Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend. Steel mills continued to cut production, and steel demand improved slightly due to temperature drops. However, the high production of hot - rolled coils led to inventory accumulation, while rebar started to reduce inventory. The black metal sector was under pressure due to news and fundamentals, but steel prices had low valuations, and there was still some support at the bottom. The market should continue to monitor coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3101 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 3149 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan), and RB01 at 3045 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 was - 161 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 182 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, Shandong Shiheng, and Tangshan Tanggang remained stable or changed slightly. The profit of rebar in different regions varied, with Tangshan rebar profit increasing by 12 yuan/ton to - 333 yuan/ton, while Shandong rebar profit decreased by 91 yuan/ton to - 580 yuan/ton [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3234 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), HC10 at 3265 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), and HC01 at 3215 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 was - 28 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 1 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coils changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 196 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan, Beijing Jingye was 3100 yuan (up 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (up 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: The market will maintain a bottom - volatile trend [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and the long position of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Important Information**: - From January to September, the housing construction area of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of newly - built commercial housing also decreased [10]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 7349 million tons (down 4.6% year - on - year), pig iron output was 6605 million tons (down 2.4% year - on - year), and steel output was 12421 million tons (up 5.1% year - on - year) [11][13]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report provided multiple charts, including those showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 to 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [17][21][27].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of a favorable development in the military industry from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by the upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary goal of the military [4][39]. - The military industry is anticipated to experience significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand due to multiple catalysts, including the 14th Five-Year Plan and rapid military trade development [4][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military index (801740) fell by 4.61% from October 9 to October 17, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 2.73%, resulting in an underperformance of 1.88 percentage points [10][15]. - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 13.28%, compared to a 14.72% rise in the CSI 300 index, leading to a relative underperformance of 1.44 percentage points [17]. 2. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, LIGONG Navigation, Bai'ao Intelligent, Great Wall Military, and China Ordnance Red Arrow 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech and Huaqin Technology 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials and China Marine Defense 4. Engines: Hangyu Technology, Hangya Technology, and Tunan Co. 5. Drones & Anti-drone: Zongheng Co., Aerospace Rainbow, Ruike Laser, Sichuang Electronics, and Xinjinggang 6. AI Intelligence: Xingtuxinke and Aerospace Electronics 7. Aircraft: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft and AVIC Xi'an Aircraft 8. Nuclear Fusion: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, Xinfengguang, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Parker New Materials, Yongding Co., Wangzi New Materials, and Hongwei Technology [4][40]. 3. Fund and Valuation Analysis - As of October 17, the military index's TTM P/E ratio is 73.81, with a percentile rank of 96.47%, indicating a high configuration value given the strong recovery expectations for 2025 [4][39][30]. - The report notes a decrease in the scale of passive funds but an increase in fund shares, with a net inflow of 1.391 billion yuan into military ETFs, suggesting continued confidence in the military sector [25][30].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with overall weak spot trading volume of steel products, significantly weaker than yesterday. Some steel mills reduced production, and there was obvious inventory accumulation during the holiday, with a faster decline in apparent demand. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom with limited downside. As the weather turns cooler, steel demand may recover. If downstream demand in October recovers more than expected, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five-Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar is expected to widen due to low production, increasing rebar output before the holiday, and continuous reduction in hot-rolled coil output, with strong export performance [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3159 yuan/ton (unchanged), RB10 at 3019 yuan/ton (-1), and RB01 at 3103 yuan/ton (+7). The 05 - contract rebar profit was -130 yuan/ton (-10), 10 - contract at -269 yuan/ton (-6), and 01 - contract at -151 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3220 yuan/ton (+10), Nanjing Xicheng at 3320 yuan/ton (+10), Shandong Shiheng at 3220 yuan/ton (+20), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3140 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cheapest delivery product was 3220 yuan/ton. Tangshan billet was at 2960 yuan/ton (unchanged), and East China scrap steel was at 2150 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3292 yuan/ton (-1), HC10 at 3406 yuan/ton (+36), and HC01 at 3285 yuan/ton (-1). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil profit was 3 yuan/ton (-11), 10 - contract at 118 yuan/ton (+31), and 01 - contract at 31 yuan/ton (-14) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang was at 3290 yuan/ton (unchanged), Lecong Rigang at 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanghai Angang at 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged). The cheapest delivery product was 3320 yuan/ton. Lecong Magang cold - rolled was at 3910 yuan/ton (-10) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was at 3220 yuan/ton (+10), Beijing Jingye at 3180 yuan/ton (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3290 yuan/ton (unchanged) [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - Side**: Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information**: - During and after the holiday, with the continuous implementation of environmental protection restrictions, most steel mills tightened the sintering machine production restrictions from 30% to 40% - 50% [8]. - As of the week of October 9, building material production was 454.86 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.08 million tons; factory inventory was 488.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54.81 million tons; social inventory was 572.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.62 million tons; apparent demand was 374.43 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 148.03 million tons [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 31 figures showing various data such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2021 to 2025 [12][16][18].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report, Black Metal Daily, October 09, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Threaded Steel - Futures: RB05 price is 3128 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB10 is 3020 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; RB01 is 3096 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. The 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit is - 119 yuan, down 7 yuan; the 10 - contract is - 264 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 01 - contract is - 145 yuan, down 6 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian is 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3200 yuan/ton. The adjustment and rolling profit is 80 yuan, up 30 yuan; the East China threaded steel profit is - 196 yuan, down 10 yuan [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 price is 3293 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan; HC10 is 3370 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; HC01 is 3286 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit is 15 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 10 - contract is 86 yuan, down 50 yuan; the 01 - contract is 45 yuan, up 3 yuan [3] - Spot: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest delivery product is 3320 yuan/ton. The Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit is - 256 yuan, down 11 yuan; the East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 161 yuan, down 1 yuan [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3210 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3350 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [7] - Trading Strategy: The black sector maintains a volatile trend. Steel spot trading is average. After the holiday, demand is released to some extent, and low - price trading is okay. Some steel mills have reduced production. Steel inventory has increased significantly during the holiday, and the apparent demand has declined rapidly. The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If the downstream demand in October recovers beyond expectations, the steel price may rise further. The difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel has an expanding trend [8][9] - Specific Strategies: Unilateral trading, maintain the bottom - oscillating trend, suggest buying on dips; for arbitrage, suggest holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and buying the difference between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel; for options, suggest waiting and seeing [9] - Important Information: This week, the small - sample threaded steel output is 203.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.62 tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 146.01 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 43.4% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 95.05 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output is 323.29 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4 million tons, and the apparent demand is estimated to be 290.97 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 8.72% in the lunar calendar), a month - on - month decrease of 33.64 million tons. In September 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 82% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include various graphs such as the base price of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, the price difference between different contracts, the profit of different contracts, and the cash profit in different regions [17][19][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile trend today, with general spot steel transactions and ongoing pre - holiday restocking. The overall output of the five major steel products increased this week, but hot - rolled production decreased. Affected by supply pressure, the apparent demand for hot - rolled weakened, while the demand for rebar continued to recover. With the cooling weather, the downstream demand improved, leading to an overall increase in the apparent demand of the five major steel products. Steel inventories entered an inflection point, with the five major steel products starting to destock and the inventory accumulation rate of hot - rolled slowing down. It is expected that the molten iron output will remain high this week. The approaching typhoon in South China and the upcoming double festivals may affect some construction site demands. However, with the cooling weather, steel demand may recover to some extent after the festivals. Since mid - September, there have been many market rumors, causing the futures market to rise rapidly, but currently, there is a lack of further upward drivers. Pre - holiday long - position funds may leave the market one after another. Recently, rebar production has resumed, so there is still pressure on steel prices, and there may be a risk of decline about a week after the festivals. If the downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect market fluctuations. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3190 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3400 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-) [6] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and continue holding the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - On September 25, the China Index Academy monitored that the total bond financing of the real estate industry in August 2025 was 55.31 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. From May to July, the monthly financing amount showed an increasing trend, but in August, the monthly financing amount decreased year - on - year. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points [8] - In August 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [10] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, contract spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. These charts cover different contract periods (01, 05, 10) and different types of profit margins (disk profit, cash profit, etc.) [16][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. There may be a decline risk around one week before and after the holiday, but if downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, due to policy support on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][11]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September, the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [12][15]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, after the release of the sentiment driven by anti - involution news, they can be used as short positions in the industrial chain due to high supply [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decline from the previous period. Steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a 3.4% decrease. From January to August 2025, local government bond issuance reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase. Spot prices of steel in different regions showed some fluctuations [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated at night. Construction steel trading volume on the 24th was 103,900 tons. This week, rebar production increased while hot - rolled coil production growth slowed. Steel inventory continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, leading to an accelerated recovery of apparent demand. High iron - water production is expected to continue this week. Typhoons may affect demand in some areas, but post - holiday demand may recover. There is a lack of upward drivers currently, and there may be a decline risk around the holiday [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend. Arbitrage: Hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short coil - rebar spreads. Options: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average cost of molten iron and billet in Tangshan decreased slightly. On the 24th, the coking coal auction prices in Linfen increased significantly with a low flow - rate. Coke prices in different ports and regions are provided [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke market continued to oscillate at night. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material replenishment. Spot prices are rising. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, which supports coking coal prices. However, the demand and profit of steel limit the upside potential of raw materials [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term shock adjustment; in the medium - term, buy on dips with caution on the upside. Arbitrage: Try to enter long coking coal 1 - 5 spreads at low prices [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Minister of Commerce emphasized efforts to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. Local government bond issuance reached a record high. Global crude steel production data for August and January - August are provided. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract are given [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated narrowly at night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines has increased. Terminal demand in China has weakened while overseas demand remains high. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, the rapid weakening of third - quarter demand may not be priced in, so the price may face pressure at high levels [12][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: No clear strategy mentioned. Arbitrage: Not mentioned. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: On the 24th, the transaction prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port are provided. The government issued a work plan for the stable growth of the building materials industry [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price was slightly stronger on the 24th. Supply remained high, and although iron - water production was high, there was a risk of decline in the future. The anti - involution sentiment in the market drove up the price, but it can still be used as a short position in the industrial chain. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore price was stable, and the silicomanganese price was slightly weaker. Supply was high, demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, and the cost was supported by low - inventory manganese ore. It can also be used as a short position in the industrial chain after the sentiment fades [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Use for high - level hedging of spot; after the sentiment fades, use as a short position in the industrial chain. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell straddle option combinations [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short - term, but there may be a demand recovery after the holiday and a potential inventory inflection point. The "15th Five - Year Plan" and peak season demand will affect the price trend [4]. - The coking coal and coke market is currently in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, there are policy disturbances on the supply side, so a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][10]. - The iron ore market has seen prices oscillate. The price may be under pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter [15]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure. For both silicon iron and manganese silicon, it is recommended to short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related Information**: If the South Korean K - steel bill is implemented, China's medium - thick plate and hot - rolled coil exports to South Korea may be severely affected. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major regions declined [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was weak and volatile last night. Construction steel trading volume on the 23rd was 92,000 tons. There was a production divergence among the five major steel products last week. Currently in the off - season, demand recovery is average. After the parade, steel demand followed the seasonal pattern. Iron - water production is expected to remain high this week. Steel demand may recover after the holiday [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: maintain a volatile and weak trend; Arbitrage: hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; Options: wait and see [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, Mongolian coal ports will be closed for 7 days. Recently, the coking coal spot price has generally risen, and coke has a price increase expectation. Various coke and coking coal warehouse - receipt prices are provided [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The night - session continued to oscillate. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material restocking. The spot price is still rising. In the long - run, coal production may be restricted by policies, but the upside of coking coal prices is limited by steel demand and profits [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short - term shock adjustment, medium - term buy on dips with caution about the upside [10][12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. In August, the national electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From September 15th - 21st, the transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased year - on - year. Iron ore spot prices in Qingdao Port declined [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated last night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The third - quarter supply of major mines improved, and non - mainstream mines maintained high shipments. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. The price may be under pressure at high levels [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: mainly hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: mainly use circuit - breaker accumulative put options [16][18]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 23rd, the prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were reported. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon iron, the spot price fluctuated on the 23rd. Supply is at a high level, and demand may decline in the future. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5700 - 5800. For manganese silicon, the manganese ore spot price was weak, and the supply was still high. It can be shorted near the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 [20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: short on rebounds due to high supply pressure; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell straddle option combinations [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short - term, with potential for further increase if downstream demand exceeds expectations in October. The "14th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market fluctuation. [4] - The coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the strategy is to buy on dips later. The supply of coking coal has policy support, but the upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11][12] - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September. [13][14] - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by high supply pressure. Ferrosilicon may rebound slightly due to market sentiment, while silicomanganese will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. [15][16] 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; from January to August, the cumulative crude steel output was 671.806 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In August, automobile production was 2.752 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%; from January to August, automobile production was 20.829 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The spot prices of steel in different regions decreased by 10 yuan. [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile and slightly stronger at night. This week, the hot - metal output increased slightly, and the national building - material output decreased. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the rate slowed down. Downstream demand improved with the temperature drop. Market news and low valuation led to the price increase. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve, and there is support for the black - metal sector. [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel maintains a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [4][5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 17th, the coking - coal auction prices in Linfen mostly rose. This week, the national raw - coal daily output increased, with Shanxi's output rising. There were news of coal - mine production cuts and capacity checks. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts were provided. [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The coking - coal spot market sentiment was good recently. The supply of coking coal is restricted by policies, but imported coal provides some supplement. The upside is restricted by steel demand and profit. [9][11] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, and buy on dips later. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see. [12] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut twice more this year. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released. The real - estate market showed signs of stabilization. The spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the main contract were provided. [13] - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore oscillated narrowly at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased, mainly from Brazilian mines. Terminal steel demand weakened in China but remained high overseas. The iron - ore price may face pressure at high levels. [13][14] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: The spot prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port on the 17th were provided. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is expected to cut 50 basis points more in 2025. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weaker on the 17th. Supply decreased slightly but remained high. Market sentiment was boosted by the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The spot price of silicomanganese was slightly weaker, with increased production and high iron - water output, but the demand was dragged down by the decline in electric - furnace operating rates. The cost of manganese ore supported the price. [15][16] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Follow the market and be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the target should not be too high due to high supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations at high prices. [18]

Group 1: Positive Signals from the Meeting - The meeting indicates that China's economy is showing steady progress, with major economic indicators performing well and high-quality development achieving new results [3][4] - The emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will be adjusted to respond to external shocks or downward pressures [3][5] - The meeting highlights the importance of balancing long-term and short-term policies, ensuring continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and predictability [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Policy Expectations - The macroeconomic policy is expected to maintain a "steady progress" tone, with fiscal policies accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds and long-term government bonds [7][8] - Monetary policy is anticipated to remain "moderately loose," focusing on structural tools to support technology innovation, consumption recovery, and small and micro enterprises [7][8] - The combination of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies is expected to create a synergistic effect to counter external uncertainties and facilitate the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][8] Group 3: Capital Market Development - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming for higher quality development to better serve the real economy and investors [10][11] - Capital market reforms are expected to improve market transparency, pricing efficiency, and diversify financing options for enterprises at different development stages [10][11] - The focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding long-term capital into the market is crucial for maintaining a positive market momentum [11] Group 4: Support for Emerging Industries - The capital market is seen as a vital support for the financing and growth of emerging industries, with platforms like the Sci-Tech Innovation Board providing equity financing channels [13][14] - The market's resource allocation mechanisms are expected to accelerate the transformation of innovative achievements into commercial applications [14][15] - The integration of technology and industry innovation is anticipated to be driven by capital market dynamics, fostering a symbiotic relationship between capital and industry [14][15] Group 5: Consumer Demand and Economic Growth - The meeting stresses the importance of boosting consumption as a core driver of economic growth, with policies aimed at enhancing disposable income and optimizing the consumption environment [17][18] - The dual-track approach of stimulating consumption and effective investment is highlighted as a sustainable strategy for economic recovery [18][19] - The focus on improving social security and reducing consumer concerns is expected to enhance consumer confidence and spending [17][18] Group 6: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The meeting outlines a clear commitment to addressing "involution" in competition, with policies aimed at optimizing market competition order and regulating disorderly competition among enterprises [20][21] - The emphasis on legal governance and industry standards is expected to promote a healthier and more orderly market environment [21] - The central government's role in coordinating efforts to build a unified market is crucial for resolving short-term profit pressures faced by enterprises [21] Group 7: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors such as technology innovation, consumer goods, and small and micro enterprises, driven by supportive policies [22][24] - The focus on high-quality infrastructure projects and major strategic initiatives is expected to attract investment in areas like 5G and data centers [24] - Emerging industries, particularly in AI, semiconductor, and biomedicine, are projected to benefit from policy support and present significant investment potential [24][25]

Market Overview - The CSI All Share Index experienced fluctuations but ultimately closed up by 0.60% on July 4, 2025, with over 3,000 stocks rising, indicating a broad market rally[1] - On July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.9%[2] Capital Flow - On July 3, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 6.79 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 16.28 billion yuan[3] - The top three sectors for capital inflow were consumer electronics, components, and chemical pharmaceuticals, while the largest outflows were from diversified finance, state-owned banks, and marine equipment[3] Industry Insights - In May 2025, China's automotive exports reached $20.67 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.2%[7] - The average monthly sales of electric bicycles through trade-in programs from January to June 2025 grew by 113.5%, with a total of 8.465 million units traded in, which is 6.1 times that of 2024[8] Future Projections - The low-code and no-code software market in China is projected to reach 12.98 billion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.4% over the next five years[9] Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need to optimize capital market mechanisms to better support technological and industrial innovation[5] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted the importance of data resource circulation and market-oriented reforms to enhance urban economic vitality and governance[4]