Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of China's "anti-involution" governance is becoming evident, as indicated by the stabilization of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and improvements in consumer prices, driven by market competition optimization, increased demand in emerging industries, and consumption-boosting policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In August, the PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, remaining flat month-on-month and showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9%, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Changes - The optimization of market competition order has been a key factor, with government efforts to promote industry self-discipline and curb disorderly competition, leading to gradual improvements in key industries [1][2]. - Demand in emerging industries is on the rise, supported by the ongoing adjustment of China's economic structure towards high-end and intelligent development, which is expanding market demand and driving price increases in related sectors [1][2]. - Consumption-boosting policies have shown positive effects, with initiatives like the trade-in program for consumer goods enhancing demand for upgraded products, contributing to price increases in certain industries [1][2]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The government plans to continue expanding domestic demand and implementing consumption-boosting actions, alongside effective investment expansion and the promotion of a unified national market [2][3]. - Upcoming holidays, such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are expected to further stimulate consumer spending, contributing to the overall expansion and quality improvement of consumption [2].

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson, Fu Linghui, announced that recent efforts to promote industry self-discipline and resist disorderly competition have shown gradual effects, particularly in key industries [1] Group 1: Industry Price Changes - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling industries, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as new energy vehicle manufacturing, saw year-on-year reductions narrow by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The downward impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that recent industry self-regulation measures have shown positive effects, leading to a reduction in price declines in certain sectors [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In August, the ex-factory prices in coal processing, black metal smelting and rolling, and coal mining and washing industries narrowed their decline by 3.2% to 10.3% compared to the previous month [1] - The price decline in photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing, as well as in new energy vehicle manufacturing, decreased year-on-year by 2.8% and 0.6% respectively [1] - The impact of these five industries on the year-on-year Producer Price Index (PPI) has reduced by approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent measures to regulate disorderly competition among enterprises have positively impacted production prices in various industries, which is expected to help the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recover [1] Industry Summary - The government has been actively promoting industry self-discipline and capacity governance in key sectors, with gradual effects becoming evident [1] - In August, the year-on-year decline in factory prices for industries such as coal, steel, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics has narrowed, leading to a reduced downward impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) compared to the previous month [1] - These changes are conducive to the return of price operations to a reasonable range [1]

Group 1 - The central government's commitment to address capacity issues and optimize market competition order is evident, aiming to solidify the foundation for high-quality industrial development [1] - The core of capacity issues lies in supply-demand imbalance, necessitating efforts from both supply and demand sides to improve effective demand and promote supply-demand matching [1] - The "anti-involution" approach through legal and market-based means is crucial for improving supply-demand dynamics and establishing a fair competition order, which will stimulate innovation [1] Group 2 - In the automotive industry, "involutionary" competition has intensified this year, primarily through price wars, leading to reduced reasonable profits for upstream and downstream enterprises and potential quality risks [2] - Traditional industries should focus on enhancing technical standards and strictly controlling new capacity to avoid low-end capacity homogenization, while new industries must prevent blind expansion to mitigate investment waste [2] - A comprehensive approach to address "involutionary" competition requires a combination of effective government action and market mechanisms, promoting fair competition and encouraging enterprises to shift from price competition to value competition [3]

Group 1 - The central government is determined to address capacity issues and optimize market competition order, which will support high-quality industrial development [1] - The core of capacity issues lies in supply and demand imbalance, necessitating efforts on both supply-side control and demand-side expansion to improve supply-demand matching [1] - "Anti-involution" through legal and market-based means will help improve supply-demand conditions and establish a fair competition order, stimulating innovation [1] Group 2 - In the automotive industry, "involution" competition has intensified this year, leading to reduced reasonable profits for upstream and downstream enterprises and potential quality risks [2] - Traditional industries should focus on improving technical standards and controlling new capacity to avoid low-end capacity homogenization [2] - New industries must prevent blind expansion and investment waste by monitoring technology iteration cycles and adjusting industrial policy guidance [2] Group 3 - Effective governance of "involution" competition requires a combination of proactive government action and effective market mechanisms [3] - The government should regulate price behaviors to avoid vicious price competition and maintain a fair market environment [3] - Addressing "involution" competition is a systematic project crucial for industrial health and high-quality economic development, requiring collaboration between government and market [3]

Market Overview - Major indices experienced gains over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.91% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 10.00% [2] - The trading volume significantly decreased, with a total of 11.26 trillion yuan traded, averaging 2.25 trillion yuan per day, a reduction of 414.68 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [2] - Among the sectors, only the banking industry saw a decline, while the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors led the gains [2] Economic Data - In August, exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from July, attributed to a high base last year and prior "export rush" effects [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, influenced by sufficient pork supply and energy price pressures [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month stabilization and a narrowing year-on-year decline for the first time since March, driven by a lower base and "anti-involution" measures [2] Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a key task for fiscal policy, focusing on consumer stimulation and public service investments [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the need for capacity governance in key industries and addressing irrational competition in its report on economic development plans [3] Investment Strategy - The policy direction from the Political Bureau meeting aims to consolidate the recovery of the capital market, alleviating investor concerns about market downturn risks [4] - Short-term market themes remain active, but their sustainability needs to be observed, with structural performance expected to outperform the overall market as valuations recover [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the TMT sector are anticipated due to advancements in domestic computing power and the "AI+" initiative [4] - The power equipment and non-ferrous metals industries may benefit from unexpected demand for energy storage and breakthroughs in solid-state battery production [4] - The financial sector is expected to see investment opportunities as the capital market stabilizes [4]

早盘速递 2025/9/11 5、期货日报记者求证获悉，宁德时代控股子公司宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司召开会议，给公司内部的办证小组下达了任务目 标，争取能够在今年11月完成枧下窝的复产工作。但能否如期达成复产目标，尚未有定论，后续或根据实际推进情况进行灵活 调整。 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、焦煤、原油、塑料 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 2.77% 贵金属, 30.15% 油脂油料, 10.87% 有色 软商品, 2.40% , 20.43% 煤焦钢矿, 14.41% 能源, 2.90% 化工, 12.05% 谷物, 1.07% 农副产品, 2.95% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 ( ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 11 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压回落 核心观点 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.03%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应重回高位，而需求表现强劲，基本面表现平稳，支撑价格 相对偏强运行，但需求改善力度有待跟踪，高供应下一旦需求走弱则产 业矛盾仍易累积，届时价格再度承压下行，重点关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走弱，录得 0.81%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石需求韧性尚可，且供应短期收缩，基本面表现平稳，继续支 撑矿价高位偏强震荡运行，但估值相对偏高，上行空间谨慎乐观，关注 钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.51%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 供需双弱局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱，产业矛盾持续累积，钢价易承 压运行，相对利好则是成本 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the economic policy promotion in the second half of the year, including the mid - level event overview of production and service industries, and the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream situations of the industry. It also provides price index data of key industries [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will carry out a 3 - month special rectification action on network chaos in the automotive industry to improve the handling efficiency of network chaos of automotive enterprises [1]. - **Service Industry**: The National Development and Reform Commission will maintain policy continuity and stability, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. It will implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, evaluate policy implementation, and promote capacity governance in key industries [1]. 2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices are continuously declining, and egg prices are continuously rising [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester start - up rate is rising, and the coal consumption of power plants is increasing [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities are slightly rising, and the number of international flights is decreasing [4]. 3. Key Industry Price Indexes | Industry | Index Name | Price on 9/10 | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price of corn | 2308.6 yuan/ton | 0.25% | | | Spot price of eggs | 7.2 yuan/kg | 10.51% | | | Spot price of palm oil | 9380.0 yuan/ton | - 1.18% | | | Spot price of cotton | 15293.8 yuan/ton | - 1.08% | | | Average wholesale price of pork | 19.9 yuan/kg | - 0.65% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price of copper | 79776.7 yuan/ton | - 0.73% | | | Spot price of zinc | 22080.0 yuan/ton | - 0.63% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 20693.3 yuan/ton | - 0.24% | | | Spot price of nickel | 121766.7 yuan/ton | - 0.30% | | | Spot price of aluminum | 16781.3 yuan/ton | - 0.11% | | | Spot price of rebar | 3139.5 yuan/ton | - 0.48% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price of iron ore | 800.1 yuan/ton | 1.32% | | | Spot price of wire rod | 3315.0 yuan/ton | - 0.23% | | | Spot price of glass | 14.3 yuan/square meter | 2.67% | | Non - metals | Spot price of natural rubber | 15150.0 yuan/ton | 0.66% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 796.6 | - 0.72% | | | Spot price of WTI crude oil | 62.6 dollars/barrel | - 4.51% | | Energy | Spot price of Brent crude oil | 66.4 dollars/barrel | - 3.98% | | | Spot price of liquefied natural gas | 3886.0 yuan/ton | - 0.15% | | | Coal price of coal | 777.0 yuan/ton | - 0.64% | | | Spot price of PTA | 4649.2 yuan/ton | - 2.11% | | Chemical | Spot price of polyethylene | 7391.7 yuan/ton | - 0.45% | | | Spot price of urea | 1693.8 yuan/ton | - 1.09% | | | Spot price of soda ash | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index of the whole country | 130.6 | 0.97% | | | Building materials comprehensive index | 113.2 points | 0.04% | | | Concrete price index of the national index | 92.6 points | - 0.28% | [38]