本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 近年来，黄金、白银等贵金属价格持续走高，并带动A股相关的贵金属板块走强。 其中， COMEX黄金期货在2024年上涨27.39%，2025年上涨64.03%，2026年以来（截至3月2日）已经 涨超24%；A股的黄金股板块指数（东方财富板块指数）2024年上涨12.53%，2025年上涨 95.64%，2026年以来（截至3月2日）已经涨近73%。 贵金属期货相关A股板块的亮眼表现，吸 引了众多投资者的关注。 那么，贵金属近几年来为何表现如此强劲呢？经过近几年的上涨，贵金属期货和相关的A股板 块，目前累计涨幅都比较大，是该继续持有还是落袋为安？为了给投资者解惑，笔者特采访 了 中欧瑞博、盛麒资产、钧富投资、乾图投资、联海资产、泽元投资、持赢私募、观理基金、波粒 二象私募 等多家知名私募。 01 近年来，黄金期货价格持续上涨， 贵司 认为背后的主要驱动因素是什么？ 中欧瑞博联席投资总监黄松杰： 金价上涨的中长期逻辑主要是去美元、央行购金和地缘/贸易冲 突升级、美联储降息。2026年开年以来的金价上涨的短期触发因素是：格陵兰岛争端引发的欧美 贸易冲突 ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： 16 | | --- | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.55%报 112.740 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 108.530 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 106.080 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.464 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，3 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 190 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term prices of precious metals may continue to strengthen due to the tense Middle - East situation and potential inflation, while the long - term logic of central bank gold - buying and de - dollarization remains unchanged. For copper, it's advisable to wait and see for buying opportunities. The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Alumina prices will likely maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the actual resumption of large factories. The price of lithium carbonate will likely oscillate at a high level. Polysilicon and tin prices are expected to be weakly volatile. In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is recommended, and short positions can be considered for some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of each variety. In the energy - chemical industry, the trading of most products is affected by geopolitical risks, with different trends and strategies for each product [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the international gold price in London gold terms rose 0.82% to $5382 per ounce, and the international silver price in London silver terms rose 4.84% to $89.28 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, changes in US economic data, and fluctuations in gold and silver inventories and ETF holdings [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly yesterday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, tight copper ore supply, high smelting production, and weak demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for buying opportunities [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 2.63% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly starting rate of aluminum products [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose 1.06% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 154 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity due to a combination of maintenance and resumption in alumina plants, and high - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with an increase in open interest and a decrease in settled funds and warehouse receipts [2]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces in the supply side, a slight increase in inventory, and the resumption of production in the downstream organic silicon and polysilicon industries [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual resumption of large factories [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 172,020 yuan/ton, a 2.28% decrease [2]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in production and a decrease in inventory in the first quarter, with different inventory trends in different links [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will likely oscillate at a high level [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 44930 yuan/ton, a 3.37% decrease, with an increase in open interest and a decrease in settled funds [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable production, an increase in inventory, and stable downstream prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the 44000 - 53000 yuan range [2]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices weakened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A stronger US dollar, expected limited resumption of production in Wa State, and a premium for deliverable brands [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade the short - term negative impact of resumption in Wa State and wait for a stable period to buy [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3059 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: A 50% increase in rebar inventory, a significant supply - demand differentiation in steel products, and low rebar futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3030 - 3090 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 749 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, low port inventory, and neutral valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with the I05 reference range of 735 - 765 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1084.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first - round coke price increase, high port and pit - mouth inventory, and high futures valuation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider short positions in the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1110 [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean price fell overnight [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A good harvest expectation in South America, strong soybean crushing in the US, and a strong export expectation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean is strong, and the domestic market is short - term volatile and slightly stronger, with attention to US soybean exports and South American production [5]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures and spot prices continued to rise [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Over 60% of grain sales, low port and downstream inventory, and downstream losses [5][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to downstream replenishment [7]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in February and a decrease in exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are in a weak cycle, but they rebounded due to the sharp rise in crude oil, with a reverse - spread strategy [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in US textile and clothing imports and a change in Argentine cotton exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with the price range of 15000 - 15800 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, with sufficient supply [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the supply of pigs after the holiday and a seasonal off - season for demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose significantly yesterday, with a weak basis and good market transactions [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A slowdown in domestic supply pressure and an increase in demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, with the upside space limited by the import window [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4868, a 1.6% increase [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An expected increase in PVC cost, high social inventory, and weak downstream demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1043, a 0.8% decrease [9]. - **Fundamentals**: A slowdown in glass production and sales in North China, an increase in inventory, and weak real - estate demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rose significantly yesterday, with a weak basis, good transactions, a closed import window, and an open export window [9]. - **Fundamentals**: A reduction in supply pressure and an increase in demand [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, with the upside space limited by the import window; in the long term, it will be range - bound, and short positions can be considered at high prices [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC opened with a daily limit on Monday and rose 11% at night, with a $3 premium over Brent [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Iran's high - concentration oil production and exports, and the potential impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading by buying options to control risks [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of EB rose significantly yesterday, with good market transactions and a closed import window [10]. - **Fundamentals**: A normal - high level of pure benzene inventory, a normal level of styrene inventory, and an increase in downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and long positions can be considered at low prices in the second quarter [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1188, a 0.2% increase [10]. - **Fundamentals**: A recovery in soda ash supply, an increase in inventory, and weak downstream demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10].

Group 1: Market Strategy - The report highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to underperform due to an upcoming peak in lock-up expirations, with significant unlocks in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals, amounting to HKD 87.2 billion, which is higher than the previous peak at the end of last year [2] - The deadline for annual report disclosures for Hong Kong companies is approaching, which may exert downward pressure on performance, as companies with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year must announce preliminary results by March 31 [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts, are noted as a secondary factor affecting market sentiment, although the overall impact on the Hong Kong market may be limited due to a general strengthening of non-US assets [2] Group 2: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the factors driving the appreciation of the Renminbi since 2026, identifying three key realities: a resurgence of de-dollarization narratives, a high proportion of trade surplus turning into income at approximately 77.6%, and a rebound in domestic Producer Price Index (PPI) alongside a strong stock market opening [2] - The report references a previous analysis that outlined four key reasons for the accelerated appreciation of the Renminbi, emphasizing the importance of the central parity signal and the release of foreign exchange settlements as ongoing factors [2]

Key Points - The report highlights a significant escalation in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran, which has led to increased volatility in global markets. The situation includes military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran, resulting in the death of Iranian leaders and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [4][10][12]. - Global asset prices have begun to reflect the impending geopolitical conflict, with gold and oil prices rising significantly. Gold prices increased from $4,800 to over $5,200 per ounce, while Brent crude oil prices rose from $66 to $73 per barrel over the past two weeks [11][12]. - The report identifies four key factors that will influence future global asset trends: the duration of the Strait of Hormuz's closure, the potential change in Iran's regime and its response, the U.S. government's subsequent actions, and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments in response to rising oil prices and inflation [12][14][15]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, with the 10-year yield falling from 4.06% to 3.945% due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [11]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a slight decline of 0.44%, while energy and defense stocks have performed better amid the geopolitical tensions [11][12]. - Non-U.S. equity markets have seen a positive response, with European and Japanese markets experiencing notable gains over the past two weeks [11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) has exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [20]. - In Europe, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has decreased to 1.9%, while France's CPI has rebounded to 1.0% [27]. - Japan's Tokyo CPI has shown a slight increase to 1.6%, indicating a modest inflationary trend [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to an increase in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the gold price has risen. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5296 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $5470, and the lower support level is $5200 [7]. - Due to the same reasons, the silver price has risen. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 11.6%, closing at $94.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $84, and the upper resistance level is $110 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the increase in precious metal prices are the same as those in the market review. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price [16][18][21][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The US January PPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 3%. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, lower than the expected 215,000 but higher than the previous value of 206,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - The US and Israel launched a war against Iran, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has died, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of Iran's counter - attack and the scope of conflict spread. - The US January PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 2.6%; it increased by 0.5% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3%. Excluding food and energy with large fluctuations, the January core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 3%; it increased by 0.8% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% [27]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18,634.10 kg to 1,036,403.92 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 12 kg to 105,060 kg. - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 184,273.82 kg to 11,207,602.01 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,963 kg to 306,596 kg [14][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of February 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 162,188 lots, an increase of 7,597 lots compared with last week. - As of February 24, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 20,723 lots, a decrease of 2,133 lots compared with last week [14][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (March 4) at 21:15, the change in the US February ADP employment number will be released. - On Friday (March 6) at 21:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in the US February non - farm employment population and the US February unemployment rate will be released [37].

2026 年 3 月 2 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1151.34 | 1147.900 | 22775 | 23019 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1150.10 | 1146.480 | 22286 | 22572 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 1.24 | 1.420 | 489 | 447 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.11% | 0.12% | 2.19% | 1.98% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 105733 | 150146 | 162275 | 171170 | | | | 成交量 | 44122 | 194710 | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the global financial landscape driven by the rise of stablecoins, the challenges faced by traditional financial systems, and the implications for individual wealth management in the digital age [2][21]. Group 1: Traditional Financial System Cracks - The current global financial market, despite its apparent prosperity, is experiencing significant underlying issues, highlighted by the surge in gold prices as a reflection of declining trust in existing monetary systems [4]. - The inefficiencies of the SWIFT system and the inflationary pressures on the US dollar are leading to a growing trend of "de-dollarization" among nations [4][5]. - The emergence of cryptocurrencies aimed to disrupt traditional finance but faced challenges such as volatility and operational limitations, paving the way for the rise of stablecoins [4][5]. Group 2: The Stablecoin Landscape - Stablecoins are not a monolithic entity; they represent a complex interplay of power dynamics, including centralization versus decentralization, and the competition between issuers and regulatory bodies [6][7]. - Different types of stablecoins, such as fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC) and crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), exhibit varying degrees of stability and risk, with concerns over transparency and regulatory compliance [7][8]. - The competition among stablecoin issuers and the regulatory landscape is crucial for understanding the future of digital currencies and their role in the financial system [8]. Group 3: Impact on Global Financial Order - The growing scale of stablecoins is challenging sovereign currencies and reshaping global financial infrastructure, affecting every country and individual [10][11]. - Stablecoins are emerging as alternatives for smaller nations facing economic instability, while major economies like the US and China are navigating their own digital currency strategies [11][12]. - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) is heavily reliant on stablecoins, which serve as essential components for various financial services, although they also introduce new risks reminiscent of past financial crises [12]. Group 4: Opportunities and Risks for Individuals - The new monetary war presents both unprecedented wealth opportunities and significant financial risks for ordinary individuals, driven by market volatility and the emergence of stablecoins [14][15]. - The book provides a guide for individuals to identify arbitrage opportunities and understand the potential of stablecoins as a hedge against inflation [15]. - However, the digital financial landscape also harbors risks such as money laundering and fraud, necessitating awareness and understanding of the underlying rules to protect assets [15]. Group 5: Future of CBDC and Stablecoins - The competition between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will shape the future of the monetary landscape, with implications for global financial power dynamics [17][18]. - The book outlines three potential scenarios for the future of digital currencies, emphasizing the importance of technological integration and regulatory frameworks [18][19]. - The ultimate question remains: who holds the power to issue credit, a theme that has evolved with the advent of stablecoins and their role in the digital currency era [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although the prices of NYMEX platinum and palladium have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has affected the prices, but long - term factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuation of the global central bank's gold - buying wave, and supply - demand imbalances in the industry still support the prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume Information**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 623.75, 616.80, and 610.65 respectively, with price increases of 31.60, 29.85, and 30.25 and increases of 5.34%, 5.09%, and 5.21% respectively. The trading volumes are 16904, 384, and 138 respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 464.85, 458.50, and 458.00 respectively, with price increases of 12.55, 10.20, and 10.70 and increases of 2.77%, 2.28%, and 2.39% respectively. The trading volumes are 4636, 84, and 27 respectively [1] - **Position Information**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are all 12639 and 4428 respectively [1] - **Spot Premium Information**: The spot premiums of platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610) are - 13.76, - 6.81, and - 0.66 respectively. The spot premiums of palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610) are - 16.85, - 10.5, and - 10 respectively [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Price and Change Information**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Feng Xiang platinum are 609.99 yuan/g, 2366.00 dollars/ounce, 893.00 yuan/g, and 960.00 yuan/g respectively. The price changes are 18.39, 111.00, - 12.00, and 0.00 respectively, with price increase rates of 0.031%, 0.049%, - 0.013%, and 0.000% respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 448.00 yuan/g and 4394.91 rubles/g respectively, with price changes of 2.00 and - 147.57 respectively, and price increase rates of 0.004% and - 0.032% respectively [1] - **Ratio Information**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.36, 1.11, - 6.95, - 13.10, 1.11, and - 6.35 respectively, while the previous values are 9.19, 0.72, - 6.50, - 10.60, - 0.15, and - 0.55 respectively [1] 3.3 Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The current NYMEX platinum inventory is 577,735.59 ounces, a decrease of 459.6 ounces compared to the previous value. The NYMEX registered platinum warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The trading volume of platinum on the gold exchange is 3,696.15 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 1685.6 ten - thousand yuan compared to the previous value, and the trading volume is 62.00 kilograms, an increase of 28.00 kilograms compared to the previous value [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 186,268.54 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives - **Related Indexes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury bond yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.64, 6,878.88, 3.97, 22,668.21, 48,977.92, and 6.92 respectively, with changes of - 0.14, - 29.98, - 0.05, - 210.17, - 521.28, and 0.00 respectively compared to the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current values of Shanghai gold futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 1147.90, 1151.34, and 1154.28 respectively, with increases of 1.42, 1.24, and 1.28 respectively compared to the previous closing prices. The current values of Shanghai silver futures (2604, 2606, 2608) are 23019.00, 22775.00, and 22736.00 respectively, with increases of 447, 489, and 558 respectively compared to the previous closing prices [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Geopolitical Events**: The military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran have led to disruptions in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - **US Fed Personnel Changes**: Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination faces opposition. The Fed has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, and Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [2] - **China's Central Bank Policy**: The People's Bank of China has held a 2026 payment and settlement work conference, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system and strengthening regulatory measures [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The monetary policy is expected to remain loose, and the market outlook still faces certain pressure, so caution is advised [7][8]. - The domestic stock index is expected to have a gradually rising central fluctuation level, and long positions can be continued to hold [10]. - The precious metal market is expected to have significantly amplified volatility, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - The crude oil and fuel oil markets are recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities [24][27][28][29]. - The polyolefin market is advised to be observed for now [30][31]. - The synthetic rubber, natural rubber, PVC, copper, and aluminum markets are expected to be in a moderately strong and volatile state [32][33][34][35][36][37][39][57][58][59][60]. - The zinc market is expected to move in a volatile manner [61][62]. - The lead market is expected to be in a weakly volatile state [63][64]. - The tin market has support at the bottom, but attention should be paid to controlling risks due to the uncertainty of overseas situations [65][66]. - For the nickel market, attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - event disturbances [67]. - For the soybean meal and palm oil markets, long - buying opportunities at low - cost support levels can be considered, and the palm oil market can also adopt a long - biased approach [68][69][70][71]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [75][76][77]. - The sugar market is advised to be observed [78][79][80]. - The apple market is expected to have a strong price trend in the medium - to - long term [81][82][83]. - The pig market is expected to continue its weak performance, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities to short at high levels [84][85]. - The egg market is advised to hold short positions for the far - month contracts [86][87]. - The corn and corn starch markets should wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure, and the corn starch market is expected to follow the corn market [88][89][90]. - The log market should focus on external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [92][93]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main contract price fell 1.28% to 5246 yuan/ton. The inventory continued to accumulate, with a 9.38% week - on - week increase. The downstream has rigid demand for restocking, and the external cost is high, which supports the price. The future increase depends on the downstream demand [54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - The main contract fell 0.61% to 176040 yuan/ton. The supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and there is short - term support at the bottom, but the short - term volatility may increase. Attention should be paid to relevant events and data [56]. Copper - The main contract rose 0.45% to 103280 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is complex, and the supply is restricted. The demand shows seasonal recovery and structural differentiation. The inventory pressure is high, and the price may be moderately strong and volatile in the short term [57][58]. Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.11% to 23730 yuan/ton, and the alumina contract fell 0.4%. The alumina market is oversupplied, and the aluminum price may be moderately strong and volatile under the influence of macro - factors and energy prices, but the upside is limited by high inventory [59][60]. Zinc - The main contract fell 0.53% to 24445 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may accumulate. The fundamentals lack driving force, and the price may move in a volatile manner [61][62]. Lead - The main contract fell 0.12% to 16770 yuan/ton. The supply recovery is restricted, the demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the price may be weakly volatile [63][64]. Tin - The main contract rose 5.65% to 455610 yuan/ton. The supply tightness has eased, the demand has support, and the inventory has decreased. The overseas situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to risk control [65][66]. Nickel - The main contract fell 0.51% to 138660 yuan/ton. There is a shortage expectation of nickel ore, but the consumption is not optimistic, and the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia and macro - events [67]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract was flat at 2833 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.17% to 8226 yuan/ton. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal has moderate growth, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Different investment strategies can be adopted [68][69]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose slightly. The export is sluggish, and the domestic inventory is stable. A long - biased approach can be considered [70][71]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed meal price in Guangxi fell 20 to 2350, and the rapeseed oil price in Guangxi remained stable at 10130. The rapeseed oil market can consider a long - biased approach [72][73][74]. Cotton - The domestic cotton futures rose first and then fell, and the external cotton rose slightly. The new - year global cotton is expected to reduce production and enter the de - stocking cycle. The domestic supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [75][76][77]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures fell slightly, and the external sugar was weakly volatile. The overseas situation is favorable, but the domestic supply is sufficient. It is advisable to observe [78][79][80]. Apple - The apple futures fluctuated, and the spot market was stable. The inventory this year is low and the quality is poor. The price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [81][82][83]. Live Pigs - The main contract rose 0.57% to 11485 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is high, and the price is expected to be weak. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to short at high levels [84][85]. Eggs - The main contract rose 0.65% to 3267 yuan/500kg. The supply in March is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is advisable to hold short positions for the far - month contracts [86][87]. Corn & Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.68% to 2360 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.11% to 2667 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needs to be released, and the corn starch market is expected to follow the corn market [88][89][90]. Logs - The main contract rose 0.44% to 798.5 yuan/ton. The shipping volume has returned to normal, and the demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to external quotes, shipping dynamics, and downstream consumption [92][93].