李迅雷 | 立方大家谈专栏作者 文章原载于"李迅雷金融与投资"微信公众号：lixunlei0722 大家似乎普遍都认为一旦人民币实现自由兑换，就会大幅贬值。曾与不少人交流过，不管是普通百姓，还是金融学者，甚 至一些高层人士，都无一例外地持有这样的观点。经验告诉我们，一致预期往往是错的。为此，笔者在去年7月份发表长文 《人民币可否尝试惊险一跃》，建议人民币早日尝试在资本项下的自由兑换，从而加速人民币国际化进程。 近日，《求是》杂志发表重要文章，指出金融强国的目标，"一是拥有强大的货币，在国际贸易投资和外汇市场广泛使用， 具有全球储备货币地位"。而我一直认为人民币实现自由兑换后并不会出现大幅贬值或资本外逃现象。本文将进一步解释为 何美元是被高估的，人民币则是被低估的，在当前美元走弱的背景下，应该加快提升人民币的国际化地位。 购买力平价—— 反映各国货币的估值水平 投资股票的人都知道什么叫市盈率，市盈率越低，说明估值越便宜。如每当股市步入漫长的熊市，大家都会说股价被低估 了，因为市盈率很低了，希望平准基金能进场；每当股市疯涨，平均市盈率处在历史高位，则管理层就会推进IPO速度、 控制融资规模等来平抑市场狂热情绪。 ...

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has faced domestic economic pressures and international relations challenges since taking office in October 2025, but has stabilized her position through a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party [1] - Takashi announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives on January 23, 2026, with elections scheduled for February 8, 2026, viewing this as an opportunity to consolidate power and enhance negotiation leverage with China [3] - The trade relationship between Japan and China has deteriorated, with a 5% decline in trade volume in 2025 compared to 2024, and a significant impact on Japan's semiconductor and electronics industries due to China's export restrictions on dual-use items and rare earth materials [5][9] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to a 15% increase in costs for Japanese companies, with the yen falling to around 155 against the dollar, creating inflationary pressures that have raised consumer prices by over 10% [5][7][18] - Takashi's government has increased the defense budget to 9 trillion yen, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal deficit, which is already the highest among developed countries at 230% of GDP [9] - The global shift towards de-dollarization has been accelerated, with the use of the yuan in international trade rising significantly, indicating a structural challenge to the dollar's dominance [11][20]

本报讯 记者赵萌报道 近日，中国银行作为主承销商，成功协助摩根士丹利在中国银行间市场发行 26亿元熊猫债。本次发行是摩根士丹利第三次"亮相"中国债券市场，中国银行参与全部三期发行，累计 协助融资66亿元人民币，充分彰显了国际发行人对中国市场的坚定信心和高度认可。 据了解，2025年7月，中国银行协助引进摩根士丹利进入中国债券市场，成功发行首单美资发行人 熊猫债，为国际优质发行人提供了有价值的实践范例，吸引更多境外主体关注并参与中国债券市场。截 至目前，中国银行已服务来自亚洲、欧洲、北美洲、非洲、南美洲发行人来华发行熊猫债。中国银行将 继续依托全球化服务网络和跨境金融优势，以丰富的项目经验和独特的市场视角协助各类发行主体进入 中国市场，开拓投融资新渠道，为提升人民币国际影响力、推动高水平对外开放贡献更大力量。 责任编辑：袁浩 ...

尤其是在新一轮科技革命和产业变革加速突破、全球竞技场比拼科技硬实力的背景下，做强主场，吸引 全球长期资本，提升人民币资产吸引力与人民币国际化支撑力，增强关键品种的定价影响力尤为重要， 是让中国市场更好融入全球金融体系的必要之举。 展望未来，资本市场高水平制度型开放仍将向纵深推进。可以预期，双向开放将以更成熟的节奏、更完 善的制度、更开放的姿态，建设具有全球竞争力的资本市场，为经济高质量发展与金融强国建设提供坚 实支撑。 资本市场高水平对外开放迈向规则对接、机制互通、生态共建的制度型开放新阶段。合格境外投资者资 格核准常态化，吸引长期资本稳步入市；新增一批期货期权特定品种开放，覆盖新能源、大宗商品等关 键领域，提升境内市场定价影响力与风险管理供给；境外上市备案制透明高效，企业跨境融资更便捷更 快速。开放节奏与市场需求同频，政策成效快速转化为市场活力。 要统筹开放与安全，兼顾速度与质量，风险防控不可掉以轻心。当前全球金融市场波动加大，资本市场 开放始终坚持稳字当头、稳中求进。一方面，以制度型开放筑牢基础，推动规则、规制、管理、标准逐 步与国际接轨，提升政策透明度与可预期性；另一方面，强化跨境监管协同与执法合作，健 ...

计息机制落地，数字人民币实现了从"数字现金"到"数字存款"的跨越；数字资产价值凸显的同时，为数 字经济时代的货币体系重构，勾勒出清晰的中国路径 文｜《财经》记者 唐郡 编辑 | 张威 袁满 "数字人民币有利息了。"李女士在数字人民币App方寸之间，所看到的0.05%利息，却是数字人民币的 历史性记录。 在全球金融数字化转型与货币形态重构的博弈关键期，中国法定数字货币迎来里程碑式突破。 2026年1月1日，数字人民币计息机制正式落地，标志着中国版央行数字货币完成从"数字现金"到"数字 存款"的质变，以制度创新开启2.0时代新征程。 这一变革的背后，是顶层设计的精准谋篇。2025年12月29日，中国人民银行（下称"央行"）党委委员、 副行长陆磊在《金融时报》发表署名文章，明确《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融 基础设施建设的行动方案》（下称《行动方案》）于2026年1月1日正式实施。 新一代计量框架、管理体系、运行机制与生态体系同步启动，为数字人民币的功能升级筑牢制度根基。 《行动方案》的核心突破，在于重塑数字人民币的价值属性。方案明确银行机构需为客户实名数字人民 币钱包余额计付利息，并遵守存款利率 ...

责任编辑：曹睿潼 来源：今日建行 近日，中国建设银行作为牵头主承销商和牵头簿记管理人，成功支持摩根士丹利在中国银行间债券市场 发行26亿元熊猫债。本次发行主体为摩根士丹利私人有限公司，由集团母公司摩根士丹利提供全额、无 条件且不可撤销的担保，期限5年，票面利率2.10%，吸引境内外投资者的踊跃认购，体现出国际市场 对中国债券市场与人民币资产的坚定信心。 来源：今日建行 该项目是建设银行首次作为牵头主承销商服务美资背景主体发行的熊猫债，也是建设银行与摩根士丹利 长期合作的重要里程碑。摩根士丹利作为首批进入中国市场的国际知名投资银行之一，三十余年来积极 参与中国金融市场的建设与发展。本次债券发行也体现了摩根士丹利与建设银行的合作再上新台阶。 近日，中国建设银行作为牵头主承销商和牵头簿记管理人，成功支持摩根士丹利在中国银行间债券市场 发行26亿元熊猫债。本次发行主体为摩根士丹利私人有限公司，由集团母公司摩根士丹利提供全额、无 条件且不可撤销的担保，期限5年，票面利率2.10%，吸引境内外投资者的踊跃认购，体现出国际市场 对中国债券市场与人民币资产的坚定信心。 该项目是建设银行首次作为牵头主承销商服务美资背景主体发行 ...

Core Insights - The digital renminbi has officially entered its 2.0 era after ten years of exploration, marking a significant transition from cash to deposit currency with the introduction of an interest mechanism and an expanded ecosystem [2][8] Group 1: Digital Renminbi Development - The People's Bank of China has implemented an action plan to enhance the management and service system of the digital renminbi, which includes a 0.05% interest rate, representing a crucial step in its development journey [2][8] - The digital renminbi has processed over 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan, with 230 million personal wallets and 1.884 million corporate wallets opened, showcasing its achievements in the global central bank digital currency landscape [3][9] Group 2: Key Adjustments in Digital Renminbi 2.0 - The transition to digital renminbi 2.0 involves four key adjustments: inclusion in the reserve requirement framework, allowing interest on wallet balances, enabling commercial banks to use digital renminbi for loans, and incorporating digital renminbi deposits into deposit insurance [4][10] - This transformation signifies a shift from a "payment tool" to "financial infrastructure," aligning its institutional attributes and financial functions with traditional currencies [5][10] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The advancement of the digital renminbi is part of a strategic response to global digital currency competition, with China firmly promoting its central bank digital currency while the U.S. and EU pursue different paths [5][10] - The digital renminbi's capabilities in cross-border payments, utilizing blockchain technology for "payment and settlement," have shown advantages in various trade scenarios, contributing to the internationalization of the renminbi [11] Group 4: Future Directions - The development of the digital renminbi must balance stability and progress, focusing on serving the real economy while exploring applications in supply chain finance and trade financing [6][11] - The new roadmap for the digital renminbi represents a deepening of financial reform and a strategic choice for China's participation in global financial governance, aiming to enhance monetary sovereignty and support high-quality development [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government is committed to developing the local bond market to enhance its role as an international financial center, focusing on innovative bond issuance and various supportive measures [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Development - The Hong Kong government aims to activate the bond market through regular issuance of government bonds, including institutional, retail, green, and tokenized bonds [1]. - Since 2008, Hong Kong has been the leading hub for bond issuance in Asia, with over $130 billion in issuance planned for 2024, capturing nearly 30% of the market share [1]. - Hong Kong accounts for approximately 70% of the first-time bond issuance market and 45% of the green and sustainable bond issuance market, indicating its leadership in various segments [1]. Group 2: Regulatory and Market Measures - The Hong Kong government and financial regulators are implementing measures to enhance primary market issuance, improve secondary market liquidity, and expand offshore RMB business [2]. - As of January 2, 2026, there are 1,351 listed bonds on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with 1,302 being professional investor bonds, which are primarily traded over-the-counter [2]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is exploring the feasibility of an electronic bond trading platform to improve market liquidity [3]. Group 3: Offshore RMB and Risk Management - The offshore RMB bond market has seen significant growth, with issuance reaching 1.07 trillion RMB in 2024, a 37% year-on-year increase [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is enhancing its role in the offshore RMB market by allowing foreign investors to use onshore government bonds as collateral for derivatives trading [3]. - The Hong Kong government is working on introducing offshore government bond futures to provide effective risk management tools for investors [5]. Group 4: Tokenized Bonds - The Hong Kong government has issued three batches of tokenized green bonds since 2023, with the largest issuance of 10 billion HKD in November 2025, attracting significant global institutional interest [5]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is researching the secondary market applications for tokenized bonds to enhance their attractiveness and demand [6]. - Efforts are underway to optimize the legal framework for broader application of tokenization technology in the bond market [6].

孙立坚（复旦大学金融研究中心主任） 消费是拉动经济增长的第一动力，服务消费作为消费升级的关键载体，正在成为中国经济增长的"结构 性变量"。当前，我国人均GDP已突破1.3万美元，居民消费需求从"物质型"向"服务型"加速转型，2025 年居民人均服务性消费支出占比达46.1%，服务零售额增速持续高于商品零售额。当前，加快培育服务 消费新增长点，推动服务消费提质扩容，既是顺应居民消费升级的必然选择，更是增强经济内生动力、 实现产业结构优化升级的战略突破口。本文立足"为何是它、怎么做"的逻辑主线，系统剖析服务消费成 为经济新动能的深层逻辑，直面现实堵点，把握多维机遇，提出打造现代化的服务消费供给体系，为激 活服务消费增长潜力、赋能经济高质量发展提供系统性思路。 三重逻辑：服务消费为何是关键 服务消费能成为中国经济高质量发展的新动能，是居民需求升级、经济结构转型、政策持续赋能三重逻 辑叠加的结果，兼具民生与经济双重属性，是推动发展与改善民生的重要抓手。 居民消费升级为服务消费筑牢需求根基，场景经济释放乘数效应。随着居民可支配收入增长，消费需求 从"满足基本生活"向"追求品质体验"转变，服务消费需求弹性持续提升。刚性领 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent steady appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar and other major currencies has become a focal point in the international financial market, driven by changes in the global monetary environment and supported by strong trade fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has steadily appreciated against the US dollar, recovering over 3% since January after a period of decline due to external pressures [1]. - The RMB has also strengthened significantly against other major currencies, appreciating over 14% against the Japanese yen and approximately 4% against the euro in the past six months [1]. - The overall value of the RMB has been recognized, with a cumulative appreciation of about 5.6% since the second half of last year, according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - The weakening of the US dollar, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, has reduced the attractiveness of dollar assets, creating upward pressure on the RMB/USD exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US has enhanced the relative attractiveness of RMB assets, contributing to a positive outlook for RMB appreciation [2]. - A solid and diverse trade structure, with continued engagement with traditional partners and expansion into emerging markets, has provided a stable foundation for the RMB's value [2]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization Strategy - The RMB's steady appreciation presents a significant opportunity for its internationalization, contingent upon deep financial market reforms and systematic opening [3][4]. - Key areas for deepening RMB internationalization include enhancing exchange rate marketization, gradually opening the capital account, and improving financial infrastructure to align with international standards [3]. - The extension of trading hours and the development of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) are essential for facilitating RMB's role as an international currency [3].