哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析美欧筑贸易高墙围堵光伏，中国却实现128国出口增长 的逆势突围之路。 2025年的全球光伏市场，一边是美欧密集出台的限制政策，关税加征、本土制造比例要求层层加码；另 一边却是中国光伏出口的强势逆袭。数据显示，2025年1到10月，中国光伏产品出口覆盖超128个国家和 地区，其中50个国家出口额实现翻倍增长。 这场看似矛盾的市场变局背后，既有新兴市场的快速崛起，也有中国光伏企业全球化布局的主动调整。 商务部最新表态也印证了这一行业趋势，当前光伏行业贸易摩擦呈现发达国家限制强化、新兴国家摩擦 抬头的特点，但中国光伏产业的高质量发展步伐并未受阻。 美欧印政策围堵：传统市场门槛持续抬高 2025年以来，全球主要光伏市场的政策限制进入密集落地期。4月，美国宣布对柬埔寨、越南、泰国和 马来西亚四国进口的太阳能产品征收新关税，理由是这些国家存在低价倾销行为。 而这四个国家的光伏产能中，大量是中国头部企业布局的全产业链基地，覆盖硅片、电池片到组件的完 整生产环节。 美国的限制还不止于此，据中国经营报12月18日报道，美国商务部正紧盯中国企业海外投资调整，除了 加征关税，还对印度、印度 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - The restructuring of the overseas supply chain presents opportunities for domestic non-woven fabric companies, as they can benefit from the pressures faced by major brands like Kimberly-Clark and Procter & Gamble, which are experiencing declining revenues in their core categories [4][5]. - The performance of leading non-woven fabric companies such as Yanjiang, Jieya, and Nuobang shows significant revenue growth, with year-on-year increases of 17%, 107%, and 23% respectively in Q3 2025, indicating a recovery trend driven by improved order structures and increased overseas orders [11][16]. - The shift in the global disposable hygiene products industry from a focus on market share to efficiency across the supply chain is evident, as brands are now prioritizing cost efficiency and localized responses to maintain profitability in a challenging market environment [5][10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Pressure on Overseas Giants and Supply Chain Restructuring - Major brands like Kimberly-Clark are facing revenue declines in their baby and feminine care segments, with Q3 2025 revenues of approximately $5.09 billion and $1.29 billion, down 4.1% and 2.4% year-on-year respectively [5]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with brands needing to enhance supply chain efficiency and local responsiveness to sustain profits amid slowing growth in mature markets [9][10]. Section 2: Recovery of Non-Woven Fabric Companies - Leading non-woven fabric companies are showing a clear recovery, with significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend following a period of inventory destocking and intensified competition [11][15]. - Profitability is also improving, with Yanjiang, Jieya, and Nuobang reporting net profit growth of 209%, 336%, and 21% respectively in Q3 2025, driven by enhanced product structures and increased overseas orders [16][20]. Section 3: Overseas Capacity Layout and Localization of Supply - Companies like Yanjiang are establishing production capacities in regions like Egypt and the U.S. to enhance delivery efficiency and better serve local markets, with plans to achieve significant sales targets by 2027 [21][22]. - The overseas production strategy is aligned with the supply chain adjustments of downstream brands, indicating a broader trend towards localized manufacturing to improve competitiveness and responsiveness to market demands [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully transitioned from a traditional e-commerce platform to a comprehensive industrial procurement service, leveraging AI and supply chain innovations to revolutionize the manufacturing procurement system in China [1][3][30] Group 1: Company Overview - The company, known for its e-commerce operations, has launched its industrial division, raising nearly HKD 2.8 billion upon its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The industrial division evolved from the company's enterprise business, which initially focused on purchasing office supplies [3] Group 2: Innovations and Services - The company identified inefficiencies in industrial procurement, leading to the creation of a standardized product library called "Mercator," which simplifies the purchasing process by unifying non-standard products [5][7] - The introduction of the JoyIndustrial AI model has significantly accelerated the standardization process, achieving in one year what would typically take five years [7] - The company has transformed its role from merely a product supplier to a "procurement hospital," offering in-depth services such as system diagnostics and material coding [10] Group 3: International Expansion - The company is expanding its operations internationally, with plans to open its first overseas physical store in Thailand, capitalizing on the global manufacturing trend [11][13] - It aims to replicate its successful domestic supply chain model in international markets, addressing the high costs associated with MRO procurement [13][15] Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - The company has captured 4.1% of the MRO market share in 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [23] - Its ambition is to become the "operating system" for industrial procurement, providing comprehensive services from diagnostics to continuous optimization [23][30] - The company is also venturing into the BOM (Bill of Materials) sector, particularly in emerging fields like robotics and renewable energy, to capitalize on future market growth [25][26] Group 5: Industry Impact - The company's efforts address the inefficiencies in China's production service sector, aiming to enhance the overall procurement process and strengthen the national industrial chain [28][30] - The listing of the industrial division marks a significant milestone in the evolution of China's industrial internet, emphasizing the importance of technology and industry understanding in improving efficiency [30]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing pressure on Southeast Asian low-cost export countries due to US tariff policies amid US-China structural competition, prompting a reevaluation of global supply chain dynamics [1][3] - The US has imposed additional tariffs of up to 40% on goods transiting through Southeast Asia, directly impacting industries reliant on the "China supply chain" model, such as textiles in Vietnam and furniture in Indonesia [3] - Southeast Asian countries are adopting differentiated strategies in response to US pressures, with Vietnam utilizing "bilateral accumulation" rules and Malaysia tightening origin certificate issuance [3][4] Group 2 - Despite external pressures, the supply chain integration between China and ASEAN shows resilience and an upgrading trend, with investments from Chinese companies like SAIC-GM Wuling and BYD in Indonesia and Thailand [4][6] - The trade volume between China and ASEAN is projected to exceed $597 billion in 2024, accounting for 16.7% of China's total foreign trade, with emerging fields like digital and green economies driving future growth [6] - The "Resilient Supply Chain Initiative" by the US aims to redirect military suppliers to "trusted partners," with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia seen as key nodes due to their geographical and industrial advantages [9] Group 3 - The US's "de-China" supply chain strategy faces challenges, as local production in Southeast Asia remains cost-effective, evidenced by an 18% drop in import inquiries for Chinese intermediate products by Q2 2025 [7] - China is leveraging "industrial chain leapfrogging" to capture high-value segments in sectors like semiconductors and AI, showcasing its commitment to innovation and technological advancement [10] - Southeast Asian nations are actively seeking diversified cooperation paths, with Indonesia and Malaysia enhancing ties with China, Japan, and South Korea while pursuing local investments in sectors like semiconductors [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases by major PC manufacturers Lenovo, Dell, and HP, with rises of 15%-20%, are primarily driven by unprecedented surges in memory chip prices, specifically DRAM and NAND flash [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Drivers - The operating profit margins for Lenovo, HP, and Dell are notably low, with Lenovo at 8.3%, and HP and Dell at 5.8% and 6% respectively, making them vulnerable to cost fluctuations in memory components, which account for 15%-18% of total costs [2]. - DRAM prices have surged by 170% year-on-year, with forecasts indicating further increases of 5%-20% for DRAM and NAND contracts by Q4 2025 [2][4]. - The demand for high-performance memory products driven by the AI industry has led to a structural change in the semiconductor supply chain, causing a significant supply shortage for traditional PC memory components [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The collective price increase provides a rare opportunity for PC giants to raise prices without losing market share, as the entire industry faces similar cost pressures [3][7]. - The transition from a volume-driven to a profit-centered business model is seen as a positive development by capital markets, alleviating concerns about future profitability [3][9]. - The end of Windows 10 support and the rising demand for AI-capable PCs are creating a rigid replacement demand, allowing manufacturers to pass on costs to business customers [5][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Lenovo's proactive inventory management, with a 50% higher stock of critical components, positions it favorably to navigate the supply shortages expected through 2026 [8]. - The price increases are expected to reshape the competitive rules in the PC industry, moving the focus from scale to profit quality, with gross margin stability becoming a key competitive indicator [9][10]. - The price hikes are not merely reactive but are strategic moves to establish pricing discipline and enhance pricing power within the industry [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase by major PC manufacturers Lenovo, Dell, and HP, with increases of 15%-20%, is primarily driven by unprecedented rises in DRAM and NAND flash memory prices, which has led to warnings from Wall Street regarding future profits and subsequent stock downgrades for these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Price Increase Reasons - The price increase is a response to a significant rise in memory chip costs, with DRAM prices soaring by 170% year-on-year, and predictions of further increases of 5%-20% for DRAM and NAND contracts by Q4 2025 [2][4]. - The cost of memory components constitutes 15%-18% of the total cost for PC manufacturers, making them highly sensitive to price fluctuations [2][4]. - The current memory price surge is attributed to a structural change in the semiconductor supply chain driven by the explosion of the AI industry, leading to a "super cycle" in memory demand [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The collective price increase provides a rare opportunity for PC giants to raise prices without losing market share, as all major players face similar cost pressures [3][7]. - The demand from commercial clients, who prioritize reliability and total cost of ownership over initial purchase price, allows manufacturers to pass on costs more effectively [7][8]. - The end of support for Windows 10 and the rising demand for AI-capable PCs create a rigid replacement demand, further supporting the price increases [5][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The price increase marks a shift in the PC industry from a volume-driven model to a profit-centered approach, with a focus on maintaining gross margins [9][10]. - Companies like Lenovo, with a market share exceeding 25%, have positioned themselves advantageously by maintaining higher inventory levels and securing favorable contracts with suppliers [8][11]. - The price hikes are seen as a strategic move to establish pricing discipline and enhance pricing power, which is crucial for long-term profitability [10][11]. Group 4: Future Implications - The current price adjustments are expected to lead to a structural shift in the PC market, with average selling prices likely to rise rather than fall as seen in the past [10][11]. - Stable profits from core PC operations will provide the necessary cash flow for companies to transition towards higher-growth service and solution-oriented business models [11].

前言：商超行业变革的背景与挑战 作为一名供应商和行业研究者，我和商超打了快30年的交道，受益于中国商超行业的黄金发展期，我曾 服务的诸多品牌均顺势崛起，业绩亮眼。然而随着消费者购买行为的迭代升级，商业生态开始剧烈重构 —— 仿佛一夜之间，我们曾引以为傲、支撑企业稳健前行的大商超（KA），整体陷入发展瓶颈。作为 上游供应商的我们亦突陷迷茫困顿，整体性的困惑、集体性的应对无措，成了贴在商超与众多供应商群 体的共同标签。 应《零售圈》宋九亮先生邀约，结合笔者近30年的商超交道、管中窥豹的行业观察，以及多年的"价值 链共赢营销生态系统"研究，我想对传统KA的变革与生态价值重构谈一下自己的思考，以期为行业发展 提供些许参考。 毋容置疑，中国商超行业正经历深刻的结构性变革。在宏观经济环境变化与消费者行为模式转变的双重 驱动下，传统商超渠道正经历一场以"回归本质"为核心的自我革新。 传统商超的生存现状呈现出一种复杂而又充满挑战的图景。一方面，全国范围的关店潮持续上演，各大 超市品牌纷纷精简门店数量以优化布局。2024年有统计显示，62家超市品牌关闭了3037家门店，传统大 卖场的日子愈发艰难。 另一方面，一些曾经的巨头却在 ...

丘应桦提及，虽然中美之间的贸易紧张关系在近月有所缓和，但两国贸易关系的结构性变化已深入影响 全球体系。至于人工智能、自动化等技术进步，正彻底改变生产流程，支持更加客制化与在地化的制造 模式，减少对冗长复杂供应链的依赖。 丘应桦表示，香港具备成为全球供应链重构中心的有利条件，特别是在内地企业拓展东南亚、中东与全 球南方市场的背景之下。另外，目前已有超过300家企业正在香港申请上市的流程中，许多公司计划以 香港作为海外扩展的战略基地。 香港商务及经济发展局局长丘应桦出席活动致辞时表示，香港商品出口已连续20个月增长，今年首十个 月同比增长逾13%。当中，对中国内地出口增长超过15%；对东盟的出口增长逾30%，预计相关趋势会 在可见的未来持续。 丘应桦亦指，相信香港在支持甚至推动供应链重构方面仍大有可为。香港的金融机构具备开发创新融资 工具的独特优势，包括区块链贸易融资平台，已有效缩短交易时间、降低交易对手风险并提升透明度。 ...

市场对美联储12月降息的预期押注大幅上升，据CME FedWatch数据显示，12月降息的可能性目前约为87%。 利率决议结果将于北京时间 2025 年 12 月 11 日凌晨 3:00 公布，这将是年底前影响市场走势的关键事件。 01 美联储降息预期升温 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 12月降息概率87% 美国商务部周五公布的一份关键通胀指标显示，9月份通胀率低于预期。这份报告因政府停摆而延迟发布。 市场人士认为，美国 9 月核心 PCE 通胀指标的意外降温，显示物价月度涨幅温和，这可能会为下周美联储降息铺平道路。 受美国劳动力市场降温、 11 月 ADP 就业数据意外下降等一系列疲软数据影响，市场对美联储降息的押注持续升温。 CME" 美联储观察 " 最新数据显示，美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率已升至 87.2% ，维持利率不变的概率仅为 12.8% ；到明年 1 月累计降 息 25 个基点的概率为 65.8% ，累计降息 50 个基点的概率达 25.1% 。 下一任美联储主席的热门人选、白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特周五重申预期，认为美联储决策者将在下周会议上降息。他表示： " 现在是美 ...