Core Viewpoint - The volatility of gold has surpassed that of Bitcoin, marking a significant shift in market dynamics, as gold is traditionally viewed as a stable safe-haven asset while Bitcoin is known for its extreme volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold's 30-day volatility indicator has surged to over 44%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, exceeding Bitcoin's volatility of approximately 39% [1]. - The recent spike in gold volatility reflects a broader market trend where traditional safe-haven assets respond more rapidly to macroeconomic risk changes compared to riskier assets like Bitcoin [2]. - The last time gold's volatility exceeded Bitcoin's was in May 2025, during a period of heightened trade tensions [3]. Group 2: Price Movements - Gold prices experienced a dramatic decline, with a drop of nearly 10% on a recent Monday, falling to around $4,400 per ounce from a peak close to $5,600 [6]. - Despite the recent volatility, gold prices have increased by approximately 66% over the past 12 months, while Bitcoin has decreased by 21% [8]. - Analysts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Bank of America predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and private investors [8][10]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Retail investors in Asia have shown increased interest in purchasing physical gold, indicating a trend of "buying the dip" rather than panic selling [9]. - The macroeconomic drivers supporting the rise in gold and physical assets remain robust, with concerns over U.S. debt and currency depreciation continuing to fuel demand [9][10]. - Despite the recent price corrections, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, as the fundamental demand from central banks and retail investors is expected to persist [10].

Group 1 - Retail investors are showing increased enthusiasm for purchasing physical gold despite a more than 20% pullback from last week's historical highs [1][6] - The demand for physical gold has surged, leading to a rare crowd at the gold trading area of UOB in Singapore, with some products sold out due to high customer demand [2] - The recent sell-off in gold prices was triggered by institutional traders closing their long positions, contrasting with retail investors who view the price drop as a buying opportunity [6] Group 2 - The long-term bullish sentiment for gold remains intact, driven by ongoing policy uncertainty from the Trump administration and the search for assets that hedge against currency devaluation and sovereign bond risks [1][6] - Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its long-term gold price target of $6,000 per ounce, emphasizing that the core factors driving the recent gold price increase have not changed [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 调查：金价过山车！暴涨暴跌后你敢加仓吗？ 文章来源：金十数据 对于被众多投资者视作避险工具的黄金和白银而言，其价格暴跌的速度与规模令人心惊。 人们的第一反应往往是追问问题出在哪里——但这恰恰偏离了核心。此次抛售带来的真正启示，无关价 格走向或估值高低，而在于流动性层面，以及当海量资金试图同时撤离同一类"避险"交易时，市场会发 生何种连锁反应。 上周五，美联储的激烈批评者凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）被特朗普提名执掌美国央行，消息公布后， 黄金暴跌9%，白银重挫逾27%。这一走势表明，此次下跌绝非单纯的市场情绪转向，而是全球流动性 的突然收缩，且这一收缩直接传导至了被普遍视为实体价值储备的资产领域。 这并非一次基本面冲击：通胀数据并未突然变脸，政策预期也未在一夜之间反转。真正被打破的，是市 场的一个固有假设——那些被广泛认定为防御性的资产，在市场承压时仍能保持流动性。 当避险资产沦为拥挤的撤离通道 黄金和白银早已成为投资者大举持有的对冲工具，而这种高持仓状态营造出了一种安全假象。这种假象 的产生，并非因为其价格不会下跌，而是投资者认定其流动 ...

市场得偿所愿。 美国总统唐纳德・特朗普提名凯文・沃什出任美联储主席，投资者松了一口气。沃什曾于2006年至2011 年任职美联储，历经全球金融危机时期，市场认可其央行工作经验，且认为他不会一味屈从特朗普的意 愿，紧张情绪得以缓解。 美国Treasury Partners首席投资官Richard Saperstein表示："凯文・沃什获美联储主席提名，正是市场所 期盼的结果。他行事稳健，在业内知名度高，外界预期他会维护央行独立性，这对市场而言至关重 要。" 特朗普提名消息公布后美元走强，凸显市场认可沃什的公信力及预期中的独立性。 但风险资产应声下跌，周五美股主要指数受科技股走弱拖累收跌。 亚洲市场同样承压严重，韩国综合股价指数暴跌超5%，触发临时停盘；香港恒生指数下跌近3%，日经 225指数回落约1%。 油价同步走低，国际基准布伦特原油下跌5.3%，美国原油下跌5.5%。不过此次油价波动更多源于特朗 普周六向记者表示伊朗正与美方"认真谈判"，缓解了市场对原油供应中断的担忧。 展望下周，科技巨头谷歌母公司字母表与亚马逊将分别于周三、周四发布财报，投资者期待强劲业绩能 扭转当前市场避险情绪。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 ...

2026.02. 02 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经记者表示，黄金本质上属于避险资产，然而任何资产价格出现大幅波动时，其风险属性将随之显现，在经历近期 急剧下跌行情后，预计短期价格波动或将延续。此次回落的重要支撑位置大致位于4300美元/盎司至4500美元/盎司区间，投资者当前不宜急于抄底。从 中线维度观察，黄金向上趋势仍未发生根本性改变，此次价格大幅回落并未扭转基本面支撑因素，包括美元汇率持续维持弱势、国际市场对美国国债及 美元资产信赖度下降，以及全球利率环境维持下行态势，这些因素均继续对黄金价格构成有力支撑，等行情稳定后，黄金ETF跟踪金价走势，相比金矿 股而言是更稳健的选择。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，上周五晚间国际金银价格出现大幅下挫，这一走势可能标志着剧烈波动行情的开端，意味着短期内市场尚未迎来中长线 资金买入的理想时机。回顾此轮上涨行情末段，主要驱动因素在于国际黄金、白银现货市场出现流动性枯竭迹象，以及实物金银交割的紧迫性日益凸 显，这吸引了大量短期热钱进行投机性买入，部分持有结构性产品的投资机构被迫补仓，进一步推升贵金属价格至历史高位。然而，由上述因素支撑的 上涨逻辑基础较为脆弱，市场趋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, with London spot gold dropping over $1000 per ounce from its January 29 high, indicates a period of high volatility, and experts suggest that investors should refrain from bottom-fishing until market fluctuations stabilize [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that gold will experience substantial short-term fluctuations, and it is advisable for investors to wait for reduced volatility before considering investments in gold ETFs, which are viewed as more stable compared to gold mining stocks [1][4][5]. - The important support level for gold prices is estimated to be between $4300 and $4500 per ounce, and the fundamental factors supporting gold prices, such as a weak dollar and declining trust in U.S. Treasury and dollar assets, remain intact [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on gold ETFs as a more reliable option compared to gold mining stocks, especially in the current environment of extreme volatility where gold is exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset [3][7]. - The upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman may lead to shifts in monetary policy that could impact gold pricing and long-term asset allocation strategies [3][7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions suggest that gold prices may fluctuate around a central point of $5000 per ounce, with potential movements within a $1000 range, driven primarily by ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [6].

一位广州私募基金经理认为，黄金传统上被视为重要避险资产，但在当前极端波动行情下已经有风险资 产特征，中长期投资逻辑依然存在，等波动幅度降低后，建议投资者优先考虑配置稳健型黄金ETF产 品，而非经营状况及业绩表现难以准确预测的金矿类股票。此外，另一风险是美联储候任主席凯文·沃 什将于2025年5月正式就职，作为美国总统特朗普提名的人选，其未来货币政策取向目前并不明确，如 果未来美联储主要政策目标转向修复美元国际信用，可能采取的具体措施包括实施降息及缩表操作，这 将促使投资者重新审视黄金的定价属性及中长期资产配置逻辑。 黄金大幅下跌，伦敦现货金距离1月29日高点跌幅一度超过1000美元/盎司，经历了上下近20%的大幅波 动后，接下来行情将会如何走？ （文章来源：第一财经） 业内人士认为，黄金短期内将会大幅震荡，建议投资者先不要急于抄底，等市场波动幅度降低后，黄金 ETF等产品将会比金矿股更加稳健，目前看黄金中长期的投资逻辑依然维持，但也要关注美联储主席换 人之后，如何配合总统特朗普的政策变化。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，上周五晚间国际金银价格出现大幅下挫，这一走势可能标志着剧烈波动 行情的开端，意味着短期内市场 ...

其中，中国实物黄金投资需求的表现更是可圈可点。2025年全年，中国投资者累计购入432吨金条金币，较 2024年增长28%，创下年度历史新高。数据背后，反映出中国投资者对黄金保值增值功能的深刻认知和高度 认可。 黄金自古以来就是财富和地位的象征，在全球范围内被广泛认可，无论是古代作为货币储备，还是现代用于 珠宝首饰，都承载着"富贵、吉祥"的文化寓意。并且在全球经济形势复杂多变的背景下，黄金成为避险资产 和保值增值工具。 （图片来源：摄图网） 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创历史 新高。其中，投资需求成为当之无愧的主力军，增至2175吨的里程碑水平，2025年黄金总需求刷新历史纪录 的主要驱动力。 从投资需求的结构来看，《报告》显示，全球范围内，寻求避险和资产多元化的投资者大量涌入黄金ETF， 全年净增801吨。同时，实物黄金投资需求也保持强劲增长态势，全球金条和金币需求达到1374吨。 近几年，黄金价格一路高涨，自2015-2019年均值水平起算，2025年黄金均价预计将高出约150%，这无疑进 一步激发了中国投资者的热情。 中国在全球黄金市 ...

1月30日，黄金价格迎来40年一遇的暴跌，数以万亿计的资产蒸发。 一家名为"杰我睿"的黄金料商，爆雷了。 截至2026年1月26日下午3时，媒体披露的投资者未结清余额合计达133.92亿元；而据坊间自发统计，截至2026年1月29日22时，涉事金额已高达187亿元。 在史无前例的黄金牛市中，无数普通人似乎正在成为被割的散户。 关于黄金的坏消息，是接二连三的。 深圳的水贝市场，全国最大的黄金珠宝批发市场，最近批量涌入维权的消费者。 如果不是年末的这次爆雷，"杰我睿"无非是水贝无数黄金料商中寂寂无名的一家。在规模上，他们不是水贝的头部，在知名度上，更是远远逊色于连锁金 店。 所谓料商，就是在水贝市场买卖黄金原料的商家。他们从市场和个人那里收购黄金，将其提纯、加工成标准黄金出售给中小商家。 水贝成千上万个珠宝小作坊，没有资格直接从银行拿货，必须每天向料商"借金"或"买料"来维持生产。 通常情况下，料商的盈利模式就是通过流通环节赚手续费、点差费。 杰我睿，就是一家深耕水贝多年的黄金料商，为 水贝的中小珠宝商提供黄金原材料批发。 不过跟同行不一样的是，杰我睿很快就开始做起了普通消费者的生意。 1月31日，深圳罗湖区工作 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a significant rotation of themes, shifting from technology stocks to a focus on heavyweight stocks, with a notable reduction in the profitability effect [2][13] - The market is in a cooling cycle, with a decrease in trading volume and a prevailing cautious sentiment among investors as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to potential seasonal tightening of market liquidity [2][13] - The core logic supporting the market's medium-term positive outlook remains unchanged, driven by favorable domestic policies and capital [2][13] Group 2 - The report forecasts an increase in market volatility and a trend towards balanced styles in 2026, emphasizing the importance of following the "14th Five-Year Plan" and subsequent policy directions [3][13] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with actual performance or future earnings support, including technology growth stocks, cyclical commodities, domestic consumption, dividend stocks, and sectors with improving economic conditions [3][13] - The semiconductor sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by digital transformation and geopolitical factors, while cautioning against purely speculative stocks lacking performance support [10][12] Group 3 - The agricultural and tourism sectors are noted for their active performance, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and shifting the macro policy focus towards consumer-driven growth [8][12] - The report identifies structural investment opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in areas aligned with demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [8][12] - The report also discusses the performance of the precious metals sector, which has seen significant price increases due to various factors, including monetary policy shifts and geopolitical tensions, but advises against chasing prices after recent gains [11][12]