1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure in the first half of next year, with potential improvement in the second half. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short - term and face long - term supply pressure. Corn prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and have cost support in the long - term [5][82][102] - For pigs, short - term supply exceeds demand, but policy support may limit the decline. For eggs, post - holiday demand is weak, and long - term supply adjustment takes time. For corn, new grain listing suppresses prices, and demand growth is limited [5][82][102] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary - **Pig**: The spot price has dropped unexpectedly, and the futures price is running weakly. Supply is increasing, demand is limited, and the price is under pressure. Policy support and other factors may limit the decline. Suggest a bearish view on contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, and focus on the long 05 short 03 arbitrage [5] - **Egg**: Demand has seasonally declined, and the egg price is running weakly. Short - term supply is sufficient, and long - term supply pressure remains. Suggest shorting contracts 12 and 01 after a rebound [82] - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. New grain supply is abundant, and demand growth is limited. Suggest a bearish view on the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [102] 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the national spot price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The futures price of 2511 was 11320 yuan/ton, down 1035 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract basis was - 130 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly average daily slaughter rate and volume decreased, and the frozen product storage rate increased. In terms of cost, the prices of piglets and sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and purchased piglet breeding increased [16] - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in August but remained at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. The production performance improved, and the supply in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year is expected to be high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased [20] 3.2.2 Egg - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 0.48 yuan/jin from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2806 yuan/500 kg, down 232 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 276 yuan/500 kg, weaker than before the holiday [63] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the laying rate recovered, and the inventory of laying hens in September was at a high level. In terms of demand, the post - holiday demand decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. In terms of profit, the breeding profit decreased [64] - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The number of newly - opened laying hens from November 2025 to January 2026 is expected to decrease. The supply growth rate will slow down, but long - term supply pressure remains [82] 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2180 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, weaker than before the holiday [88] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the old - crop inventory of traders was low, and new grain was gradually listed. In terms of demand, feed demand increased, but the substitution of wheat and the low - level operation of deep - processing limited the demand for corn. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the north port increased, and that in the south port decreased [90] - **Key Data Tracking**: The new - crop corn is expected to be abundant due to suitable weather during the growing period. The demand growth is limited, and the price is under pressure in the short - term and has cost support in the long - term [102]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean (Imported): Not rated - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of different agricultural products varies, and the market performance also shows different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of various factors such as production, inventory, policies, and seasons on the market [2][3][5]. - For different agricultural products, different investment strategies are recommended, including short - term tracking, long - term cautious optimism, and pre - holiday waiting and seeing [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are currently strong, with low - protein soybeans on the market. The expected output of domestic soybeans is flat or slightly increased compared to last year due to increased planting area. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has widened. The price of US soybeans is weak due to seasonal harvest pressure and uncertain export prospects. The supply of domestic soybeans may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Focus on the performance of domestic soybeans after listing and the new Brazilian crop in the second quarter of next year [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After Argentina's export policy was introduced, the prices of related products on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 2.98%. After reaching the sales limit of $7 billion, Argentina cancelled the soybean tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has risen to 125 tons. The supply of soybeans from July to November is sufficient, and the annual output of domestic soybeans is expected to reach 21 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and the possible supply gap will occur in the first quarter of next year. The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are under seasonal harvest pressure, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. In the medium term, soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and they face macro - risk tests [3]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures market shows a pattern of weak oil and strong meal, but the overall fluctuation is small. The supply of rapeseed is sufficient, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is limited due to low price - performance ratio and the approaching off - season of aquatic feed. The demand for rapeseed oil increases in autumn and winter, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [5]. Corn - The output of new - season corn is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions. The opening price of new - season corn has dropped. Shandong's spot price is weak, and the supply is increasing. Corn is expected to fluctuate before and after the opening of new - season grain, and the Dalian corn futures are expected to remain weak at the bottom [6]. Live Hogs - The price of live hog futures has dropped significantly, and the valuation centers of near - and far - month contracts have shifted down. The supply of live hogs is abundant, and the spot price has reached a new low. The government has carried out small - scale frozen - pork purchases. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is high, and the industry is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the process of capacity reduction and the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [7]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced their positions. The spot price has declined after reaching a high point on September 17. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will weaken. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of production capacity is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position layouts for the far - month contracts in the first half of next year and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It covers multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and their derivatives, as well as related macro - economic indicators and policy actions. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Spot Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 12 was 4396.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.99% [1]. - Brent crude oil futures contract 12 on ICE closed at 68.82, with a previous - day increase of 0.03% and an overnight decline of 1.40% [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract 11 closed at 65.19, with a previous - day decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of 1.72% [1]. - CBOT soybean futures contract 11 closed at 1014.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.20% and an overnight decline of 0.07% [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.16, with a decline of 0.28% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes (Continued) - For DCE palm oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in North China was 9340, with a basis of 90 and a daily basis change of - 10 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8420, with a basis of 222 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal futures contract 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 2920, with a basis of - 25 and a daily basis change of 11 [2]. - The CNF quote for Brazilian imported soybeans was 478 dollars per ton, with a CNF premium of 290 cents per bushel [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 3.1 Production Area Weather - From October 1 to 5, high - temperature conditions will continue in major US soybean - producing states, with varying precipitation levels [3]. - The weather in the US Midwest will become dry over the weekend and this week, which is conducive to corn harvesting. However, scattered showers may delay the harvesting progress in the south and east regions until Thursday, but the drought situation may improve [5]. 3.2 International Supply and Demand - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, with a 3.19% decrease in yield per unit area and a 0.18% decrease in oil extraction rate [7]. - From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil product exports were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease compared to the same period last month [7]. - India's edible oil imports in the 2025/26 fiscal year are expected to increase by 4.6% to a record 17.1 million tons, driven by a 13.4% surge in palm oil imports to 9.3 million tons [8]. - As of the week ending September 23, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 1407 lots to 165,944 lots, and short positions increased by 14,032 lots to 160,196 lots [8]. - Brazil's 2025/26 new - season soybean planting has started rapidly, with 4.16% of the expected planting area already sown, compared to 0.54% in the same period last year [9]. - As of last Friday, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 5.97%, much faster than the 0.53% in the same period last year [9]. - After Argentina suspended the grain export tax from last Tuesday to Wednesday, it still has 7.6 million tons of soybean derivatives and 8.9 million tons of corn available for export, with a total value of 4.93 billion dollars [9]. - Consulting firm Expana has raised its forecast for EU rapeseed production in the current year to 20.4 million tons, a 21.4% increase from the previous year [10]. - As of the week ending September 24, the rapeseed harvesting rate in Saskatchewan, Canada, was 41.7% [10]. - In 2024, rapeseed accounted for less than a quarter of the raw materials for biodiesel and renewable diesel in Canada. Canada imported a large amount of used biodiesel and renewable diesel [11]. - On Friday, the Baltic Dry Index decreased by 7 points or 0.31% to 2259 points, with a weekly increase of 2.5% [12]. 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 0 tons, a 100% decrease compared to the previous trading day [14]. - On September 28, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30,500 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons compared to the previous trading day [14]. - In the 39th week (September 20 - 26), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.28%, 120,600 tons lower than the forecast [14]. - As of the week ending September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [15]. - On September 28, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.85, up 0.07 points from last Friday [15]. 04 Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - The final value of the US one - year inflation rate expectation in September was 4.7%, lower than the expected 4.8% [17]. - The final value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September was 55.1, lower than the expected 55.4 [17]. - The US core PCE price index annual rate in August was 2.9%, in line with expectations [17]. - The EU has appealed the panel report on the Indonesian biodiesel import tariff dispute at the WTO [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - On September 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1152, up 34 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [19]. - On September 26, the People's Bank of China conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 188.5 billion yuan [19]. - In August, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased by 20.4% year - on - year, compared to a 1.5% decline in the previous month [20]. - The third - quarter (110th) regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23, emphasizing the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [20]. 05 Capital Flows - On September 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.678 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 7.205 billion yuan in the commodity futures market, 246 million yuan in the stock index futures market, and 132 million yuan in the treasury bond futures market [22]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg markets: Cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, the short - term supply - demand pattern is characterized by strong supply and weak demand due to the reduced weight - based slaughter of group factories during the festival. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of sows and policy changes [2] - For the egg market, the short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market should be monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 12,830 yuan/ton, a change of - 170 yuan/ton (- 1.31%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of outer ternary live pigs was 12.88 yuan/kg (- 0.06 yuan/kg); in Jiangsu, it was 13.10 yuan/kg (- 0.11 yuan/kg); in Sichuan, it was 12.56 yuan/kg (- 0.10 yuan/kg) [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On September 18, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.03 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.04 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg (- 0.9%); beef was 65.97 yuan/kg (+ 1.1%); mutton was 61.09 yuan/kg (+ 0.5%); eggs were 8.40 yuan/kg (+ 1.6%); white - striped chickens were 17.55 yuan/kg (+ 1.0%) [1] Market Analysis - The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, but long - term attention should be paid to the culling of sows and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3,132 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 16 yuan (+ 0.51%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.53 yuan/jin (- 0.07); in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin (unchanged); in Hebei, it was 3.42 yuan/jin (- 0.11) [3] - Inventory: On September 18, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.5 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, an increase of 0.23 days (31.08%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, the terminal consumption and sales are smooth, and the overall demand is still strong due to the festival. However, attention should be paid to the impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from September 8 to 14, with a slight decrease in production material prices by 0.2% compared to the previous week [1] - Average wholesale prices for six types of fruits saw a minor decline, with grapes, citrus, and apples decreasing by 3.1%, 2.1%, and 0.6% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price for 30 types of vegetables was 4.75 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, with cucumber, broccoli, and cauliflower decreasing by 8.7%, 4.4%, and 4.4% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products showed a slight decline, with crucian carp, carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.3%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 19.97 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw a slight increase, with eggs and broilers rising by 3.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly decreased, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene declining by 1.6%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, while methanol increased by 0.5% [2] - Coal prices showed a stable decline, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 1001 yuan and 756 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while smokeless block coal remained unchanged at 1136 yuan per ton [2] - Fertilizer prices continued to decline, with urea and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices experienced a slight decrease, with 92-octane gasoline, 0-octane diesel, and 95-octane gasoline dropping by 0.2%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight retreat, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with high-speed wire, rebar, and welded steel pipes priced at 3547 yuan, 3366 yuan, and 3795 yuan per ton, all decreasing by 0.1%, while ordinary medium plates, hot-rolled strips, and channel steel increased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed a slight increase, with aluminum and zinc rising by 0.8% and 0.6%, while copper prices remained unchanged [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the industry: Cautiously bearish for both the hog and egg sectors [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For hogs, the short - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is hard to change due to the reduced festival boost from the earlier weight - reducing sales by group factories. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of sow capacity and national policies [2] - For eggs, the short - term strong consumption demand during the double festivals has driven up the spot price. However, the potential impact of cold - stored eggs entering the market needs to be closely monitored [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Hog - Futures: The closing price of the hog 2511 contract was 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.15%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary hogs was 13.32 yuan/kg (unchanged); in Jiangsu, it was 13.49 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.87 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on September 15: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.94, down 0.37 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 118.71, down 0.45 points. The average pork price was 19.88 yuan/kg (unchanged), beef 65.66 yuan/kg (unchanged), mutton 61.09 yuan/kg, down 0.3%, eggs 8.11 yuan/kg, up 2.0%, and白条鸡17.52 yuan/kg, up 0.5% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3143 yuan/500 kilograms, up 103 yuan (+3.39%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.49 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 3.60 yuan/jin, up 0.27 yuan [3] - Inventory: On September 15, the production - link inventory was 0.45 days (unchanged), and the circulation - link inventory was 0.56 days, down 0.09 days (-13.85%) [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Hog - The earlier weight - reducing sales by group factories have weakened the festival boost. In the short - term, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern persists, while in the long - term, the reduction of sow capacity and policy changes are key factors [2] Egg - After the egg price increase, the terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and the inventory has been cleared. The overall demand is still strong due to the double festivals, but the potential impact of cold - stored eggs needs attention [4] Group 5: Strategies - For hogs, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] - For eggs, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [5]

Group 1 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets is 19.94 yuan per kilogram, which represents an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 7.64 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.4% from the previous day [1]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 4.46 yuan per kilogram, rising by 3.2%, with broccoli, cucumber, and zucchini increasing by 18.9%, 10.9%, and 10.2% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices saw slight increases, with eggs and white-cut chicken rising by 1.4% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices experienced minor increases, with grass carp, large yellow croaker, and carp rising by 0.5%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with pork priced at 20.05 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.6%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices slightly decreased, with soybean oil, rapeseed oil, rice, and flour all dropping by 0.2%, while peanut oil increased by 0.1% [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits slightly decreased, with grapes, watermelons, and bananas falling by 1.1%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Steel prices experienced slight declines, with high-speed wire, rebar, and hot-rolled strip steel priced at 3595 yuan, 3411 yuan, and 3613 yuan per ton, decreasing by 1.2%, 1.1%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices saw minor decreases, with polypropylene, sulfuric acid, methanol, and soda ash dropping by 1.3%, 0.7%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly retreated, with zinc, copper, and aluminum decreasing by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices continued to decline, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable with a slight increase, as urea rose by 0.1%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged from the previous week [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 994 yuan, 766 yuan, and 1138 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively [2]

Group 1: Apple Investment Rating - Neutral. The apple market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term due to low inventory and similar expected production in the new season [3]. Core View - The apple market shows a mixed trend with polarizing prices of early - maturing varieties and a weakening trend in inventory apples. The market should focus on the quality of new - season fruits and the impact of early - maturing apples on inventory apple sales [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract was 8124 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.21% ) from the previous day. Spot: Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin; Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.50 yuan/jin [1]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fell. The remaining early - maturing Gala apples in the western region had uneven quality and chaotic prices. Inventory apples had a high proportion of large fruits and slow sales. Short - term inventory apples are expected to be stable but weak [2]. Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. With low inventory and little change in expected production, apple prices will likely remain stable in the short term. Monitor the trading of new - season early - maturing apples [3]. Group 2: Red Dates Investment Rating - Neutral. The red date market may see short - term upward movement due to unfalsified production reduction expectations, but high inventory may cause prices to weaken if the reduction is less than expected [7]. Core View - Red date futures prices were flat. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the market is sensitive to weather changes in the production areas. There are differences in the expectations for the new - season red date production [4][6]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 11410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Spot: Hebei first - grade grey dates were 9.60 yuan/kg [4]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices remained the same. The first - crop flowers are turning red and sugaring. The arrival of goods in the sales areas decreased, and the spot price is strong. The market is trading based on production reduction expectations and is sensitive to weather [6]. Strategy - Adopt a neutral stance. The market may be affected by capital sentiment in the short term, but high inventory may lead to price weakness if the production reduction is less than expected [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market followed the stock market. The influence of the stock index on the bond market weakened. Short - term focus on stock market changes: a strong stock market will suppress the bond market, while a stock market correction will benefit bond bulls. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2][35][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap on Monday and then fell sharply, fluctuated horizontally on Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday, rebounded after hitting the bottom on Thursday, and declined slightly on Friday. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 1.05%, the 10 - year treasury bond fell 0.52%, the 5 - year treasury bond fell 0.28%, and the 2 - year treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] - As of August 22, the maturity yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel compared with August 15. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 3, 4, 3, and 3 basis points respectively [8] 3.2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Data - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2027.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and the expenditure was 1946.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.04%. From January to July, the cumulative general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [11] - In July, national tax revenue was 1801.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, and non - tax revenue was 225.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [13] - From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2312.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%, and the expenditure was 5428.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% [16] 3.3 Unemployment Rate - In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.8%, higher than the same period last year by 0.7 percentage points; the 25 - 29 age group was 6.9%, higher than the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points; the 30 - 59 age group was 3.9%, the same as the same period last year [19] 3.4 South Korean Export Data - In the first 20 days of August, South Korea's exports increased by 7.6% year - on - year. Semiconductor exports were 8.71 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%, accounting for 24.5% of the total exports in the first 20 days of August, up 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year [21] 3.5 New Home Sales Data - Since June, the decline rate of the national new home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.36 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From August 1 to 20, it was 1.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [23] 3.6 Price Data - As of August 22, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 115.53. Prices showed a slight upward trend in the first 22 days of August, but the upward slope was much lower than the same period last year. In July, energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The average domestic refined oil price in August was lower than that in July [25] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly in the first 22 days of August. After reaching a closing high on July 25, it continued to decline. Short - term inflation pressure is limited [28] 3.7 Capital Interest Rate Data - This week, capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.45%, and it fell to 1.41% on Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, and it fell to 1.47% on Friday. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.67%, higher than last week's average of 1.64% [31][32] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Market Logic and Trading Strategy - In July, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate was significantly lower than market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, and the service industry production index were all lower than expected. Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, while exports exceeded expectations. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council will take measures to stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market [35] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [36]