2025年，中国经济承压前行、向新向优，财政更加积极、货币适度宽松，宏观政策协同提效、精准发 力，推动经济运行稳中有进、高质量发展取得新成效。立足变局交织与转型攻坚的关键阶段，宏观经济 学家们紧扣时代脉搏，以全局视野、专业研判与扎实立论洞察发展大势；他们聚焦新质生产力、内需提 振、风险化解与长期增长建言献策，在变局中厘清发展逻辑，于前行中领航宏观方向。 新浪财经携手首席经济学家论坛、新经济学家智库，评选出"2025年度十大宏观经济学家"。 本次评选由评委会综合"专业性、影响力、创新性、前瞻性、活跃度"五大维度，经评审团投票，并参考 作品前瞻性、出产率等数据，综合评选出最终获奖结果。 "2025年度十大宏观经济学家"名单（按照拼音首字母顺序排序）： 樊 纲，综合开发研究院原院长、经济学家 管 涛，中银证券全球首席经济学家 邢自强，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家 张 斌 ，中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长。 责任编辑：张文 2025年，中国经济承压前行、向新向优，财政更加积极、货币适度宽松，宏观政策协同提效、精准发 力，推动经济运行稳中有进、高质量发展取得新成效。立足变局交织与转型攻坚的关键阶段，宏观经济 学家们 ...

Group 1 - The central document released on February 3, 2026, emphasizes "multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption," elevating it to a national strategic level, highlighting the importance of basic nutrition and domestic demand [1] - The document also stresses the need for a diversified food supply system, providing institutional support for the expansion of dairy products in health consumption, silver economy, and functional nutrition [1] - The 2026 economic work conference prioritizes domestic demand, indicating a strategic shift from short-term demand expansion to establishing a long-term foundation for growth [1] Group 2 - The essential consumption sector is experiencing a divergence, with basic demand recovering while luxury consumption faces pressure; January 2026 saw positive growth in condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and the catering industry, while dairy products and beer experienced negative growth [2] - The cost index for soft drinks decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, marking the largest decline among categories; net inflows into essential consumption stocks reached 61.73 billion yuan by the end of January [2] - The A-share food and beverage sector is currently at a historical PE percentile of 17%, indicating deep valuation levels, with significant inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [2] Group 3 - The liquor industry is preparing for the Spring Festival marketing activities, focusing on market cultivation and consumer education to boost sales [3] - As of February 4, 2026, the main consumption index rose by 2.11%, with significant increases in major stocks such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haida Group [3] - The consumption ETF has seen a scale increase of 24.23 million yuan in two weeks, with a notable net inflow of 12.92 million yuan over the last five trading days [3] Group 4 - The Consumption ETF Guangfa (560680) closely tracks the main consumption index, with significant weight in liquor (38.68%), pig farming (18.04%), and dairy (9.46%) [4] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF (159699) focuses on new consumption stocks in Hong Kong, with a notable weight of 10.40% in Pop Mart [4] - The Food ETF Guangfa (563850) tracks the CSI Food Index, with major weights in seasoning and fermentation products (25.68%), dairy (16.56%), and meat products (9.54%) [5]

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that approximately 62.3% of respondents believe that the A-share market will rise in the next 12 months, showing a slight decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [1] - There is a divergence in sentiment among different investor groups; individual investors show increased confidence, while financial industry professionals have lowered their expectations for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - The net increase in the proportion of respondents willing to invest in stocks is 13.9%, which is a decline of 5.1 percentage points compared to the previous survey [1] Group 2 - The valuation metric for A-shares, calculated by dividing the total market capitalization of all A-share listed companies at the end of 2025 by the TTM net profit as of the end of Q3 2025, shows an increase of 21.5% compared to the end of 2024, while TTM net profit only grew by 0.8%, indicating that the market rise is primarily driven by valuation expansion rather than profit improvement [2] - Despite external challenges such as fluctuating U.S. trade policies and increased global uncertainty, China's economy achieved a real GDP growth rate of 5.0% for the year, demonstrating resilience, although growth momentum is slowing [2] - Structural challenges to boosting domestic demand include changes in population structure and cyclical adjustments in the real estate market; it is suggested that stabilizing the real estate sector and increasing birth rates are crucial for future economic growth [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026 is projected to maintain a growth target of around 5% to achieve the goal of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average growth rate of approximately 5.5% over the next 11 years [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - Despite a slight decline in global economic growth forecasts, China's external demand remains resilient, benefiting from diversified export markets and improved product competitiveness. However, the difficulty in expanding export shares is increasing, and the contribution of goods and services trade to GDP may decline [1][5]. - Domestic demand faces challenges, particularly due to ongoing weakness in real estate investment, while manufacturing investment is expected to be a highlight, driven by the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][6][7]. - Consumer spending shows resilience but remains overall unsatisfactory, with a rapid decline in government consumption expenditure. Fiscal expansion may help alleviate this issue, as consumer spending is influenced by income and wealth, which have been negatively impacted by the weak real estate market [1][8][9]. Important Economic Indicators - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% in Q4, slightly up from 1.1% in Q3. However, nominal growth remains low at 3.8%, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2]. - The contribution of goods and services trade to GDP reached 1.64 percentage points, accounting for 32.7%, marking a historical high, while capital formation's contribution was only 0.77 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [2]. Consumer Behavior and Fiscal Policy - The central government's plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Two Sessions," which could significantly impact domestic demand and counteract deflation [10]. - The decline in government consumption expenditure, which constitutes about 16% of GDP, has been rapid, necessitating fiscal expansion to address this issue [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Although China faces deflationary pressures, the GDP deflator index showed improvement in Q4, and CPI rebounded mainly due to base effects. However, without strong policy measures, consumer confidence may not recover, and prolonged deflation could affect corporate profits and household income [3][11]. - Recent adjustments to the central bank's structural monetary policy tools have had limited market impact, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to play a more significant role in stimulating demand and combating deflation [12]. Global Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influenced by political factors, has led to fluctuations in interest rate expectations and a weaker dollar, which may benefit the Chinese stock market amid global capital reallocation [3][14][15]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well due to a favorable economic growth outlook, with the potential for increased capital inflows as the RMB appreciates [15]. Bond Market Opportunities - The bond market is anticipated to present opportunities primarily in a range-bound environment, with yields potentially declining under renewed deflationary pressures and rising when such pressures ease [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant rally on December 25, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a notable increase, particularly in the liquor segment, indicating a positive market sentiment towards this industry [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) fluctuated around the waterline in the morning but surged in the afternoon, achieving a maximum intraday increase of 1.01% and closing up by 0.84% [1][8]. - Major liquor stocks saw substantial gains, with Shui Jing Fang hitting the daily limit, Jin Hui Jiu increasing by 3.08%, and other leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye also performing well [1][8]. Group 2: Brand Rankings and Impact - On December 17, the 2025 World Brand 500 list was released, ranking Moutai at 214th and Wuliangye at 216th, with Moutai being recognized as one of the top three oldest brands globally [3][10]. - The high rankings of Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to enhance brand premium and international recognition, supporting their global market expansion strategies [3][10]. Group 3: Fund Holdings and Valuation - Moutai and Wuliangye are the top two holdings in the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF, with respective portfolio weights of 14.89% and 14.65% as of Q3 2025 [3][10]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low valuation, with the ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.11, indicating a favorable entry point for long-term investments [4][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the liquor industry is entering a phase of rapid performance recovery, with demand expected to show signs of weak recovery as policy pressures ease [5][12]. - The food and beverage sector is poised to benefit from strategic policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption, with a focus on health and quality becoming core advantages [5][12].

Group 1 - The consumer sector is experiencing a rebound after a period of absence, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption [1] - The food and beverage industry, as a core segment of essential consumption, is expected to benefit directly from the domestic demand enhancement strategy, with trends towards health, quality, and cost pressure relief [1] - Current consumer industry indicators suggest a bottoming out, with policy benefits and fundamental recovery creating a resonance that presents allocation value [1] Group 2 - The new consumption investment sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm to caution, with expectations that continued policy support in 2026 will boost consumer confidence [1] - Investment in the new consumption sector is anticipated to focus on companies with solid business models and sustainable profit patterns, moving away from short-term narratives [1] - The new consumption industry is expected to evolve towards three trends: health, new pragmatism, and emotional consumption, alongside two dimensions: intelligence and overseas consumption [1] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and ice and snow economy, food and beverage ETF (515170) focusing on undervalued sectors, and Hong Kong consumption ETF (513230) linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the CSI 300 Consumer Index is expected to underperform the benchmark CSI 300 Index for the third consecutive year [1] - The CSI 300 Consumer Index has declined by 6.6% this year, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 16% during the same period [1] - UBS and Everbright Securities International highlight that retail sales have recorded the worst performance outside of the pandemic period, and declining housing prices may continue to suppress domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The government has prioritized boosting domestic demand in two significant policy meetings this year [1]

Core Insights - PwC's report indicates an optimistic outlook for China's consumer market, forecasting a strengthening of the RMB by 2026, alongside a stabilization in the real estate market, which is expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate local consumption [1] Group 1: Market Potential - The report highlights the significant potential of the Chinese consumer market, driven by the growing middle and high-income groups who are increasingly focused on health and sustainability [1] - Technological advancements and artificial intelligence are enabling Chinese retailers to accelerate category management and the development of private labels [1] Group 2: Policy and Investment - China is actively promoting domestic demand and attracting foreign direct investment through a series of new policies, such as tax incentives for reinvestment of profits by foreign investors and the upcoming full closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port [1] - Ongoing tax benefits and expanded opening measures in the Greater Bay Area cooperation zones are expected to create substantial business opportunities in the consumer market [1]

Consumption - Overall commodity consumption is weak, with automotive sales declining and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall[1] - Seasonal recovery in textile and apparel demand is insufficient compared to the same period last year[1] - Service consumption shows stable population movement, with Shanghai's amusement consumption performing well in the off-season[1] Investment - Investment remains weak, with infrastructure construction slowing down and new home transactions marginally declining[1] - The area of new homes sold in 30 cities continues to decrease, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline[14] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased to 65.94%[14] Production - Production is expected to improve mainly due to year-end rush work, with coal inventory at ports continuing seasonal replenishment[1] - The operating rate of asphalt has slightly decreased to 27.8%, remaining at historical lows[14] - The operating rate of carbonates has increased, but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year[23] Trade - The number of ships departing from ports has shown seasonal recovery, with domestic and international freight rates continuing to diverge due to demand differences[1] - Export value has increased, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3%[20] Prices - Industrial product prices have declined, with the PPI dropping by 0.97%[33] - CPI growth rate has decreased by 0.02 percentage points, with significant price increases in food and healthcare services[33] Liquidity - The US dollar index has fallen by 58 basis points to 98.4, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[36] - The central bank's net currency injection was 4.7 billion yuan in the week of December 13[36]