Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to show a strong and volatile trend driven by macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Information**: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,133 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan or 1.00%, with a trading volume of 1,239,602 lots, a position of 1,894,007 lots, and a position change of - 36,350 lots. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,345 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 1.21%, with a trading volume of 573,794 lots, a position of 1,461,059 lots, and a position change of - 12,738 lots [1]. - **Spot Price Information**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 20 yuan respectively. Hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 20 yuan, 20 yuan, 20 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet rose by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Information**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 22 yuan to 107 yuan, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 20 yuan to 15 yuan. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 increased by 10 yuan to - 53 yuan, and the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 2 yuan to 13 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy News**: Five - department offices including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Urban Commercial Quality Improvement Action Plan", supporting eligible commercial real estate projects to issue real estate investment trust funds (REITs). The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry, such as promoting the quality improvement of key industries and enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain [2][3]. - **Production and Inventory Data**: In the week of October 23, rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.62 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 8.37 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.27 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 27.41 tons [3]. - **Output Data**: In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 7349 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The daily output was 244.97 million tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel was 746 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [3]. - **Inventory Data**: In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 121 million tons or 8.2% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a modern industrial system and strengthening the foundation of the real economy as a strategic task in China's 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting four key tasks: optimizing traditional industries, nurturing emerging and future industries, promoting high-quality development of the service sector, and constructing a modern infrastructure system [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Industries - The first key task is to optimize and enhance traditional industries, including mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipbuilding, and construction, to strengthen their global competitiveness and position in the international division of labor [1][2][3]. - Traditional industries account for about 80% of the added value in China's manufacturing sector, serving as a fundamental support for the modern industrial system and contributing to stable growth, employment, and income [2][3]. - The focus is on upgrading traditional industries through technological transformation, green transition, and brand internationalization, shifting from a "cost advantage" to a "system advantage" in the global division of labor [3][4]. Group 2: Emerging and Future Industries - The plan aims to cultivate and expand emerging industries, with a focus on creating new pillar industries, particularly in areas such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and the newly added low-altitude economy [5][6]. - The low-altitude economy is highlighted for its potential to activate a trillion-level market space, driven by advancements in technology and broad application scenarios [6][7]. - Future industries will include quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications, which are expected to become new economic growth points [7][8]. Group 3: Service Sector Development - The article discusses the need to promote high-quality development in the service sector, emphasizing the expansion and enhancement of service capabilities, particularly in productive services [9][10]. - The productive service sector currently accounts for about 30% of China's GDP, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed economies [10]. - The plan includes constructing a modern infrastructure system, focusing on the development of new-type infrastructure and enhancing connectivity across regions to support economic growth [11][12].

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "Rebar: Macro Sentiment Drives Up, Steel Prices Show Strong and Volatile Trends; Hot-Rolled Coil: Macro Sentiment Drives Up, Steel Prices Show Strong and Volatile Trends" [1] - The core view is that macro sentiment drives up the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil, and their prices show strong and volatile trends [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Data - Rebar futures contract RB2601 closed at 3,091 yuan/ton yesterday, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.49%. The trading volume was 1,333,406 lots, the open interest was 1,930,357 lots, and the open interest decreased by 22,644 lots [1] - Hot-rolled coil futures contract HC2601 closed at 3,305 yuan/ton yesterday, up 28 yuan/ton or 0.85%. The trading volume was 504,315 lots, the open interest was 1,473,797 lots, and the open interest decreased by 8,933 lots [1] Spot Price Data - Rebar spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3,220 yuan/ton, 3,290 yuan/ton, 3,140 yuan/ton, and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1] - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3,340 yuan/ton, 3,370 yuan/ton, 3,240 yuan/ton, and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, with daily increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,980 yuan/ton yesterday, up 20 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2601 was 129 yuan/ton yesterday, up 19 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2601 was 35 yuan/ton yesterday, up 4 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 was -63 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 was 11 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton [1] - The spread of HC2601 - RB2601 was 214 yuan/ton yesterday, up 15 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2605 - RB2605 was 162 yuan/ton yesterday, up 9 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 23 yuan/ton yesterday, unchanged [1] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry, including promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of key industries and enhancing the independent controllability of the industrial chain [2][4] - According to the weekly data from SteelHome on October 23, in terms of production, rebar production increased by 5.91 million tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 0.62 million tons, and the total production of the five major varieties increased by 8.37 million tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 million tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.27 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 27.41 million tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar demand was 6.26 million tons, hot-rolled coil demand increased by 11.18 million tons, and the total demand increased by 17.32 million tons [4] - In September 2025, China produced 73.49 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, with a daily output of 2.4497 million tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%; produced 66.05 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, with a daily output of 2.2017 million tons/day, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2%; produced 124.21 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a daily output of 4.1403 million tons/day, a month-on-month increase of 4.5%. From January to September, China cumulatively produced 746 million tons of crude steel, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.7335 million tons; produced 646 million tons of pig iron, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with a cumulative daily output of 2.3658 million tons; produced 1.104 billion tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, with a cumulative daily output of 4.0434 million tons [4] - In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.88 million tons, a 1.21 - million - ton increase or 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period; a 3.51 - million - ton increase or 28.4% increase from the beginning of the year; a 60,000 - ton increase or 0.6% increase from the same ten - day period of last month; a 1.15 - million - ton increase or 7.8% increase from the same ten - day period of last year; and a 480,000 - ton decrease or 2.9% decrease from the same ten - day period of the year before last [4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and the trend intensity of hot-rolled coil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with 0 indicating neutral [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company has achieved significant growth in its performance in the first half of 2025, driven by the recovery of the global semiconductor industry and strategic expansion into overseas markets [4][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 534 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.99% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 196 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 74.04% [4]. - The non-recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was 175 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.66% [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - The global semiconductor industry showed signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, which positively impacted the company's performance [5]. - The company's growth is supported by the national strategy to enhance the autonomy and control of the industrial chain [5]. Group 3: International Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, achieving a remarkable growth in overseas revenue, which reached 58 million yuan, up 141.71% year-on-year [6]. - The strategy includes strengthening partnerships in traditional markets such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, while also exploring emerging markets like Vietnam and India [6]. - Investments in overseas market resources and the establishment of localized service systems have significantly enhanced the company's international competitiveness [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved robust revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with operating income reaching 534 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.99%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 196 million yuan, up 74.04% [2] - The global semiconductor industry stabilized and rebounded in the first half of 2025, providing a favorable environment for the company's performance, driven by its technological advantages in analog and mixed-signal testing [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with overseas revenue growing significantly by 141.71% to 58 million yuan in the first half of 2025, establishing a solid foundation for global development [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating income of 534 million yuan and net profit of 196 million yuan, reflecting strong growth rates of 40.99% and 74.04% respectively [2] - The company forecasts net profits of 459 million yuan for 2025, 605 million yuan for 2026, and 763 million yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 56x, 43x, and 34x [3][4] Market Strategy - The company adopts a dual-driven strategy focusing on both domestic and international markets, enhancing its brand's international influence and supply chain resilience [2][3] - The company has made significant progress in emerging markets such as Vietnam and India while deepening cooperation with traditional markets in Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [3] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a summary of key financial metrics, including projected revenue growth rates of 30.47% for 2025 and 30.00% for 2026, alongside a projected EPS of 3.39 yuan for 2025 [4][10] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 12.03% in 2025 to 15.68% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the escalation of US-China tariff disputes has led to a risk-averse sentiment among investors, particularly impacting high-valuation technology sectors in the short term [1][2] - The current market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on domestic policy directions and global manufacturing recovery opportunities, suggesting attention to specific ETFs like the Photovoltaic 50 ETF and Mining ETF [1][2] - The market has shown some preparedness for the tariff path, with investors not falling into extreme panic, indicating limited chances for a significant market crash but also constrained upward recovery potential due to existing valuation levels [1] Group 2 - A-share market is likely to exhibit more structural characteristics, with previously high-performing sectors now becoming vulnerable, suggesting a temporary avoidance of these areas [2] - Future opportunities may arise from domestic policies such as "anti-involution" and high-end manufacturing, as well as sectors related to domestic demand recovery [2] - Overall, the market is expected to consolidate under the shadow of tariffs, shifting the investment focus from external factors to internal policies and fundamentals, seeking structural opportunities amid volatility [2]

Market Performance - A-shares showed strong performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.22% to 3912.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.36% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.09 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous day [1] - The technology sector, particularly photovoltaic, machinery, and communication stocks, led the gains, while defensive assets like gold also saw an increase [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor risk appetite was strong today, with over 4,300 stocks gaining [1] - Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, and growth stocks were favored over value stocks [1] Trade Tensions and Market Outlook - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to a cautious sentiment among investors, particularly affecting high-valuation technology stocks [2][3] - Despite the trade tensions, the market has shown resilience, with investors having anticipated the complexities of US-China relations, limiting panic selling [2] - The trade conflict is viewed as a "lose-lose" situation, which may prevent further deterioration of the situation [2] Structural Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to exhibit more structural characteristics, with a recommendation to avoid previously high-flying sectors linked to overseas tech stocks [3] - Future opportunities may arise from domestic policies, particularly in high-end manufacturing and self-sufficient supply chains [3] Bond Market - The bond market remains neutral, with some signs of improvement, as the yield on 10-year government bonds has dipped below 1.75% [3] - Recent economic data has raised concerns about China's economic outlook, prompting a watchful stance on bond investments [3] Gold Market - Gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold trading above $4,200 per ounce [5] - The medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as the weakening dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7][8] - Short-term geopolitical issues may lead to further spikes in gold prices, but the long-term fundamentals remain strong [8]

每经记者｜王晶 黄婉银 孔泽思 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈俊杰 10月15日~17日，2025湾区半导体产业生态博览会（湾芯展）在深圳会展中心举行。今年湾芯展除设置晶圆制造、先进封装、化合物半导体、芯片设计四 大核心展区外，还设置了AI芯片与边缘计算生态、RISC-V生态、Chiplet与先进封装三个特色展区。展览面积超过6万平方米，参展企业超过600家。 15日上午，《每日经济新闻》记者现场看到，深圳新凯来工业机器有限公司（以下简称新凯来）是最出圈的"人气王"，上午9点前公司展位便吸引了众多 参观者。作为才成立几年的公司，新凯来对外界很多人而言是相对陌生的，但只要说起它国产半导体设备厂商的身份，人们立刻了解其含金量。因为这恰 恰直击国产半导体产业链的痛点——设备是目前发展最为薄弱的环节之一。 新凯来成全场焦点 "为了看新凯来，我们特地赶早来的""你们的光刻机在哪里？""我们想跟公司聊一下投资"。上午9点不到，新凯来展台前已人头攒动，有人举着手机拍 照，有人边参观产品边讨论。嘈杂的现场里，"国产设备的新希望"是大家谈论最多的话题。 公开信息显示，新凯来2022年6月成立于深圳市龙岗区平湖街道，其母公司为成立于202 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.62% to close at 3865.23 points, with a daily high of 3918.44 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.54% to 12895.11 points, reaching a high of 13405.51 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 3.99% to 2955.98 points, with a peak of 3124.83 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -1.9% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was Penghua SSE 180 ETF with a return of 3.02% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was Huaxia CSI Bank ETF with a return of 2.62% [2] - The highest performing strategy index ETF was Xinhua CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF with a return of 2.85% [2] - The highest performing theme index ETF was Penghua CSI Liquor ETF with a return of 2.77% [2] ETF Performance Rankings - The top three ETFs by return were: - Penghua SSE 180 ETF (3.02%) - Xinhua CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF (2.85%) - Penghua CSI Liquor ETF (2.77%) [4] - The top three ETFs by decline were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (-6.85%) - Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (-6.81%) - E Fund CSI Semiconductor Materials Equipment Theme ETF (-6.74%) [4] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by inflow were: - Huabao CSI Bank ETF (14.1 billion) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (6.8 billion) - Huaxia National Index Semiconductor Chip ETF (6.71 billion) [6] - The top three ETFs by outflow were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (19.42 billion) - Southern CSI A500 ETF (8.67 billion) - Fuguo CSI A500 ETF (7.4 billion) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (8.88 billion) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (6.17 billion) - Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (5.83 billion) [8] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (2.19 billion) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (40.57 million) - Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (33.83 million) [8] Industry Insights - Huachuang Securities indicates that domestic lithography machines are expected to enter a phase of accelerated commercialization, driven by policy support and technological advancements [9] - First Capital Securities states that U.S. semiconductor export controls will accelerate the self-sufficiency of the domestic industry chain, promoting domestic innovation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent export control announcements by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs of China focus on rare earths, lithium batteries, and graphite materials, which have significant implications for global supply chains and industries [1][2]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The announcements include multiple export control decisions on rare earths and related materials, marking the strictest measures to date [2]. - The measures aim to close loopholes in rare earth transshipment and smuggling, and are closely related to the recent systematic suppression of China's semiconductor industry by the U.S. [2][6]. Group 2: U.S. Semiconductor Restrictions - The U.S. has escalated its restrictions on China's semiconductor industry, with new rules affecting foreign subsidiaries of companies with over 50% U.S. ownership [3]. - A report from the U.S. House of Representatives highlights that China imported semiconductor manufacturing equipment worth $38 billion from U.S. and allied companies last year, indicating the strategic importance of these imports for Chinese firms like SMIC and Yangtze Memory Technologies [4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths are critical raw materials for semiconductor production, and tightening their export could severely impact U.S. sectors reliant on high-performance chips, including AI and military applications [6][8]. - The strategy of using rare earth exports as leverage against U.S. semiconductor restrictions has previously yielded positive results for China, demonstrating the strategic value of these resources in the U.S.-China rivalry [6][8]. Group 4: Long-term Solutions - While immediate responses to U.S. restrictions are necessary, the long-term solution lies in accelerating domestic production capabilities for semiconductor equipment [8][10]. - Achieving self-sufficiency in the semiconductor supply chain is essential for China to mitigate the impact of unilateral sanctions and maintain competitive parity with the U.S. [10].