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这下该傻眼了!伦敦交易所踢中国出局,紧要关头全球资本弃美投中
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 11:22
Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has announced that all metal futures trading must be settled in US dollars starting November 10, effectively suspending non-dollar denominated contracts, including those priced in Chinese yuan, raising questions about the underlying motives behind this decision [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trading volume of yuan-denominated copper futures reached 357,000 contracts in 2024, increasing to 482,000 contracts in the first half of 2025, indicating a growth of nearly 35%, contradicting LME's claim of "insufficient liquidity" [3]. - The LME's decision coincides with the US's plan to increase money supply and accelerate printing in December, suggesting a strategic move to maintain the dollar's dominance in the global commodities market [3][5]. - The LME, as a key platform for metal futures, has historically favored the dollar, despite the rising international status of the yuan [5][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The suspension of yuan futures appears to be a measure to protect the dollar's hegemony amid China's growing influence in the global metal market [5][8]. - The US has formed a critical mineral alliance with several countries to stabilize supply chains for essential metals, aiming to tie these resources to the dollar, which is seen as a direct challenge to China's rising market power [8][10]. Group 3: Shift in Trading Preferences - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has been gaining prominence, with significant increases in trading volumes for metals like copper and aluminum, indicating a shift away from dollar-denominated transactions [12][14]. - Following the LME's announcement, trading volume for copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 15%, demonstrating a preference for yuan settlements among global traders [12][19]. - Major international companies, including BMW and Volkswagen, have begun using yuan for metal transactions, reflecting a growing trend towards yuan settlements [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The rise of the yuan in metal trading is expected to lead to a dual pricing system where both the dollar and yuan coexist, enhancing market diversity and fairness [17][19]. - The promotion of digital yuan in countries like Indonesia, Chile, and Iran is laying the groundwork for further internationalization of the yuan, potentially reducing reliance on dollar settlements [16][19]. - The overall trend suggests that global capital is increasingly inclined towards markets that offer stable, transparent, and low-cost trading options, with yuan settlements becoming a significant choice [19].
为了美元霸权,老美直接想掀桌子了?
大胡子说房· 2025-11-12 10:47
Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has suspended all non-USD denominated metal options trading, which is seen as a move to reinforce the dominance of the USD in global commodity pricing and to counter the growing internationalization of the RMB [1][18]. Group 1 - The LME's official reason for the suspension is the low trading volume of non-USD contracts, which has led to higher maintenance costs than benefits [1]. - Despite the LME's claims, RMB-denominated metal futures trading has been significantly increasing, with daily trading volume for copper futures rising from over 300,000 contracts in 2024 to nearly 500,000 contracts in the first half of 2025, marking a nearly threefold increase over three years [1]. - The RMB's share in long-term metal transactions in regions like the Middle East and Africa has surpassed 30% [1]. Group 2 - The urgency from the U.S. to act against RMB internationalization stems from three main factors: the signing of RMB settlement agreements for iron ore with Australia, the successful issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds with a high subscription rate, and the upcoming shift in U.S. monetary policy towards quantitative easing [2][14]. - The issuance of U.S. sovereign bonds saw a subscription rate of 30 times the issuance amount, indicating strong international investor confidence [2][3]. Group 3 - The LME's actions are perceived as a direct challenge to the RMB's growing influence in global commodity pricing, aiming to reclaim USD's pricing power in key minerals [18]. - The potential emergence of two parallel pricing systems—one centered around the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the other around U.S. exchanges—could disrupt existing trade agreements, particularly those using RMB for settlement [20][21]. Group 4 - The U.S. strategy to limit RMB transactions could lead to a situation where countries like Australia reconsider their RMB settlement agreements if they become unprofitable due to rising USD-denominated prices [21][22]. - The ongoing "currency war" suggests that while the RMB may not immediately replace the USD, it will not be completely overshadowed by it either, leading to a more diversified global currency landscape [30]. Group 5 - The competition for pricing power will likely enhance the strategic position and valuation of related sectors in the A-share market, as more trading may shift to the Shanghai Futures Exchange [31]. - The focus on critical mineral supply chain security will increase attention on China's dominance in rare earths, presenting potential investment opportunities [32]. - The anticipated liquidity influx from U.S. monetary policy changes could alter market dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for investors [32].
黄奇帆:美国打压十年,为何中国制造业反而更强了?
和讯· 2025-11-12 10:10
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic pressure exerted by the United States on China over the past decade has failed, as evidenced by China's manufacturing value-added share of the global market increasing from 20% in 2010 to 32% in 2023, creating a tripartite division among developed countries, developing countries, and China [2]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's external dependence has stabilized at 38% since 2016, despite U.S. pressures, indicating a strategic shift from an external to an internal economic focus, which is seen as a necessary choice for a strong economy [3][4]. - Historically, China's economic openness has evolved through three phases: absolute internal circulation (10% external trade dependence from 1950-1980), external circulation dominance (71% peak from 1980-2010), and the current phase of internal circulation [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing Leadership - In the manufacturing sector, China has transitioned from a follower to a leader, with significant advancements in five key areas: shipbuilding, rail transit, power generation equipment, new energy, and automobiles, with the latter producing 30 million vehicles annually, accounting for one-third of global output [4]. - The semiconductor industry has seen remarkable growth, with China's share of global integrated circuit production rising from 1% in 2017 to 40% in 2024, and exports reaching $150 billion, making it the largest export category for China [4]. Group 3: Future Openings - The future focus of China's openness is shifting from "cautious" to "orderly," with an emphasis on increasing the internationalization of the Renminbi, which currently accounts for only 3%-4% of global international clearing despite China’s GDP being 20% of the world [5]. - A key goal is the integration of domestic and foreign trade, aiming for a unified standard for products by 2035, which will enhance resource allocation flexibility in global markets [5]. Group 4: Regional Development - The "Belt and Road" initiative is facilitating a shift from maritime trade dependence to a coordinated land-sea approach, with plans to construct nine land corridors that could enable 50% of China-Europe trade to be conducted via land ports in the future [6].
港交所4.55亿港元入股香港金管局旗下迅清结算控股
据了解,这项战略性投资建基于香港交易所与迅清结算于2025年3月签订的合作备忘录。而迅清结算是 香港金管局旗下公司,负责营运债务工具中央结算系统(CMU)。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 香港报道 11月12日,香港交易所宣布,与迅清结算有限公司(迅清结算)达成协议,投资最多4.55亿港元购入迅 清结算控股新发行的股份。交易完成后,香港交易所与香港金融管理局(香港金管局)旗下外汇基金将 分别持有迅清结算控股的20%及80%股权。 香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波指出,香港要通过制度创新开辟新的增长曲线。这次双方合作有三大战 略意义,包括提升投资效率和灵活度;释放流动性,促进产品创新,提升香港风险管理中心的功能以及 助力人民币国际化。 陈茂波表示,过去CMU专注于提供债券相关服务,未来将发展成为多元化的资产交收结算平台。这不 仅会加速其商业化发展,更重要的是打破债券和股票之间的传统壁垒,推动跨产品、跨市场、跨领域的 抵押品互通,并围绕相关增值服务进行创新发展。 港交所CEO陈翊庭表示,发展固定收益及货币业务是交易所重点业务战略之一,有关投资展现交易所致 力构建多元资产类别生态圈,有助于市场长远稳健发展,旨 ...
星展:中银香港(02388)将受益于人民币代币化和国际化长期机遇
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 08:52
Core Viewpoint - Regulatory discussions dominated the digital asset forum during Hong Kong FinTech Week, highlighting the evolving regulatory framework in the digital asset sector compared to traditional finance [1] Company Analysis - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) with a target price of HKD 39.4 and for OSL Group (00863) with a target price of HKD 20 [1] - The report emphasizes that Chinese regulators are cautious but not prohibitive regarding digital assets, with a focus on the internationalization of the Renminbi and the development of digital assets, including the central bank digital currency (e-CNY) [1] - The bank plays a crucial role in the digital asset space, countering concerns that stablecoins might disrupt banking operations, as banks are deeply involved in digital assets [1] Industry Outlook - A positive outlook is maintained for Hong Kong banks and fintech companies, with potential catalysts for fintech stock prices in the short term, such as the approval of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and favorable cryptocurrency policies in the U.S. [1] - The bank prefers companies with clear stablecoin and digital asset application scenarios, including OSL Group (00863), LianLian Digital (02598), and Linklogis Technology-W (09959) [1] - Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) is expected to benefit from long-term opportunities related to the tokenization and internationalization of the Renminbi [1]
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20251112
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 08:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5762, down 0.41%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5580, down 20 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] - On November 12, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5490, down 0.83%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5240, down 30 yuan/ton. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SM main contract was 5,762.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,490.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00. [2] - The SM futures contract position was 582,481.00 lots, up 2096.00; the SF futures contract position was 379,354.00 lots, up 20468.00. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon was - 46,046.00 lots, up 3175.00; the net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon was - 25,289.00 lots, up 4776.00. [2] - The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 56.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 26.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. [2] - The SM warehouse receipt was 18,263.00; the SF warehouse receipt was - 20.00. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00; the price of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,300.00 yuan/ton, up 144.00. [2] - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5580.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00; the price of Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 was 5,580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B was 5,240.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon index average was 5595.00 yuan/ton, down 51.00; the SF main contract basis was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 32.00. [2] - The SM main contract basis was - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block: Tianjin Port was 32.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98% Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1250.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 880.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 439.70 million tons, up 8.30. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate was 40.24%, down 2.75; the ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate was 36.26%, up 0.18. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 201,880.00 tons, down 5845.00; the ferrosilicon supply was 114,100.00 tons, up 900.00. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 319,500.00 tons, up 5000.00; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 78,690.00 tons, up 6700.00. [2] - The national steel mill inventory of manganese - silicon was 15.70 days, down 0.23; the national steel mill inventory of ferrosilicon was 15.67 days, up 0.15. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types was 121113.00 tons, down 3379.00; the demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types was 19813.70 tons, down 461.60. [2] - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, up 1.42; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.79%, down 0.80. [2] - The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Xinjiang steel mills' winter maintenance and production cuts are advancing. It is estimated that during the winter shutdown and production cut period, Xinjiang will reduce the production of construction steel by about 2 million tons, accounting for about 25% of the estimated total production of construction steel in Xinjiang in 2025. [2] - The central bank pointed out in the Third - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report that it will strengthen the consistency of macro - policy orientation, conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, study and implement policies to support individuals in repairing their credit, promote the internationalization of the RMB, and improve the level of capital account opening. [2] - The current RMB loan balance in China has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. As the base increases, the growth rate of financial aggregates will decline in the future, which is in line with China's economic transformation from high - speed growth to high - quality development. The central bank will continue to optimize intermediate variables of monetary policy and gradually淡化 its focus on quantitative targets. [2] - The central bank will conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments according to changes in the economic and financial situation, and closely monitor changes in the monetary policies of major overseas central banks, and strengthen the analysis and monitoring of the supply and demand of bank system liquidity and changes in the financial market. [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For manganese - silicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the inventory rebounded rapidly, the output continued to decline slightly from a high level, the inventory increased for 6 consecutive weeks, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 83,000 tons, and the demand for hot metal decreased seasonally. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 190 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 280 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] - For ferrosilicon, on November 12, the contract price decreased, the spot price decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory rebounded significantly this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 390 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 580 yuan/ton. [2]
专业赋能跨境业务 服务链接全球资源 ——兴业银行上海分行积极服务进博盛会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 08:33
Group 1 - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) is held from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai, serving as a significant platform for global enterprises to integrate with the Chinese market [1] - The expo showcases global goods and technologies while providing a platform for financial institutions to deepen international cooperation and support global trade enterprises [1] - Industrial Bank's Shanghai branch actively participates in the expo, focusing on financial technology and business innovation, offering a range of digital and intelligent international business products [1] Group 2 - Industrial Bank's Shanghai branch leverages the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to explore various products that cater to the cross-border financing needs of high-quality foreign enterprises [2] - The bank successfully provided a comprehensive cross-border financing solution to a leading shipping company, enhancing its financing cost and settlement convenience [2] - This achievement marks a significant step for the bank in the cross-border financing sector, demonstrating its strengthened capability to serve global enterprises [2] Group 3 - In the digital era, the evolution of currency and payment systems is inevitable, and Industrial Bank's Shanghai branch is implementing a cross-chain payment system using digital RMB [3] - The bank's "Xingyin Chain" connects to the digital RMB blockchain service platform, enabling rapid cross-border fund transfers and significantly improving settlement efficiency [3] - Many foreign enterprises along the Belt and Road Initiative expressed great interest in the bank's cross-border and cross-chain digital currency payment solutions during the expo [3] Group 4 - Industrial Bank's Shanghai branch emphasizes the development of international business, showcasing its international settlement system and diverse cross-border financing products at the expo [3] - The bank aims to enhance the internationalization of the RMB and create an efficient and secure cross-border payment system [3] - The branch is committed to deepening its professional capabilities to contribute to the prosperity of the global economy and trade [3]
阿联酋大笔一挥,向中国转了5000万迪拉姆,或将撼动美元霸权根基
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 08:11
说起阿联酋和中国的金融合作,这几年真是越来越紧密,尤其是2024年那次转账事件,表面上看只是小小一笔钱,但背后的含义可不小。2024年1月29日, 阿联酋中央银行搞了个成立50周年的活动,就在首都阿布扎比,那天他们直接用数字货币转了5000万迪拉姆给中国。 这笔钱换成美元也就1360万左右,人民币不到1亿,对两国贸易来说不算啥大数目,但关键是用上了mBridge这个平台。这是个多央行数字货币桥接系统,由 国际清算银行牵头,中国人民银行、阿联酋央行、泰国银行和香港金管局一块儿搞的。 转账是阿联酋副总统兼央行董事会主席谢赫·曼苏尔·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬亲自操作的,用的是他们的数字迪拉姆,直接发到中国银行账户上。整个过程实时 完成,没用传统银行渠道,避免了中间环节的麻烦。 这事儿不是临时起意,早有铺垫。2023年11月,中国和阿联酋央行就续签了价值350亿人民币的本币互换协议,为期五年,目的是方便两国用本地货币做生 意。阿联酋作为产油大国,早就开始在原油贸易中试水人民币结算,这次转账算是把数字技术加进去,进一步简化了跨境支付。mBridge平台基于分布式账 本技术,确保交易安全透明,参与方都能实时看到资金流动。 ...
黄奇帆:中国对外开放有五大新任务
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-12 07:14
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes five new key tasks for China's opening-up strategy as outlined in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, focusing on institutional opening, service trade, Belt and Road Initiative, free trade, and the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][2][3] Group 2 - The first task is to achieve the integration of internal and external circulation mechanisms, ensuring that the rules and standards for imports, exports, and domestic sales are consistent, thereby creating a unified trade system [1] - The second task is to increase the proportion of service trade in China's overall trade, highlighting that a strong service trade sector is essential for becoming a true trade power [1] - The third task involves enhancing the Belt and Road Initiative to promote coordinated opening among different regions of China, addressing the disparity between coastal and inland areas through improved trade routes [2] - The fourth task is to advance free trade by transforming China's free trade zones from isolated points into a network that covers over 30 provinces and cities, laying the groundwork for future economic cooperation with the US, Japan, and Europe [2] - The fifth task is to orderly promote the internationalization of the Renminbi, indicating that there is significant potential for growth in its international status, which requires further efforts in cross-border trade and the development of offshore markets [3]
陈茂波:港交所入股迅清结算控股 加速推动金融基建高效联通
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-12 06:48
他还表示,此次合作将助力人民币国际化,进一步提升香港国际金融中心地位。离岸人民币市场持续发 展,人民币国际化正稳慎推进,市场对离岸人民币资金管理及投资产品的需求持续提升。高效、综合的 平台有助降低国际投资者持有和交易人民币资产的门槛与成本,鼓励国际资本更多配置中国资产,为人 民币国际化的稳慎推进贡献力量。 另外,陈茂波呼吁各界于12月7日香港立法会选举中投票。 11月12日,香港金管局、港交所(00388)及迅清结算控股就深化策略伙伴合作举行签约仪式。香港财政 司司长陈茂波致辞时指,此次策略性合作是加速推动金融基建高效联通关键一步,更加是香港金融市场 跨越式发展。他称,此次合作在香港的金融发展蓝图中有着重大意义。该交易突显香港力求杠杆更大的 市场力量,加速推动金融基建的高效联通与创新发展。香港金管局和港交所强强联手,为香港国际金融 市场提速和深化发展创造有利条件。 陈茂波指出,这次双方的合作,有三大战略意义。此次合作提升投资效率和灵活度,相信未来将有更多 国际投资者配置包括中国国债的内地资产。香港作为全球最大离岸人民币中心,以及点心债主要交易市 场,流入香港的资金量及香港托管的资产总值将持续增加。对于投资者而 ...