Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy is continuously recovering, and the bull market pattern remains unchanged despite global uncertainties [1][8] - Geopolitical uncertainties are making the global economy more fragile, but in the medium to long term, capital is expected to flow back to non-US economies, benefiting global economic and financial system rebalancing [8][24] - China's stock market is expected to return to a normal valuation repair process, with a mid-term bull market pattern still intact [14][9] Group 2 - Current economic recovery in China is supported by a complete industrial system, a large domestic market, rich human capital, and enhanced technological innovation capabilities [10] - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5% due to positive fiscal policies and a moderately loose monetary environment [10][11] - The RMB is expected to remain stable in the medium to long term, supported by a high trade surplus and inflow of overseas capital into Chinese markets [12][10] Group 3 - The US economy is facing a negative cycle driven by policy uncertainty, with GDP showing negative growth in Q1, indicating that tariff disruptions are beginning to drag on economic growth [18][16] - The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates as early as June, with a total of 3 to 4 cuts anticipated throughout the year [18][19] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is emerging, with a reassessment of the dollar's dominance in the global financial system due to rising policy uncertainties and fiscal deficits [20][25] Group 4 - The trend of "sell America, buy Asia" is likely to continue, as capital flows out of US assets into Asian markets, which are perceived as having lower valuations and more stable policies [24][26] - The impact of tariff policies on the economy will gradually manifest in macro data over the next 1 to 2 months, prompting investors to adopt defensive strategies [27][11] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to European investment-grade bonds and stocks, as well as low-risk bonds in Asian markets, while considering higher allocations to gold [27][11]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has drawn significant attention as it broke below the psychological level of 140, declining by as much as 0.7% to reach 139.90, marking the strongest level since September of the previous year [1] - The strong movement of the yen is influenced by complex economic and policy backgrounds, including heightened market risk aversion due to the ongoing trade war initiated by Trump, leading investors to sell US assets in favor of safe-haven assets like the yen [3] - Technical analysis indicates that if the yen clearly breaks the 140 level or the mid-level of 139 reached in September of last year, it could trigger further buying of yen and selling of USD, accelerating the yen's appreciation [4] Group 2 - The rapid fluctuations in the exchange rate are viewed negatively by many in the economic community, as they increase operational risks for businesses and disrupt normal international trade [5] - Despite the USD/JPY not significantly declining after breaking the 140 level, the overarching theme of "selling America" persists, indicating ongoing concerns about the US economic outlook [5] - The Bank of Japan currently sees no need to change its gradual rate hike stance, although market expectations for a rate hike have shifted, with the likelihood of a rate hike by the end of the year now at 59% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing pressure on the US dollar and US assets due to President Trump's threats against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to a significant sell-off in dollar assets [1][2] - The US dollar index fell over 1% on the 21st, reaching a three-year low of 97.96, while the Swiss franc appreciated by 1%, marking a ten-year high against the dollar [1] - The yields on US Treasury bonds also rose, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.36% and the 30-year yield hitting 4.86% on the same day [1] Group 2 - Trump's comments about Powell, including calling him a political player and suggesting he should resign, have intensified market reactions and raised concerns among foreign investors regarding US assets [1][2] - Legal experts suggest that while it may be difficult for Trump to remove Powell, creating an impression of potential changes in the Federal Reserve's independence could impact market sentiment [2] - Hedge funds have been actively selling the dollar, with data indicating they have been the most bearish on the dollar since October of the previous year [2]

除美元外，美国国债21日同样遭抛售。其中，10年期美国国债收益率当天一度上涨至4.36%；30年期美 国国债收益率一度上涨至4.86%。美国标准普尔500股指期货下挫超1%。 此前，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特18日说，特朗普正研究解除鲍威尔职务事宜。 彭博社认为，继本月初美国政府公布所谓"对等关税"后，鲍威尔可能遭解职的消息对美元资产造成新冲 击。此外，特朗普曾说，美元贬值有利美国产品出口，同样对美元构成下行压力。 随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁解职美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，美元资产21日遭加速抛 售。美国彭博新闻社当天报道，"卖出美国"交易势头增强。 美元指数21日盘中下跌超1%，一度跌至97.96，创三年来新低。与之对比，瑞郎对美元汇率当天上涨 1%，创10年来新高。欧元和日元对美元汇率当天均上涨超过1%。其中，欧元对美元汇率已反弹至超三 年来新高。 与此同时，纽约黄金期货价格当天一度上涨至每盎司3407.3美元，再创历史新高。 彭博社援引知情交易员的话报道，多家对冲基金21日参与卖出美元。美国商品期货交易委员会数据显 示，自去年10月以来，对冲基金是最看空美元的交易势力。 一些分 ...