他们补充说，"虽然股市调整在历史上并不罕见，但美元同时遭抛售却很罕见，尤其是在股市迅速重新 定价时。" 特朗普不断升级的贸易战动摇了全球金融市场，并引发了对世界最大经济体发展轨迹的担忧，在此背景 下，美国股市和美元近期均出现动荡。美联储上周下调了经济增长预测，并上调了通胀预期，而关税是 主要因素。 今年之前，由于市场预期美国经济将继续以快于竞争对手的速度增长，美国股市一直主导着全球市场。 FactSet数据显示，2023年至2024年，MSCI美国股票指数飙升54%，而MSCI除美国外全球发达市场股票 指数以美元计价仅上涨17%。 去年11月特朗普赢得选举后，美股进一步飙升，而美元则因押注亲商政策将提振经济增长，而关税最终 将被证明比特朗普当选总统时威胁的更为温和而上涨。但自特朗普1月就职以来，这些押注迅速瓦解， 特朗普对包括墨西哥、加拿大在内的主要贸易伙伴的进口商品征收高额关税，并威胁要进一步征收关 税，这促使华尔街银行质疑美国资产的优异表现还能持续多久。 华尔街纷纷质疑，现在押注美国恐非"明智之举"！ 近几周，由于特朗普关税带来的影响，以及对经济前景和地缘政治的不确定性，美元和股市出现异常持 久且深度的双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in global capital markets driven by two unexpected narrative shifts: the breakthrough of DeepSeek, which reshapes perceptions of Chinese innovation, and the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative under Trump's governance, prompting a reassessment of global geopolitical economics [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Asset Revaluation - Since the beginning of the year, there has been little change in global economic fundamentals, but capital markets have experienced significant shifts, with Chinese stocks outperforming and the US dollar declining [3][4]. - As of March 14, the Hang Seng Tech Index, representing Chinese tech stocks, surged by 31.6%, leading global asset performance, while the Nasdaq index, which had previously led for three years, fell by 10% [3][4]. - The reversal in asset performance is attributed to the two narrative changes: the DeepSeek breakthrough and the challenges to the "American exceptionalism" narrative [3][4]. Group 2: Narrative Evolution and Its Impact - The article outlines the concept of narrative economics, emphasizing that successful narratives require elements such as personal relevance, repetition, narrative constellations, and self-reinforcement [5][6]. - DeepSeek exemplifies a successful narrative that has rapidly gained traction due to its low cost, high performance, and open-source advantages, symbolizing a break from Western technological monopolies [7][8]. - The geopolitical narrative has shifted since Trump's election, with initial optimism giving way to concerns over tariffs and immigration policies, leading to increased uncertainty in US economic policy [9][10]. Group 3: Capital Flow Dynamics - Over the past three years, global capital flows have been heavily influenced by the old narratives surrounding China and the US, with a notable outflow of foreign capital from China since 2022 [16][18]. - The share of foreign capital in China's A-share market has decreased from 10% in 2021 to approximately 7.5% currently, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [16][17]. - In contrast, the US market has seen significant inflows, totaling around $950 billion since 2022, driven by the popularity of the AI narrative [18][19]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The article posits that the current narrative changes may still be in their early stages, with potential for further asset revaluation and capital flow adjustments depending on the interaction between narratives and fundamentals [21][22]. - It outlines three potential phases for the evolution of the Chinese AI narrative: narrative strengthening, narrative realization, and narrative upgrading, each with corresponding implications for asset revaluation and capital flows [23][24][25]. - The company emphasizes the need for timely policy interventions to support economic recovery and investor confidence, particularly in real estate, local finance, and consumption [28].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in global investor focus from the US technology sector to other areas, as signs of economic weakness emerge in the US, reminiscent of the early 2000s tech bubble [1][9][14] - In China, consumer sentiment is improving due to a recovery in real estate sales and optimistic income and employment expectations, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing and stock markets [2][23][27] - The report notes that the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and European markets is increasing, indicating a broader search for investment opportunities outside the US [1][19][22] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment themes, including a recovery in cyclical consumer sectors, resilience in non-ferrous metals, and opportunities in capital goods benefiting from fiscal expansion in China and Europe [4][47] - It emphasizes the potential for Chinese companies in the consumer sector to adapt to new market dynamics, with an increasing proportion of firms showing revenue growth surpassing retail sales growth [2][31][32] - The report discusses the geopolitical landscape, particularly the potential for reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine, which may benefit Chinese firms with strong overseas infrastructure capabilities [41][43][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline of the US dollar index, which has fallen to around 103, indicating a potential end to its "epic rise" and suggesting that a turning point may have been reached in the first quarter of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Index and Global Impact - The dollar index's fluctuations are a result of international balance of payments rather than a cause, with recent trends showing a return of global funds to the US post-pandemic, supported by interest rate arbitrage and AI narratives [2]. - The article highlights that the dollar's decline may be nearing its end, with 100 being a strong support level, and warns of a potential short-term rebound [3]. Group 2: European Fiscal Awakening - The narrative of Europe's "awakening" provides a new perspective on global capital flows, but the actual implementation of increased defense spending and fiscal expansion in Europe remains uncertain [2][4]. - The proposed establishment of a €500 billion infrastructure fund in Germany and changes to fiscal constraints could signify a shift away from austerity, marking a potential end to the era of fiscal tightening in the EU [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Repricing - Current pricing indicates that the 10-year German bond yield above 2.8% is reasonable, with expectations of a return to expansion in European manufacturing [4]. - The article notes that the market has been adjusting its expectations for EU and German growth rates, particularly in light of unexpected developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The article identifies significant risks for European countries with high debt levels, such as France, Italy, and Spain, as they face increased defense spending without a unified fiscal framework [8][12]. - The lack of a strong central authority in the EU complicates fiscal decisions, with potential obstacles arising from differing national interests and the need for unanimous agreement among member states [9][10]. Group 5: Scenarios for Future Developments - Three potential scenarios for addressing the risks associated with increased defense spending are outlined: the European Central Bank initiating bond purchases, the establishment of a unified bond tool by the EU, or the failure of the defense spending plan due to lack of parliamentary support [13].

Group 1: Economic Context - The "American exceptionalism" narrative is being challenged as recent interest rate hikes have begun to tighten financial conditions, prompting market reflections on the implications of these changes[1] - The current liquidity environment in the U.S. remains relatively loose despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening cycle, which saw a cumulative increase of 525 basis points from March 2022 to July 2023[2] Group 2: Household and Corporate Sector Analysis - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income for households is at 11.3%, slightly lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024[1] - In the corporate sector, the OAS spread on credit bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, reflecting a historically loose credit environment and improved debt servicing metrics[2] Group 3: Upcoming Debt Maturities - A significant challenge is anticipated in Q2 2025, with over $600 billion in corporate debt maturing, marking a 70% increase compared to the average maturity in the second half of 2024[4] - The average financing cost for these maturing debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing at current rates (approximately 5.5%) would increase financial costs by 190 basis points[4] Group 4: Liquidity Risks and Market Implications - The liquidity environment is expected to tighten as the Fed continues its balance sheet reduction, with the overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) significantly lower than in previous years[6] - Historical patterns suggest that credit spreads may widen significantly following the end of the current tightening cycle, with a notable risk of increased financing costs exceeding 200 basis points this year[6]

Core Viewpoint - The main theme of global asset allocation in the post-pandemic era is the "American exceptionalism," characterized by a lack of significant financial tightening despite the highest interest rate hike cycle since the 1970s, leading to questions about the real impact of these rate hikes on the economy and corporate operations [1][2]. Summary by Sections Resident Sector - The ratio of mortgage payments to disposable income is currently at 11.3%, lower than the 11.7% level at the end of 2019, indicating strong consumer spending from 2022 to 2024 [2]. Corporate Sector - The credit spread of corporate bonds has been declining since the second half of 2022, remaining at historical lows, which facilitates easy corporate financing. Profit growth has accelerated compared to pre-pandemic levels, and debt repayment metrics have improved [2][3]. Liquidity Environment - The liquidity premium in the U.S. has not reached extreme levels, indicating a generally loose liquidity environment. A significant risk event occurred in March 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) incident, but it was quickly addressed by the FDIC [2][3]. Debt Maturity Challenges - A significant issue arises as corporate bonds issued in 2020 will mature in large volumes by 2025, forcing companies to either refinance at higher costs or use cash reserves, which may lead to reduced capital expenditures [4][5]. Upcoming Liquidity Tightening - The second quarter of 2025 will see a historical peak in corporate debt maturities, with over $600 billion due, representing a 70% increase compared to the average for the second half of 2024. The average financing cost for these debts is estimated at 3.6%, while refinancing could increase costs by 190 basis points [5][6]. Potential Credit Spread Increase - The current liquidity environment is relatively fragile, and if it coincides with the debt maturity peak, there is a risk of a rapid increase in credit spreads. Historical data suggests that peaks in corporate bond spreads typically lag the last rate hike by about 24 months [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The liquidity buffer provided by the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) has significantly decreased, and the ongoing balance sheet reduction (QT) has led to a noticeable reduction in excess reserves within the banking system [7][8]. Debt Ceiling and Liquidity Risks - The approval of a new debt ceiling bill around mid-year could lead to a temporary tightening of liquidity. The U.S. Treasury has already utilized 70% of its "extraordinary measures" to maintain government operations, with a potential liquidity crunch expected around the "X-date" in June [8][9]. Market Expectations on QT - There are differing expectations in the market regarding the timing of the end of QT, with some Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause until the debt ceiling issue is resolved. Delays in ending QT could further pressure liquidity [9]. Overall Market Outlook - The risk of tightening liquidity in the second quarter cannot be ignored, and U.S. equities may face another round of adjustments. Recent liquidity crises, such as the SVB incident, have shown that market reactions can be swift and significant [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, highlighting recent market trends and economic indicators that suggest a shift in investor confidence towards the U.S. economy and its stock market performance [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 10, U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, marking the largest single-day decline since September 2022 [2]. - Since 2025, U.S. stocks have underperformed compared to non-U.S. indices, raising questions about the sustainability of the "American exceptionalism" narrative [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the U.S. composite PMI has cooled significantly compared to other major economies, while Europe and Japan show signs of recovery [3]. - Despite concerns, the U.S. economy is not in a state of true recession, as household balance sheets remain healthy and corporate cash flows are strong [4]. Group 3: Technological and Geopolitical Factors - The dominance of U.S. technology, particularly in AI, is being challenged by new entrants like DeepSeek, which could lead to a reevaluation of global tech assets [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating tariffs are creating additional challenges for U.S. companies [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investors may need to reassess the "American exceptionalism" narrative and adjust their regional allocation strategies, which may take time [5]. - For domestic markets, external factors are not the sole determinants; ongoing policies to stabilize the stock and real estate markets are crucial for addressing economic slowdowns [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between Chinese and American assets, highlighting the potential for A-shares to perform independently amid a challenging U.S. market environment [13][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - A-shares in the TMT sector have seen trading volume exceed 40% for the first time in five years, mirroring trends in the U.S. tech sector [3]. - The divergence between AH technology stocks and U.S. tech stocks has widened, with the negative correlation between the ChiNext 50 and Nasdaq 100 reaching -0.78 [13]. - Major foreign banks have shifted their outlook to bullish on Chinese stocks and technology [5]. Group 2: U.S. Market Challenges - The U.S. market is experiencing a confidence crisis, with significant layoffs announced, totaling 220,000 since the beginning of the year, the highest since 2009 [7]. - The GDPNow model predicts a -2.8% growth rate for the U.S. in Q1 2025, indicating downward pressure on the U.S. economy [9]. - The MAG7 index has seen a decline of 15.7% over 54 trading days, surpassing previous adjustment periods in both duration and magnitude [22]. Group 3: Implications for A-shares - A-shares may attract global capital if their fundamentals significantly outperform those of U.S. stocks [10]. - The potential for A-share valuation increases exists if the Chinese economy shows signs of recovery while the U.S. economy remains stagnant [26]. - The narrative of a "soft landing" in the U.S. could be beneficial for AH assets, with ongoing developments in AI and robotics sectors providing investment opportunities [35][36]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The real estate sector in China has shown mixed signals, with a cumulative year-on-year increase in transaction volume of 2.25% as of March 8 [38]. - The automotive market has seen a 26% year-on-year increase in retail sales for February, with significant growth in the new energy vehicle segment [39]. - In the steel industry, the average daily production has increased by 12.96% compared to mid-February, indicating a recovery in demand [40]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February stands at 50.30, indicating stability in the manufacturing sector [46]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for February is reported at 50.2, reflecting a slight improvement from the previous month [49]. - The recent MLF injection by the People's Bank of China totaled 300 billion yuan, maintaining stable monetary policy [50].

Core Viewpoint - The current market is fragile, and stock returns are likely to face ongoing challenges, with a potential for a prolonged bear market rather than a sharp financial crisis [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The absence of a clear financial crisis means the market will not experience a rapid sell-off, leading to a slow and painful decline that could last for years, reminiscent of the post-dot-com bubble period [2][3]. - Consumer pressure is increasing as the "American exceptionalism" narrative fades, contributing to market volatility [2][4]. - Credit tightening, estimated at around 20%, typically signals an economic recession, but without a crisis, there is no forced deleveraging to create a sustainable market bottom [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Consumer confidence is declining, and discretionary spending is decreasing due to persistent inflation in essentials like food, energy, and housing, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [4][5]. - Global capital is withdrawing from the U.S., tightening domestic liquidity and increasing volatility [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Risks - Geopolitical risks, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and changes in fiscal policy, including increased defense spending in Europe, are adding to market uncertainty [5][6]. - Market expectations regarding Federal Reserve rate cuts may be misaligned, with potential cuts needing to be deeper than currently anticipated, by 20-50 basis points [5][6]. Group 4: Trading Dynamics - Hedge funds are experiencing the highest level of deleveraging since 2008, exacerbating liquidity-driven volatility [7][8]. - Key technical levels are collapsing, turning previous support into resistance, which increases the risk of further declines [9][10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - In this market environment, patience and tactical positioning are essential, as it is not a time for bottom-fishing but rather for cautious navigation [15][17]. - Suggested strategies include going long on MDAX stocks, shorting bond substitutes, and investing in gold while shorting the U.S. dollar [18].

彻底挡不住了！ 今天，恒生指数再创新高，恒生科技指数一度飙涨5%。一众与之相关联的ETF彻底沸腾，南方两倍做多恒生 科技ETF一度暴涨10%，在内地上市的两大恒生互联网ETF双双大涨近8%。与此同时，A股市场亦在港股的 带动之下再次爆发。 与此同时，华尔街传来大消息：美国市场正发生重大转变。理柏的数据显示，自去年11月特朗普赢得大选以 来，中国主题基金的资金几乎不间断地流出，但这种现象在2月初出现逆转，自此以后流入了约 30亿美元。一 场历史性的全球贸易战、欧洲拟出台的1.2万亿美元财政刺激计划以及中国崛起成为科技竞赛领头羊，正在颠 覆全球资金的认知，一些活跃资本可能正在撤出美国，转战中欧。 股市集体爆发 市场似乎已经从特朗普关税威胁和美股杀跌当中恢复过来，今天恒生指数大涨近700点，并创出阶段新高。恒 生科技指数再度暴涨近5%。ETF集体沸腾，南方两倍做多恒生科技ETF大涨近10%；辉立香港新股大涨近 6.5%，内地上市的两大恒生互联网ETF双双大涨近8%。 另一方面，1月底，一种此前不为人知的低成本中国人工智能模型突然出现，使得华尔街在人工智能军备竞赛 中的押注受到严重挑战。DeepSeek的出现不仅打破 ...