贵金属数据日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 用器500强投资企业 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/30 | 3292. 28 | 36. 21 | 3303. 50 | 36. 44 | 765. 46 | 8762.00 | 762.56 | 8742. 00 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has been influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies since 2025, leading to a significant decline in the U.S. dollar index, which fell by 10.72%, marking the largest drop for the same period since 1973, sparking discussions about the potential decline of the dollar's dominance [2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - Non-U.S. currencies have generally appreciated, with notable performances from the Swiss Franc, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen. The Euro appreciated by 13.86% against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2025, while the Swiss Franc rose by 12.59%, and the British Pound approached a 10% increase [2]. - The offshore Chinese Yuan saw a modest increase of 2.27% against the U.S. dollar, with the midpoint exchange rate appreciating by 298 points [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies has pressured the dollar, with market expectations that the loose monetary and fiscal policies favored by the Trump administration will lead to a significant decline in real interest rates, contributing to dollar weakness [8]. - Speculative short positions on the dollar reached their highest level since July 2023, indicating a shift in global investors' perspectives on dollar allocation in their portfolios [8]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a trend of funds flowing out of U.S. assets, this trend is not yet widespread or necessarily sustainable [8]. Group 3: Future Dollar Outlook - Analysts predict that the dollar will continue to face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 due to multiple negative factors, including uncertainties related to U.S. tariffs and increasing concerns about U.S. Treasury securities [9]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant depreciation of the dollar, predicting a 9% decline in the dollar index, potentially reaching around 91 points by 2026 [10]. Group 4: Euro's Position - The Euro has gained a more risk-averse status compared to the dollar, with expectations that it may continue to appreciate, potentially reaching 1.20 against the dollar by the end of 2025 [14]. - Analysts believe that the Euro's strength will depend on the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, with potential support from improving economic conditions in the Eurozone [15]. Group 5: Asian Currencies - Some Asian currencies may experience significant appreciation against the dollar in the context of a weakening dollar, with the Japanese Yen expected to fluctuate between 137 and 145 against the dollar [16]. - The future trajectory of the Chinese Yuan is closely tied to the dollar's outlook, with expectations of a stable appreciation, potentially within the range of 7.05 to 7.25 [17].

咱们中国也是美国国债的主要持有国之一。这些年，出于各种经济和战略考虑，我们持有了一定数量的 美国国债。虽说我们一直在进行外汇储备的多元化，逐步减持美国国债，但目前持仓量依然不小。一旦 美国违约，我们的外汇资产会遭受损失。不过，咱们中国经济的韧性很强，有足够的应对措施。这些 年，我们大力推动内需，加强国内经济的循环，降低对外部市场的依赖。同时，我们也在积极推进人民 币国际化，扩大人民币在国际贸易和投资中的使用范围。所以，相比其他一些国家，我们有更多的缓冲 空间和应对手段，但这并不意味着我们不会受到影响，损失总归是让人不舒服的。 还有全球金融市场，那更是会被搅得一团糟。美国国债一直被视为全球金融市场的重要基准资产，很多 金融产品的定价都和它有关。一旦美国国债违约，全球金融市场的定价体系就会乱套，各种金融产品的 价格波动会加剧，投资者会陷入恐慌，大量资金会从风险资产撤离，寻求更安全的避风港。新兴市场国 家受到的冲击可能尤为严重，资金外流，货币贬值，经济增长受到抑制，很多国家多年的发展成果可能 毁于一旦，这些国家的政府和人民能不哭吗？ 从长远来看，如果美国真的出现国债违约，美元的国际地位也会受到严重动摇。长期以来，美 ...

Group 1 - The long-term drivers for gold prices remain supportive, but there is hesitation for upward movement due to high price levels [1] - The recent decline of the US dollar has contributed to a rebound in gold prices, with expectations for further upward movement if US employment data indicates a weaker economy [2] - The ongoing credit crisis in US Treasury bonds and the trend towards de-dollarization support a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2][3] Group 2 - Central bank purchases of gold have significantly increased, with over 1,000 tons bought in the past three years, indicating a shift in market dynamics where gold is viewed as a store of value and diversification tool [3] - The weak US dollar and pressure from the current US administration for interest rate cuts are interrelated factors supporting gold prices [3] - Market focus remains on upcoming US non-farm payroll data, which could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [3]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to reduce the fiscal deficit, which would improve the supply-demand balance of U.S. debt and lower interest rates [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Senate version of the Trump tax reform and spending bill could increase the U.S. deficit by nearly $3.3 trillion over the next decade if passed [1] - BlackRock warns that rising U.S. government debt may diminish investor interest in long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, citing concerns over the stability of the dollar as a reserve currency [1] Group 2 - BlackRock indicates that higher government debt could disrupt the typical correlation between long-term U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to rising yields even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates [2] - The increase in U.S. debt supply may face reduced demand from the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks [2]

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.43%报 120.420 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.16%报 108.895 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 106.160 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.05%报 102.498 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，6 月 30 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3315 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 3315 亿元，中标量 3315 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 2205 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1110 亿元。 中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.7，前值 49.5，制造业景气水平继续改善。中国 6 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 50.5，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，非制造业总体继续保持扩张。 6 月份，综合 PMI 产出指 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月01日 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:宏观经济专题研究-去美元化下的央行购金行为研究 行业与公司 能源电子月报：碳化硅车型持续下沉，应用场景逐步铺开 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-30 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3444.42 | 10465.11 | 3936.07 | 11887.95 | 3030.63 | 1003.41 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.58 | 0.83 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 1.59 | 1.53 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5671.37 | 9197.19 | 2888.21 | 3275.23 | 4621.40 | 295.54 | 电子行业周报：美股 AI 算力股价连创新高，持续看好 AI 产业投资机遇 房地产行业 2025 年 7 月投资策略：基本面持续低迷，博弈窗口开启 电新行业快评:电力设备新能源 ...

相关研究报告 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 《策略周报》20250629 《1-5 月工企利润数据点评》20250629 《稳定币、"影子联储主席"与避险资产》 20250629 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 证券分析师：高天然 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年中期策略报告 多重角力下的突围选择 在科技重估、关税冲击、政策储备 ...

美股上半年大跌大涨，下半年或将强势开局但能否持久？特朗普："不延期 将给各国指定税率"，高盛 提醒美股财报季将受关税考验。 ①美股上半年大跌大涨 下半年或将强势开局但能否持久？ 美股隔夜收高，纳指与标普指数再创新高。在经历诸多逆风后，美股三大股指在6月和上半年均录得涨 幅。7月通常是美股的强劲月份，但分析师提醒投资者注意宏观经济风险。一方面，"大而美"法案目前 进入关键投票阶段，但前景不明，特朗普希望在7月4日前通过法案，该法案虽然有利于经济长期增长， 但短期可能因增加赤字支出、提高债务上限等对市场产生负面影响。另一方面，7月9日"关税暂缓期"到 期，关税问题将重新成为焦点，可能给美国经济、通胀和企业带来压力。此外，7月中旬开启的美股财 报季也至关重要，"科技七巨头"预计将在7月底至8月初公布最新财报，如果业绩让投资者失望，将拖累 市场。 评论员徐广语：历史数据显示，道指、标普500和纳指在7月的平均涨幅分别为1.5%、1.7%和0.9%，该 月通常是美股表现强劲的时期。但需警惕政策与经济风险：1）如果"大而美"法案通过，美国财政部可 能需大规模发债补充账户资金。2）关于关税延期的不确定性。3）关键数据：7月 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the volatility of gold prices, with a significant drop below $3250 per ounce followed by a rebound to around $3287 per ounce by the end of the day [1][6] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also fallen, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang seeing prices drop to around 980-990 yuan per gram [4][8] - The A-share precious metals sector saw gains in response to the international gold price rebound, with notable increases in stocks like Chao Hong Ji and Zhongrun Resources, which rose over 6% [9][10] Group 2 - Gold remains one of the best-performing asset classes in the first half of the year, with a 25% increase, and has risen 80% since the beginning of 2023 [11] - Over 90% of central banks surveyed expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [11] - Predictions for future gold prices vary significantly among institutions, with optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach $6000 per ounce by 2029, while others anticipate declines below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters [11][12][13]