Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with a slight increase compared to the previous day, maintaining around 12 CNY per gram, driven by market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][6]. Domestic Gold Prices - Lao Miao Gold price increased by 13 CNY per gram, reaching 1248 CNY per gram, marking a new high among gold stores [1]. - Shanghai China Gold price rose by 12 CNY per gram, quoted at 1122 CNY per gram, remaining the lowest among major brands [1]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices is 126 CNY per gram, which is expanding [1]. - Other notable gold prices include: - Liufu Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Chow Tai Fook: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 1171 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Jin Zun Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Lao Feng Xiang: 1245 CNY per gram, up by 15 CNY - Cai Bai: 1170 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY [1][2]. Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also seen a slight increase, with Zhou Tai Fook's platinum jewelry rising by 3 CNY per gram, now at 674 CNY per gram [3]. Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have surged by 9.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands: - Cai Bai: 957.20 CNY per gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 946.50 CNY per gram - Zhou Tai Fook: 955.80 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 964.70 CNY per gram [3][4]. International Gold Prices - The spot gold price reached a historical high of 4217.90 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.97 USD per ounce, with a 1.58% increase [6]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is quoted at 4229.09 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.54% increase [6]. - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [6]. - Analysts predict that the strong upward trend in gold prices may continue, with potential to reach 5000 USD per ounce [6].

#报告 瑞银：如何看待中美贸易紧张局势None (@None):None ...

Core Insights - International spot gold prices have recently surged, breaking historical records, primarily driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, ongoing US-China trade tensions, and political uncertainties prompting safe-haven buying [1][2] - Silver and other precious metals have also experienced significant price fluctuations amid these market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices have reached approximately $2,180 per ounce, with an intraday high of $2,185, marking a historical peak [1] - The recent decline in US Treasury yields has reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on economic assessments being impacted by government shutdowns and slowing job market growth have been interpreted as signals for potential monetary policy easing [2] Group 2: Trade Relations and Political Factors - Ongoing tensions in US-China trade relations continue to affect market sentiment, reinforcing gold's role as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] - The US government's "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, has entered its final stages, raising concerns about potential changes in trade policy [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Year-to-date, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have all recorded substantial gains, driven by central bank purchases, increased ETF holdings, and expectations of rate cuts from major central banks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing downward pressure due to escalating US-China trade tensions, leading to a stronger demand for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD has weakened further, offsetting the recovery in risk sentiment, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's statements and Japanese political developments for new trading incentives [1]. - Following a brief period of calm, global markets have re-entered a state of tension, with increased safe-haven demand reflected in the performance of the yen and franc compared to the USD [1]. - The outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate has shifted from bullish to cautious, as traders prefer the defensive attributes of the yen amid current uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - The potential for reaching agreements or extending tariff truce remains uncertain, with rising associated risks [1]. - The political instability in Japan, particularly due to the Komeito party's exit from the coalition government, is expected to impact the yen's performance, with the temporary National Assembly session postponed from October 15 to October 21 [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate faces short-term downside risks, with key support levels identified at 151.40 and 151.15 [3]. - Additional technical support is noted at the 200-hour moving average of 151.27 and the psychological level of 151.00, while any rebound attempts may encounter significant resistance [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant pullback after reaching a new all-time high, currently hovering around $4,100, influenced by a shift in U.S. President Trump's stance on tariffs with China, which boosted market optimism [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, with ongoing partisan disputes preventing a budget agreement, which adds to economic uncertainty [3]. - Trump's recent threats to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods have escalated trade tensions, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - However, Trump's softened rhetoric indicating a desire to avoid economic harm to China has alleviated some market fears, supporting investor confidence while not halting gold's upward momentum [3]. Geopolitical Factors - The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marked by drone attacks and retaliatory strikes, has contributed to gold's record high prices [4]. - Market expectations fully account for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 90% probability of another cut in December, which supports gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [4]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained an upward trend over the past three weeks, breaking through resistance levels of $4,055–$4,060 and surpassing $4,100, confirming a short-term bullish pattern [6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates an overbought condition, suggesting caution for short-term buying [6]. - A significant pullback could find support in the $4,060–$4,055 range; a breach below this level may trigger technical selling, potentially dragging prices down to the psychological level of $4,000 or testing the upward trendline support near $3,985 [6].

Group 1 - Bitcoin is experiencing a decline as investors are avoiding risky assets due to U.S.-China trade tensions and anticipation of a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell [1] - The U.S. and China are set to impose new port fees on each other's ships, following President Trump's recent tariff threats against China [1] - Markets are closely watching for indications regarding the pace of future interest-rate cuts from Powell's upcoming speech at the National Association for Business Economics meeting [1] Group 2 - Recent significant declines in cryptocurrencies indicate a rapid unwinding of risk in a market characterized by automatic margin calls and fragmented liquidity, according to Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly [2]

Summary of US-China Trade Tensions Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the reemergence of trade tensions between the US and China, focusing on recent trade actions and their implications for both economies [1][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Trade Actions**: - China announced new restrictions on rare earth exports, expanding previous measures to include overseas exporters and various technologies [4][11]. - The US responded with a proposed 100% tariff on all products from China, effective November 1, alongside new export limits on critical software and airplane parts [4][11]. 2. **Impact on Trade Relations**: - The potential for a hard trade decoupling is highlighted as undesirable for both nations, with the risk of miscalculation and escalation increasing significantly [7][9]. - China's exports to the US have already seen a decline, with a -33.1% year-over-year drop in August under existing tariffs [11]. 3. **Tariff and Export Control Dynamics**: - The effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is currently around 40.4%, and a return to pre-Geneva tariff levels could have a manageable impact on China's trade and growth [11]. - US software exports to China, valued at approximately $3.2 billion in 2024, represent only 5.8% of total US exports to China, indicating limited macroeconomic relevance [11]. 4. **Future Negotiations**: - The upcoming APEC summit in South Korea (October 31-November 1) is seen as a critical opportunity for negotiation, with key topics including export controls, agricultural purchases, and investment plans [7][17]. - The US Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA tariffs in early November could further complicate negotiations [17]. 5. **Economic Indicators**: - China's total exports grew by 11.1% year-over-year from May to August, despite the decline in exports to the US [11]. - The share of US exports in China's total exports decreased from 14.6% in 2024 to 10.5% in May-August 2024 [11]. Other Important Considerations - The potential for political disruptions, such as the ongoing US government shutdown, could complicate trade negotiations [10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the Chinese Communist Party is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan, which may influence China's economic strategy going forward [17]. Conclusion - The current trade tensions between the US and China present significant risks and opportunities for both economies, with upcoming negotiations and economic indicators likely to shape the future landscape of bilateral trade relations [1][4][7][17].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson indicates that if the U.S.-China trade tensions are not resolved by the November deadline, U.S. stocks could face a potential decline of up to 11% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is at a critical point for a correction due to high investor positioning and elevated valuations [1] - The escalation of the trade war last week was unexpected by both the market consensus and Morgan Stanley [1] Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If trade uncertainties or volatility persist until early November, the market correction could exceed most expectations [1] - In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to a range of 6027 to 5800 points, representing a decline of 8% to 11% from last Friday's closing price [1] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a basic expectation that once trade tensions ease, the economy will gradually recover and continue until 2026 [1] - The argument for economic recovery is strong enough to withstand short-term strategic trade frictions, provided that the situation ultimately calms down [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.77%, S&P 500 futures up by 1.14%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.69% [1] - European indices show mixed results, with Germany's DAX up by 0.21%, UK's FTSE 100 down by 0.06%, France's CAC40 up by 0.23%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.54% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.26% to $59.64 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 1.13% to $63.44 per barrel [3][4] Earnings Season Insights - The upcoming earnings season is critical for the US market, with major banks like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo expected to report strong Q3 results due to a recovery in investment banking and resilient economic conditions [5] - The options market indicates that stock prices of S&P 500 companies are expected to fluctuate by an average of 4.7% post-earnings announcements, reflecting heightened volatility [6] Bull Market Analysis - The current bull market in the US stock market has reached its three-year anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising by 83% since October 12, 2022, adding approximately $28 trillion in market value [7] - Historical data suggests that for bull markets to sustain momentum, they need to broaden their gains beyond a few sectors [7] Strategic Moves in Defense Sector - The US Department of Defense plans to invest up to $1 billion in key minerals to enhance strategic reserves, marking one of the largest expansions of strategic material reserves in years [8] Trade and Investment Strategies - Amid rising US-China trade tensions, Wall Street strategists suggest that investors should consider undervalued defensive value stocks in the Chinese market as a new safe haven, alongside traditional assets like gold and US Treasuries [9] Oil Market Outlook - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast and anticipates a significant narrowing of supply gaps by 2026, as OPEC+ accelerates production increases [10] Company-Specific Developments - Oracle's upcoming AI World Conference is seen as a pivotal moment for the company to validate its substantial market cap increase of approximately $370 billion this year, driven by its cloud computing business [11][12] - Tritax Big Box REIT is acquiring a £1 billion portfolio of UK warehouse assets from Blackstone, with part of the payment made in shares, indicating a strategic move in the real estate sector [12] - Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) has made a significant investment of $46.29 million to acquire 400 bitcoins, reflecting confidence in the cryptocurrency market despite recent volatility [13] - Samsung Electronics is expected to report its highest quarterly profit in three years, driven by rising memory chip prices due to increased server demand [14]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Disturbances Resurface, Copper Prices Correct from Highs [1] Report Date - October 13, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia halted production due to a mudslide accident, and Freeport expects copper production and sales in Q4 2025 to decline significantly. The long - term supply - demand outlook for copper remains optimistic, and the supply tightening will keep the copper market in a tight balance. The impact of the Grasberg shutdown on copper supply - demand and prices may be long - term, and the long - term price center will continue to rise. However, the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions has led to a sharp decline in copper prices. In the domestic market, high copper prices have weakened consumption, but the low inventory provides strong support for copper prices. Copper prices may stabilize after a short - term adjustment and maintain high - level volatility in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [5][7] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production due to a mudslide. In September, the domestic southern crude copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the imported CIF crude copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/ton. As of October 10, the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - 40.70 dollars/ton, remaining at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 50.9 tons, a 6.04% increase. In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 11.62% year - on - year increase but a 4.31% month - on - month decrease due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [5] - **Demand Side**: The recovery of downstream consumption during the peak season was limited, and high copper prices suppressed demand. As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 43.44%, a 30.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 16.99 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventory increased slightly after the holiday. As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory was 10.97 tons, a 15.42% week - on - week increase. As of October 9, domestic social copper inventory was 166,300 tons, a 12.14% week - on - week increase. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, a 0.77% week - on - week decrease, and COMEX copper inventory was 33,950 short tons, a 3.81% week - on - week increase [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Grasberg mine shutdown, copper prices initially rose sharply but then dropped significantly due to Sino - US trade tensions. Long - term supply - demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. It is recommended to reduce long positions to avoid short - term risks [7] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial News - **Macroeconomic Data Overview**: New policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan; China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8; the PBOC increased its gold holdings by 40,000 ounces in September; the US government "shut down" on October 1, affecting economic data release; US September ADP employment decreased by 32,000; US September ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month [15] - **Industry News Overview**: The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association opposes "involution - style" competition in the copper smelting industry; Goldman Sachs lowered its copper supply forecast after the Grasberg mine disruption; Peru's Antamina expects its 2026 copper production to increase to 450,000 tons; Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project will start construction in October; Chile's Codelco's August copper production dropped 25% [16] 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: After the holiday, the spot copper market was quiet. As the weekend approached, the spot purchasing sentiment in the Shanghai copper market picked up, and the premium stabilized. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed slightly, the New York - London copper price difference decreased, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened slightly [19] - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 10, the Shanghai copper futures position was 216,115 lots, a 1.05% increase from before the holiday, and the average daily trading volume was 175,142 lots, a 18.93% increase. As of October 3, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 14,672.88 lots, a 146.77% week - on - week increase. As of September 23, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 43,389 lots, a 3.07% week - on - week increase [25] 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The Grasberg mine in Indonesia stopped production, and Q4 2025 copper production and sales are expected to decline. In September, domestic and imported crude copper processing fees decreased. As of October 10, the copper concentrate port inventory increased slightly. In September, electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month due to smelter overhauls and anode plate supply shortages [34] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of October 9, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises dropped significantly. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. High copper prices and trade policies affected the operating rates of some products [37] - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 10, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 7.99, and the loss on copper spot imports widened slightly. In August, refined copper, scrap copper, and unforged copper and copper product imports increased year - on - year [41] - **Inventory**: As of October 10, SHFE copper inventory increased, domestic social copper inventory increased slightly, LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory increased [48]