Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with a slight increase compared to the previous day, maintaining around 12 CNY per gram, driven by market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][6]. Domestic Gold Prices - Lao Miao Gold price increased by 13 CNY per gram, reaching 1248 CNY per gram, marking a new high among gold stores [1]. - Shanghai China Gold price rose by 12 CNY per gram, quoted at 1122 CNY per gram, remaining the lowest among major brands [1]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices is 126 CNY per gram, which is expanding [1]. - Other notable gold prices include: - Liufu Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Chow Tai Fook: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 1171 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Jin Zun Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Lao Feng Xiang: 1245 CNY per gram, up by 15 CNY - Cai Bai: 1170 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY [1][2]. Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also seen a slight increase, with Zhou Tai Fook's platinum jewelry rising by 3 CNY per gram, now at 674 CNY per gram [3]. Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have surged by 9.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands: - Cai Bai: 957.20 CNY per gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 946.50 CNY per gram - Zhou Tai Fook: 955.80 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 964.70 CNY per gram [3][4]. International Gold Prices - The spot gold price reached a historical high of 4217.90 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.97 USD per ounce, with a 1.58% increase [6]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is quoted at 4229.09 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.54% increase [6]. - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [6]. - Analysts predict that the strong upward trend in gold prices may continue, with potential to reach 5000 USD per ounce [6].

#报告 瑞银：如何看待中美贸易紧张局势None (@None):None ...

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have recently surged, breaking historical records, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and political uncertainties prompting safe-haven buying [1][2] - Silver and other precious metals have also experienced significant price fluctuations amid these market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have reached approximately $2,180 per ounce, with an intraday high of $2,185, marking a historical peak [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic assessments being impacted by government shutdowns and slowing job market growth have been interpreted as signals for potential monetary policy easing [2] Group 2: Trade Relations and Political Factors - Ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations continue to affect market sentiment, reinforcing gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - The US government's "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, has entered its final stages, raising concerns about potential changes in trade policy [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Year-to-date, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all recorded substantial gains, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and expectations of rate cuts from major central banks [3]

值得注意的是，受贸易摩擦影响，欧元继续下跌，而日元则维持住了横盘，侧面印证了避险资金的流 入。 但日本由于受公明党退出联合政府导致日本接下来的首相选举出现变数会影响日元走势，原本定于10月 15日召开的临时国会被迫推迟至10月21日。 从当前格局看，本周美元兑日元或维持震荡区间运行，但如果出现不利于高市早苗竞选首相的消息，或 者向不利于高市早苗竞选的方向发展，汇价可能重新向利于日元的方向发展。 周三（10月15日）亚洲时段，美元/日元延续跌势，跌破151.50。随着中美贸易紧张局势升级，美元进 一步走弱，抵消了风险情绪的复苏。所有目光仍集中在美联储的言论和日本政治上，以寻找新的交易激 励。 周末短暂平静后，全球市场再度进入紧张状态。从外汇市场表现来看，这一动态推动避险需求上升，日 本日元与瑞郎获得的避险资金流入多于美元，不过美元相对其他多数货币仍维持强势。 在此背景下，此前市场对美元兑日元的看涨预期不得不搁置，交易者在当前不确定性环境中，更倾向于 依托日元的防御属性进行布局。 能否达成相关协议(或延长关税休战期限)，目前仍有待观察，相关风险正持续上升。 不过，若要推动美元兑日元汇率出现大幅下行，还需日本政治局 ...

市场目前已完全计入美联储10月降息25个基点的预期，并认为12月再次降息的概率高达90%。这种鸽派预期继续支撑无收益资产黄金的吸引力，并为其延续 上行趋势提供依据。尽管美元维持在自8月初以来的高位附近，但并未明显削弱黄金的整体看涨情绪，因此黄金的"上行通道"仍被视为主导方向。 君諾金融技术面分析：回调或成买入机会，金价支撑区域明确 不过，美元多头似乎不愿进行大规模押注，因市场普遍认为美联储（Fed）今年将降息两次。此外，美国政府长期停摆带来的经济不确定性、重新升温的中 美贸易紧张局势以及地缘政治风险，仍为黄金提供避险支撑，这意味着看空黄金的交易者仍需保持谨慎。 市场动态：风险偏好升温下，黄金多头转趋谨慎 美国政府停摆问题仍未解决，僵局已持续进入第三周。自10月1日停摆以来，民主党与共和党仍在互相指责，参议院计划周二再次就预算方案进行表决，但 此前七次投票均未能达到通过所需的60票门槛。 上周五，特朗普再次挑起贸易紧张关系，威胁自11月1日起对所有中国商品征收100%的关税，以报复中国加强稀土出口管制的措施。这标志着全球两大经济 体间的贸易摩擦进一步升级，推高了黄金的避险吸引力。 然而，特朗普在周日于"真相社交 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin is experiencing a decline as investors are avoiding risky assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions and anticipation of a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell [1] - The U.S. and China are set to impose new port fees on each other's ships, following President Trump's recent tariff threats against China [1] - Markets are closely watching for indications regarding the pace of future interest-rate cuts from Powell's upcoming speech at the National Association for Business Economics meeting [1] Group 2 - Recent significant declines in cryptocurrencies indicate a rapid unwinding of risk in a market characterized by automatic margin calls and fragmented liquidity, according to Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly [2]

12 Oct 2025 16:58:43 ET │ 11 pages China Economics US-China Trade Tensions Reemerge CITI'S TAKE Vi e w p o i n t | US-China trade tensions unexpectedly reemerged last week, with both China and the US announcing significant new measures. The planned presidential meeting during the upcoming APEC summit isn't canceled yet, so there is still time and room for negotiation, in our view. Not all the proposed measures are effective immediately, and there are still details to be ironed out for implementation. A hard ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson indicates that if the U.S.-China trade tensions are not resolved by the November deadline, U.S. stocks could face a potential decline of up to 11% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is at a critical point for a correction due to high investor positioning and elevated valuations [1] - The escalation of the trade war last week was unexpected by both the market consensus and Morgan Stanley [1] Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If trade uncertainties or volatility persist until early November, the market correction could exceed most expectations [1] - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to a range of 6027 to 5800 points, representing a decline of 8% to 11% from last Friday's closing price [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation that once trade tensions ease, the economy will gradually recover and continue until 2026 [1] - The argument for economic recovery is strong enough to withstand short-term strategic trade frictions, provided that the situation ultimately calms down [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.77%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.14%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.69% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.21%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.06%, France's CAC40 up by 0.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.54% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.26% to $59.64 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.13% to $63.44 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Season Insights - The upcoming earnings season is critical for the US market, with major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo expected to report strong Q3 results due to a recovery in investment banking and resilient economic conditions [5] - The options market indicates that stock prices of S&P 500 companies are expected to fluctuate by an average of 4.7% post-earnings announcements, reflecting heightened volatility [6] Bull Market Analysis - The current bull market in the US stock market has reached its three-year anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising by 83% since October 12, 2022, adding approximately $28 trillion in market value [7] - Historical data suggests that for bull markets to sustain momentum, they need to broaden their gains beyond a few sectors [7] Strategic Moves in Defense Sector - The US Department of Defense plans to invest up to $1 billion in key minerals to enhance strategic reserves, marking one of the largest expansions of strategic material reserves in years [8] Trade and Investment Strategies - Amid rising US-China trade tensions, Wall Street strategists suggest that investors should consider undervalued defensive value stocks in the Chinese market as a new safe haven, alongside traditional assets like gold and US Treasuries [9] Oil Market Outlook - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast and anticipates a significant narrowing of supply gaps by 2026, as OPEC+ accelerates production increases [10] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle's upcoming AI World Conference is seen as a pivotal moment for the company to validate its substantial market cap increase of approximately $370 billion this year, driven by its cloud computing business [11][12] - Tritax Big Box REIT is acquiring a £1 billion portfolio of UK warehouse assets from Blackstone, with part of the payment made in shares, indicating a strategic move in the real estate sector [12] - Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) has made a significant investment of $46.29 million to acquire 400 bitcoins, reflecting confidence in the cryptocurrency market despite recent volatility [13] - Samsung Electronics is expected to report its highest quarterly profit in three years, driven by rising memory chip prices due to increased server demand [14]

铜周报：宏观扰动再起，铜价高位回调 2025-10-13 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 供给端：自由港印尼矿区因为泥石流事故停产，Grasberg矿区2025年四季度铜产销量预计大幅下降。9月，国内南方粗铜加工费 700元/吨，较上月减少150元/吨。9月进口CIF粗铜加工费85美元/吨，较上月减少10元/吨。截至10月10日，铜精矿现货粗炼费为- 40.70美元/吨，铜精矿现货粗炼费继续维持历史低位。截至10月10日，国内铜精矿港口库存50.9万吨，铜精矿港口库存小幅上升，环 比增加6.04%。9月电解铜产量112.1万吨，同比增加11.62%，环比减少4.31%，9月部分冶炼厂检修导致产量下降，同时废铜政策不确 定性影响下阳极板供应紧张，部分企业减产。 p 需求端：旺季下游消费恢复有限，铜价高位抑制需求。截至10月9日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率下降至43.44%，环比下降 30.34个百分点，同比下降16.99个百分点。国庆假期企业多集中安排生产放假，叠加节后归来首个交易日铜价冲破85000元/ ...