10日，两市股指早盘弱势下探，创业板指一度跌超2%，午后逐渐止跌，一度翻红；沪指跌幅明显收 窄。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指微跌0.02%，沪深北三市合计成交 17918亿元。 盘面上看，银行、食品饮料等板块走低，地产板块午后拉升，零售、保险、酿酒、券商等板块上扬，海 南自贸、黄金概念等活跃。 德邦证券指出，近期指数分化与板块轮动加剧，资金向科技成长与政策催化板块集中，算力硬件、消费 等板块或成为短期主线。未来1—2周或将是国内外政策密集落地期，美联储政策、国内经济工作会议、 AI技术迭代等或将成为影响市场走势和风格的关键变量，需密切跟踪事件落地节奏与市场预期差。市 场当前预期美联储12月大概率降息25BP，若落地或将提振全球风险偏好，推动外资回流A股市场的概率 增加，但需警惕若出现"鹰派降息"对流动性冲击的影响。 ...

Market Overview - On December 10, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% to 3900.50 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.29% to 13316.42 points, and the ChiNext Index slightly fell by 0.02% to 3209.00 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.78 trillion, with over 2800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - **Retail Sector**: The retail sector continued its strong performance, with stocks like Dongbai Group and Yonghui Supermarket hitting the daily limit. The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized the importance of retail in driving domestic demand and high-quality development [2] - **Hainan Sector**: The Hainan sector saw significant gains, with stocks such as Hainan Ruize and Ronow Mountain reaching the daily limit. The upcoming full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 is expected to boost the sector [3] - **Precious Metals Sector**: The precious metals sector rose, led by companies like Xiaocheng Technology. Silver prices have increased by nearly 110% this year, with significant daily gains noted [4] Institutional Insights - **China Bank Securities**: The firm anticipates an early start to the "spring excitement" market, supported by funds and policies, with expectations of a bull market continuing into next year [5] - **Cinda Securities**: The firm suggests December may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, although the timing for a market rally may not be immediate due to current high valuations [6] - **CITIC Securities**: The firm notes that before any unexpected changes in domestic demand, market fluctuations and structural opportunities will be the norm, with a focus on resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a downward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.72%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.56%, and ChiNext Index down 1.23% at midday [3][4]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 118.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [5]. Sector Performance - The computing hardware industry chain experienced a decline, particularly in server and storage sectors, while sectors such as photovoltaic, ultra-hard materials, AI applications, and consumer electronics also saw significant drops [4]. - Conversely, sectors like Hainan Free Trade Zone, duty-free shopping, lithium mining, and retail concepts performed well, with Hainan Free Trade Zone rising by 3.51% [5]. Notable Stocks - Precious metals stocks surged, with companies like Xiaocheng Technology rising over 9%, and Hunan Silver, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining also seeing gains [6]. - Small metal stocks strengthened, with Yunnan Zhenye increasing over 6% [7]. - In the Hong Kong market, lithium battery stocks showed strength, with Ganfeng Lithium up 5.17% and Tianqi Lithium up 3.31% [9]. Trading Dynamics - The market saw a significant drop in trading volume, with the total exceeding 5 trillion yuan but down over 200 billion yuan compared to the same time the previous day [12]. - The A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite down 0.21%, Shenzhen Component down 0.20%, and ChiNext down 0.26% [15][16]. Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,898 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, while 793 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today [19]. - The central bank adjusted the RMB to USD exchange rate to 7.0753, an increase of 20 basis points from the previous day [20].

Research Views - The stock index market showed volatility and differentiation throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. Over 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 1.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term [1]. - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year Treasury bond futures contracts rose 0.45%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.02% respectively. The market is expected to continue its narrow-range oscillating trend within the year [1][2]. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,991.6 | 3,015.0 | -23.4 | -0.78% | | IF | 4,583.2 | 4,613.2 | -30.0 | -0.65% | | IC | 7,094.4 | 7,144.0 | -49.6 | -0.69% | | IM | 7,347.8 | 7,380.4 | -32.6 | -0.44% | [3] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite 50 | 2,998.0 | 3,019.4 | -21.4 | -0.71% | | CSI 300 | 4,598.2 | 4,621.8 | -23.5 | -0.51% | | CSI 500 | 7,121.3 | 7,172.4 | -51.0 | -0.71% | | CSI 1000 | 7,380.6 | 7,423.0 | -42.5 | -0.57% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-08 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.43 | 102.41 | 0.018 | 0.02% | | TF | 105.79 | 105.75 | 0.04 | 0.04% | | T | 107.98 | 107.91 | 0.07 | 0.06% | | TL | 112.59 | 112.24 | 0.35 | 0.31% | [3] Market News - The market showed volatility and differentiation throughout the day, with the three major indices showing mixed performance. Over 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed lower, and the trading volume exceeded 1.91 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61% [4]. - The commercial spaceflight concept remained active, with stocks such as Shaanxi Huada and Aerospace Changfeng hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the Hainan Free Trade Zone sector declined, with New Dazhou A hitting the daily limit down [4]. - The computing power hardware stocks continued to be strong, with many stocks such as Dekeli and Yueling Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The Fujian sector continued to strengthen, with more than a dozen stocks such as Anji Food and Longzhou Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit [4]. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC futures contracts, as well as their respective basis trends [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of Treasury bond futures contracts, Treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates [13][15][17]. Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates, currency indices, and cross - currency exchange rates [20][21][23]

A股走低，创业板指跌超2%，深成指跌超1%，沪指跌0.61%，消费电子、算力硬件、培育钻石、存储芯片等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股 超3900只。 港股指数表现分化，恒生指数开盘微涨，恒生科技指数跌0.04%。科网股表现分化，美团、百度集团、中芯国际上涨；网易、比亚迪电子、金山 软件走弱。 9:29 商品期货开盘多数下跌，沪银主力合约涨近4%。苯乙烯、氧化铝跌超2%，纯碱、燃料油、甲醇、原油、玻璃、沪镍、沪铜跌超1%。 国债期货低开高走，30年期主力合约涨0.12%，10年期主力合约涨0.01%，5年期主力合约涨0.01%，2年期主力合约涨0.01%。 9:50 国债期货全线转涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL | CFFEX30年期国债期1 \/V | | 112.58 | 0.13 | 0.12% | | 1 | CFFEX10年期国债期1 \/v | | 107.980 | 0.010 | 0.01% | | IF | CFFEX5年期国债期货（γν | | 105.775 | ...

Group 1: Nvidia and AI Chip Market - The U.S. government has allowed Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to China, with a 25% revenue share to be paid to the U.S. [2] - The H200 chip, while not as powerful as Nvidia's latest Blackwell chip, offers significant performance improvements over the older H20 chip and is still attractive to Chinese tech companies [2][3] - The easing of chip export restrictions may be temporary, and the growing domestic AI chip industry in China could limit Nvidia's bargaining power in the market [3] Group 2: Chongqing Urban Development - Chongqing plans to develop two major urban sub-centers, Wanxian and Yongchuan, to alleviate pressure on the main urban area and promote balanced regional development [4][5] - The main urban area is projected to account for 78.2% of the city's GDP and 68.4% of its population by 2024, highlighting the need for a more distributed urban structure [4] Group 3: Automotive Market Trends - In November, retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China grew by 4.2% year-on-year, while overall passenger car sales fell by 8.1% [6][7] - The automotive market is expected to face significant growth pressures in 2026, particularly for the NEV sector, as companies struggle with profitability and cash flow [7] Group 4: Mu Xi Co., Ltd. IPO Results - Mu Xi Co., Ltd. had a low IPO subscription rate of 0.03%, despite a significant initial surge in stock price [8] - The company aims to focus on the cloud and edge computing markets, with funds raised from the IPO allocated for the development of its next-generation AI chips [8][9] Group 5: Pop Mart's Market Performance - Pop Mart's market value has decreased by over 180 billion HKD, with stock prices dropping significantly from their peak [10][11] - The company is expanding production capacity to meet demand but faces challenges in maintaining product scarcity, which is crucial for its brand appeal [11] Group 6: Paramount's Acquisition Offer - Paramount has made a cash offer of 108.4 billion USD to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, aiming to strengthen its media portfolio [12][13] - This acquisition bid comes amid a competitive landscape for media assets, with Paramount seeking to bypass existing agreements between Netflix and Warner Bros. [12][13] Group 7: Walmart's Stock Exchange Move - Walmart has moved its listing from the New York Stock Exchange to NASDAQ, aiming to attract more investment by aligning with technology-focused indices [14][15] - The company is increasingly integrating technology into its operations, although it still primarily derives revenue from retail [14][15] Group 8: Market Overview - The stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.37% amid a general decline in most sectors [16][17] - Despite some sectors showing resilience, the overall market sentiment remains low, indicating a period of adjustment and consolidation [17]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 09 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 A 股小幅调整，商品跌多涨少 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 9 日周二，A 股市场小幅缩量调整；国债期货市场回暖；商品 期货普遍下跌，工业品延续承压。 一、市场行情分析 图 1：主要行业板块涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，德邦研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1）股票市场：缩量分化调整，跌多涨少 缩量分化调整，跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现分化格局，主要指数涨跌互现，科 技成长板块逆势走强，周期与地产链深度调整。上证指数低开后震荡下行，收盘报 3909.52 点，下跌 0.37%；深证成指报 13277.36 点，跌 0.39%；创业板指表现亮 眼 ...

Macro Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the 2025 book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, with a total competitive bidding face value of 104.5 billion yuan [1] Company Dynamics - HSBC China has successfully assisted an overseas asset management institution in completing the first QFI commodity futures transaction using government bonds as collateral in the domestic market [5] - China Life announced that its total premium exceeded 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025, with the audited total premium data to be disclosed in the annual report [6] - Alibaba has established the Qianwen C-end business group, aiming to develop Qianwen into a super app and an omnipresent AI assistant [11] - Xiaomi Group repurchased 7.2 million shares at a cost of approximately 297 million Hong Kong dollars [12] - Xiamen Airport is planning to acquire 100% equity of Zhaoxiang Technology to address uncertainties in its main airport operations following the planned closure of Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport [13] - LONGi Green Energy has signed a cooperation agreement with EDF Power Solutions for the Longfield photovoltaic project in the UK, supplying 404MW high-efficiency BC components [14] - Tianyuan Dike announced that its chairman, Chen You, has been placed under detention, but the company's operations remain normal and unaffected [15] Market Data - The ChiNext Index rose by 0.61%, with the computing hardware sector showing strong performance, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experienced slight declines [8] - The financing balance of the two markets increased by 18.57 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 1,254.47 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 1,220.71 billion yuan [9] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell by 1.29%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.9%, particularly affected by declines in the biopharmaceutical and semiconductor sectors [10]

★ 宏观动态 ★ 财政部拟发行2025年记账式附息（二十四期）国债，竞争性招标面值总额1045亿元 财政部拟发行2025年记账式附息（二十四期）国债。本期国债为2年期固定利率附息债。本期国债竞争性招标 面值总额1045亿元，进行甲类成员追加投标。本期国债票面利率通过竞争性招标确定。本期国债自2025年12月 15日开始计息，每年支付利息，付息日为每年12月15日（节假日顺延，下同），2027年12月15日偿还本金并支 付最后一次利息。招标时间为2025年12月12日上午10:35至11:35。 高市早苗就自民党支部违规收受捐款道歉 据央视新闻，当地时间12月9日，日本首相、自民党总裁高市早苗表示，就自己担任代表的自民党支部违规收 受来自企业的捐款一事表示道歉。 日本神户学院大学教授上脇博之4日向检察机关控告，高市早苗涉嫌违规收受企业的政治捐款。根据控告文 件，高市担任代表的"自民党奈良县第2选举区支部"2024年从东京都一家企业处收受了1000万日元捐款（约合 45万元人民币）。但根据日本《政治资金规正法》，该企业按其注册资本规模全年可捐款上限为750万日元。 受到控告的包括高市本人、其所属支部的会计负责人以 ...

截至收盘，创业板成长指数上涨1.6%，创业板指数上涨0.6%，创业板中盘200指数下跌0.5%，盘面上，元件、CPO、PCB等算力硬件概念表现强势，胜宏科 技涨超10%，中际旭创涨超6%，新易盛涨超3%，天孚通信涨超1%、再创历史新高。 每日经济新闻 ...