避险资产
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交易者撤出避险资产 欧元兑美元跌向关键支撑位
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 14:25
Group 1 - The market sentiment towards global trade relations is improving, leading to a negative correlation between risk assets and the euro's performance [1] - The euro has recently been viewed as a hedge against U.S. policy uncertainty, benefiting from safe-haven inflows during stock market declines [1] - The euro has depreciated significantly, dropping to 1.1079 against the dollar, marking a one-month low, with 1.10 identified as a key support level [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the euro may continue to face pressure, with any further trade progress potentially accelerating its decline [1] - Some institutions remain optimistic about the euro, with forecasts suggesting it could rebound later this year as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, potentially reaching 1.17 by the end of 2025 and 1.24 by the end of 2026 [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast, now expecting the euro to rise to 1.20 by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [2] Group 3 - The market has adjusted its expectations for the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate cuts, which may support the euro [2][3] - ECB Governing Council member Schnabel has expressed a cautious stance on further rate cuts, indicating that maintaining rates near current levels is appropriate [2] - Current market bets place the ECB's deposit rate at 1.75%, higher than previous estimates of 1.55% to 1.67% [3]
金价,大跳水!低克重“金饼”走俏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 11:47
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that global risk aversion has decreased due to positive developments in US-China trade negotiations and easing geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in international gold prices [1] - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are trading around $3221 per ounce, reflecting a daily drop of over 3.6% from previous highs [1][2] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have maintained a high level of volatility throughout the year, with a notable increase in demand for gold products among younger consumers [2][3] Group 2 - A new trend has emerged in the market with ultra-lightweight gold stickers, weighing between 0.01 grams to 0.2 grams, appealing to younger consumers with prices ranging from tens to over a hundred yuan [3][5] - Gold banknotes and gold cakes have become popular in the Shenzhen market, especially themed products for occasions like Mother's Day, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards lower-weight gold items [3][5] - The price of gold banknotes is generally around 160 yuan, while the price of gold jewelry has seen a decline, with market prices dropping below 800 yuan per gram [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the easing of trade and geopolitical tensions may lead to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, putting continued pressure on gold prices [6] - However, ongoing purchases by central banks and speculative activities by retail investors may provide some support for gold prices, preventing a significant decline [6] - Goldman Sachs has reiterated its bullish outlook on gold, predicting that spot gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of the year and potentially hit $4000 by mid-2026 [6]
金价,大跳水!低克重“金饼”走俏
证券时报· 2025-05-12 11:29
Core Viewpoint - Despite a recent decline in gold prices, the market has maintained a high level of volatility since the beginning of the year, leading to new trends in gold purchasing behavior among consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of the latest report, COMEX gold futures are trading around $3221 per ounce, with a daily decline of over 3.6% from a previous close of $3344 [1][2]. - The highest price recorded recently was $3295.5, while the lowest was $3219.2, indicating significant fluctuations in the market [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - A new trend has emerged with the popularity of ultra-lightweight gold stickers, weighing between 0.01 grams to 0.2 grams, priced from tens to over a hundred yuan, appealing particularly to younger consumers [3]. - The market has also seen a rise in themed gold notes and bars, especially around occasions like Mother's Day, with sales of nearly 100 units in a single day [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The price of gold notes generally hovers around 160 yuan, with variations based on real-time gold prices and additional processing fees [6]. - High gold prices have not necessarily benefited sellers, as consumer preferences have shifted towards low-weight, design-oriented gold jewelry, reflecting a trend towards "small and beautiful" products [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that easing trade and geopolitical tensions may lead to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, potentially putting downward pressure on gold prices [6]. - However, ongoing purchases by central banks and retail speculation may provide some support for gold prices, preventing significant declines [6]. - Goldman Sachs has reiterated a bullish long-term outlook for gold, predicting that spot gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4000 by mid-2026 [7].
中美经贸会谈联合声明!避险情绪缓解,黄金大跌,后市如何
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-12 11:22
北京商报讯(记者 李海颜)中美经贸会谈释放积极信号,黄金上涨却遇到阻碍。5月12日,国际金价急 速"跳水",截至17时10分,伦敦现货黄金报3226美元/盎司,跌幅达3.04%,最低触及3215.78美元/盎司; COMEX黄金期货报3234.5美元/盎司,跌幅达3.26%,最低触及3219.2美元/盎司。 "国际金价之所以出现大幅下跌,主要是中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,大幅降低双边关税水平。"苏 商银行特约研究员武泽伟说道。 据悉,5月10日至11日,中美双方在瑞士日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈。5月12日,中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声 明发布,双方达成多项积极共识,会谈取得实质性进展。根据联合声明,中美双方大幅降低双边关税水 平,美方取消了共计91%的加征关税,中方相应取消了91%的反制关税;美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税", 中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 武泽伟表示,黄金是典型的避险资产,与世界地缘政治局势密切相关。因此,在中美经贸谈判取得成果 时,由于市场风险偏好下降,国际金价就有回调风险。 回顾国际金价走势,受地缘政治冲突、美联储降息等因素的影响,2025年开年以来,国际金价便延续了去 年的强势表现 ...
避险需求消退 !黄金多头彻底溃败?分析师警告:别被短期波动骗了
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-05-12 11:00
在一场可能对全球经济造成严重破坏的贸易战大幅缓和之际,本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展,大幅降低双边关税水平,美方取消了共计91%的加征 关税,中方相应取消了91%的反制关税;美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税",中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 据外媒报道,周一,黄金价格下跌3%,跌至一周多以来的最低水平。此前中国和美国表示已达成削减互征关税的协议,这推动美元上涨,同时削弱了黄金 作为避险资产的吸引力。 现货黄金下跌3%,报3224.34美元/盎司,为5月1日以来的最低水平。美国黄金期货下跌3.5%,报3228.10美元。 瑞士银行分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示:"中美紧张局势的缓和,以及关税在90天内被削减,降低了对黄金等避险资产的需求。""短期内价格可能会保持波 动。但美国较高的关税仍在拖累经济增长,可能会迫使各国央行在今年晚些时候进一步降息。此外,各国央行可能会利用此次价格回调来增加黄金敞口。" 上个月,美国引发了贸易战,并加剧了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧。 (文章来源:金十数据) Reliance Securities高级大宗商品分析师吉格尔特里维迪表示,贸易谈判取得进展,短期内,金价 ...
跳水!金价遭遇“周末风暴”
华尔街见闻· 2025-05-12 03:32
刚刚过去的这个周末,大事频发,随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和,全球避 险情绪退潮,黄金跳水。 周一,亚市盘初,现货黄金大幅走低超40美元,盘中最多下跌1.4%,截至发稿报3277.89美元/盎司。 上周黄金上涨2.6%。 普京再次强调,俄罗斯愿意在不设置先决条件的情况下与乌克兰进行直接谈判。此前在伊斯坦布尔举行 的俄乌谈判破裂原因不在俄方,虽然战斗行动还在持续,但是俄方愿意与乌克兰恢复此前中断的谈判。 一度推迟的美伊第四轮谈判也正式启动。 据 央视报道 ,当地时间11日从伊朗方面获悉,伊朗和美国关 于核问题的第四轮谈判当天在阿曼首都开始举行。 黄金跳水同时,周一美股期货大幅走高。美股三大股指期货高开逾1%,纳指期货涨1.5%,标普500指 数期货涨1.27%。 分析认为,随着贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的缓和,资金可能开始从避险资产流向风险资产,这将对金价 构成持续压力。但中央银行的持续购买和散户的投机活动可能会在一定程度上支撑金价,防止出现更大 幅度的下跌。 热闻推荐 : 国家出手!整顿隐藏式车门把手 ⭐星标华尔街见闻,好内容不错过 ⭐ 据央视新闻报道,中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识,并取得实 ...
黄金回调风险正在上升 地缘局势消息仍需密切关注
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-12 03:05
乌克兰总统泽连斯基5月11日表示,俄罗斯方面关于恢复直接谈判的建议是个好的迹象。他认为真正结 束战争的第一步就是停火,乌克兰期待俄罗斯能够实施全面、持久且可靠的停火,乌方希望俄罗斯从明 天,也就是5月12日开始实施停火,乌克兰愿意进行谈判。 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发帖称:"俄罗斯总统普京并不想与乌克兰达成停火协议,而是希望于 周四在土耳其会面,就结束这场冲突的可能性进行谈判。乌克兰应该立即同意这一点。至少他们将能够 判断是否有可能达成协议,而且如果无法达成协议,欧洲领导人以及美国也会清楚形势究竟如何,并能 够据此采取行动!我开始怀疑乌克兰是否会与普京达成协议,普京正忙于庆祝第二次世界大战的胜利, 而如果没有美利坚合众国,二战根本不可能获胜。现在就举行会谈吧!" 【现货黄金走势分析】 摘要本交易日(5月12日)亚市盘中,现货黄金价格下跌,截止北京时间10:33,最低触及3257.39美元/ 盎司,创近一周新低,今日金价开盘于3324.73美元/盎司,最高上探3324.73美元/盎司,最低触及 3257.39美元/盎司。 本交易日(5月12日)亚市盘中,现货黄金价格下跌,截止北京时间10:33,最低触及32 ...
贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇:中美经贸谈判叠加国内支持政策加码,利好中国市场
news flash· 2025-05-12 01:56
中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰出席 新闻发布会表示,中美达成重要共识,会谈取得实质性进展。贝莱德首席中国经济学家宋宇在接受记者 采访时指出,中美关系取得进展是近期宏观形势改善的一个重要方面,4月数据显示出口韧性比预期强 得多。另一个重要因素是国内经济政策支持加码,上周三部门的一揽子政策发布体现了金融货币政策的 呵护,传递了整体宏观经济政策支持的信号。"这一系列的变化应会提升国内外投资者对中国资产的信 心,利好中国市场。"宋宇说。宋宇提示,黄金价格将受到包括中美经贸谈判的一系列影响,出现调 整。在高度多变的环境中,投资者应避免过度依赖某一策略,否则避险资产或变成"危险资产"。(人民 财讯) ...
金价遭遇“周末风暴”--中美谈判“实质性进展”、印巴停火、俄乌谈判、美伊谈判
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-12 00:14
刚刚过去的这个周末,大事频发,随着中美贸易谈判出现积极进展、印巴等地缘政治冲突缓和,全球避险情绪退潮,黄金跳水。 周一,亚市盘初,现货黄金大幅走低超40美元,盘中最多下跌1.4%,截至发稿报3278美元/盎司。上周黄金上涨2.6%。 风险提示及免责条款 据央视新闻, 当地时间11日凌晨1时36分,俄罗斯总统普京在克里姆林宫举行新闻发布会。普京提议于5月15日在土耳其伊斯坦布 尔恢复俄乌直接谈判。普京称将与土耳其总统通话讨论举办俄乌谈判问题。 普京再次强调,俄罗斯愿意在不设置先决条件的情况下与乌克兰进行直接谈判。此前在伊斯坦布尔举行的俄乌谈判破裂原因不在 俄方,虽然战斗行动还在持续,但是俄方愿意与乌克兰恢复此前中断的谈判。 一度推迟的美伊第四轮谈判也正式启动。据央视报道,当地时间11日从伊朗方面获悉,伊朗和美国关于核问题的第四轮谈判当天 在阿曼首都开始举行。' 黄金跳水同时,周一美股期货大幅走高。美股三大股指期货高开逾1%,纳指期货涨1.5%,标普500指数期货涨1.27%。 分析认为,随着贸易和地缘政治紧张局势的缓和,资金可能开始从避险资产流向风险资产,这将对金价构成持续压力。但中央银 行的持续购买和散户的投 ...
1.34亿人都在抢的避险资产真相:黄金暴涨背后藏着3个扎心现实
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-11 18:43
超市猪肉从15元涨到22元那年,武汉程序员小李把年终奖换成了100克金条。这不是投资,而是保命——过去五年人民币M2增速是金价涨幅的2.3倍。就像 黎巴嫩主妇用金耳环换面粉,我们攒金豆的本质,是在货币洪水中搭建微型诺亚方舟。 央行连续17个月增持黄金的举动更值得警惕。当各国掌舵者都开始往救生艇上搬黄金,普通人该明白:美元体系的裂痕已经蔓延到存折上的数字。存款利率 每降0.1%,就有更多年轻人选择把安全感攥在手心。 95后女生小月每月发薪日固定买入0.5克金豆,她说:"余额宝收益还不够扣手续费,P2P暴雷名单比考勤表还长。"这不是精明,而是绝望——在股市、基 金、理财全线溃败的2025年,看得见摸得着的黄金成了最后的心灵创可贴。 但这份安全感代价昂贵:金饰工费吃掉30%本金,纸黄金要承担汇率波动风险。就像站在暴雨中的行人,我们明知道金豆伞只能遮住头顶,却找不到更好的 避雨处。北京某金店经理透露:"最近三个月,熔掉结婚金饰变现的顾客增加了40%。" 黄金K线图上跳动的数字,记录着我们这代人的集体创伤记忆。要在这场没有赢家的游戏中幸存,请记住三条铁律: 更残酷的是,全球黄金期货净多头头寸在狂欢中减少37%。当你摸着 ...