Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the 7.20 mark for the first time since November 2024, driven by reduced risk sentiment and market optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations [2][5]. Exchange Rate Movement - Since reaching a low of 7.4, the offshore RMB has appreciated nearly 2.7% from April 8 to the present [2]. - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD rate peaked at 7.1892 before slightly retreating to around 7.2041 by the end of the day [2]. - The recent surge began on April 30, with the offshore RMB rising from 7.27 to below 7.20, marking a 1% increase [2]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market expectations of progress in US-China trade talks and reduced tensions have contributed to the RMB's strength [5]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted the US's willingness to negotiate on tariffs, which has been positively received by the market [5]. - A crowded long position in the USD and changing market dynamics regarding US economic conditions have triggered a new wave of USD selling [5]. Regional Currency Trends - The RMB's rise coincides with appreciation in other Asia-Pacific currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, South Korean Won, and Thai Baht, all gaining over 1% against the USD [6]. - The Hong Kong Dollar has also strengthened, reaching its trading limit, influenced by the strong performance of the RMB and capital inflows from mainland China [6][7]. Capital Flows and Market Dynamics - Significant capital inflows from mainland China into Hong Kong have been observed, with net purchases through the Stock Connect channels reaching 570.9 billion CNY in 2025 [7]. - The upcoming dividend payments from Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, totaling 36.1 billion USD, are expected to increase demand for the Hong Kong Dollar [7]. Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain volatile in the second quarter but may stabilize over the year due to potential macroeconomic stimulus measures from the Chinese government [8]. - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement further monetary easing, including possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [8]. - The future trajectory of the RMB will depend on the progress of US-China negotiations and the potential recovery of Chinese exports [8][9].

Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何解读近期人民币汇率走势 ？ A： 4月份以来，人民币汇率呈现出对美元汇率稳定，对主要非美货币贬值的特征。 截止4月23日， 今年以来在岸人民币兑美元持平，但根据Wind以即期汇率估算的CFETS人民币汇率指数，今年以来 人民币对一篮子货币贬值幅度5.2%，今年以来最大贬值幅度已达5.7%。 人民币兑美元维持稳定，兑其他一篮子货币被动贬值是主动的政策选择的结果。 我们注意到，今年1 月末至3月中旬期间，央行始终将美元中间价设定在7.17附近。自3月开始中间价开始缓慢上移（趋向 于贬值），特别是在4月3日关税战升级后，央行进一步主动引导中间价上移，扩大人民币汇率弹性。 这样的结果是，在美元对其他主要货币快速贬值期间，人民币对美元汇率基本稳定，但是对欧元、日 元等主要货币贬值幅度超过10%。在我们看来，央行意在通过人民币对一篮子货币的贬值释放国内出 口压力。特别是在中美双边贸易接近冻结的情况下，人民币对欧元和日元贬值有助于增强中国出口竞 争力，起到汇率自动稳定器的作用。类似的情况也出现在首轮中美贸易战期间，2018年6-10月人民币 对一篮子货币最大贬值幅度6.2%，2019年5-10月人 ...