Group 1: U.S. Global Military Presence - The U.S. has approximately 750 military facilities in over 80 countries, with a permanent troop presence of around 170,000, making it the most extensive military network globally [4] - The establishment of military bases has been a strategy to consolidate U.S. global hegemony, particularly in regions of strategic interest such as Europe and the Middle East [6][9] - Recent strategic adjustments include the withdrawal of troops from non-core interest areas, such as Niger and Chad, reflecting the challenges and costs associated with maintaining a vast military presence [9][10] Group 2: Economic and Financial Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has been a crucial pillar of American hegemony, serving as the world's primary reserve currency, allowing the U.S. to exert significant economic influence [10][12] - The U.S. federal debt reached $33 trillion by the end of 2023 and is projected to rise to $35 trillion in 2024, exceeding 122% of GDP, indicating a severe fiscal challenge [12][14] - Many countries are actively seeking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar, exploring alternative currencies for trade and investment, which could undermine the dollar's dominance [14] Group 3: Domestic Challenges - The U.S. faces significant internal issues, including political polarization and social unrest, which have been exacerbated by economic disparities and a lack of trust in government [17][18][20] - The widening wealth gap is evident, with the top 1% controlling 38.6% of the nation's wealth, while the bottom 50% holds only 2.4% [20] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline, with its GDP share dropping from approximately 12% in 2008 to below 10% in 2024, indicating a trend of industrial hollowing out [20]

事关稳定币。 香港财政司司长陈茂波6月29日发表司长随笔《亚洲新时代》。陈茂波表示，金融科技在跨境贸易应用 的潜力巨大，目标是解决跨境支付速度慢、成本高等长期存在的痛点，在支付领域更好地服务实体经 济。而上周发布的《数字资产发展政策宣言2.0》，四个支柱之一便是"推进应用场景及跨界别合作"， 当中提到稳定币是在传统金融系统以外提供具成本效益的替代方案，有潜力为支付及资本市场活动带来 变革，包括跨境支付。 陈茂波表示，《稳定币条例》将在今年8月1日生效，香港特区政府及金融监管机构将致力营造有利的市 场环境，配以必要的监管措施，推动发行人把稳定币应用推展至不同场景，助力解决企业经商以至市民 生活中的实质痛点。 当前全球政治经济格局正在重塑、新兴经济体的发展仍面临不少挑战，香港在投资和创科领域的资源、 知识、经验和网络等方面优势，也能助力亚洲新兴经济体以科技和创新加快实现更繁荣和更普惠包容的 发展。 陈茂波表示："我们将进一步加强与亚投行的协作，通过金融创新，例如发行更多币种和不同年期的债 券、把基建抵押贷款证券化和发行巨灾债券等，支持区内经济体的基建和其他发展的资金需要。" 责编：李丹 值得一提的是，陈茂波此前在 ...

SWIFT每个月都会公布上月的各国或地区货币支付份额，最新一期数据显示人民币5月的支付份额为2.89%，不仅连续两个月大幅下降，而且排名上被加元 超过跌至第六。 排在人民币前面的货币分别是美元、欧元、英镑、日元和加元，支付份额见下图所示。 这意味着SWIFT只能统计通过该系统完成的交易支付，不走SWIFT的人民币交易是统计不到的。 央行的统计范围显然更大，不仅包括走SWIFT完成的交易，还囊括了其它路径的人民币结算交易。 如果是放到以前，两者的差距其实不大，但随着人民币国际化的推进情况发生了变化，SWIFT至少无法统计以下几条路径的人民币结算交易。 一是人民币境内支付交易。英国、加拿大等大量境内支付用的也是SWIFT报文系统，但中国境内支付是通过自身渠道完成信息传输的，这部分人民币支付不 纳入SWIFT统计之中。 二是小额支付不一定走SWIFT。一般来说，超过1万美元的大额跨境支付会使用SWIFT系统，低于这个数字的小额支付中只有一部分通过SWIFT网络完成， 这意味着大量小额人民币跨境支付无法被SWIFT统计到。当然，类似的情况也会发生在美元、欧元、英镑等货币上。 与此同时，央行行长潘功胜在2025陆家嘴论 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 光大研究一周热榜，精选"光溯" 小程序本周阅读量前十研报。 2025-06-27 No.1 抓住《稳定币条例草案》核心，结合产业链梳理,建议优先从 两个方向关注稳定币发展相关投资机会。1、人民币国际化战略 下,以人民币主导的跨境支付规模有望迅速提升,建议关注新 国都、拉卡拉、新大陆。2、看好蚂蚁集团在合规牌照、技术底 座、场景渗透、地缘联盟等多方面竞争优势,建议关注蚂蚁链 相关公司恒生电子、朗新集团等。风险提示：区块链技术发展 不及预期;政策落地不及预期;监管 ... 听光的声音/洞悉光的观察/了解光的态度 长按识别小程序码进入 光大证券小程序 阅读全文 意在重构全球支付体系，稳定币或将成为人民币 国际化的链上支点－－－－稳定币专题报 ...

为了弥补自己的财政赤字，美国依托国际货币霸权地位和全球金融市场的主导地位，放量发行美元购买 全球商品。因此，为了避免双赤字失控激发财政危机和金融危机，美国一定会竭力维持美元的货币霸权 地位，维持自身在全球货币金融体系的主导权。 美国近期推出的稳定币方案就是其中一种措施，其实际动机在于将稳定币与美元捆绑，扩张美国国债市 场与需求，推进全球去中心化、金融市场美元化，谋取全球去中心化金融市场的主导权，维持数字经济 时代的金融霸权，而这会加剧中美之间货币金融领域的直接竞争。 凤凰网财经讯 6月28-29日，"2025中国企业出海高峰论坛"在深圳举行，本次论坛由凤凰网主办，雪花超 高端系列品牌-醴首席赞助合作，中国企业出海全球化理事会联合主办，以"为开放的世界"为主题，旨 在全球产业链深度重构之际，为中国企业搭建思想碰撞、资源对接、规则对话的高端平台，系统性破解 出海难题，共探生态共赢转型路径。 中国银行原行长李礼辉 中国银行原行长李礼辉出席了论坛并发表了主旨演讲。演讲中，他对美国的金融现状作出分析。他指 出，美国双赤字结构性矛盾还在加剧、加深：一是贸易出口与进口严重失衡，制作业占国内生产总值的 比重曾经高达28.1% ...

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges and explore opportunities in the context of global industrial chain restructuring [1] Group 1: Competitive Environment for Outbound Enterprises - The primary competition faced by Chinese outbound enterprises is between China and the United States, with a notable decline in the share of exports to developed countries [4] - China's export share to the U.S. is projected to decrease from 16.2% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2024, while exports to the EU are expected to drop from 15.6% to 14.3% in the same period [4] - In the first quarter of this year, China's non-financial outbound investment reached $35.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, covering 4,023 enterprises across 143 countries and regions [4] Group 2: U.S. Financial Environment - The U.S. faces structural contradictions with significant trade deficits exceeding $500 billion annually and a national debt of $36 trillion, with interest payments surpassing $1 trillion per year [5] - To address its fiscal deficits, the U.S. is increasing the issuance of dollars to purchase global goods, maintaining its monetary hegemony [5] - Recent U.S. stablecoin initiatives aim to tie stablecoins to the dollar, expanding the U.S. debt market and asserting dominance in the decentralized financial market [6] Group 3: Financial Empowerment for Outbound Enterprises - The operating environment for Chinese outbound enterprises has significantly improved over the past two decades, supported by national policies, technological innovations, and a complete industrial chain [10] - Financial institutions have evolved from providing basic credit and insurance to offering comprehensive industrial chain financial services, aiding enterprises in optimizing global layouts and enhancing supply chain collaboration [11] - Chinese banks, such as the Bank of China, are expanding their financial products and services for outbound enterprises, including export credit, merger loans, and global cash management [12]

Core Insights - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on creating a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore win-win transformation paths [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The former president of the Bank of China, Li Lihui, analyzed the structural contradictions in the U.S. financial situation, highlighting a significant trade imbalance with annual trade deficits exceeding $500 billion and a decline in manufacturing's contribution to GDP from 28.1% to 9.96% by Q3 2024 [4] - Li pointed out the severe fiscal imbalance in the U.S., with national debt reaching $36 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion [4] Group 2: U.S. Financial Strategy - To address its fiscal deficits, the U.S. relies on its international monetary hegemony, issuing dollars to purchase global goods, which is essential for maintaining its dominant position in the global financial system [4] - The recent introduction of a stablecoin initiative by the U.S. aims to tie stablecoins to the dollar, expanding the U.S. Treasury market and promoting dollarization in global financial markets, intensifying competition with China in the monetary and financial sectors [4] Group 3: Recommendations for Financial Development - Recommendations include improving the monetary policy framework and financial market structure to enhance policy transmission efficiency and increase direct financing [5] - Emphasis on financial technology and institutional innovation to reconstruct financial services and management processes, thereby improving the capacity to serve the real economy and enhancing regulatory efficiency [5] - Advocating for a multipolar international monetary system to reduce reliance on a single sovereign currency and enhance the resilience of the global financial system [5] Group 4: Cross-Border Payment and Currency Internationalization - The need for a diversified cross-border payment system is highlighted, with a focus on establishing digital payment infrastructure and multilateral payment systems to prevent the politicization of payment tools [6] - The push for the internationalization of the Renminbi is emphasized, with the currency already being the third-largest payment currency globally, aiming to expand its functions in international payments, financing, and reserves [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the rise of the Chinese yuan, highlighting the geopolitical and financial implications of this shift [1][3]. Group 1: US Dollar's Challenges - The US is facing a debt crisis, exacerbated by failed plans such as the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" which aimed to convert US debt into long-term, interest-free bonds [3][5]. - The "Pennsylvania Plan," led by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, aims to stimulate domestic demand for US debt through financial repression and the promotion of dollar stablecoins [5][7]. - This strategy represents a high-stakes gamble, relying on domestic investors to absorb large amounts of US debt and the global reliance on the dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Risks and Consequences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk, as the Treasury's control over monetary policy could lead to corruption and mismanagement [7]. - Artificially lowering interest rates to manage debt could undermine the dollar's credibility, potentially leading to severe inflation [7][9]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves as a sign of diminishing confidence in the dollar [9][11]. Group 3: Rise of the Chinese Yuan - The appreciation of the yuan is seen as a response to the instability of the dollar system, prompting global capital to seek new safe havens [11]. - However, the yuan's rise presents challenges, as China's financial system must demonstrate resilience and depth to handle this influx of wealth [11]. - The future of the yuan as a reliable "hard currency" depends on China's ability to reform its financial markets, advance internationalization, and improve its exchange rate mechanism [11].

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"GDP下修与债务倒计时"，"北约峰会与对等关税"，"江河保护治理与小米发布会"，"虚拟币牌照与国产CPU"四个方面解读了基 本面的一些信息，并结合GDP，美债，加拿大，北约峰会，关税，金银油，水利，小米，SUV，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 我在前文《》提醒过大家，金价下方有个非常重要的均线支撑，并且未来大概率要去底部寻找支撑。 今天，黄金的价格从3328美元/盎司跌落，加速触及3255美元/盎司的低点。 除了中东局势避险降温以外，主要还是中美之前关税的消息。 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解， 中国将加快向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制 措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的 框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。 中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出 口申请。美方将相应取消对华采 ...

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are positioned as "digital cash" in the blockchain era, providing price stability through pegging to fiat currencies, commodities, or other assets, with applications in cryptocurrency trading, cross-border payments, and RWA transactions [2] Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 26, 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins is approximately $252.6 billion, with USDT and USDC together accounting for 87% of this total, valued at $157.9 billion and $61.4 billion respectively [3] Group 2: Profit Models - The profit model for fiat-collateralized stablecoins primarily relies on the management of reserve asset returns. Tether's reserves allocate 80% to cash or cash-like assets (mostly U.S. Treasury bonds) and 20% to Bitcoin and gold, while Circle's reserves consist of about 10% cash and 90% in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds or repurchase agreements. In 2024, Tether and Circle achieved net profits of $13 billion and $156 million respectively [4] Group 3: Regulatory Developments - Significant legislation has been passed, propelling stablecoins into a compliance-driven development phase. The U.S. "GENIUS Act" establishes a strict regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance, including issuer limitations and reserve asset requirements, and was passed in the Senate with a vote of 68 to 30 on June 17, 2025. Additionally, Hong Kong's Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance" requiring institutions issuing or promoting HKD stablecoins to obtain licenses with stringent standards [5] Group 4: Strategic Roles in Finance - The core of the "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins must be 100% backed by U.S. dollar cash or high liquidity assets like short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and issued by licensed entities. This creates a structural demand for U.S. Treasuries, shifting the holders from sovereign entities to ordinary users. In contrast, Hong Kong's regulations emphasize stablecoins as payment tools, contributing to the internationalization of the Renminbi, which has seen a notable increase in its share within the SWIFT cross-border settlement system and foreign exchange reserves [6]