Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices dropped and then rebounded on Tuesday evening, reaching a high of $3380 per ounce, mainly influenced by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI and Trump's remarks about the Fed and Indian tariffs [1][3]. - With the phased conclusion of trade negotiation results, the negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been phased out. The emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken and become a slow - variable later. Attention should be paid to the negative verification of the fundamentals after large - scale implementation [6]. - With the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the reversal of the US stock market, the short - term trading of the US economic resilience may end. The market will return to the logic of the weakening US fundamentals and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, and the sentiment in the gold market will turn positive [6]. - At the global central bank annual meeting in late August, Powell's statement is expected to change. The accelerating pace of the Fed's leadership change may bring changes to the expected interest rate path next year and concerns about the Fed's independence, which is expected to increase price elasticity [6]. - The long - term bull market trend of gold remains unchanged. The continued slowdown of the US fundamentals under the tariff path and the restart of the interest rate cut cycle provide medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit builds the foundation for the long - term bull market [6]. - The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3300, 3500], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [36, 40] [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Key Information - Trump said he would significantly raise tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale purchase of Russian oil. India responded that it would take measures to safeguard its interests and criticized Trump's actions as "unjustified" [2]. - Trump said he would soon announce a short - term replacement for Fed Governor Kugler's resignation and the next Fed Chairman [2]. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's June meeting showed that some policymakers believed there was room for a rate hike once trade frictions caused by US tariffs eased [2]. - On August 5, US economic data showed that the July ISM non - manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5; the final value of the S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, slightly higher than the expected 55.2. The trade deficit in June narrowed to $60.2 billion, the smallest since September 2023 [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices were affected by the unexpected decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI, Trump's remarks about the Fed (including soon announcing a new Fed Chairman, criticizing Powell for "cutting interest rates too late") and Indian tariffs (raising tariffs on Indian goods in 24 hours, and planning new tariff measures on drugs and chips in the next week with drug tariffs possibly reaching up to 250% in stages) [1][3]. - The three factors of economic fundamentals, Fed independence, and economic and trade prospects resonated, causing gold to rebound quickly from $3350 to above $3380 [6].

新华财经上海8月5日电（葛佳明） 8月以来，黄金震荡走强，伦敦现货黄金一度突破每盎司3380美元关 口，连续三个交易日走强，累计涨幅逼近3%。 美国劳工部日前公布的数据显示，7月美国新增非农就业岗位7.3万，低于预期值11万；6月数据由此前 公布的14.7万下修至1.4万，5月数据由14.4万下修至1.9万，两月合计下修25.8万。 付晓芸称，美国劳动力市场超预期放缓，推动市场对美国经济前景担忧骤起，刺激金价在美国就业数据 发布当日上涨。 "历史上，美国非农数据出现如此大幅度的下修并非个例。从统计看，当绝对下修幅度达到约13万人或 相对下修幅度达到90%时，伦敦金在数据公布当月的最大涨幅通常可达3%~5%，个别时期可以超过 10%。"付晓芸认为，由此计算，伦敦金短线可能反弹至每盎司3400-3450美元，恰好对应近期震荡区间 上沿。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青接受新华财经采访时表示，全球冲突的环境难以逆转，美国债务 仍在持续积累，贸易冲突破坏全球供应链体系，地区性的地缘政治冲突频发，"去美元化"正在持续推 进，将持续给黄金支撑，黄金仍处在长牛行情中。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达对新华财经表示，金价高位震 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The employment market deterioration in the US may prompt the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process ahead of schedule. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, with its volatility rising but the mid - line upward trend remaining good. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold, while Trump's reforms and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price - to - earnings ratio also means increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [6]. Group 4: Content Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The significant deterioration of US non - farm employment in July and the large downward revision of the previous two months' data may lead the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process. The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler gives Trump the power to influence monetary policy. The US dollar index fell sharply, and London gold rebounded above $3350/ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/ounce and then rise again. This week, attention should be paid to China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. Mid - line Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's demand, the uncertainty of Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $3120 - $3500/ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to participate in trading with a long - position mindset and medium - low positions. Bearish traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The US Trade Representative said the tariffs may continue. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about reaching an agreement with China [18]. - US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, with a significant downward revision of 258,000 non - farm jobs in the previous two months. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in September has increased. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [18]. - Trump fired a senior official of the Labor Department after the weak employment report and accused her of manipulating data without evidence. Fed Governor Kugler resigned unexpectedly, giving Trump an earlier opportunity to influence the Fed. Trump said Fed Chairman Powell may stay in office [19]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. Eight member countries will meet again on September 7 to consider whether to lift another approximately 1.65 million barrels per day of production cuts [19]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is at a sensitive point in the Merrill Lynch investment clock, likely transitioning away from deflation in the second half of the year, which could lead to a significant rise in the A-share market [1] - The expectation is that the A-share index could surpass 4000 points if price effects materialize, driven by strong momentum in cyclical assets [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The first key industry trend is RDA logic, focusing on data assetization through blockchain technology, which is essential for ensuring the security and legality of data assets in the AI economy [2] - The second trend is the circular economy, which aims to address China's energy bottlenecks through technological innovation, particularly in converting waste plastics into alternative energy products [2] - The third trend is the industrialization of solid-state batteries, which is crucial for China's leadership in low-altitude economy and robotics, with expectations for large-scale commercialization in the next two years [3] Group 3: Global Economic Context - The U.S. faces significant risks with the dollar and treasury bond system, which may lead to a reliance on blockchain and stablecoins as a form of self-redemption [3] - The ongoing G2 strategic competition suggests that the current gold bull market could last longer and see greater gains than any previous cycle, making gold a favorable long-term investment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant decline in international gold prices, raising questions about the sustainability of the gold bull market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The marginal slowdown in U.S. economic growth suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The long-term decline in U.S. dollar credit is expected to provide favorable support for international gold prices [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - London gold prices fell below the $3,300 mark, indicating a substantial market reaction to the Fed's signals [1]

Group 1 - Fidelity International predicts gold prices may reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and central banks increasing gold reserves [1][2] - Ian Samson, a multi-asset fund manager, notes that the company remains bullish on gold, with some funds increasing their gold allocation from 5% to nearly 10% over the past year [1][2] - Gold prices have risen over 25% this year, driven by uncertainties from U.S. trade policies and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside continued central bank purchases [1][2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs shares a similar optimistic outlook on gold prices, forecasting a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce, while Citigroup expresses a more cautious stance predicting a decline [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain current interest rates, but there may be dissent among officials advocating for support of the slowing labor market [2] - Samson highlights that gold typically benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, with ongoing central bank purchases and expanding fiscal deficits enhancing gold's appeal as a hard asset [3]

Group 1 - Wall Street is becoming increasingly bullish on gold prices, with predictions that prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by the end of next year due to factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central banks increasing gold reserves [1][2] - Fidelity International's multi-asset fund manager Ian Samson noted that the firm has increased its gold holdings as prices retreated from historical highs above $3,500 per ounce, driven by a clearer path towards a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen over 26%, supported by policy uncertainty from U.S. trade actions, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and central bank purchases [1] Group 2 - Samson expressed that while the U.S. may avoid a dire tariff scenario, the Trump administration is still expected to impose significant tariffs on imports, which could lead to economic slowdown [2] - The current spot gold price is approximately $3,319 per ounce, with differing views among institutions; Goldman Sachs shares a bullish outlook similar to Fidelity, while Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate policy in the upcoming meeting, but there may be dissenting opinions advocating for rate cuts to support a slowing labor market [2] Group 3 - Gold typically benefits from a weakening dollar and lower interest rates, and global central banks are likely to continue purchasing gold amid expanding fiscal deficits, particularly in the U.S. [3] - Historical data shows that during bull markets, gold has averaged annual gains of 20%, suggesting that current price levels may not be severely overvalued [3]

Market Overview - The recent rise in US stocks has raised concerns about valuation bubbles, but strong earnings and optimism regarding US trade agreements have led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach record highs, with VIX closing below 15 [2] - Tesla shares increased by 3.5%, leading the tech giants, while Intel shares fell by 8.5% [2] - US Treasury yields showed mixed results, with short-term rates rising and the 10-year yield dropping by approximately 1 basis point [2] - The US dollar rose by 0.23%, despite a decline over the week, while Bitcoin experienced a drop of over 3% before rebounding [2] - Gold prices fell for three consecutive days, dropping nearly 1%, and domestic futures markets saw widespread declines, with coking coal futures dropping by 7.76% [2] Key News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is committed to stabilizing the market and enhancing investment value through various measures, including promoting long-term capital and addressing risks in real estate financing [4][9] - The State Council of China has initiated measures to gradually implement free preschool education, emphasizing its importance for long-term development [9] - The US government plans to impose tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, with current anti-dumping duties potentially increasing significantly [11] - South Korea is preparing to invest over $100 billion in exchange for tariff concessions from the US, indicating a strategic shift in trade negotiations [11] - Japan's central bank may consider raising interest rates within the year, following recent discussions on trade agreements with the US [13] Company Developments - Intel is accelerating its business restructuring by planning to spin off its networking division, which is expected to generate $5.8 billion in revenue for 2024, accounting for 11% of Intel's total sales [20] - Volkswagen reported a 29% decline in Q2 operating profit, attributing a loss of €1.3 billion to tariffs and lowering its full-year sales forecast [20] - The Chinese toy company Blokus is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% in net profit from 2024 to 2027, driven by strong R&D capabilities and efficient supply chain management [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are under pressure due to improved trade outlook and strong economic data, leading to a downward trend in gold ETFs and spot gold prices [1][7][8] - As of July 25, spot gold is priced at $3,363.76 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.13%, with a trading range between $3,373.44 and $3,363.21 [2][7] - The gold ETF (159937) experienced a decrease of 0.24%, with a trading volume of 1.52 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.53% [1][2] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% during the upcoming meeting, but there are still anticipations for rate cuts in September [7][8] - The recent visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about potential interference in the Fed's independence, which could support gold prices in the medium to long term due to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [7][8] - The gold ETF has seen a net increase of 116 million shares over the past month, indicating a growing interest in gold investments despite short-term fluctuations [8][9] Group 3 - The gold ETF and related funds are designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low-cost and diverse trading options, including T+0 trading [9] - The long-term value of gold assets is supported by their ability to hedge against tail risks in economic downturns, making them a viable investment option during various economic cycles [9]

Group 1: US Market Performance - The three major US stock indices opened higher on July 23, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.14%, the Nasdaq slightly increasing by 0.61%, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.78% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a peak increase of nearly 1.4% during the day, closing up by 0.75% [2][4] Group 2: Chinese Stocks and Market Sentiment - Chinese concept stocks continued to perform strongly, with the Wande China Technology Leaders Index rising nearly 2% [6] - Notable individual stock performances included Tencent Holdings ADR increasing by nearly 4% and Pinduoduo rising by nearly 3% [7][8] - A-shares also reached new highs for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing the 3600-point mark [8] Group 3: Capital Flows and Economic Outlook - Several foreign institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2025, citing stable economic performance and improving corporate profitability [9] - A significant portion of global sovereign wealth funds is planning to increase their allocation to Chinese assets, with around 60% of Middle Eastern sovereign funds indicating plans to invest more in China over the next five years [9] - Global capital is increasingly focusing on the Asia-Pacific region, with a notable shift away from US markets and dollar assets [10] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop, with spot gold falling below the $3390 per ounce mark [11][12] - Goldman Sachs noted a shift in the composition of gold market participants, with central banks becoming a more stable source of demand, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [14] - Analysts predict that gold prices could rise to $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [14][15]