Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rebound in the past two weeks, and there is an expectation of steel mill复产 in January. Demand decline shows off - season characteristics. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to continue the volatile and weak consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the rebar main contract on Thursday was 1,132,633 lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 47,415 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3090 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3132 yuan/ton, and closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.42% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 172 yuan/ton to the spot, which supported the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 2.71 million tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks, and was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 129,000 tons lower year - on - year. There is an expectation of steel mill复产, which will weaken price support [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country remaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year. Demand showed regional differences, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and the south having some demand resilience due to rush construction of existing projects. Pay attention to whether winter storage can drive demand in January [2]. Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons week - on - week, and the destocking slowed down. The steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a slight increase of 5,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The central economic conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, keep liquidity abundant, and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real - estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, and macro - increment demand is relatively limited, but the loose cycle provides support [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, loose policy expectations, large futures discount providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and stable coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5].

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract experienced intraday fluctuations, closing at 2995 with a gain of 0.17%, reaching a high of 3010 and a low of 2983, with a cumulative increase of 3.6% over the past week [2][29] - The next month contract 2603 saw a slight decline of 0.03%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][29] Spot Market - The price of heavy asphalt in Shandong remained stable at 2920 yuan/ton, with no change week-on-week and a cumulative increase of 0% over the past week [2][29] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price was 3090 yuan/ton, also unchanged, while the basis in Shandong was -75 yuan/ton, down 101 yuan/ton over the past week [2][29] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -189 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1 yuan/ton over the past week, while the BU main contract rose by 0.17% and Brent remained unchanged [2][29] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to short-term price stabilization but with ongoing uncertainty [2][29] Fundamental Changes - Recent developments regarding Venezuelan oil exports remain a key risk factor, with U.S. military orders for a two-month "quarantine" on Venezuelan oil, following a comprehensive blockade initiated by Trump [3][30] - Venezuela's oil exports are hindered by sanctions, forcing oil to be stored on tankers, with China being the primary destination for approximately 80% of Venezuelan oil exports, indicating a high dependency of Chinese refineries on Venezuelan crude [3][30] Supply and Inventory - The dilution asphalt discount widened, with Malaysia's dilution asphalt discount recorded at -14.46 USD/barrel as of December 24, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier [4][31] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow inventory reduction [4][31] Short-term Outlook - Asphalt prices have slightly increased since early December, fluctuating around 3000, with significant volatility observed [5][32] - Downstream road demand is in a seasonal lull, maintaining a weak price outlook, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on winter storage trends [5][32] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging single-sided trading approach [6][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand is showing off - season characteristics with a decline. It is necessary to observe whether the winter storage market can be launched in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has been volatile after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 15,590 lots. The trading volume continued to decline compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream region was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the spot price, which continued to support the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, and the production was still at a near - 4 - year low. As of December 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 22.655 million tons, 28,600 tons lower than last year. This week's production continued to rise slightly, which would weaken price support to some extent [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak. The average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide remained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - five - year low for the same period. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, at a near - 4 - year low. Demand showed regional differences. Construction in the north stopped due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects were rushing to complete, with good demand resilience. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and it was necessary to pay attention to whether winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks, but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. Among them, the social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in destocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, slightly increasing by 5,200 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed current demand resilience. Although the inventory destocking rate slowed down this week, the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, adjusting policies according to cities to control new supply, destock, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macro - economically, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, expectations of policy easing, a large futures discount providing bottom - support, strong iron ore in the furnace charge, and stable coking coal enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter - storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5]. Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a volatile situation. Supply is at a relatively low level but has increased recently, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand shows off - season characteristics. The inventory destocking rate has slowed down, and the overall inventory level is okay. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The market has been volatile recently, indicating a non - prominent supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the announced hot-rolled coil production has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for further production increases. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total volume remains at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro environment, attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed in the negative territory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures on Thursday was 248,652 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,291 yuan, and it closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The open interest increased by 9,350 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, indicating a flat basis [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 136,000 tons. This week, the hot-rolled coil production rebounded after a significant decline last week and is currently near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support [3] - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 22,900 tons. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the decline accelerated, indicating that the demand was resilient in late December, presumably due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued inventory decline needs to be monitored [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] - External macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The supply-side production has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5] - Bearish factors: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 24 日 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 18 日热卷周产量环比下降 16.8 万吨至 291.91 万吨。 公历同比下降 20.81 万吨。本周热卷产量大幅下滑，回落至年内最低水平，且处 于近 4 年低位，提升价格支撑。减产主要由于利润收缩，钢厂检修增多，部分钢 厂向螺纹钢转产，季节性淡季。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 18 日周度表观消费量环比下降 13.69 万吨至 298.28 万吨，公历同比下降 13.69 万吨。本周表需下滑较多，但低于产量下滑速度。关 注 12 月下旬到 1 月的冬储行情。 ■库存端：截止 12 月 18 日总库存周环比下降 6.37 万吨至 390.72 万吨（社 会库存降 5.76 万吨，钢厂库存降 0.61 万吨，总库存降 6.37 万吨），总库存维 持去库，但总库存处于近 4 年高位。后续需要关注库存继续去库速度。 ■政策面：钢材出口许可证管理新规出台，短期将导致出口波动，供应增加， 价格承压，长期则推动产业升级，结构优化，竞争力提升。12 月召开的中央经 济 ...

Market Performance - The BU 2602 contract closed at 2977, with a gain of 0.27%, reaching a high of 3020 and a low of 2965 during the day, accumulating a 0.7% increase over the past week [2][33] - The next month contract, BU 2603, saw a slight increase of 0.13%, maintaining a contango structure with lower near-term prices compared to longer-term prices [2][33] Spot Market - The price of Shandong heavy asphalt remained stable at 2920 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [2][33] - In East China, the heavy asphalt price decreased by 1.3% to 3090 CNY/ton, with a basis of 113 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton over the week [2][33] Crack Spread Changes - The BU-Brent spread recorded -194 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 14 CNY/ton, while the BU main contract fell by 0.6% and Brent by 0.1% [2][33] - Oil prices are influenced by geopolitical disturbances in Venezuela, leading to uncertainty in short-term price stabilization [2][33] Fundamental Changes - The dilution asphalt discount widened to -13.72 USD/barrel as of December 22, compared to -13.46 USD/barrel a week earlier, indicating a relative expansion [4][34] - Total social and domestic inventory data recorded 642,000 tons, reflecting a 0.9% increase week-on-week, indicating a slow de-inventory process [4][34] - The Shandong heavy asphalt market shows signs of stabilization, supported by winter storage prices, while supply risks are rising due to the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers [4][34] Short-term Outlook - Prices are expected to remain weak, constrained by reduced demand and inventory pressures, with attention on the winter storage market's performance [4][34] - OPEC+ production increases are likely to impact oil price levels, with asphalt prices expected to follow a downward trend [4][34] - Technically, asphalt prices are anticipated to continue fluctuating at low levels [4][34] Strategy - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wide-ranging oscillation approach [6][35]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】盘面表现：BU 2602合约日内下挫到低位后有所拉升，最终收盘2940，跌幅0.1%，盘中最高触及 2953，最低2916，近7天累计-1.6%，处于震荡状态。次月合约2601跌幅0.24%，合约期限仍呈现近低远 高的Contango结构。 【2】现货市场：①山东重交沥青市场价为2930元/吨，与沥青期价基本相近，环比持平，7天累 计-1.7%。山东基差为-10元/吨，7天累计0元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3150元/吨，环比+0%。华东 基差为+210元/吨，7天累计+10元/吨。 【3】裂解变化：①BU-Brent录得-265元/吨，7天累计+8元/吨。当日BU主力-0.1%；Brent-0.4%（以下午 3点收盘成交价计算）。沥青近期成为能化板块弱品种，其在油价无过多支撑且现货市场不景气下，价 格维持低位，拉阔了裂解价差。目前油价也面临较多不确定性因素，沥青层面作为油价的对冲难度要大 一些，裂解差持观望看待。 【4】基本面变化：目前来看，整体沥青正值冬季淡季，其基本面平淡无过多亮点。产量端，截止12月 ...

是依旧持续关注冬储行情变化。本周暂且关注地缘层面俄乌相互能源设施袭击及南美委内瑞拉风险等因 素对油价造成的市场扰动。 【5】短期展望：基本面上，价格依旧弱势看待，自身上行空间仍受制于需求减弱和库存压力两方面影 响，关注冬储行情是否起色。年底前OPEC+增产冲击油价重心，沥青大概率跟跌重心下移。技术面 上，沥青价格持续在磨底震荡，预期仍以低位徘徊为主。前期提供参考收盘价【3010-3100】，目前已 跌穿区间，仍需耐心等待价格企稳信号。 【6】策略：单边弱势震荡 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】盘面表现：BU 2602合约日内低位区间震荡，最终收盘2943，跌幅0.41%，盘中最高触及2963，最 低2928，近7天累计-1.7%，处于震荡状态。次月合约2601跌幅0.24 %，合约期限仍呈现近低远高的 Contango结构。 【2】现货市场：①山东重交沥青市场价为2930元/吨，与沥青期价基本相近，环比持平，7天累 计-2.0%。山东基差为-13元/吨，7天累计-7元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3150元/吨，环比+0%。华东 基差为+20 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-05 单边：震荡 跨品种：无 期现：无 基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面矛盾不足，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 供需与逻辑：供应端，我的钢铁数据显示成材供应有所回落，需求压力仍在。板材供需矛盾仍未解决。当前弱现 实强预期叠加成本托底，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储 行情启动情况。 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3148元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3323元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，价格基本和昨日持稳，低价为主，出货意愿持续增加，全国建材成交93867吨。 策略 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：需求预期走弱，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘794.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交85.6万吨，环比减少 26.84%。 供需与逻辑：目前供需矛盾持续蓄力，铁水产量环比减量，钢厂盈利率持续压缩，淡季逐渐深入，铁水季节性下 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-04 基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：基本面弱平衡，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3137元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3319元/吨。现货方面，全国建材成交89788吨。 供需与逻辑：供应端，数据显示成材产量库存下降，需求表现尚可。板材数据产量库存数据回升，需求端稍弱。 当前基本面矛盾不突出，换月完成，宏观预期上升市场交易地位，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变化 对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场观望为主，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日，双焦期货市场呈现涨跌分化态势，焦煤主力合约价格回调，焦炭主力合约延续上涨行情。进 口蒙煤市场表现平淡，贸易商情绪谨慎，市场活跃度一般，交投氛围冷清。 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡偏弱运行，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘799.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅 下跌、成交氛围略显平淡，供需呈现宽松态势，采购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交119.1 ...