indicating tightness in the spot market [1] Group 2 - In the copper sector, companies had previously priced in copper prices of $9,000 to $9,500, and the recent price surge is expected to lead to earnings upgrades for these companies [2] - Recommended copper stocks with alpha attributes include Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, which are expected to benefit from improved performance and high profit elasticity [2] - In the aluminum sector, while some stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu have shown strong performance, concerns about demand from the photovoltaic sector have led to weaker performance in other aluminum stocks, despite strong underlying demand [2]

法国工业部长：10%的美国关税将是航空业的噩梦。 ...

法国工业部长：美国对欧盟征收10%的关税不是一个好交易。 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, covering the period up to July 4, 2025 [2] - The author of the report is Liao Hongbin, with a futures investment consulting license number Z0020723 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, while the far - month contracts had returns ranging from - 1% to - 2%. The spot price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract [6][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% increase [6][38] - In the US, the June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. It is currently expected that the Fed will start cutting rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year [6][38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. Excess capacity was a major pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping industry's prosperity in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term [6][38] - Whether the trade war will improve as expected in the long term remains to be observed. July is an important window period for tariff renegotiation. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, tariff, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][38] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2508 contract's trading volume and open interest both increased [12][15] - The table shows the week - on - week changes, closing prices, etc. of different futures contracts and the spot index [9] 2. News Review and Analysis - The Ministry of Commerce's response to the report of the US President's potential visit to China with a business delegation was neutral in impact [18] - The US Congress passing the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was considered a bearish factor [18] - Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and the US President's trade - related announcements were generally considered to have a neutral impact [18] - The EU - US trade agreement negotiation was in the final stage, and the overall impact was considered neutral [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined this week, and the spread converged [23] - The export container freight rate index fluctuated upward this week [26] - Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [29] - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded slightly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, and far - month contracts had negative returns. The spot price index improvement supported the main contract's futures price [38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index increased by 9.6% week - on - week [38] - The US economic data affected the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cuts [38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was under pressure. Excess capacity limited the shipping industry's recovery, while the spot price recovery may drive short - term futures price increases [38] - Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data during the important tariff negotiation window period in July [38]

Core Points - Indonesia plans to implement near-zero import tariffs on over 1,700 products, covering nearly 70% of U.S. imports, aiming to avoid a 32% tariff threat from the U.S. [1][2] - The proposed "bold trade agreement" includes key minerals, energy, defense cooperation, and market access, with a focus on enhancing supply chain security for U.S. industries [3][4] - Indonesia aims to increase imports of natural gas and agricultural products from the U.S. to enhance food and energy security [3] - The Indonesian government plans to expand military equipment purchases from the U.S. to solidify its position as a reliable defense partner in the Indo-Pacific region [4] - A memorandum of understanding worth $34 billion is set to be signed, involving investments in U.S. agricultural and energy products valued at $15.5 billion [4] Summary by Categories Trade Agreement - Indonesia expresses confidence in reaching a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S. before the upcoming tariff deadline, focusing on critical sectors [1][2] - The agreement aims to provide favorable access for U.S. buyers in key mineral sectors, particularly nickel, which is essential for battery production [3] Tariff Strategy - The Indonesian government is taking steps to avoid the imposition of a 32% tariff by the U.S. by reducing tariffs on a significant portion of imports [1][2] - The current baseline tariff of 10% is set to increase if no agreement is reached before the deadline [2] Economic Cooperation - Indonesia is committed to providing fair treatment for U.S. companies by easing localization requirements and enhancing intellectual property protection [4] - The government is exploring commercial cooperation with U.S. companies, including potential aircraft purchases and maintenance services [3][4]

今日现货黄金在盘中直线拉升，而A股冲高回落。 截至发稿，现货黄金涨超0.5%。 关税、降息大消息 消息面上，美国最新非农数据公布，利空"落地"，交易员放弃了对美联储7月降息的押注。 此外，美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同多国谈判的最后期限即将到来，不确定性增加。 据英国《金融时报》、美国"政治新闻网"欧洲版3日报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，欧盟与美国在 最后期限前达成全面的贸易协议是"不可能的"。 冯德莱恩当地时间周四(3日)在丹麦的一场新闻发布会上称，由于欧盟与美国贸易的规模和复杂性，在 这段时间内达成详细协议是"不可能的"。欧盟希望在下周的最后期限前与美国达成一项粗略的"原则性 的贸易协议"，该协议与此前英国与美国达成的协议类似。欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维奇 目前正在美国就该协议进行谈判。目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关 税，对几乎所有其他商品征收10%基准关税。美国总统特朗普还威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没 有取得突破，他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。作为回应，欧盟曾决定对美国总额210亿欧元的进口产品 加征至多50%的关税。 A股冲高回落 午后A股方面，截至 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing significant developments, particularly regarding interest rates and currency valuations, which could impact investment strategies and economic forecasts. Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that some members believe current interest rates should be maintained, highlighting concerns about the potential dangers of euro appreciation for exporters [3] - A Reuters survey shows that 19 out of 27 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep rates at 3.25% on July 9, with 16 out of 22 economists predicting a rate cut to 3.00% in Q3 [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading futures traders to abandon bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [5] - The labor market in the U.S. remains healthy, with the possibility of prolonged high inflation, according to Federal Reserve official Bostic [5] - The ECB warns that a heatwave could impact inflation and economic growth [5] Group 3: Currency Dynamics - ECB official Demarco stated that the euro is unlikely to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency [5] - The Bank of Japan has revised its salary increase forecast for FY2025 down to 5.25%, maintaining a level above 5% for two consecutive years [5] - The Polish central bank governor mentioned the possibility of a rate cut in September if data permits [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. 2. Core Views - The economic situation in China and the US is complex. In China, the economic sentiment has improved slightly, but there are still pressures in the manufacturing sector. In the US, the labor market is strong, but there are signs of weakness in retail sales and manufacturing [1][2]. - The "Big Beautiful" bill in the US has passed the House of Representatives and is expected to be signed into law by President Trump. The progress of trade negotiations among countries needs continuous attention [2]. - Macro - inflation trading is heating up, with the non - ferrous sector, gold, and the black sector being key areas of concern [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In China, the May investment data is weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue. Exports are under pressure, while consumption shows resilience. The June official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and comprehensive PMI have all increased slightly, but the manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. The new order index has entered the expansion range, and investment and consumption demand are expected to be released with the implementation of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible further growth - stabilizing policies [1]. - In the US, the deadline for the suspension of tariffs is approaching. There are various trade negotiation situations among countries. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI has risen. The Fed Chairman has not ruled out the possibility of a July interest rate cut. The US House of Representatives has passed the "Big Beautiful" bill, which is expected to be signed by President Trump on July 4th. The US May retail sales decreased significantly, and the June ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, but the June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, causing traders to abandon their bets on a July interest rate cut [1][2]. Macro - inflation Trading - Based on the 2018 tariff review, the tariff - adding events first lead to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Recently, with the increasing expectation of the passage of the US "Big Beautiful" bill and the approaching of important domestic meetings, macro - inflation trading has heated up again. The non - ferrous sector with supply constraints and gold related to inflation expectations are key areas of concern, and the black sector should focus on domestic policy expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and gold at low prices [4]. To - do List - The EU will extend sanctions against Russia for six months until January 31, 2026. The Iranian president has approved the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting on July 6th and the verification of production increase [3].

今日周五（7月4日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于774.02元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报775.20元/ 克，下跌0.46最高触及776.92元/克，最低下探773.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 受非农数据利空影响，黄金短期承压但技术面仍守关键支撑，当前维持3250-3400美元区间震荡。从波 浪结构观察，当前或处于Y浪调整末期，需重点关注多空分水岭突破情况。日线级别维持上升楔形整 理，MACD处于零轴附近待方向抉择，周线3247美元为关键多空分界，失守则确认中期调整趋势，上方 3400美元为历史压力转化区，需配合基本面改善方可突破。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 核心支撑位：短期支撑：3310-3300美元（7月4日非农数据低点）；中期关键支撑：3247美元（6月30日 阶段性低点，Y浪调整理论目标位） 美国总统特朗普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从8月1日开始支付 关税税率。大约"10到12封"信函将于星期五发出，"未来几天"还会有其他信件函出。 关键阻力位：短期压力：3350-3360美元（非农前密集成交区上沿）；中期强阻力：3400 ...