Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical evolution of tariffs as a policy tool, highlighting the lessons learned from past tariff implementations and their impacts on the economy, particularly in the context of the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Group 1: Historical Context - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 significantly raised import tax rates, increasing the average tariff level in the U.S. from 13.5% in 1929 to 19.8% in 1933, leading to a 45% decline in nominal GDP and a 67% drop in total exports over four years, with unemployment reaching nearly 25% [1]. - Compared to the 1930s, the current global trade is characterized by international value chains, making the imposition of trade barriers more challenging and likely to disrupt supply chains [4]. Group 2: Current Trade Policies - Starting in 2018, the U.S. initiated multiple rounds of tariffs against China, escalating from $50 billion to $200 billion with a tax rate of 25%, resulting in a weakening of U.S.-China export ties and a temporary "export rush" effect in certain industries [6]. - The 2025 tariff policy under the Trump administration is expected to be more intense, with an average effective tariff rate projected to reach 22.4%, surpassing the levels seen during the Great Depression, and covering a broader range of products from consumer goods to high-tech items [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The macroeconomic impact of tariffs is typically gradual, with initial market reactions being severe, leading to a "rush to export" effect, as seen in 2018 when China's exports to the U.S. surged [12]. - In the medium term, as tariffs take effect, profit margins for companies reliant on imported raw materials will be squeezed, leading to reduced capital expenditure and declining consumer confidence [15]. - Long-term effects may include a restructuring of global supply chains as companies seek to mitigate costs and risks, potentially leading to a decrease in U.S.-China trade and a shift towards regionalization [18]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies in high-risk export industries, such as home appliances, automotive, and textiles, should be avoided due to their vulnerability to profit margin compression from tariffs [19]. - Focus should be on brand-name consumer goods with strong pricing power, as these companies can often pass on costs to consumers, mitigating the impact of tariffs [22]. - Industries with localized production capabilities, such as HVAC systems and large appliances, are less sensitive to tariff fluctuations and should be prioritized for investment [23]. - Sectors driven by domestic consumption, like food and beverage, exhibit relative stability and should be considered for medium to long-term investment [24]. - Technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, particularly those with domestic substitution potential, are key areas for investment focus [25]. - Resilient consumer sectors, including low-cost, high-frequency items and elder care products, are expected to perform well despite economic uncertainties [26].

图片来源于：广发证券 点击蓝字，关注我们 关税作为政策工具的历史演变 1、1930年代：斯穆特-霍利法案与全球⼤萧条的教训 1930年出台的《斯穆特-霍利关税法》在全球经济已显疲态之际，将超过两万种商品的进口税率显著上调，使美国平均关税水平从1929年的13.5%提升至 1933年的19.8%。 历史数据显示，在该法案实施后， 美国名义GDP在四年间下滑了45%，出口总额骤降67%，失业率攀升至近25% 。这一历史时期的经验深刻表明，在 全球经济高度关联的背景下，大幅度、非协商性的关税措施极易触发链式反应，最终对本国经济造成深远的负面影响。 然而，相对1930年代，当前世界贸易以国际价值链为特征，强行推进贸易壁垒会使得供应链紊乱甚至断裂， 真实落地的难度更大 ； 同时，对美国本身经济来说，当前 贸易战的冲击会远小于1930年代 ，原因在于：一是当前经济过热程度不如1920年代末期，二是美联储 有更灵活的货币政策空间，以应付可能产生的衰退或通缩。但鉴于美国当前进出口占GDP比重显著高于1930年代， 波及的人群和国家或 更广 。 2、2018年：特朗普"关税优先"政策的阶段性演绎 2018年起，美国对华发起多轮 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-04-24 贸易战释放缓和信号，郑棉期价震荡反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约12990元/吨，较前一日变动+195元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价13988元/吨，较前一日变动-94元/吨，现货基差CF09+998，较前一日变动-289；3128B棉全国均价14151元/ 吨，较前一日变动-67元/吨，现货基差CF09+1161，较前一日变动-262。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年4月20日当周，印度棉花周度上市量4.2万吨，同比下滑87%； 印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量441.96万吨，同比下滑5%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量（495 万吨）的89%，同比快5%。印度棉上市环比大幅回落，上市进度同比领先幅度收窄。其中，马哈拉斯特邦、古吉 拉特邦、安德拉邦以及印度北部省份上市量明显回落。 市场分析 中性。盘面风险阶段性出清，但宏观不确定性仍强，短期棉价预计震荡运行。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 棉花观点 昨日郑棉受特朗普释放缓和信号影响小幅反弹。宏观方面， ...

首席点评：关税政策摇摆，市场波动加大 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞 开。中国外交部发言人郭嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就 应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。一边说要同中方 达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通 的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制 造业 PMI 不降反升好于预期。数据表明，4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低 点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销 售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅上涨，与关税有关。就 业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油：SC 夜盘回落 2.25%。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定 石油产量水平时，哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国 的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海 外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的消息人士的话说， 一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade negotiations, highlighting the mixed signals from US officials that create confusion in the market [3][5]. Group 1: US Officials' Statements - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that while the US-China trade talks are a "marathon," the current tariff deadlock is a "dead end," suggesting a potential easing of the trade war in the near future [3]. - White House spokesperson Levitt supported Mnuchin's statements, claiming that the trade agreement progress is "smooth" and that President Trump is ready to sign numerous trade agreements [3]. - However, Levitt also mentioned Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve, indicating a contradictory stance that could undermine the positive narrative [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Mnuchin's comments, US stock indices surged over 2.5%, reflecting a strong positive reaction from investors who interpreted the statements as a sign of easing tensions [3]. - The market's rapid response to the news suggests a high level of sensitivity to trade-related developments, with investors eager for any signs of resolution [3]. Group 3: Overall Implications - The article emphasizes that the US-China trade relationship is complex and cannot be resolved through mere rhetoric; genuine negotiation and mutual benefit are essential for progress [5]. - The mixed messages from US officials create uncertainty, leading to speculation about the actual state of negotiations and the potential for future developments [5].

Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may experience short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal may show a short - term oscillatory upward trend [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, corn futures prices will be range - bound, and a range - trading strategy is recommended [1]. - **Copper**: Tactical defense should focus on the suppression of the 60 - day moving average and the shape of the monthly K - line [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The Y2507 contract of lithium carbonate may be weakly oscillatory, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4]. - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy at low prices for far - month contracts after May is recommended [5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke will experience a weak oscillatory rebound at low levels, with limited upside [6][7]. - **Iron Ore**: The I2505 contract of iron ore will be oscillatory in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. Attention should be paid to the resistance at $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract [9]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan per ton for the main contract [10]. - **PVC**: Due to weak demand, PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12]. Market Analysis by Product Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Situation**: Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. The South American new crop is likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3,700 yuan/ton, 4,080 yuan/ton, 3,840 yuan/ton, and 3,620 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Market Situation**: The Sino - U.S. trade tariff issue remains unresolved. U.S. soybean sowing progress exceeds expectations, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is nearing completion. As Brazilian soybeans arrive in China, the supply of soybean meal is expected to become more abundant. The pre - May Day inventory build - up in the spot market and the oil mill's production are misaligned, leading to a low inventory of soybean meal [1]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2,105 yuan/ton; in North China and the Huang - Huai region, it is 2,313 yuan/ton. The purchase prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are in the range of 2,160 - 2,190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Situation**: The impact of U.S. tariff events on the U.S. corn market is weakening. The USDA report in April lowered the U.S. corn production and ending stocks, and the weakening U.S. dollar index supports the U.S. corn futures. In China, farmers have sold most of their corn, and the import of corn and substitute grains has decreased significantly. However, the downstream demand is weak due to factors such as slow pig production reduction, high feed inventory, wheat substitution, and the upcoming new wheat harvest [1]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The global market is still affected by "irrational" tariffs, and overseas capital markets are highly volatile. The Fed's uncertain actions and domestic policy support co - exist. The raw material supply problem of copper has not been completely resolved, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 69,500 yuan/ton (down 500 yuan/ton), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 68,100 yuan/ton (down 750 yuan/ton) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is declining. The weekly operating rate is increasing but at a slower pace, and the salt lake production has resumed. The demand has improved but is not strong enough to drive the price up. The weekly inventory has been increasing [3][4]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is in the range of 77,060 - 77,330 yuan, up 645 yuan. The import copper concentrate index is - 34.71, down 3.82 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weakened contango structure and a neutral - to - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry, the apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices are oscillating weakly. Steel inventories are decreasing, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 246.10 million tons [6]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of coking coal and coke is relatively abundant. Domestic production capacity is recovering, and the utilization rate of coking plants is stable. The demand from steel mills is weak, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises is gradually increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [6][7]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts Iron Ore Index is 99.3, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 777 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore fines (62% Fe) is 768 yuan [8]. - **Market Situation**: The iron ore market has both positive and negative factors. The Australian iron ore shipment has decreased, while the Brazilian shipment has increased. The global total shipment has slightly decreased, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic steel mill's iron production has increased, but the procurement is still cautious. Overseas demand is differentiated, and the U.S. tariff policy increases market volatility [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment has improved slightly, and the U.S. inventory has decreased. OPEC+ has announced compensation cuts for April - May, offsetting the planned increase in May. However, the impact of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy still exists. In the medium - to - long term, the price center of crude oil will move downward. The demand in the second quarter may be severely affected by the trade war [9]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: Not provided in detail, but mentioned the impact on China's tire and automobile exports [10]. - **Market Situation**: The global rubber market is affected by the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, showing a weak oscillatory trend. The supply in China is gradually recovering, and the supply in Thailand is abundant. The global rubber market has a situation of both loose supply and demand, and the U.S. automobile tariff may suppress the demand [10]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4,780 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [11]. - **Market Situation**: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has increased. The demand from downstream enterprises has not improved significantly, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at low levels due to weak demand [11]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,413.06 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [12]. - **Market Situation**: The overall operating rate of soda ash production has increased, and the output has increased. The manufacturer's inventory has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The demand is average, and the futures market may be weakly oscillatory in the short term [12].

Ken Griffin猛烈抨击特朗普的关税政策，认为其正在损害美国声誉。 据媒体报道，周三，对冲基金巨头Citadel创始人兼首席执行官肯·格里芬(Ken Griffin)在世界经济峰会上 接受媒体采访时表示，特朗普行动过快，疏远了盟友，并玷污了美国资产曾经"无可比拟"的卓越声誉， 包括美国国债、美元强势和国家信用度。 Griffin警告称： "不幸的是，贸易战已经变得毫无意义，这意味着我们要花时间思考供应链。" "我们将品牌置于风险之中。要修复已经造成的损害，可能需要一辈子的时间。" 他将当前情况与哈佛大学的遭遇相提并论，认为政府对这所美国顶尖学府的施压，无异于"攻击美国最 卓越的品牌之一"。 Griffin对特朗普旨在通过关税复兴美国制造业的核心目标表示强烈怀疑。他认为： "我告诉你什么不会发生：人们不会筹集资金在美国建厂，因为政策的波动性实际上破坏了 你试图实现的目标。" Griffin引用欧元作为参照，尖锐地指出美国"在四周内变穷了20%"，这种经济环境不会产生任何赢家。 "当蛋糕迅速缩小时，没有所谓的大好机会，你所能做的只是勉强维持，不被淹没。" Griffin表示，他"最严重的担忧"是美国官员的行 ...

特朗普政府，又因滥用关税被起诉！ 据最新消息，当地时间4月23日，包括纽约州、亚利桑那州在内的美国11个州起诉特朗普政府，试图阻止特朗普政府 关税政策的实施，并寻求法院宣布其新关税政策是非法的。 据悉，纽约州总检察长利蒂希娅·詹姆斯在一份关于诉讼的声明中表示，总统没有权力随心所欲地提高税收，特朗普 却在关税政策问题上这样做了。该诉讼认为，根据特朗普在执行关税政策时所引用的《国际紧急经济权力法》，美 国总统无权任意征收关税。 诉讼提到："总统声称有权对任何进入美国的商品征收巨额且不断变化的关税，无论他以何种理由宣布紧急状态，他 都颠覆了宪法秩序，给美国经济带来了混乱。" 同一天，CNBC报道称，白宫证实，特朗普正在考虑豁免汽车制造商的部分关税。此外，还有媒体报道称，特朗普打 算豁免汽车零部件的部分关税，其中包括对进口钢铁和铝产品征收的关税。 此前， 美国加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽森当地时间16日宣布就关税问题起诉特朗普政府，指责后者滥用关税政策的行 为"违法"。这是美国首个对特朗普关税"大棒"发起挑战的州政府。 根据加州州长办公室发表的声明，这项诉讼在加 州北区联邦地区法院提起，将请求法院宣布特朗普政府征收的关税 ...

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容编译自彭博 ，谢谢。 由于工业和汽车零部件需求改善，最大的模拟半导体制造商德州仪器公司对当前时期的预测好于预 期。 该公司周三在一份声明中表示，第二季度营收预计在41.7亿美元至45.3亿美元之间。这一数字远超 华尔街平均预期的41.2亿美元，推动其股价在尾盘交易中上涨约5%。 这份报告是科技行业首批财报之一，对芯片行业来说是一个利好消息。德州仪器拥有半导体领域最 广泛的产品线和最大的客户群，这使得其盈利状况成为衡量从工厂设备到家用电子产品等所有产品 需求信心的指标。 自特朗普政府宣布新关税以来，投资者一直在热切等待企业指引，预计新关税将影响大范围电子产 品。 该公司上季度销售额自2022年以来首次实现增长。当被问及客户是否为了赶在可能加征的关税前 下单时，首席执行官哈维夫·伊兰（Haviv Ilan）表示，至少在第一季度，情况并非如此。他承 认，公司对前景仍持谨慎态度。 他在与分析师的电话会议上表示："越来越多的证据和信号表明，所有渠道、所有地区的工业市场 都正在复苏。我认为这是真正的复苏，而不是与关税有关——至少在第一季度不是。" 这家总部位于达拉斯的公 ...

首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...