5月21日，上证指数全天高位窄幅震荡；深证成指、创业板指早盘震荡上扬，随后有所回落，之后再度上扬，午后冲高回 落。科创50指数早盘探底回升，午后震荡回落。截至收盘，上证指数报3387.57点，涨0.21%，成交额4659.57亿元；深证成 指报10294.22点，涨0.44%，成交额7075.21亿元；创业板指报2065.39点，涨0.83%，成交额3160.52亿元；科创50指数报 995.49点，跌0.22%，成交额173.83亿元。沪深两市合计成交11734.78亿元，成交额较上一交易日增加37.76亿元。 重组蛋白、黄金等概念走强 *ST绿康连收6个涨停板 盘面上来看，行业板块、概念跌多涨少。其中，煤炭、贵金属、银行、电力设备、医药生物等行业涨幅靠前；重组蛋白、 黄金、噪音防治、供销社、固态电池、草甘膦等概念走势活跃。美容护理、电子、传媒、机械设备、商贸零售、通信、教 育、房地产等行业跌幅居前；PEEK材料、3D玻璃、纳米银、工业母机、存储芯片、6G、宠物经济、谷子经济等概念走势 较弱。涨停个股主要集中在医药生物、电力设备、建筑装饰、化工、房地产等行业。 沪深两市主力资金净流出229.13亿元 4个行 ...

Economic Outlook - The nominal GDP growth rate in China is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with real GDP growth stabilizing at around 5%[129] - The external demand continues to be a major driver of growth, with foreign trade increasingly contributing to China's economic recovery[20] Trade and Tariff Implications - The U.S. tariff levels are expected to rise above 25% by 2025, surpassing the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act levels[85] - The potential scenarios for U.S. tariff strategies include partial tariffs, comprehensive tariffs, and forming alliances against China, which could lead to significant economic restructuring[88] AI and Economic Transformation - AI is seen as a potential new "Ford Model," driving investment and productivity, but it may also lead to reduced job demand, particularly in low-skill sectors[78] - The rapid increase in private sector investment in AI indicates a shift towards enhancing operational efficiency rather than creating new industries[73] Gold and Monetary Policy - The relationship between U.S. trade policies and gold prices suggests a potential return to mercantilist principles, impacting monetary stability and inflation[100] - Historical shifts in trade policy have consistently influenced the monetary order, with the U.S. moving from a gold standard to a credit-based system[97] Long-term Strategies - Long-term responses to the challenges posed by AI, tariffs, and gold should focus on income distribution reforms to stimulate domestic demand[108] - The restructuring of production capacity is essential to address inefficiencies and improve profitability in the face of external pressures[115]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the metal industry is expected to see steady profit growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with gold, rare earths, and copper leading the sectors, while industry valuations are low and dividend returns are improving [1] - The performance of the colored ETF and its constituent stocks, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, is positively influenced by the sentiment boost from the research report [1] - Recent US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, leading to a return to fundamentals for the colored sector, with tungsten prices rising due to quota reductions, while gold is under pressure from a decrease in safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2 - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold, rare earths, copper, and aluminum due to favorable market conditions [1] - The analysis from Huachuang Securities highlights that the reform in the public fund industry may enhance the competitiveness of niche products, indirectly benefiting the ecosystem of thematic ETFs [1] - The performance of related stocks such as Jintian Copper and Zijin Mining is expected to be influenced by the anticipated benefits from the easing of export restrictions and rising overseas prices [1]

Market Performance - US stock market showed mixed results with Nasdaq up 0.72%, S&P 500 up 0.1%, and Dow Jones down 0.21% [1] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Tesla and Nvidia rising over 4%, while Intel fell over 4% [3] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks saw significant gains, with Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 1.17% [7] - Tencent Music surged over 15%, Li Auto increased nearly 3%, and Alibaba, Baidu, and TAL Education rose close to 2% [7] Bridgewater Holdings - Bridgewater Associates reported a significant increase in holdings, buying over 5.4 million shares of Alibaba, a 21-fold increase, making it the fourth largest holding [5] - The firm also purchased 1.88 million shares of Baidu (up 956%), along with shares of Apple, Amazon, and Pinduoduo [5] Commodity Prices - International gold prices dropped significantly, with spot gold falling below $3170 per ounce, marking a decline of over 2% [8] - COMEX gold futures fell 1.91% to $3185.7 per ounce, while silver futures dropped 2.23% to $32.37 per ounce [10] - Crude oil prices also declined, with WTI June futures down 0.52% to $63.15 per barrel and Brent July futures down 0.81% to $66.09 per barrel [10]

关税休战了，为何今晚的美国CPI数据依然让人捏一把汗？商品价格提前透支，服务消费已现疲软，"特 朗普咆哮"即将返场…… 北京时间20:30，美国将公布4月CPI数据。尽管中美贸易休战（双方同意在未来90天内削减115%的关 税）已彻底重塑宏观格局，使得CPI数据的前后对比失去意义，但市场仍可能对即将公布的CPI数据做 出条件反射式反应——哪怕只是短暂波动，以及紧随其后的"特朗普咆哮"（特朗普常在关键数据公布后 发文评论）。 华尔街预计： 4月整体CPI月率将录得0.3%，高于上月的-0.1%；整体CPI年率将录得2.4%，与3月持平。 经济学家与政策制定者正密切关注反映可选消费变化的服务类别。花旗集团经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克 （Veronica Clark）和安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Hollenhorst）指出，机票和租车等旅行相关价格连续 下跌，3月的疲软数据与4月进一步回落印证了旅行需求降温的趋势。 4月核心CPI月率将录得0.3%，高于3月的0.1%。值得注意的是，核心CPI月率的预测范围异常广阔，最 高为0.6，最低为0.0%。4月核心CPI年率将录得2.4%，也与3月持平。 多数分析认为， ...

Domestic Financial Market - The US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in a joint statement where both parties committed to taking measures to modify and cancel tariffs on each other's goods by May 14, 2025 [4] - The Ministry of Commerce announced a crackdown on the smuggling and export of strategic minerals, increasing inspection and enforcement at ports [4] Industry Dynamics - The commercialization of 5G-A networks is accelerating, leading to a golden development period for smart driving and low-altitude economy, with related stocks including ZTE Corporation (000063) and China Mobile (600941) [5] - Many humanoid robot companies are experiencing a surge in orders, with Yushutech facing a labor shortage, related stocks include Huichuan Technology (300124) and Zhongkong Technology (688777) [5] - Domestic and international demand is resonating, and the defense and military industry is expected to enter a new high prosperity cycle, with related stocks including Zhong UAV (688297) and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (600760) [5] Company Focus - Jiutian Pharmaceutical (300705) received approval for the supplementary application of Ketorolac Tromethamine tablets, which are used for treating mild to moderate pain from various causes [6] - Aucma (600336) plans to establish a smart manufacturing factory in Indonesia with an annual production capacity of 500,000 refrigerators, with a total investment of approximately 360 million RMB [6] - Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (688331) achieved the primary research endpoint in the Phase III clinical study of Vidisicimab for the first-line treatment of HER2-expressing urothelial carcinoma [6] - Newland (000997) signed a deep cooperation agreement with Alibaba Cloud in Hangzhou to advance AI large model and public cloud cooperation projects [6] Market Review and Outlook - On May 12, the market opened slightly higher and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a rebound high of 3372 points, and all three major stock indices closing up, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.63% [7] - The market saw a total trading volume of 1.31 trillion RMB, an increase of 116.4 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day, with sectors like aviation, shipbuilding, components, and electrical instruments leading the gains [7] - The market sentiment has improved, with nearly 20 sectors rising over 2%, while the number of stocks hitting the daily limit down has decreased to three [7]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) increased by 1.00% [1] - The Artificial Intelligence ETF (588760) rose by 0.54% [1] - The Robotics ETF (159530) saw a gain of 0.99% [1] - The Military Industry Leading ETF (512710) experienced a slight increase of 0.16% [1] - The Gold ETF (518680) declined by 2.59% [1] Group 2 - A-share accounts can now conduct T+0 trading for Hong Kong stocks without the need for a Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]

Market Overview - The military industry sector showed strong performance, with significant activity in CPO, high-speed copper connections, photovoltaics, computing power, and AI applications, while PEEK materials, gold, and agriculture sectors weakened [1][4] - As of May 8, the A-share market saw over 3,800 stocks rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.93%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.65% [1][2] Stock Performance - Specific stocks in the military sector, such as AVIC Chengfei, Runbei Aerospace, Aerospace Changfeng, and Chengfei Integration, experienced limit-up gains [4] - Compressor concept stocks also surged, with companies like Mag Valley Technology, Xinlei Co., Jialitu, and Liande Co. hitting the upper limit [4] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in sectors such as communication equipment, cultural media, and consumer electronics, while semiconductor and internet service sectors saw net outflows [5] - Notable net inflows included Ningde Times (¥8.17 billion), New Yi Sheng (¥6.78 billion), and沃尔核材 (¥6.59 billion), while net outflows were seen in Hongbaoli (¥8.36 billion), Huasheng Tiancai (¥5.55 billion), and Changshan Beiming (¥4.86 billion) [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Construction noted that with policy support and improved liquidity, the market is stabilizing, suggesting a focus on domestic circulation and technological innovation for future strategies [7] - Shanghai Securities highlighted that the current market performance exceeds expectations, with positive sentiment and limited downside potential, attracting international capital [7] - Founder Securities mentioned a rebound in polysilicon prices, indicating potential stabilization and recovery in that sector [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The central bank's implementation of a double - cut (reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut) is in line with expectations and is a specific implementation of the Politburo meeting spirit [1]. - After the double - cut policy is implemented, the bond market yield first falls and then rises, which is a normal market reaction [1]. - Currently, there are no factors that can trigger a significant interest rate callback. The current policies are relatively mild, and there are contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals [2]. - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term, and even if an agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. - In the short term, there may be an impact of profit - taking by trading desks on short - term interest rates, but it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, it is advisable to adopt a duration strategy for active left - side layout. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals show a trend improvement [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold is not a trend reversal and may provide an opportunity [2]. 3) Summaries Based on Related Contents A. Double - cut Analysis - The double - cut announced by the central bank on May 7, 2025, is in line with expectations as the mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the Politburo meeting on April 25 increased the probability of such cuts in May - June [1]. - After the double - cut, the yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds first dropped rapidly and then rebounded, which is related to profit - taking after the good news, Sino - US negotiation news, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. B. Interest Rate Callback Risk - The current policies are relatively mild, and after the double - cut, DR007 has further dropped to around 1.6%. The contradictions between short - term shocks and long - term structural transformation in the fundamentals make it difficult to drive a significant interest rate callback [2]. C. Sino - US Negotiations - Sino - US negotiations are unlikely to reach a consensus in the short term. Even if a phased agreement is reached, the tariff situation will not be better than before April 2, 2025. The current leading style is tougher, reflecting the attitude towards tariffs. The negative impact of the negotiations will not be long - lasting [2]. D. Investment Strategies - Although short - term interest rates may be affected by trading desk profit - taking, it is still logical to be bullish in the long run. After a callback, a duration strategy for active left - side layout can be adopted. There is no need to be overly bearish on the bond market before the fundamentals improve [2]. - The short - term Sino - US negotiations will cause emotional disturbances to gold, but the central bank's gold - buying logic is still strongly supported. The recent phased callback of gold may provide an opportunity [2].

5月6日，A股三大指数集体高开。截至1 0 : 0 0，创业板指涨至1 . 4 3%。市场上，4 5 8 5只个股上 涨。 本期编辑 金珊 21君荐读 关于胖东来玉石，市监通报来了！此前被网红怼"玉石获百倍暴利" 深夜，伯克希尔大跌 雷军，职务调整！ 板块方面，黄金、稀土永磁、消费电子、服务器、CPO、算力、机器人、6G、金融科技指数 等纷纷走强。 其 中 ， 稀 土 永 磁 概 念 股 震 荡 走 高 ， 盛 和 资 源 涨 停 ， 九 菱 科 技 、 大 地 熊 、 龙 磁 科 技 、 广 晟 有 色、银河磁体、中国稀土涨超5%，中科三环、天和磁材、正海磁材等跟涨。 消息面上，截至5月1日，欧洲镝价已自4月初以来上涨两倍，达到8 5 0美元/公斤；铽价从9 6 5 美元/公斤上涨至3 0 0 0美元/公斤，累计涨幅超2 1 0%。 来源 | 财联社、Wi n d、公开信息等 SFC | 上证指数 | 北证50 深证成指 | | --- | --- | | 3297.87 | 10014.66 1355.19 +18.84 +0.57% +114.83 +1.16% +24.05 +1.81% | | 科创 ...