1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - listed sci - tech bond ETF is expected to take over the outstanding performance of credit bond ETFs. In the short term, sentiment support may drive the sci - tech bond ETF to outperform credit bond ETFs; in the long term, it has the characteristics of controllable risks and stable returns [7]. - In the current interest - rate environment, bond - type assets still play a "ballast" role in the asset portfolio, and credit bonds are the preferred choice for bond - type asset allocation. Sci - tech bonds are the "new hot spot" among credit bond assets [30]. - The sci - tech bond ETF has a certain industry linkage with the equity market and is suitable for long - term investors expecting small asset fluctuations and stable returns [36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sci - tech Bond ETF Value Analysis - The tracking index of the GF Sci - tech Bond ETF includes high - quality sci - tech bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, covering industries of high importance and strong stability. The index calculation method is the total market - value weighted method, with a monthly sample - adjustment cycle [4][18]. - The Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Corporate Bond Index has good offensive performance in a bond bull market. Since 2023, its cumulative return is 14.78%, and the annualized return rate is 4.68%, similar to the yields of mainstream credit indexes in the market [20]. - In the current low - inflation environment, the real yield of fixed - income assets has increased since 2024. Bond - type assets are the main part of fixed - income assets in the investment portfolio, and credit bonds are the preferred choice for bond - type asset allocation [30]. - Sci - tech bonds are the "new hot spot" among credit bond assets. The central bank's creation of the "sci - tech innovation bond risk - sharing tool" has created a good investment environment for sci - tech bonds [31]. 3.2 Information Introduction of GF Sci - tech Bond ETF (511120) 3.2.1 Product Basic Situation Introduction - The GF Sci - tech Bond ETF was established on July 10, 2025, and officially listed for trading on July 17, 2025. The product's issuance and fundraising scale reached 2.968 billion yuan, and after listing, the scale increased to 5.662 billion yuan, with an increase rate of 90.73%. The average daily trading volume is about 2.738 billion yuan, and the turnover rate is 48.35% [37]. - The product has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, which has an advantage over traditional active bond funds [37]. - It uses a physical subscription and redemption mechanism. The income distribution adopts the cash - dividend method, with no mandatory dividend commitment [37][41]. 3.2.2 Characteristics Introduction of Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Bond Index - It is expected to be included in the pledge library, with a potentially higher pledge discount coefficient than the Shanghai Market - Making Corporate Bond Index [42]. - It belongs to the medium - duration index, more offensive in a bull market compared to short - term financing ETFs and urban investment bond ETFs [42]. - The underlying bonds are for supporting the development of the sci - tech innovation field, with clear capital uses [42]. - It has a relatively high credit level, and its sample bond stock scale exceeds 970 billion yuan, with a larger strategic capacity [42][43]. 3.2.3 Applicable Scenarios of GF Sci - tech Bond ETF - From a long - term investment perspective, it is suitable for credit - bond allocation enhancement strategies in a low - interest - rate environment and can replace corporate bonds and active bond funds [44]. - From a short - term investment perspective, it can be applied to investment strategies such as spread trading, arbitrage trading, and credit short - selling [44]. 3.3 Comparison with Mainstream Bond ETF Products - The GF Sci - tech Bond ETF has a more neutral duration. It is more suitable for obtaining richer returns in a declining interest - rate environment compared to short - duration products and can better control the retracement range compared to long - duration products [45]. - The tracking index of the GF Sci - tech Bond ETF has advantages such as a large number of issuers, a large market capacity, and high single - bond balances, which are conducive to risk dispersion, strategy reserve, and bond - replenishment operations [7][48].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The capital flow of wealth management products is an important influencing factor in the credit bond market. This report analyzes the changes in wealth management scale and bond - allocation behavior under the background of net - value transformation to enrich the credit bond analysis framework [1][9] Group 2: Wealth Management Scale Trends 2.1 Overall Scale and New Product Term - Deposit interest rate decline drives deposit transfer to wealth management, leading to an increase in wealth management scale. As of Q1 2025, the wealth management product scale reached 29.14 trillion yuan. The average 1 - year fixed - deposit rate of the six major banks was only 0.96% in June 2025, while the wealth management yield was 3.01%. Newly issued products are mainly closed - end, and the term of new products has been extended, with the proportion of new wealth management products with a term over 1 year reaching 47% in June 2025, up about 14 percentage points from March 2024 [10][12] 2.2 Main Expansion Force - Open - ended products are more popular among individual investors. In 2024, the scale of open - ended products increased by 2.7 trillion yuan year - on - year, while that of closed - ended products increased by only 160 billion yuan. The minimum - holding - period products are the main expansion force of wealth management products in 2024, balancing liquidity and yield. As of the end of June 2025, the average maximum drawdown of minimum - holding - period products in the past 1 year was 0.18%, the lowest among open - ended products, and the average annualized yield in the past 1 year reached 2.53%, about 70bp higher than daily - open products [16][17] Group 3: Impact of the "Impossible Triangle" on Bond - Allocation Style 3.1 Bond Allocation Changes - To stabilize the net value of wealth management products, wealth management has reduced bond allocation in recent years and increased the allocation of cash and bank deposits with higher liquidity and lower valuation fluctuations. As of Q1 2025, the scale of wealth management investment in bonds, cash and bank deposits, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 13.68 trillion yuan, 7.27 trillion yuan, and 4.20 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of the total investment assets, with changes of - 6.5%, 5.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [23] 3.2 Credit Bond Allocation - Credit bonds are the main investment direction of wealth management funds, accounting for 41% of the total investment assets. As of the end of 2024, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds in bond investment were 5% and 95% respectively. In Q1 2025, wealth management preferred to allocate urban investment bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds, accounting for 35%, 26%, and 23% of credit bonds respectively. Due to the short - term nature of most wealth management products and the instability of the liability side, the duration of credit bond allocation is short [33][37] 3.3 Increased Fund Entrustment - It is difficult for wealth management to meet the performance benchmark by directly investing in bonds. In Q2 2025, the wealth management performance benchmark dropped to 2.88%, still 84 - 87bp higher than the yields of 3Y AA(2) urban investment bonds and 7Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds. With the blockage of insurance and trust channels, wealth management has increased entrusted investment in funds. The proportion of wealth management's penetrated investment in funds has been rising, indicating an increasing importance of entrusted funds [39][47] 3.4 Bond - Buying Behavior after Self - Built Valuation Model Restrictions - The "self - built valuation model" is a new way for wealth management to smooth net - value fluctuations but has problems such as liquidity risk and unfair returns. After the restriction of the self - built valuation model, some wealth management may reduce the allocation of long - term secondary perpetual bonds and medium - low - rated credit bonds and increase the allocation of short - term high - rated bonds [52][53] Group 4: Impact of Wealth Management on the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Influence of Scale Changes - The bond - allocation rhythm of wealth management is highly correlated with the scale change, which affects the credit spread trend. When the wealth management scale rises, the credit spread tends to narrow; when it falls, the credit spread tends to widen. The seasonal change of wealth management scale also makes the credit spread show seasonal characteristics. Quarter - beginning is a good time for credit spread compression, especially from August to the end of the year. September is a good allocation window, but beware of widening credit spreads in November [3][57] 4.2 Observing Market Adjustment from Wealth Management - During bond market adjustments, pay attention to the risk of "redemption tides". The "redemption tide" occurs when wealth management passively sells bonds due to significant net - value drawdowns. The "redemption tide" is accompanied by an increase in the net - value break - even rate. When the weekly环比 change of the 4 - week rolling net - value break - even rate exceeds 6%, the possibility of a "redemption tide" increases. The maximum drawdown rate of wealth management products can be a leading indicator of credit spread changes, leading by about 7 - 60 days [3][64]

Group 1 - The recent rise in equity market sentiment has led to a narrow fluctuation in the bond market, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds struggling to break previous lows, while credit bonds and local government bonds are performing relatively strongly, indicating that compressing yield spreads is becoming a less obstructive direction in an unclear benchmark interest rate environment [1] - As of July 18, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has decreased by 0.02%, while the government bond ETF for the same duration has seen a recent price of 117.55 yuan, with a nearly 1-year cumulative increase of 5.06% [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent trading volume of 16.18 billion yuan, with an active market turnover rate of 108.29%, and an average daily trading volume of 7.40 billion yuan over the past month [3] Group 2 - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has a recent scale of 1.494 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced, accumulating a total of 61.71 million yuan in inflows over the past 21 trading days [3] - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has achieved a net value increase of 21.14% over the past 5 years, with a maximum monthly return of 2.58% and a historical profitability rate of 100% over 3 years [3] - The Sharpe ratio for the government bond ETF for 5-10 years over the past 2 years is 1.26, with a maximum drawdown of 2.15% this year, and a management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05% [4]

Important Recommendations - The report highlights that Tai Chen Guang (300570) is a core supplier in the MPO sector, entering a phase of simultaneous volume and price increase, driven by unexpected AI demand from downstream clients and sustained growth in overseas customer demand. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2050.96 million, 2993.74 million, and 4332.29 million yuan, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 448.30 million, 717.69 million, and 1064.04 million yuan, indicating growth rates of 71.59%, 60.09%, and 48.26% respectively [4][5][6] - The report also discusses Mai Di Technology (603990) as a leading player in domestic medical informationization, benefiting from three main lines: the profitable spin-off of its photovoltaic business, the launch of smart medical products, and the development of health care robots. The company is expected to achieve revenues of 338 million, 411 million, and 503 million yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 62 million, 83 million, and 124 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of -34.7%, 47.9%, and 49.4% respectively [4][6][7] Key Insights - The report indicates that the medical informationization industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.5% from 2024 to 2029, driven by the integration of AI and full-link data connectivity, with Tai Chen Guang positioned to capitalize on new business opportunities in emergency medical solutions and drone delivery systems [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships, such as those with Huawei and Youbixuan, in expanding the market for health care robots, which is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion yuan [5][6] - The A-share strategy report suggests that the market is currently in a phase of growth, with major indices rising and a recommendation for investors to adopt a balanced portfolio approach, including banking stocks as a stabilizing force [8][9]

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 401.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% week-on-week [2] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues with a scale of 175.91 billion yuan, down 2.02%, representing 43.86% of the total issuance [2] - City investment bonds had 178 issues with a scale of 106.535 billion yuan, an increase of 16.25%, making up 26.56% of the total [2] - Financial bonds totaled 35 issues with a scale of 118.65 billion yuan, down 40.42%, accounting for 29.58% of the total [2] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.17 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.39 years, city investment bonds 4.07 years, and financial bonds 2.21 years [2] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.07%, with industrial bonds at 1.93%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [2] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, up 6.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the electronics sector, down 2.8 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated spreads, the steel industry saw the largest increase of 8 basis points, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest decrease of 5 basis points [5] - In the city investment bond sector, the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads was in Jilin, up 1.8 basis points, while Shanxi saw the largest decrease, down 3.4 basis points [5] - The trading volume for credit bonds ranked as follows: commercial bank bonds at 433.848 billion yuan (up 2.87%), company bonds at 356.402 billion yuan (down 1.49%), and medium-term notes at 324.001 billion yuan (down 5.68%) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown a slight increase in value and significant growth in scale and shares, indicating strong demand and positive supply-demand dynamics in the credit bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 15, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF has increased by 0.12% this month, with a current price of 101.24 yuan [3]. - The ETF has experienced a significant increase in scale, growing by 6.02 billion yuan over the past two weeks, ranking second among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's share count has increased by 583.40 million shares in the last two weeks, also ranking second among comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 1.12% with a trading volume of 1.44 billion yuan on the latest trading day [3]. - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume has been 52.26 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - In the last ten trading days, there have been net inflows on six days, totaling 613 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 61.33 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The ETF has a historical monthly profit probability of 75.49% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-month holding period [4]. - The maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Market Context - The People's Bank of China announced a 14 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, which may support the credit bond market [3]. - The demand for credit bonds remains strong, supported by the growth of wealth management products and the increasing popularity of credit bond ETFs [3].

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 信用债 ETF 性价比几何？ ——信用债热点事件系列 投资要点： 目前，首批 10 只科创债 ETF 集中获批待上市，科创债 ETF 自身的稀缺性以及市场 对科创债自今年 5 月份主体扩容以来的高度关注，年初以来的信用债 ETF 快速扩容 的行情或有可能在科创债 ETF 上再度演绎，相关成分券的利差压缩空间或可期待。 结构性的机会上，我们建议投资者结合负债端属性以及交易风格，通过适度下沉和 拉长久期等方式提前布局成分券中的科创债，并抢配同为 8 只信用债 ETF 成分券的 非可续期科创债。 风险提示：1）数据来源和数据处理偏误风险：本文数据主要来自于同花顺 ifind 等， 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 1.基准做市信用债 ETF 快速扩容 今年年初以来持续的低利率环境下，信用债相比之下具有较高的板块贝塔，中等期限信 用债具有明显的静态票息优势，市场对信用债 ETF 的关注度明显提升。2025 年初以前，市 场上仅有 3 只信用债 ETF ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Tianhong Credit Bond ETF (159398) is experiencing significant inflows and is on track for a potential three-day rise, with a net inflow of nearly 5.9 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days [1] - As of the latest data, the Tianhong Credit Bond ETF has reached a record circulation scale of 11.8 billion yuan, reflecting strong market interest [2] - The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs is contributing to a bull market for long-term credit bonds, with the total scale of eight newly listed benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs approaching 130 billion yuan, nearly six times the initial fundraising scale [2] Group 2 - The bond market has been in a tug-of-war since the second quarter of 2025, with short-term credit spreads compressing to historical lows, making medium to long-term credit bonds more attractive [2] - There is an increasing focus from investors, particularly insurance and wealth management sectors, on exchange-traded credit bond ETFs, indicating a growing interest in these products [2] - The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs is driving an independent bull market for ultra-long credit bonds [2]

Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) has seen a 0.03% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan. Over the past year, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.18% [1] - The trading volume for the company bond ETF was 0.48% with a transaction value of 1.05 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past month was 22.76 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 21.876 billion yuan, setting a new record since its inception [1] Group 2 - Institutions indicate that social financing (社融) may see a year-on-year increase in June, with expected new loans around 2 trillion yuan and a social financing increment of 3.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 8.8% [4] - The secondary market for government bonds showed varied trading activities, with large banks buying 10.1 billion yuan, while city commercial banks sold 33.1 billion yuan. Overall, bond funds have accumulated a net purchase of approximately 170 billion yuan in bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more since the beginning of the year [4] - The company bond ETF (511030) is the only credit bond ETF in the market with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, qualifying for both the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation's pledge library and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's margin trading [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF Boshi (159396) shows positive performance and liquidity, with a recommendation for investors to focus on specific bond durations and types for potential gains [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 3, 2025, the credit bond ETF Boshi increased by 0.06%, with a latest price of 101.24 yuan [3]. - Over the past three months, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.16%, ranking 2nd out of 4 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest scale reached 12.316 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, and it ranks 2nd among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF's share count reached 12.2 million, also a new high in the last three months, maintaining the 2nd position among comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 60.27% during trading, with a transaction volume of 7.429 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - The average daily transaction volume over the past month was 4.678 billion yuan, ranking 1st among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Fund Inflows and Returns - The ETF experienced a net inflow of 22.251 million yuan recently, with a total of 690 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 138 million yuan per day [4]. - Since its inception, the ETF has had a maximum consecutive monthly gain of 4 months, with a profit percentage of 80% and a profit probability of 73.12% [4]. - The ETF's Sharpe ratio for the past month was 1.06, placing it in the top 2 out of 4 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4]. Group 4: Risk and Fee Structure - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF was 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF year-to-date is 0.009%, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4]. Group 5: Market Context - The People's Bank of China reported liquidity injections in June, including a net injection of 535.9 billion yuan through short-term reverse repos [3]. - Industry experts remain optimistic about the overall credit bond market in 2025, suggesting a focus on 3-5 year bonds with higher valuations and liquidity for tactical trading [3].