1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand is showing off - season characteristics with a decline. It is necessary to observe whether the winter storage market can be launched in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has been volatile after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 15,590 lots. The trading volume continued to decline compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream region was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the spot price, which continued to support the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, and the production was still at a near - 4 - year low. As of December 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 22.655 million tons, 28,600 tons lower than last year. This week's production continued to rise slightly, which would weaken price support to some extent [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak. The average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide remained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - five - year low for the same period. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, at a near - 4 - year low. Demand showed regional differences. Construction in the north stopped due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects were rushing to complete, with good demand resilience. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and it was necessary to pay attention to whether winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks, but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. Among them, the social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in destocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, slightly increasing by 5,200 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed current demand resilience. Although the inventory destocking rate slowed down this week, the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, adjusting policies according to cities to control new supply, destock, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macro - economically, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, expectations of policy easing, a large futures discount providing bottom - support, strong iron ore in the furnace charge, and stable coking coal enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter - storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5]. Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a volatile situation. Supply is at a relatively low level but has increased recently, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand shows off - season characteristics. The inventory destocking rate has slowed down, and the overall inventory level is okay. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The market has been volatile recently, indicating a non - prominent supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6].

【冠通期货研究报告】 ■需求端：截止 12 月 25 日周度表观消费量环比上升 8.76 万吨至 307.04 万吨，公历同比下降 2.29 万吨。本周表需回升，抢出口行情显现，但后续还要 关注 1 月的冬储行情。 ■库存端：截止 12 月 25 日总库存周环比下降 13.50 万吨至 377.22 万吨（社 会库存降 10.6 万吨，钢厂库存降 2.9 万吨，总库存降 13.50 万吨），总库存维 持去库，且去库加速，显示需求 12 月下旬韧性可以，应是企业抢出口导致，但 总库存处于近 4 年高位。后续需要关注库存继续去库速度。 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周四持仓量增仓 9350 手，成交量 248652 手， 相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3280 元，最高价 3291 元，日内震荡整理运行， 收于 3280 元/吨，上涨 1 元/吨，涨幅 0.03%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3280 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 10 元。 3，基差：期现基差 0 元，基差平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端： ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 18 日热卷周产量环比下降 16.8 万吨至 291.91 万吨。 公历同比下降 20.81 万吨。本周热卷产量大幅下滑，回落至年内最低水平，且处 于近 4 年低位，提升价格支撑。减产主要由于利润收缩，钢厂检修增多，部分钢 厂向螺纹钢转产，季节性淡季。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 18 日周度表观消费量环比下降 13.69 万吨至 298.28 万吨，公历同比下降 13.69 万吨。本周表需下滑较多，但低于产量下滑速度。关 注 12 月下旬到 1 月的冬储行情。 ■库存端：截止 12 月 18 日总库存周环比下降 6.37 万吨至 390.72 万吨（社 会库存降 5.76 万吨，钢厂库存降 0.61 万吨，总库存降 6.37 万吨），总库存维 持去库，但总库存处于近 4 年高位。后续需要关注库存继续去库速度。 ■政策面：钢材出口许可证管理新规出台，短期将导致出口波动，供应增加， 价格承压，长期则推动产业升级，结构优化，竞争力提升。12 月召开的中央经 济 ...

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract closed at 2977, with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3020 and a low of 2965 during the day, accumulating a 0.7% increase over the past week [2][33] - The next month contract, BU 2603, saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][33] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [2][33] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price decreased by 1.3% to 3090 CNY/ton, with a basis of 113 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton over the week [2][33] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -194 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 14 CNY/ton, while the BU main contract fell by 0.6% and Brent by 0.1% [2][33] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to uncertainty in short-term price stabilization [2][33] Fundamental Changes - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -13.72 USD/barrel as of December 22, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier, indicating a relative expansion [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow de-inventory process [4][34] - The Shandong heavy asphalt market shows signs of stabilization, supported by winter storage prices, while supply risks are rising due to the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers [4][34] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on the winter storage market's performance [4][34] - OPEC+ production increases are likely to impact oil price levels, with asphalt prices expected to follow a downward trend [4][34] - Technically, asphalt prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels [4][34] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging oscillation approach [6][35]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】盘面表现：BU 2602合约日内下挫到低位后有所拉升，最终收盘2940，跌幅0.1%，盘中最高触及 2953，最低2916，近7天累计-1.6%，处于震荡状态。次月合约2601跌幅0.24%，合约期限仍呈现近低远 高的Contango结构。 【2】现货市场：①山东重交沥青市场价为2930元/吨，与沥青期价基本相近，环比持平，7天累 计-1.7%。山东基差为-10元/吨，7天累计0元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3150元/吨，环比+0%。华东 基差为+210元/吨，7天累计+10元/吨。 【3】裂解变化：①BU-Brent录得-265元/吨，7天累计+8元/吨。当日BU主力-0.1%；Brent-0.4%（以下午 3点收盘成交价计算）。沥青近期成为能化板块弱品种，其在油价无过多支撑且现货市场不景气下，价 格维持低位，拉阔了裂解价差。目前油价也面临较多不确定性因素，沥青层面作为油价的对冲难度要大 一些，裂解差持观望看待。 【4】基本面变化：目前来看，整体沥青正值冬季淡季，其基本面平淡无过多亮点。产量端，截止12月 ...

是依旧持续关注冬储行情变化。本周暂且关注地缘层面俄乌相互能源设施袭击及南美委内瑞拉风险等因 素对油价造成的市场扰动。 【5】短期展望：基本面上，价格依旧弱势看待，自身上行空间仍受制于需求减弱和库存压力两方面影 响，关注冬储行情是否起色。年底前OPEC+增产冲击油价重心，沥青大概率跟跌重心下移。技术面 上，沥青价格持续在磨底震荡，预期仍以低位徘徊为主。前期提供参考收盘价【3010-3100】，目前已 跌穿区间，仍需耐心等待价格企稳信号。 【6】策略：单边弱势震荡 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】盘面表现：BU 2602合约日内低位区间震荡，最终收盘2943，跌幅0.41%，盘中最高触及2963，最 低2928，近7天累计-1.7%，处于震荡状态。次月合约2601跌幅0.24 %，合约期限仍呈现近低远高的 Contango结构。 【2】现货市场：①山东重交沥青市场价为2930元/吨，与沥青期价基本相近，环比持平，7天累 计-2.0%。山东基差为-13元/吨，7天累计-7元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3150元/吨，环比+0%。华东 基差为+20 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...

Market Performance - The main BU contract closed at 2916, down 2.47% from the opening price of 2983, with a total decline of 2.2% over the past week [2][31] - Trading volume reached 222,500 contracts, with a turnover of 6.641 billion, indicating a significant drop [2][31] - The next month contract (2602) fell by 2.54%, maintaining a contango structure [2][31] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong is 2960 CNY/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 2.3% over the past week [2][31] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price remains stable at 3190 CNY/ton, with a basis of +274 CNY/ton, up 43 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -365 CNY/ton, with a cumulative decline of 60 CNY/ton over the past week [2][31] - The main BU contract fell by 0.1%, while Brent increased by 2.5% [2][31] Fundamental Changes - The asphalt market is currently in the winter off-season, with a production increase of 12% to 492,000 tons as of November 28 [3][32] - The diluted asphalt discount remains high at -11.3 USD/barrel, indicating a loose supply situation [3][32] - Road construction rates have dropped to 29%, the lowest in six weeks, reflecting weak demand [3][32] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak due to reduced demand and inventory pressure, with a focus on winter storage trends [4][32] - OPEC+ production increases may further impact oil prices, likely leading to a downward adjustment in asphalt prices [4][32] - The technical outlook suggests continued low-level fluctuations, with previous reference closing prices of 3010-3100 CNY/ton now breached [4][32] Strategy - The current strategy is to maintain a bearish stance with weak fluctuations anticipated in the asphalt market [6][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].