Core Viewpoint - General Motors (GM) has halted exports of certain vehicles manufactured in the U.S. to China due to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China [1] Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Despite positive trade consensus reached during high-level economic talks in Geneva, the U.S. has imposed new tariffs on Chinese goods, with an effective rate of 30% this year [1] - The actual tariff rate on U.S. goods exported to China may range between 40% to 50% when considering tariffs imposed during Trump's first term [1] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. remains at its highest level since 1934, nearing 20% [1] Group 2: GM's Financial Performance and Strategy - GM has reported ongoing losses from its joint ventures in China, significantly impacted by tariffs on auto parts and vehicles [1] - The company announced a restructuring of its "Durant Guild," a platform aimed at introducing high-end vehicles to the Chinese market, in response to changing global economic conditions [2] - GM's stock price has seen a decline of over 6% this year under the pressure of Trump's tariff policies, with a slight increase of 0.3% in early trading [2]

Group 1 - China has announced export restrictions on seven key rare earth elements, including dysprosium, terbium, samarium, and gadolinium, requiring exporters to obtain permits from the Ministry of Commerce, with approval processes taking from six weeks to several months [1] - China dominates the rare earth production sector, accounting for approximately 90% of global supply, raising concerns in advanced manufacturing sectors, including shipbuilding [3] - Delays in procurement of rare earth materials are hindering equipment suppliers' delivery schedules to shipyards, potentially affecting the outfitting progress of vessels and leading to delayed deliveries [3] Group 2 - Rare earth elements are critical in various technological fields, including electric and hybrid vehicle batteries, wind turbines, advanced ceramics, displays, lighting, fiber optics, superconductors, and glass polishing [4] - The U.S. is particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to its heavy reliance on China for rare earth compounds and metals, with 70% of imports from China between 2020 and 2023 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes the phased realization of Trump's trade - war risks leading to a decline in safe - haven demand, and an increase in the risk of U.S. economic stagflation causing the expected decline of the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 1.44%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed down 1.52% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade - war risks are phased realized, safe - haven demand declines; the risk of U.S. economic stagflation increases, and the expected real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds decreases [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump's reciprocal tariffs are realized, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent hints at the easing of Sino - U.S. trade tensions. Trump recently stated that he has no intention to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: U.S. consumer confidence in April remains weak, and tariff concerns persist. The one - year inflation expectation of consumers is 6.5%, the highest since 1981, with a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. The long - term inflation expectation is 4.4%. The market currently expects the Fed to cut interest rates next time in June, and the expected total interest - rate cut space in 2025 has returned to around 100 basis points. The U.S. dollar index encounters resistance in its downward movement, and the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds oscillates strongly [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index oscillates downward, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [1][2][4]. 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver has recently increased again, while the iShare silver ETF has reduced its position at a high level. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly recently [4]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and strict stop - losses and take - profits are recommended [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **U.S. Federal Reserve Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the total assets of the Federal Reserve are 67780.29 billion U.S. dollars, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.12%, the real yield of 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds is 2.48, and the U.S. dollar index is 99.57 [6]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as U.S. bond spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, and industrial data are presented, showing different trends of increase and decrease [8]. - **Safe - haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index is 170.08, the VIX index is 25.89, the CRB commodity index is 298.46, and the offshore RMB is 7.2966 [9]. - **Fed Interest - Rate Expectation**: The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels in different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [10].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming launch of Nintendo's new gaming console, Nintendo Switch 2, is overshadowed by concerns over tariffs and potential price increases for both the console and its accessories [1][3][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Pricing - Nintendo plans to globally launch the Nintendo Switch 2 on June 5, with a Japanese price of 49,980 yen (approximately $350) and a U.S. price of $449.99 [3][4]. - The company has already shipped a significant portion of the new console's inventory to the U.S. ahead of the launch, despite initially pausing pre-orders due to tariff concerns [3][4]. - The U.S. market accounts for one-third of Nintendo's revenue, making it a critical area for the company's sales strategy [4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, with Chinese-manufactured electronics facing a 20% basic tariff and certain products facing up to 45% [3][4]. - Analysts have downgraded the annual sales forecast for the Switch 2 from 17 million units to 15 million units, attributing this to the additional costs imposed by tariffs that may be passed on to consumers [4][10]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Implications - The success of the Switch 2 is seen as pivotal for Nintendo's future, especially following the failure of the Wii U, which sold less than 14 million units [9]. - The gaming industry is currently experiencing significant fragmentation in console choices, with various options like high-end consoles (e.g., PS5 Pro), handheld devices, cloud gaming, and PC gaming competing for market share [7][9]. - Despite the challenges, the Switch 2 is still expected to become one of the fastest-selling gaming consoles [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For corn, due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some US farmers are increasing corn planting area. In the domestic market, the remaining grain in the Northeast is almost exhausted, and traders are reluctant to sell. The supply in the North China and Huanghuai regions is also decreasing, while the deep - processing industry's demand is rising. The drought in the wheat - producing areas indirectly boosts the corn price. The planting area of new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to remain stable. The recent corn futures price has increased, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the supply - demand situation is weak, with continuous losses in industry profits, a decline in the开机率 of corn starch enterprises, and a decrease in supply pressure. However, the downstream demand is poor, and the industry inventory remains high. The recent starch futures price has increased with the corn price, and short - term long - position participation is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of 25 - corn starch futures is 2361 yuan/ton, and that of 27 - corn starch futures is 2721 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase. The 9 - 1 corn monthly spread is 85 yuan/ton, and the 7 - 9 corn starch monthly spread is - 79 yuan/ton with a 16 - yuan decrease. The futures positions of active contracts for yellow corn and corn starch are 95602 hands and 1473106 hands respectively. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn and corn starch are - 46511 hands and - 189933 hands respectively. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn and corn starch are 32318 hands and 112229 hands respectively. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 420 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - market - The closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn futures is 484 cents/bushel. The total position of CBOT corn is 1707988 contracts with a decrease of 16007 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is 219843 contracts with a decrease of 14339 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2292.55 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of corn starch in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2590 yuan/ton, 2760 yuan/ton, and 2740 yuan/ton respectively. The import CIF price of corn is 2210.55 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 US dollars/ton. The basis of the corn main contract is - 68.45 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is - 131 yuan/ton. The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 450 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted planting areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are 377.63 million hectares, 33.55 million hectares, 50 million hectares, 294.92 million hectares, and 26.8 million hectares respectively. The predicted yields are 126 million tons, 22.3 million tons, 6.4 million tons, 44.74 million tons, and 0.3 million tons respectively. The corn inventory in southern ports is 162 tons with a 2.5 - ton decrease, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 558.8 tons with a 29.9 - ton decrease [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 526 tons with a 4 - ton decrease. The monthly import volume of corn is 8 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20.35 tons with a 0.93 - ton decrease. The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 tons with a 66.4 - ton decrease [2]. Downstream Situation - The inventory days of sample feed corn is 35.74 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 125.48 tons with a 0.95 - ton decrease. The alcohol enterprise's startup rate is 48.96% with a 4.89% decrease, and the starch enterprise's startup rate is 58.37% with a 4.43% increase [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.18% with a 0.65% increase, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.9% with a 0.28% increase. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options for corn is 10.05% and 10.06% respectively [2]. Industry News - The 2025 US corn planting season has begun. Due to the intensifying Sino - US trade tensions, some farmers are increasing corn planting area. As of April 24, Ukraine has sown 200.1 million hectares of spring grains, accounting for 35% of the planned area [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant shift in China's oil procurement strategy, with a 90% reduction in purchases from the U.S. and a substantial increase in imports from Canada due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3][5] - The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) has facilitated unprecedented access for China to Alberta's oil sands, resulting in a record import of 7.3 million barrels of crude oil from Vancouver to China in March, with expectations for further increases in April [1][3] - The articles suggest that despite the historical ties between the U.S. and Canada, the current geopolitical climate has led Canada to benefit economically from China's increased oil orders, contrasting with the strained U.S.-Canada relations [3][5] Group 2 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney's recent comments labeling China as a geopolitical threat and calling for allied action against it may negatively impact the improving trade relations between China and Canada, prompting China to seek alternative buyers for its energy needs [6][7] - The articles emphasize that China has a diverse range of oil import channels, including significant offers from Russia, which could further diminish Canada's role as a key supplier if political tensions continue [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of China's export data, the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on various industries, and the overall market sentiment regarding trade negotiations between the U.S. and China. It highlights the strong export growth in March and anticipates challenges in the upcoming quarters due to tariff pressures and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. Export Data Analysis - China's March exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 3% in the previous month and a drop of 7.6% in the same month last year. This growth is attributed to a low base effect from last year and a rush to export before potential new tariffs are implemented [3][4]. - The export growth is particularly notable in trade with the EU, where exports rose by 9.7%, and with ASEAN countries, which saw a 5.9% increase [4]. Tariff Implications - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Rutnik indicated that new tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics could be implemented in about a month, which may further impact China's export performance [3]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the export growth will face significant negative feedback in Q2, estimating a year-on-year decline of 5% to 10% due to the anticipated tariffs [4]. Market Reactions - The A-share market showed a collective increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and significant trading activity in sectors like cross-border e-commerce and consumer goods [7]. - Goldman Sachs has lowered its target for major Chinese stock indices, citing unprecedented levels of U.S.-China trade tensions and concerns over a potential global economic recession [9]. Company Performance - Several companies reported significant expected profit growth for Q1, including Jinjiang Shipping with a projected increase of 182% to 194% year-on-year, and Shenzhou Huachuang with an expected increase of 68% to 100% [10]. - Companies like Jinhe Biological indicated that their products exported to the U.S. are currently subject to a 20% tariff, but they plan to adjust prices to cover costs [10]. Investment Sentiment - The article notes a shift in investment sentiment, with sectors like textiles, coal, and non-ferrous metals gaining traction, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors are experiencing declines [20].