Group 1 - Huang Yanming officially leaves Guotai Junan Securities, potentially joining Dongfang Securities as the head of the research institute, bringing extensive experience and industry background that may enhance Dongfang Securities' strategic vision and research capabilities [1] - The departure of Huang Yanming indicates an intensifying talent flow within the industry, which could optimize the competitive landscape among brokerage firms and improve overall service levels [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Caifu Securities has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its market-making trading business for listed securities, marking an expansion of its business scope and enhancing its market competitiveness [2] - The approval requires Dongfang Caifu Securities to equip itself with necessary personnel, facilities, and systems, and to complete business registration changes within six months [2] - This qualification is expected to strengthen the company's service capabilities in the securities market and may lead to innovation in business models across the industry, positively impacting market confidence in the brokerage sector [2] Group 3 - Global funds are beginning to reallocate assets, with Chinese assets becoming a significant option amid uncertainties in the U.S. bond market, as foreign institutions maintain or slightly increase their holdings in Chinese assets [3] - The technology sector is particularly attracting global investors, with multiple tech stocks undergoing group research by foreign and private equity firms, which may lead to valuation recovery for related companies [3] - Increased foreign capital inflow is likely to enhance market activity and reveal structural opportunities within the A-share market [3] Group 4 - QDII funds are reducing their holdings in U.S. stocks while increasing positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, reflecting a cautious attitude towards U.S. equities amid global uncertainties [4] - Breakthroughs in China's technology sector are enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets, despite some recent stock adjustments, the logic for revaluation remains intact [4] - This shift in fund preferences may support the A-share technology sector and boost market confidence in Chinese assets, potentially leading to structural changes in the overall market [4]

中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛也持相同观点。他认为，在激进关税政策下，一是增加美国经济"滞 胀"风险，二是加剧美国金融市场波动。 自美国宣布征收所谓"对等关税"以来，美国经济和金融市场首当其冲，全球金融市场也出现大幅震荡。 业内专家表示，得益于有力有效的综合举措应对，中国金融市场在经历短暂波动后，目前趋于稳定，展 现出较强韧性。 美国金融市场大幅波动 "美国所谓'对等关税'措施激化贸易冲突，扰乱全球供应链，推升通胀和衰退预期，短期内对美国自身 及世界各国资本市场都造成巨大冲击，长期内会推升全球融资成本，加速全球产业链供应链重塑，损害 美国信誉和美元国际地位。"中国人民银行金融研究所所长丁志杰说。 从美国金融市场看，丁志杰分析，这导致美国股市暴跌、市值蒸发。美国所谓"对等关税"政策宣布后， 美国三大股指连续多日暴跌，多国股市同步下挫。尽管此后美国对部分国家推迟征收所谓"对等关税"， 美股及全球股市有所反弹，但美国政策反复无常，影响投资者信心，近期多国股市再次转跌。可以预 见，美国政府政策的反复无常及所谓"对等关税"大棒威胁，美股及其他国家资本市场将持续承压，波动 性加大。 美债被大量抛售，美元信用受损。丁志杰认为 ...

近期，证券时报发起"时报经济眼：2025年一季度经济学家问卷调查"。受访者包括来自政府部门、研究 机构、知名院校的权威经济学家。该项问卷调查旨在准确把握经济运行态势，以期为下一阶段稳定经济 大盘提供决策参考。 本期问卷邀请受访经济学家回顾一季度经济运行，展望二季度内外部经济形势，建言下一步宏观政策施 策。截至4月14日，共收集到57份答卷。本期调查结果显示，多数受访者看好一季度经济增速不低于 5%，二季度股市、汇市有望保持韧性，预计美国滥施关税将显著加剧美国自身通胀压力。短期来看， 外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行将造成一定压力，二季度有必要加大宏观政策逆周期调节力度。受访经济 学家建议，未来增量财政政策可以考虑加力扩围减税降费。 预计首季经济增速不低于5% 股市表现评价中性偏积极 2025年一季度，随着更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策逐步落地，经济运行延续回升向好态 势。在本期调查中，超六成(63.2%)受访者认为一季度经济运行平稳适度。多数受访者看好一季度中国 国内生产总值(GDP)将实现5%及以上增速水平。其中，47.4%的受访者预计经济增速在5%至5.2%区间， 17.5%的受访者预计在5.2%及以上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The risk of "stagflation" in the US economy is increasing, with deep concerns about the creditworthiness of the US dollar emerging due to aggressive tariff policies [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The aggressive tariff policies under Trump's administration are disrupting the global situation, with the US economy and financial markets being the most affected [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury prices over five consecutive days has led to a cumulative increase of nearly 50 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield, reaching 4.48%, marking the largest weekly increase since 2002 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has experienced a significant drop, with foreign institutions like Goldman Sachs shifting to a bearish outlook on the dollar's performance [1] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - In contrast, China's economic fundamentals, policy support, and valuation advantages are expected to continue driving the "revaluation of Chinese assets," reinforcing the narrative of "the East rising and the West declining" [1]

Group 1: Market Insights - The defensive dividend assets in the stock market may become a core safe haven for funds amid the "tariff storm" [3] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is weakening as the Trump administration proposes to replace short-term bonds with 100-year zero-coupon bonds [3][18] Group 2: Equity Market Analysis - Under the current tariff situation, risk assets are experiencing significant declines, while safe-haven assets are gaining, with the domestic 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.6% [3] - Chinese assets are expected to show resilience compared to global markets in the short term, with opportunities outweighing risks if policy responses are appropriate [4] - The consumer and investment sectors are expected to benefit from domestic demand policies, presenting short-term trading opportunities [4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors have seen a rise of 3.18% due to increased domestic prices following U.S. tariffs on agricultural imports [10] - The power equipment and new energy sectors are underperforming due to concerns over profit impacts from trade conflicts [10] Group 4: Macro and Fixed Income - The monetary policy is expected to continue pushing nominal interest rates down, with potential acceleration in easing measures in the second quarter [16] - The domestic bond market is viewed positively, with expectations of further declines in bond yields as the economic impact of tariffs unfolds [16] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - A neutral to defensive allocation strategy is recommended, emphasizing the importance of safe-haven assets like bonds and gold [20] - The A-share market should consider a combination of dividend/value and technology stocks in a barbell strategy, while being cautious of sectors with high overseas revenue exposure [20]

Group 1 - Understanding macro trends is crucial for grasping asset volatility and allocation opportunities, especially amid increasing global economic uncertainty [1] - The dialogue between Fang Sanwen and Xing Ziqiang highlights the importance of recognizing policy certainty, industry growth potential, and market structural opportunities for investment [1][2] - The concept of "East Stability, West Fluctuation" is introduced, emphasizing China's relative economic and policy stability compared to the uncertainties faced by the US [1][6] Group 2 - The divergence in asset prices between China and global markets since 2021 is attributed to geopolitical factors, underestimation of China's technological capabilities, and concerns over low-price cycles [4][5] - China's manufacturing sector retains a strong global competitive edge due to its integrated supply chain, engineering talent, and the ability to produce across all stages of manufacturing [12][13] - The ongoing adjustments in the real estate market are expected to stabilize, with government interventions aimed at debt restructuring and inventory management [9][10][11] Group 3 - The three-part strategy to break the low-price cycle includes debt restructuring, stimulating consumption, and reinforcing social security reforms [16][18] - China's consumer spending is currently low relative to GDP, with a high savings rate indicating potential for future consumption growth as social security systems improve [19][20] - The service sector is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by changing consumer preferences and the need for job creation [21][22] Group 4 - The outlook for different asset classes suggests a focus on technology and innovation-driven sectors, while also considering defensive stocks with high dividends amid macroeconomic uncertainties [28][30] - Advanced manufacturing sectors, including smart vehicles and AI, are expected to consolidate, leading to the emergence of industry leaders over time [31]

2025年以来，港股再融资市场时隔3年再次火爆起来，尤其是在配售方面，截至4月8日，港股市场的配售规模已达到1149亿港元，这一规模已极为接近过 去两年港股配售总额。 分析人士指出，港股配售呈现如此迅猛的增长态势并不意外，此前的中国资产重估和科技股红利为大型公司提供了极为适宜的融资窗口期。不过，随着后续 港股市场持续调整，配售规模可能并不会如一季度迅猛。 企业紧抓融资窗口期 2025年以来，港股配售规模持续飙升，也是港股市场自2021年后，时隔3年配售规模再度突破千亿港元。Wind数据显示，2025年以来，港股市场配售规模已 达到1149亿港元，而2022年到2024年则分别仅为778亿港元、661亿港元和545亿港元。 港股配售市场的火爆并非偶然，背后有着多方面的因素驱动，其中港股市场的回暖是一个极为重要的原因。从市场环境来看，港股在经历过去两年的承压 后，今年迎来强势反弹。 2025年一季度，恒生指数涨幅达到15.25%，在全球大类资产中表现极为突出。同时，随着外围流动性预期边际改善、人民币资产吸引力提升以及内地多项支 持资本市场的政策逐步落地，港股市场呈现出"估值修复+风险偏好提升"的有利窗口期，为企业 ...

市场风高浪急，交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带，配合总是生无可恋的表情，风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变，他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效，数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响，将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌，市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此，现任华福国际（香港）金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者，面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁，不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周，不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日，中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日，A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只，A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元，港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日，美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日，中国政府回击，反制进一 ...

几周之前曾被热议的中国资产重估逻辑，还继续有效吗？ 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 4 月 2 日特朗普签署所谓 "对等关税" 行政令，宣布 美国对所有贸易伙伴加征 10% 的 "最低基准关 税"， 并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中给中国的 "对等关税" 税率达到 34%。此后连续三个交易 日（至 4 月 7 日），全球金融市场暴跌，美国股市蒸发了超过 6 万亿美元。港股则在 4 月 7 日抹平了 开年以来所有涨幅，上证指数创下 8 年来最大单日跌幅。 本周，中美关税争端还在继续升级。4 月 8 日，美国针对中国政府的坚决反制，报复性地宣布对中国 输美商品征收 "对等关税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 中国并不示弱，4 月 9 日反制进一步升级 ——对美加征关税税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 "这是一个史诗般的经济和市场事件。" 美国著名基金经理比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在上周表示，本 轮美国关税政策调整的影响，形同 1971 年和金本位制的终结但会带来直接的负面后果，因此他呼吁 投资者不应该试图 "接下落的刀"。 反映市场波动率的芝加哥期权交易所 VIX 指数，也被称为 " ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in global capital markets, particularly focusing on the impact of new U.S. tariffs on China and the subsequent market reactions. The CEO of Huafu International, Hong Hao, maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on Chinese assets despite the turmoil, emphasizing the need for patience and a long-term perspective in investing [3][4][10]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs, the U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with over $6.5 trillion in market value evaporating [3]. - On April 7, the Chinese stock market faced a severe downturn, with over 2,900 stocks hitting the daily limit down, resulting in a total market value loss of 7.6 trillion yuan [4]. Tariff Implications - The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 84%, prompting a reciprocal response from China [4]. - Hong Hao criticizes the U.S. approach to trade deficits and tariffs, arguing that the U.S. economy may be more vulnerable than China's in the face of escalating tariffs [9][10]. Market Conditions and Predictions - Hong Hao believes that the fundamental conditions for a long-term rise in the Chinese stock market remain intact, provided that the economic fundamentals do not deteriorate further [4][12]. - He suggests that the current market environment is characterized by a valuation repair rather than a fundamental reassessment, indicating that the market's recovery may be driven by liquidity rather than genuine economic improvement [8][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious and not to chase short-term rebounds in the market, as the long-term upward trend requires stable economic fundamentals [10][11]. - Hong Hao emphasizes the importance of making investment decisions based on market sentiment and conditions rather than solely on valuation metrics [10][11]. Economic Outlook - The article highlights the need for China to establish a clear economic strategy to replace reliance on the real estate sector and to communicate this effectively to the market [13]. - Hong Hao points out that the demand for housing in China remains sustainable, with significant annual housing needs projected [14]. AI and Technology Sector - The article discusses the current hype around AI technology, cautioning against over-optimism regarding its immediate profitability and sustainability in the market [18][19]. - Hong Hao notes that while there is enthusiasm for AI, the path to profitability is complex and not guaranteed, suggesting a need for a more cautious approach to investment in this sector [18][19].