意料外的行情。 五一假期之前，10 年减 1 年国债期限利差悄然收窄至 16bp 的新低，10 年国债中债估值收益再度探至 1.62%低位，债 市讨论从持债过节是否安全，快速切换到是否追涨。收益快速下行催化剂有三：一是跨月节点，资金不紧反松；二是 市场提前定价 4 月 PMI 读数；三是 30 年国债切换活跃券，定价产生提振。考虑到交易量与行情的脱节，若是相对收 益考核账户还未能赚到这波行情，接下来将面临 4 月初一样的问题：如何执行追涨？ 如何看待追涨性价比？ 牛市行情间隔时间不长，期间信用债调整力度还普遍大于利率债，是不是可以认为跌出票息性价比，反而提升信用债 的参与价值？从以下五个方面来看，仍需留一份谨慎。第一，脆弱的交易情绪，一般信用债距离年内低点即便高于利 率债，也并未展现应有的抢配，甚至是收益下行力度都谈不上修复过去两周的下跌，流动性较好的 AAA 信用债表现亦 平淡。第二，追久期的力度不足。第三，换手率亦未反映一般信用债的配置热度，无论是 3 年内还是 3 年以上城投债， 换手率都在年内较低水平。第四，票息增强不如博资本利得，4 月以来，关键期限城投债和中票平均票息收益与资本 利得收益占比各半， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant adjustments made by fixed-income fund managers in response to the volatility in the bond market during the first quarter, emphasizing the need for a shift in investment strategies to focus on absolute returns and risk control [1][4][6] Group 2 - In the first quarter, there was an increase in the allocation of interest rate bonds and a decrease in credit bonds among actively managed fixed-income funds, with the proportion of interest rate bonds rising from 41.54% to 42.86% and credit bonds falling from 54.63% to 53.12% [2][3] - The shift towards interest rate bonds is attributed to the structural preference in the issuance market and the desire for better liquidity amid significant market fluctuations [2][3] Group 3 - Fund managers are advised to adopt a non-linear thinking approach in bond investment strategies, focusing on enhancing asset liquidity and adjusting the duration of asset holdings to better navigate market volatility [4][5] - There is a strong demand for stable, short- to medium-term bonds with secure coupon values, while certain convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds are seen as having good investment potential [5][6] Group 4 - The second quarter is expected to witness a peak in government project bond issuance, with anticipated supportive monetary policies, including potential rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [6] - The overall sentiment in the market is positive, with expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic stability and growth [6]