1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term rebound [15] - **Gold**: Short - term market volatility increases, and the risk of correction after a rapid rise increases [17] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Fed officials' attitude change repairs short - term market sentiment, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [20] - **Stock Index Futures**: Wait for the Politburo meeting in April to set the future policy direction [25] - **Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke)**: After a sharp short - term decline, market sentiment is released. The near - month contract has weak performance in delivery games, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [27] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices remain volatile for the time being. Soybean meal spot is strong in the short term but is expected to decline gradually in May [31] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: In the short term, the oil market lacks clear guidance. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [34] - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly under the influence of the external market in Q2 2025. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the Brazilian crushing production [39] - **Agricultural Products (Corn Starch)**: The current CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40] - **Agricultural Products (Corn)**: Long the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term. The 5 - 7 spread is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities [42] - **Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the short term, it is recommended to be cautious with light positions and pay attention to spot rebound hedging opportunities [46] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: Pay attention to the PS2506 - 2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spread opportunities [48] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Partially stop profit on previous short positions. Do not go long on the left side. Consider going long on the right side after clear signals appear [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Adopt a bearish approach and pay attention to shorting opportunities at the upper edge of the range [51] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate strongly. Adopt a band - trading strategy and pay attention to the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage strategy [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Hold previous long positions. Investors without positions should wait and see and pay attention to position management [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Wait and see in the short term. Hold previous long positions and wait for high - selling opportunities. Hold the domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Pay attention to the mid - line rebound shorting opportunities near the moving average. Adopt the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage strategy in the mid - line [67] - **Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Oil prices are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [71] - **Energy Chemicals (Urea)**: The futures price is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [74] - **Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips)**: Pay attention to the implementation of the industry's joint production reduction [77] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The rebound of caustic soda spot weakens, and the futures price falls. Pay attention to macro - impacts [79] - **Energy Chemicals (Pulp)**: The short - term market is dominated by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [81] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on commodity demand and domestic stimulus policies [82] - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: CEA prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [85] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87] 2. Core Views - Trump changed his stance on firing Powell in advance, hoping that the Fed would cut interest rates quickly. Market risk appetite rebounded significantly, and the US dollar index rebounded [14]. - Spot gold prices fell after rising to $3500. Market speculative fever cooled down. Trump's statement of not firing Powell led to a rebound in overseas market risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. In the Chinese stock market, on April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the market rose slightly with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [3]. - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market was sensitive to overseas trade risks and was in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality [4]. - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. The polysilicon contract valuation is low, and positive spread opportunities can be关注 [5]. - US API crude oil inventory data affected the market, and oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news [6]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the US economy is in good shape, but there are concerns about corporate investment and consumer spending [12]. - The US, Ukraine, and European allies will hold talks on a peace plan. Trump said he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell and hopes for faster interest - rate cuts. Market risk appetite rebounded, and the US dollar index rebounded [13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said the cryptocurrency industry needs clear regulatory policies. Spot gold prices fell after reaching a high. The end of the market driven by end - of - the - world options and Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk appetite and a correction in gold prices [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. US officials signaled a relaxation of tariff policies, and Trump said he has no intention of firing Powell. Market sentiment improved in the short term, but the downward trend in the US stock market is not reversed [18][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Multiple regions in China are planning to introduce a new round of stimulus policies. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. On April 22, the stock index sentiment was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3300 points. The expectation of domestic demand policies is strengthening [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is weak. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but further increases are difficult. The supply of coke is relatively high, and inventories are decreasing. The coking coal market is under pressure, and the main contract fluctuates weakly [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - ADM will close a soybean processing plant in South Carolina. Brazil's soybean exports in the first three weeks of April were 9423 million tons. The domestic soybean meal spot is in short supply, and futures prices remain volatile [28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20 increased by 3.64% month - on - month. Brazil's soybean harvest progress as of April 19 was 92.5%. The oil market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to go long on rapeseed oil and short on palm oil [32][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India plans to increase sugarcane production by 7% in the next three years. Pakistan's sugar exports in the first 9 months of the 2024/25 season increased significantly. A sugar factory in Guangxi cleared its inventory ahead of schedule. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in Q2 2025 [35][39]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable. Due to high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the market is in a stalemate. After the export restriction policy was lifted, starch exports increased, and the futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is rising. The average national corn price on April 21 was 2198.33 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on the 07 contract in the medium - to - long term and pay attention to positive spread opportunities [41][42]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The year - on - year decline in new home sales in 10 major cities was 18.5%. India imposed a 12% temporary safeguard tax on flat steel products. Steel prices fluctuated and declined. The market is in a game between weakening demand expectations and relatively strong reality. It is recommended to be cautious with light positions [43][46]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US announced the final anti - dumping and counter - subsidy tax rulings on photovoltaic products from four Southeast Asian countries. It is expected that polysilicon production will increase in May, and inventory will decrease. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities [47][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In March, the export of silicone increased significantly. The price of industrial silicon has fallen below the cash cost line. Some manufacturers plan to reduce production. It is recommended to partially stop profit on previous short positions and wait for clear signals to go long [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium mine in Inner Mongolia obtained a mining license. Some salt factories are undergoing maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. However, the decline in ore prices makes it difficult for prices to rebound. Adopt a bearish approach [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - A copper mine project in Zambia was approved for mining, and a company in Yingtan plans to expand its recycled copper project. Macro - factors are less negative for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. Consider a band - trading strategy and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [52][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic trade benchmark price in April, which decreased. Stainless steel mills are reducing production. The price of nickel is expected to repair its valuation. Hold previous long positions and wait and see for investors without positions [55][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead refineries in Central and East China reduced production due to raw material shortages. The supply of lead may decline earlier than demand. Short - term tightness is possible. It is recommended to wait and see and hold previous long positions [61][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Some zinc - mining companies' production in Q1 2025 decreased. The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with demand being weaker. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage [63][67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventory decreased. The US announced new sanctions on Iran. Oil prices rebounded due to geopolitical conflict news and are expected to range - bound [68][71]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - In March 2025, urea imports decreased, and exports increased. The futures price of urea is expected to enter a volatile pattern with the possibility of a pulse - type rebound in the short term. In the medium term, the price may decline due to supply pressure [72][74]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips is mostly stable, with some slight decreases. The polyester raw material market is weak. The supply of bottle chips may increase under high - capacity operation. Pay attention to the implementation of industry - wide production reduction [75][77]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On April 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was good. The futures price of caustic soda fell. Pay attention to macro - impacts [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp weakened. The futures price of pulp was affected by macro - factors. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [82]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration released the "China Green Power Certificate Development Report (2024)". The CEA price is under pressure due to a large supply surplus. It is expected to continue to decline in the short term [83][85]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - On April 22, the soda ash market in Shahe adjusted weakly. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is not strong. Soda ash futures prices are expected to be under pressure. Adopt a mid - line short - selling strategy [86]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On April 22, the price of float glass in Shahe was stable. The glass futures price fluctuated slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to be under pressure. Consider going long on far - month contracts at low prices, but do not be overly optimistic about the rebound space [87].

Core Viewpoint - 3M Company maintains its full-year earnings guidance while acknowledging new risks from the ongoing trade war [1] Financial Performance - In its Q1 earnings statement, 3M indicated that tariffs could negatively impact full-year earnings by up to $0.40 per share [1] - The company continues to project adjusted earnings per share of $7.60 to $7.90 for 2025 [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings announcement, 3M's stock initially dropped by 2% in pre-market trading but later reversed the trend, rising nearly 3% [1] Industry Significance - 3M is considered an economic bellwether due to its extensive portfolio of consumer and industrial products, providing broad exposure to various sectors of the economy [1]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices mostly declined, with several ETFs in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rising, such as the Huatai-PB Innovation Drug ETF (517120.SH) up 3.23% and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation Drug ETF (159622.SZ) up 2.73% [1] - The pharmaceutical sector continues to rebound, particularly in the innovative drug sub-sector, driven by recent tariff increases between China and the US, which may benefit domestic innovation [2] - Gold prices surged, leading to record inflows into gold-themed ETFs, with 14 gold-themed ETFs collectively attracting over 51 billion yuan from January 1 to April 18, 2025, and their total asset size reaching 145.1 billion yuan, more than doubling from the end of 2024 [3] - Major funds increased their holdings in four leading CSI 300 ETFs during the first quarter, with a total investment of approximately 4.471 billion yuan [4] Market Overview - On April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25% to 3299.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.82% [5] - In terms of sector performance, retail, construction materials, and transportation sectors led the gains, while media, communication, and computer sectors lagged behind [7] ETF Performance - The average performance of commodity ETFs was the best among various categories, with an average increase of 2.78%, while stock-themed index ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of 0.25% [10] - The top-performing ETFs included the Huatai-PB Innovation Drug ETF (517120.SH) and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation Drug ETF (159622.SZ), with daily returns of 3.23% and 2.73%, respectively [12][13] Trading Activity - The top three ETFs by trading volume included the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with a trading volume of 2.919 billion yuan, followed by the South China A500 ETF (159352.SZ) at 2.652 billion yuan and the A500 ETF (159338.SZ) at 2.339 billion yuan [15][16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential crisis facing the US dollar as investors begin to sell off American assets, leading to severe consequences for the global economy [1][2] - The dollar, traditionally viewed as a safe asset, has seen a decline of over 9% since mid-January, with significant drops occurring after April 1, indicating growing investor concerns about US risks [2][3] - The US's fiscal situation is deteriorating, with net debt reaching 100% of GDP and a budget deficit of 7%, raising alarms about the sustainability of its economic policies [3][4] Group 2 - The chaotic management of trade policies under the Trump administration has led to increased uncertainty, undermining confidence in US governance and economic stability [4][5] - A potential bond market crisis looms as foreign investors hold $8.5 trillion of US government debt, with a significant portion held by private investors who may not respond to diplomatic pressures [5][6] - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging dilemma in balancing economic stability with the perception of supporting a government with questionable credibility, especially in a high-inflation environment [6][7] Group 3 - The decline of the dollar's status could have tragic implications for the US, as it has historically lowered funding costs for various sectors, from first-time homebuyers to blue-chip companies [6][7] - The global financial system is at risk, as there is currently no viable alternative to the dollar, with other currencies and assets lacking the necessary backing to provide the same level of security [7]

智通财经APP获悉，在美联储独立性危机与关税争端升级的夹击下，国际资本正加速逃离美元资产。周二外汇市场传来惊雷：日元兑美元汇率一举突破被视 为重要心理关口的140大关，单日飙升0.7%至1美元兑139.90日元，创下去年九月以来的最高水平，稳居当日G10货币涨幅榜首位。截至发稿，日元兑美元汇 率下跌0.37%，至1美元兑140.34日元。 技术面上，日元升势已触发关键转折点。瑞穗证券分析指出，伴随美股回调及日美财长即将展开的货币谈判，汇率可能测试去年创造的139.58高点。这可能 有助于进一步升值。 东海东京情报研究所(Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory Co.)高级固定收益和外汇策略师柴田英树(Hideki Shibata)警告，"如果日元明显超过140的水平，或者 去年9月触及的139.50附近水平，技术因素将更容易引发日元买盘和美元卖盘，从而加速日元升值。" 投机资本的动向更印证了这轮升势的强劲。美国商品期货交易委员会最新数据显示，对冲基金对日元的看涨仓位已达历史峰值。市场正屏息以待日本财务大 臣加藤胜信与美国财政部长斯科特・贝森特的关键会晤，特朗普曾多次抨击日本刻意 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of the Fuqua Tianhui Select Growth Fund, which increased its holdings in companies like BYD, Ningbo Bank, and Ruifeng New Materials during Q1 2025, with Kweichow Moutai remaining the largest holding [1][2] - The fund's net asset value growth rates for different classes were 3.56% for A/B and D classes, and 3.35% for C class, while the benchmark return was -1.09% across all classes [1] Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.77% in Q1 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [2] - Despite the downturn, there are signs of recovery in the real economy, with a slowdown in the decline of the real estate sector and indications of investment recovery [2] Investment Strategy - The fund manager emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks with strong corporate governance and management, as these are more likely to generate value for investors in the long term [2] - The report suggests that the current market conditions may lead to increased volatility, and a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy is anticipated [2] Top Holdings - As of Q1 2025, the top ten holdings of the Fuqua Tianhui Select Growth Fund include Kweichow Moutai, Ningbo Bank, Midea Group, Chuanfeng Power, Luxshare Precision, CATL, Ruifeng New Materials, BYD, Guocera Materials, and Binjiang Group, with Binjiang Group being a new addition to the top holdings [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of the economy, despite ongoing uncertainties due to trade wars, with a focus on specific investment opportunities in quality growth and dividend value styles [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - The fund managed by Zhu Shaoxing increased its positions in BYD (002594), Ningbo Bank (002142), and Ruifeng New Materials (300910) during the first quarter, while Kweichow Moutai (600519) remains the largest holding [1] - The report highlights that the fund is adapting its strategy in response to market conditions, particularly in the context of real estate and consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Micro-research feedback suggests a slowdown in the decline of the real estate sector and signs of investment recovery, although consumer spending remains low without further deterioration in inventory levels [1] - Zhu Shaoxing expresses that the entity economy should be on a gradual recovery path, but the significant uncertainties from the trade war may lead to increased market volatility and greater difficulty in stock selection in the future [1] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Zhu Shaoxing believes that under the current valuation, there are good investment opportunities in dividend value styles, while quality growth styles also present numerous investment prospects [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moffett Nathanson analysts believe that Apple's stock price will continue to decline in the short term, with a significant downgrade in target price from $184 to $141, indicating a potential drop of over 28% from the current price of $196.98 [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Moffett slightly raised the short-term earnings per share (EPS) forecast for Apple's fiscal year 2025 from $7.18 to $7.20, attributing this to consumer behavior in response to tariffs, although he cautions that this effect will not last [1] - Other Wall Street analysts expect Apple's EPS for fiscal year 2025 to be $7.26, while Moffett's forecast for fiscal year 2026 is only $7.06, significantly lower than the previous estimate of $7.87 and below the general expectation of $8.00 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite the temporary relief from tariffs on smartphones, Apple still faces significant import duties on products from various manufacturing bases, which were previously unimaginable [2] - Since Moffett downgraded Apple's rating to "sell" in January, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from 32 times to approximately 27 times, indicating a potential further decline in P/E due to unchanged market expectations [2] Group 3: Competitive and Regulatory Challenges - Apple is struggling in the trade war, facing a dilemma of either paying high tariffs or incurring substantial costs to restructure its supply chain, which would significantly increase expenses [3] - Moffett highlighted that Apple is lagging behind competitors in the commercialization of artificial intelligence, with its iPhone Intelligence failing to drive a strong upgrade cycle for the iPhone [3] - The ongoing antitrust case against Google's parent company, Alphabet, poses additional risks for Apple, as payments from Google for search engine revenue on iPhone browsers constitute over a quarter of Apple's operating profit, and these payments have been deemed illegal by a judge [3]

摘要周二（4月22日）亚市盘中，黄金t+d高位震荡，最新黄金td价格报823.10元/克，涨幅2.94%，因美 国总统特朗普再度威胁美联储独立性，特朗普的关税政策也持续动摇投资者对美国经济的信心，这些因 素导致美元暴跌，并激发避险需求，从而引发黄金大幅上涨。 周二（4月22日）亚市盘中，黄金t+d高位震荡，最新黄金td价格报823.10元/克，涨幅2.94%，因美国总 统特朗普再度威胁美联储独立性，特朗普的关税政策也持续动摇投资者对美国经济的信心，这些因素导 致美元暴跌，并激发避险需求，从而引发黄金大幅上涨。 【要闻速递】 美国谘商会高级经理Justyna Zabinska-La Monica表示："美国3月份经济增长指标表明，未来经济活动将 放缓。""3月份的下跌集中在三个分项指标上，这三个分项指标在关税宣布之前因经济不确定性上升而 走弱：1)消费者预期进一步下降；2)股价创下自2022年9月以来的最大月度跌幅；3)制造业新订单疲软。 尽管如此，数据并不表明衰退已经开始或即将开始。尽管如此，谘商会将美国2025年的GDP增长预测下 调至1.6%，略低于美国经济的潜力。预期增长率放缓反映了贸易战加剧的影响，这 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most of the industries are rated neutrally, with some showing a weak or bearish tendency. Industries with a trend strength of -1 include asphalt, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, methanol, urea, and soda ash. Industries with a trend strength of 0 include rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, log, benzene ethylene, and LPG. The trend strength of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is not explicitly mentioned [2][12][15][18] Core Viewpoints - Different industries in the energy and chemical sector show various trends, including mid - term weakness, short - term oscillations, and price rebounds that are difficult to sustain. Market factors such as cost, supply and demand, and trade policies have significant impacts on these trends [2][9][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX has a mid - term weak trend, PTA is mid - term weak, and MEG is mid - term weak with short - term rebounds [4][5][9] - **Fundamental Data**: On April 21, 2025, PX主力收盘 was 6110, PTA主力收盘 was 4350, and MEG主力收盘 was 4205. There were corresponding changes in daily and monthly differences [5] - **Market News**: In March 2025, South Korea's PX exports decreased, with a decline in exports to China and Unv1, but an increase to the US. PTA futures rose on the 18th, and an EO - EG联产装置 in East China reduced its ethylene glycol load [7][8] Rubber - **Market Trends**: Rubber is expected to oscillate. On April 21, 2025, the rubber主力日盘收盘价 was 14,795 yuan/ton, and the night - disk收盘价 was 14,575 yuan/ton [10][12] - **Industry News**: In March 2025, China's small - passenger - car tire exports increased in quantity but decreased in average price. In April, export orders were weak, and the export volume was expected to decline [13][14] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: Synthetic rubber is in a low - level oscillation. The current fundamentals drive the price downward, but the decline space is limited due to low valuation [15][17] - **Fundamental Data**: As of April 16, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises increased. The price of butadiene in Asia weakened, and the supply of polybutadiene rubber was expected to increase [15][17] Asphalt - **Market Trends**: Asphalt is de - stocking again and oscillating with oil. On April 21, 2025, the炼厂开工率 was 32.87%, and the炼厂库存率 was 30.50% [18][29] - **Market News**: From April 15 - 21, 2025, the domestic asphalt production increased. As of April 21, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [29] LLDPE - **Market Trends**: LLDPE is in a low - level oscillation. The market price mostly declined slightly, and the supply pressure may appear in the third quarter [30][31] - **Market Analysis**: Trade wars increase uncertainty, affecting plastic product exports and polyethylene imports. The demand for agricultural films is at its peak, and the packaging film demand is average [30][31] PP - **Market Trends**: The PP price increased slightly, and the trading volume was average. The futures oscillated, and the spot market was mainly in consolidation [34][35] - **Market News**: The downstream new orders were insufficient, and the trading was mainly for low - price and necessary purchases [35] Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain. The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong increased by 1.22% [37][38] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term replenishment led to a price rebound, but the low profit of alumina and high inventory of caustic soda cannot drive continuous positive feedback. The export can support the price, but the space is limited [39] Pulp - **Market Trends**: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillation. The futures slightly increased, and the spot market showed a pattern of stable softwood pulp and weak hardwood pulp [42][44] - **Industry News**: The white - cardboard market was weak, with sufficient supply and weak demand [45] Log - **Market Trends**: Logs are in a weak oscillation. In March 2025, China's coniferous log imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [46][50] - **Fundamental Data**: On April 21, 2025, the 2507合约收盘价 of logs was 811.5, with a daily decline of 1.3% [48] Methanol - **Market Trends**: Methanol is under oscillation pressure. The futures主力收盘价 on April 22, 2025, was 2,275 yuan/ton [51][52] - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index decreased. The overseas inventory was accumulating, and the 5 - 9 and 6 - 9 reverse spreads continued [54] Urea - **Market Trends**: Urea is under oscillation pressure. The short - term is expected to oscillate and be under pressure, and the medium - term is expected to oscillate widely [56][58][59] - **Fundamental Data**: On April 22, 2025, the urea主力收盘价 was 1,772 yuan/ton, and the开工率 was 84.91% [57] Styrene - **Market Trends**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The strategy is to short at high prices after the rebound and compress the profit [60][63] - **Market News**: MX is stronger than other aromatics before May. After June, the pattern of MX may deteriorate. The inventory depreciation contradiction in the industry chain is severe [61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The soda ash spot market has little change and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [64][65] - **Fundamental Data**: On April 22, 2025, the SA2505收盘价 was 1,289 yuan/ton, and the 05合约基差 was 61 [64] LPG - **Market Trends**: LPG is in a short - term oscillation. On April 22, 2025, the PG2506收盘价 was 4,375 yuan/ton [67] - **Market News**: On April 18, 2025, the expected Saudi CP prices for May and June were stable. There are many PDH device maintenance plans in China [74] PVC - **Market Trends**: PVC is in a weak oscillation. The export demand is affected by tariffs, and the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term [77][78] - **Market Analysis**: The high - production pattern is difficult to change due to the support of caustic soda profit. The high - inventory pressure persists, and the export sustainability is uncertain [77][78] Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil has a short - term correction, and there is still support below [81]