Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to China's strong production capacity and economic resilience, making it a long-term trend rather than a short-term fluctuation [11][10]. Group 1: Currency Appreciation Factors - The RMB has strengthened from approximately 7.4 to 6.99 against the USD, driven by China's significant production capacity, which is now over 53% of the world's top production capacity [8][10]. - The essence of currency value lies in its backing by real production capacity rather than gold or credit [5][6]. - The RMB's appreciation is seen as a natural outcome of the disconnect between currency issuance and the underlying production capacity [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Implications of RMB Appreciation - Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the long-term benefits of RMB appreciation outweigh the drawbacks, particularly in reducing import costs for energy and raw materials [19][21]. - The trade surplus has increased from $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion, indicating that the RMB's appreciation does not negatively impact exports, as Chinese goods remain irreplaceable in global supply chains [21][23]. - The long-term value of RMB appreciation includes enhancing its internationalization, allowing China to leverage its currency for global transactions [25]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - All RMB-denominated assets are expected to become highly sought after as the currency appreciates, leading to increased asset values [27][29]. - The current market trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks reflect a similar pattern to the RMB appreciation period from 2008 to 2015, suggesting a robust foundation for future growth [29][30]. - The outlook for RMB assets, including Chinese government bonds and quality real estate, is positive, with expectations of significant upward trends despite potential short-term volatility [32][34].

01哪些行业受益人民币升值 近期离岸人民币对美元盘中升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次。年末的人民币快速升 值，年末结汇是重要因素，也是针对全球新老秩序交替过程中，中国优势的再评估。 财通证券策略梳理人民币升值受益行业： 从成本端， 进口贸易以及原料进口依赖两类行业有望受益，最终体现为毛利率提升； 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出前瞻布局未来产 业，推动脑机接口等成为新的经济增长点。 这些产业蓄势发力，未来1 0年将再造一个中 国高技术产业。 风险提示：以上内容仅为个人观点，供交流参考使用，所有内容不做买卖操作依据，据此 介入，风险自担，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 合 作 联 系 02 太空脑机接口首试成功 近日，西北工业大学牵头开发的两套太空专用小鼠无线植入式脑机接口微系统，搭载"迪 迩五号・中国科技城号"空间试验器成功升空并进入预定轨道，目前运行稳定、数据正常 回传。 此次任务是国际首次在太空环境下开展该类设备长期在轨离体验证，核心包含自研多通道 柔性微电极、神经信号采集芯片等关键部件，创新采用"动物舱"与"独立舱"双室协同验证 模式，攻克了太空复杂环境下信号采集、长期 ...

那底层逻辑的话呢也比较简单，也就是说海外的资本认为人民币会不断升值，也就它会抛售美元持有人 民币，那他又不会在场内简单的持有人民币，他大概率会在整个香港的一个资本市场上，我无论说是去 买恒生科技，还是去配置一部分比如港股红利这种资产，那我吃两份钱，一个是人民币升值我能挣钱， 一个是什么？呀我比如说我持有股红利，我能拿到红利的一部分的收入，那其实这个就是底层一个逻 辑，我们会发现明显的一个负相关性，那在这个时间节点的话人民币不断走强，我们就可以考虑配置一 部分资产到恒生科技或者港股这一边。 这个人民币汇率的一旦走强，其实对黄金咱们持有黄金的兄弟姐妹来讲是比较被动的，因为他在不断的 侵蚀你持有黄金的一个利润，因为你的黄金是以人民币计价，那如果人民币越来越强，你的黄金的价格 就不像之前那么高了，我一直想给大家去做一个对冲的一个策略，也就是说有没有什么产品在人民币升 值的时候，它大概率会去涨，那对冲一下我持有这个黄金收益被侵蚀的这一部分那有没有？和讯投顾葛 鋆隆认为其实是有的，黄颜色的是恒生科技指数，那底下的彩色的线呢就是人民币汇率，那我们会发现 两者有比较明显的一个负相关性，啊那当恒生科技涨的时候，我们会发现人民币 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has reached the 4000-point mark for the third time since its inception this year, indicating that the current market trend is likely to continue into 2026 [1] - The manufacturing sector in A-shares is still predominant, with capital expenditure and ongoing projects in the manufacturing industry expected to show slight recovery in 2025, but overall growth will remain negative [1] - The contribution of the manufacturing sector to GDP growth is expected to improve in 2026 compared to 2025, suggesting a positive trend in the fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Global economic resilience has exceeded expectations following tariff conflicts, with the U.S. fiscal expansion reflected in the "Beautiful Big Plan" [3] - The recent technical expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet indicates ongoing fiscal pressure in the U.S., which may lead to a stronger RMB against the USD, positively impacting A-shares [3][5] - The synchronized fiscal expansion across the U.S., Europe, and Japan is expected to improve global demand, benefiting the A-share market [3] Group 3 - Despite hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve regarding 2026, the upcoming change in leadership may lead to a more dovish stance, suggesting continued monetary easing [5] - The China Securities A500 ETF (159338) is recommended for broad-based investment due to its innovative index composition that balances industry representation and includes leading companies [5] - The A500 ETF has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.09% as of December 26, 2025, indicating its strong performance [5] Group 4 - The A500 ETF leads in product scale and customer numbers among similar products, with a balanced investor structure favoring individual investors [7] - The A500 index covers 100% of secondary industries and 98% of tertiary industries, providing a more comprehensive representation of A-shares compared to the CSI 300 index [7][10] - The index's balanced allocation between value and growth styles allows it to better represent A-share market trends, particularly during bullish phases [11] Group 5 - The A500 index is expected to outperform traditional indices like the CSI 300 due to its comprehensive coverage of industry leaders and alignment with China's evolving industrial structure [14] - The A500 ETF is positioned as a superior core investment choice due to its balanced configuration, which can adapt to varying market conditions [15] - Investment strategies for the ETF include a long-term approach, buying on dips, diversification, and phased investment to mitigate market volatility [15]

港股人民币升值板块盘初冲高，玖龙纸业涨超6%，中国国航(601111)涨超3%，晨鸣纸业、中国东方航 空股份、中国南方航空(600029)股份跟涨。 港股人民币升值板块盘初冲高，玖龙纸业涨超6%，中国国航(601111)涨超3%，晨鸣纸业、中国东方航 空股份、中国南方航空(600029)股份跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the offshore RMB, breaking the 7.0 barrier and returning to the "6 era," is reshaping individual wealth dynamics and presents both opportunities and challenges for consumers and investors [2][15]. Consumer Impact - The RMB appreciation acts as a universal "discount season" for consumers, particularly benefiting those engaged in overseas shopping and travel, as prices for imported goods and services have effectively decreased [2][4]. - For families supporting children studying abroad, the currency shift can lead to significant savings; for instance, a drop in the exchange rate from 7.2 to 6.99 can save over 10,000 RMB on a total annual expenditure of 50,000 USD for studying in the U.S. [5]. Investment Opportunities - The appreciation of the RMB is likely to attract foreign capital inflows, benefiting A-shares and core asset valuations, particularly in sectors like consumption, finance, and real estate, leading to potential valuation recovery for investors [7]. - Chinese government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive to global investors, especially in the context of U.S. interest rate cuts, highlighting the stability of RMB-denominated debt [7]. Debt Management - For those with foreign currency debts, such as USD mortgages, the appreciation of the RMB effectively reduces the debt burden. However, domestic interest rates remain unchanged, which could impact those with RMB-denominated debts [10]. - It is advisable for individuals holding cash with high-interest loans to prioritize paying off these debts, as reducing high-interest liabilities is a prudent financial strategy in a declining investment return environment [12]. Strategic Recommendations - Individuals with upcoming foreign expenditures should consider locking in current exchange rates by gradually purchasing foreign currency to mitigate risks associated with future fluctuations [12]. - Those holding excess USD cash should consider converting to RMB or investing in USD-denominated financial products to avoid losses from currency depreciation and inflation [12]. - Maintaining a liquidity buffer of 3-6 months' worth of expenses is recommended, along with increasing allocations to RMB-denominated equity assets to capitalize on economic recovery and currency appreciation [14].

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属延续强势 十四届全国人大四次会议于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开，全国政协十四届四次 会议于 2026 年 3 月 4 日在北京召开。全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在 北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出 盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三 是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强 化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。中国 11 月规模以上 工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业利润增速加 快。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫 28 日说，俄总统普京当天与美国总统特朗普通电 话，双方均认为，以公民投票为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。 重点品种：贵金属，股指，铜 贵金属：现货白银快速拉升，继续刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%， 低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期， 引发市场质疑，但 CP ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that 39 out of 360 industry/theme ETFs reached new highs in December, with established sectors like telecommunications and non-ferrous metals reflecting North American AI infrastructure and resource logic, while new sectors like commercial aerospace ETFs are gaining attention during market fluctuations [2] - The focus on sectors such as chemicals and engineering machinery indicates a shift in China's manufacturing competitiveness towards pricing power, while sectors related to anti-involution, like new energy and steel, are also showing signs of recovery [2] - The investment strategy suggests a preference for sectors with low heat and concentration but potential for long-term ROE improvement, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, and new energy, alongside a keen observation of the trend of RMB appreciation [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the favorable conditions for the spring market rally, emphasizing liquidity-driven characteristics in the A-share market, with expectations for a surge in the CSI A500 ETF towards year-end [3] - It notes that the spring market is supported by loose liquidity, with private equity making concentrated purchases and the RMB's appreciation benefiting market liquidity [3] - The potential for a spring rally is further supported by upcoming events like the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, which may enhance risk appetite [3] Group 3 - The article indicates that the RMB's appreciation post "breaking 7" is expected to have a positive impact on both the currency and capital markets, with a potential for a spring rally [4][5] - It outlines four key logic points regarding the impact of RMB appreciation on industry allocation, including benefits for industries with high import reliance, those with significant foreign currency liabilities, and domestic demand-driven sectors [5] - The article suggests that the current market conditions do not show clear signs of a bull market peak, with internal policies remaining supportive and external risks easing [6] Group 4 - The article identifies new investment themes emerging in the commodity market and real industry chains, highlighting the increasing consumption of physical goods in manufacturing sectors and the strengthening of China's manufacturing advantages [7] - It recommends focusing on industrial resource products that resonate with AI investment and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors like equipment exports and domestic manufacturing recovery [7] - The article emphasizes the importance of capital market expansion and the potential for non-bank financial sectors to benefit from improving asset returns [7] Group 5 - The article states that the A-share market's cross-year rally has begun, driven by positive signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and optimistic institutional investor expectations [8] - It highlights the importance of sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing, with commercial aerospace being a primary market focus [8] - The article suggests that the spring market may see a structural and rapid rotation of sectors, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a low-buying strategy [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting key factors contributing to this trend and projecting further strengthening in the coming years [6]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The RMB has shown a trend reversal since April, moving from depreciation to appreciation, with the exchange rate surpassing 7.1 and approaching the 7 mark [6]. - Four main factors are identified as driving the RMB's strength: the expansion of the current account surplus, easing trade conflicts, increasing purchasing power of the RMB, and the potential continued depreciation of the US dollar [6]. - China's current account surplus is expected to reach a historical high in 2025, providing significant support for the appreciation of the RMB [7]. Group 2: Implications for the Chinese Economy - A sustained weak US dollar and rising international commodity prices, along with a moderate appreciation of the RMB, could alleviate the impact of rising raw material prices on the Chinese economy and enhance the international purchasing power of Chinese residents [5].

港股人民币升值板块盘初冲高，玖龙纸业涨超6%，中国国航涨超3%，晨鸣纸业、中国东方航空股份、 中国南方航空股份跟涨。 ...