Report Title Asphalt: Factory Inventory Declines, Price Center Oscillates Strongly with Oil Report Date July 15, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The asphalt market shows that the factory inventory has declined, and the price center oscillates strongly with the oil price. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: - BU2508 closed at 3,681 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 1.08%, and 3,679 yuan/ton in the night session with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 3,977 lots, an increase of 1,660 lots, and the open interest was 12,525 lots, a decrease of 1,566 lots [1]. - BU2509 closed at 3,646 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.21%, and 3,649 yuan/ton in the night session with an increase of 0.08%. The trading volume was 151,549 lots, a decrease of 7,524 lots, and the open interest was 231,231 lots, an increase of 13,867 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: - The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 82,300 lots yesterday with no change [1]. - The basis (Shandong - 08) was 129 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 35 yuan/ton yesterday, an increase of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - The Shandong - South China spread and the East China - South China spread remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton and 170 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,810 yuan/ton yesterday with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton yesterday with no change [1]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to July 10. The factory inventory in the East China region decreased the most due to the intermittent shutdown of the main refineries in the region, resulting in a decline in supply and a decrease in inventory driven by good ship shipments after the decline in ship prices [13]. - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.822 million tons, an increase of 0.2% compared to July 10. The social inventory in the southwest and Shandong regions increased significantly. In the southwest region, it was mainly due to the recent arrival of ships for warehousing, and in the Shandong region, it was mainly due to the transfer of some factory inventory resources to social warehouses [13]. - In the week from July 8 to July 14, 2025, according to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the weekly total production of domestic asphalt was 568,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons (0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 92,000 tons (19.3%). The cumulative production from January to July was 15.946 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.046 million tons (7.0%) [13]. - The refinery operating rate was 34.60% on July 14, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points compared to July 10, and the refinery inventory rate was 27.00%, a decrease of 1.87 percentage points compared to July 10 [1]. 3.2 Market Information - The price of asphalt follows the rapid decline of oil prices, and the regional spot price spread remains stable [10]. - The total open interest of the asphalt index and the Shandong basis strengthened and then partially converged [8].

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is requesting independent oil production analysis for OPEC, suggesting a shift from "production" to "market supply" metrics for June data, potentially lowering reported production by approximately 400,000 barrels per day [2] Group 1: Saudi Arabia's Oil Production - Saudi Arabia's June oil production data may be adjusted to align with OPEC+ quotas, reflecting a significant change in reporting standards [2] - The proposed "market supply" metric excludes inventory changes, making it more aligned with the OPEC+ agreement of 9.37 million barrels per day [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a surge in Saudi production to 9.8 million barrels per day in June, exceeding OPEC+ quotas [2] Group 2: Impact on Oil Prices and Market Dynamics - Fluctuations in Saudi production directly influence global oil prices, especially as the country leads OPEC+ in supply restoration [2] - Increased shipping volumes through the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline indicate heightened activity due to geopolitical tensions, with an additional 5 million barrels shipped in June [3] - Saudi Aramco's strategic international delivery points in various countries may facilitate adjustments in reported supply metrics [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The HC2510 contract fluctuated on Monday. The overall hot - rolled coil production remains high, terminal demand is resilient, but the cost support weakens as coal and coke prices decline in the late trading. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows DIFF and DEA adjusting downwards with shrinking red bars. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,123 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the position volume is 1,525,709 lots, up 999 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is 78,901 lots, down 7,318 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the HC daily warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 67,543 tons, down 1,192 tons; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread is 126 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,110 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The HC main contract basis is 107 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 713 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The domestic iron ore port inventory is 13,930.23 million tons, up 36.07 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 73.81 million tons, down 7.31 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 627.51 million tons, down 6.50 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 77.26 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.85%, up 0.04%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 327.24 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 83.59%, up 0.45%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 78.22 million tons, up 1.70 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 262.94 million tons, down 0.71 million tons. The domestic crude steel production is 8,655 million tons, up 53 million tons; the steel net export volume is 1,010 million tons, up 16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 2.6485 million vehicles, up 0.0298 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales is 2.6863 million vehicles, up 0.0967 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 29.48 million units, down 1.353 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 8.51 million units, up 0.331 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 9.412 million units, down 0.239 million units. Last week, the number of steel mill maintenance and复产 production lines increased compared with the previous week. 9 provinces had steel mills with production line maintenance, with 9 maintenance lines (2 more than the previous week) and 8复产 lines (3 more than the previous week). The production affected by production line maintenance is estimated to be 18.03 million tons this week [2]. Industry News - China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's interests in exchange for so - called tariff reductions. Canada will impose a 50% tariff on steel products imported from countries without a free - trade agreement with Ottawa that exceed the quota [2].

Group 1 - In May, Argentina's automobile sales reached 58,952 units [1] - The automobile export volume in May was 26,346 units [1] - The automobile production in May totaled 48,109 units [1]

Core Insights - The report anticipates Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 to be 2.01 million tons, reflecting a 7.74% increase from April [1] - Production is expected to reach 1.74 million tons, marking a 3% rise compared to April [1] - Export volume is projected at 1.3 million tons, showing a significant increase of 17.9% from the previous month [1]

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（5月6日） 1. 据上海航运交易所数据，截至2025年5月5日，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数（欧洲航线）报1379.07 点，与上期相比跌3.5%。 4. 印尼能源部官员Edi Wibowo周一表示，截至4月24日，印尼今年生物柴油消费量为444万升。在1月至 3月期间，生物柴油消费量为320万升。印尼今年生物柴油的棕榈油强制掺混比例为40%，高于去年的 35%。 5. 据CONAB，截至5月3日，2024/25年度巴西大豆收割率为97.7%，上周为94.8%，去年同期为94.3%， 五年均值为96.3%。 6. 美国农业部（USDA）周二凌晨公布的每周作物生长报告显示，截至5月4日当周，美国大豆种植率为 30%，此前市场预期为31%，此前一周为18%，去年同期为24%，五年均值为23%；出苗率为7%，上年 同期为8%，五年均值为5%。 7. 印度矿业部表示，2024-25财年原铝产量从2023-24财年的41.6万吨增至42万吨；2024-25财年精炼铜产 量环比增长12.6%，从2023-24财年的50.9万吨增至57.3万吨。 2. 据Mysteel，2025年04月2 ...