特朗普威胁，如果欧洲抛售美国资产 将采取"大规模报复" 1月22日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，如果欧洲国家为回应他的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，他将进行"强 烈报复"。 特朗普在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受采访时说，"如果他们要这么做，那就做吧。但你知道，如 果真发生这种事，我们这边会进行强烈报复，而且我们手里牌都齐全。" 特朗普此前（现已放弃）曾威胁：为了推动对格陵兰岛的控制，将对八个欧洲国家的商品大幅加征关 税。这一表态引发市场猜测，欧洲可能会抛售数万亿美元的美国债券和股票作为反制手段。 丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension本周宣布计划退出1亿美元的美国国债投资；格陵兰的SISA Pension则 表示，正在考虑是否应继续投资美国股票。 不过，"卖出美国"（Sell America）策略很可能并不容易实施。大部分相关资产由私人基金持有，不在 各国政府直接控制之下；但一些大型持有者——包括挪威的主权财富基金——若集中抛售，仍可能对美 国资本市场造成影响。 瑞银集团首席执行官Sergio Ermotti表示，投资者若抛售美国资产和美元，是在下一个"相当危险的赌 注"。 Ermotti周二在瑞士达沃斯举行 ...

回顾去年，市场曾热议"去美元化"，担忧特朗普以关税为核心的贸易政策可能促使全球投资者大幅削减 对美国资产的配置。然而，事实并未如部分担忧那般演变。据智通财经APP了解，美国财政部数据显 示，去年前11个月，海外投资者净买入美国证券规模高达1.27万亿美元，其中很大一部分资金在人工智 能热潮推动下涌入华尔街。 但自那以后，局势明显发生变化。特朗普上任以来推出的一系列争议性政策，被市场视为动摇了过去数 十年形成的跨大西洋政治与经济秩序，也重新点燃了对做空美国资产的讨论。 从存量角度看，全球投资者确实握有庞大的美国资产。最新官方统计显示，海外投资者持有的美国资产 约为68.9万亿美元，而美国持有的海外资产约为41.3万亿美元，两者差额约27.6万亿美元。这一差额即 美国的净国际投资头寸，无论以名义规模还是占GDP比重(超过90%)衡量，均创下历史新高。 在交易语境中，这意味着全球对美国处于"净多头"状态。如此高度集中的配置，尤其是在股票资产上， 正被越来越多投资者视为悬在美国市场上方的"达摩克利斯之剑"。在特朗普强硬政策引发欧洲多国不安 的背景下，市场开始重新评估，全球投资者是否愿意继续维持这一高度集中的头寸，还是 ...

不过，"卖出美国"（Sell America）策略很可能并不容易实施。大部分相关资产由私人基金持有，不在 各国政府直接控制之下；但一些大型持有者——包括挪威的主权财富基金——若集中抛售，仍可能对美 国资本市场造成影响。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特本周早些时候淡化了丹麦方面的抛售行为，称他"完全不担心"。 【导读】若欧洲抛售美资产特朗普将报复 大家好，关注一下特朗普对于"卖出美国"交易叙事的反击。 特朗普威胁，如果欧洲抛售美国资产 将采取"大规模报复" 1月22日晚间，美国总统特朗普表示，如果欧洲国家为回应他的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，他将进行"强 烈报复"。 特朗普在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛期间接受采访时说，"如果他们要这么做，那就做吧。但你知道，如 果真发生这种事，我们这边会进行强烈报复，而且我们手里牌都齐全。" 特朗普此前（现已放弃）曾威胁：为了推动对格陵兰岛的控制，将对八个欧洲国家的商品大幅加征关 税。这一表态引发市场猜测，欧洲可能会抛售数万亿美元的美国债券和股票作为反制手段。 丹麦养老基金AkademikerPension本周宣布计划退出1亿美元的美国国债投资；格陵兰的SISA Pension则 表示，正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats of "massive retaliation" against European countries if they sell U.S. assets in response to his tariff threats, highlighting the potential impact on U.S. capital markets and the complexities of implementing a "Sell America" strategy [2][3][5]. Group 1: Trump's Threats and Responses - Trump stated that if European nations sell U.S. assets as a response to his tariff threats, the U.S. will retaliate strongly, indicating that the U.S. has various options available [3]. - The speculation arose that Europe might sell trillions of dollars in U.S. bonds and stocks as a countermeasure to Trump's previous tariff threats on eight European countries [3]. Group 2: European Fund Reactions - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension announced plans to exit $100 million in U.S. Treasury investments, while Greenland's SISA Pension is considering its U.S. stock investments due to Trump's actions [3][5]. - SISA Pension, managing approximately 7 billion Danish kroner (around $1.1 billion), has about 50% of its exposure in the U.S., primarily in publicly traded stocks, and is discussing the implications of reducing its U.S. investments [5][6]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet downplayed the significance of Denmark's actions, stating that their investments in U.S. debt are negligible [4]. - UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned that selling U.S. assets and dollars could be a "dangerous bet," emphasizing the strength of the U.S. economy and the challenges of completely divesting from it [6].

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that Asian currencies may remain "relatively stable or slightly stronger than the dollar" by 2026, supported by good foreign exchange reserves and optimistic macroeconomic conditions in the region [1] - Analysts note that there are no extreme imbalances in trade and fiscal policies, and Asian policymakers are unlikely to encourage significant appreciation of their currencies against the dollar due to ongoing geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Gold Demand and Market Trends - T. Rowe Price analysts highlight that central bank demand for gold remains strong and largely insensitive to price changes, providing "durable support" for gold as a strategic diversification tool [2] - The macro environment for gold remains favorable, with ongoing policy uncertainty and pressure on the dollar, benefiting gold as an asset outside the fiat currency system [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury and Market Dynamics - The "Sell America" trade is identified as a key driver behind recent market movements, as investors seek to reduce exposure to perceived risks associated with U.S. policies [2] - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields reached a peak of 4.313%, the highest since August of the previous year, with a closing yield of 4.287% [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields include the decline in Japanese bonds, tariff threats from Trump, and the momentum from breaking the critical 4.20% technical level [2] Group 4: Japanese Bond Market - Following significant sell-offs, Japan's 30-year bond yields fell by about 20 basis points to 3.71%, although they still increased by 22 basis points for the week [3] - Japanese policymakers are urged to respond quickly as market volatility shows no signs of easing, and recent price rebounds may not be sustainable [3] Group 5: UK Inflation and Economic Projections - The UK inflation rate for December 2025 rose to 3.4%, exceeding the expected 3.3%, while the Bank of England is set to make a decision on interest rates next month [3] - Despite sluggish economic growth, the UK maintains the highest inflation rate among G7 countries, although a significant slowdown in price increases is anticipated in the coming months [3] - Financial markets expect the Bank of England to potentially lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, each by 25 basis points [3]

Group 1 - Overseas natural gas prices surged, with US natural gas futures rising over 28% [2][16] - The highest price for natural gas reached 3.990, marking a 26.30% increase from the previous close of 3.103 [3][17] - Weather forecasts predict colder temperatures, which are expected to drive up gas prices further, particularly in Europe [4][18] Group 2 - Poland's central bank approved a plan to purchase up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons, positioning Poland among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [5][19] - International gold prices reached new highs, with New York gold futures rising over 3% and London spot gold increasing over 2% [6][20] Group 3 - The US stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling 1.76%, the S&P 500 dropping 2.06%, and the Nasdaq down 2.39% [9][23] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.76 basis points to 4.2906%, indicating a decline in bond prices [9][23] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price limits for various futures contracts, including copper, aluminum, gold, and silver [10][24]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-21 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-21 所长 早读 地缘风险带来市场不确定性 观点分享： 昨日市场仍出现了非常剧烈的波动，日债暴跌叠加格林兰岛的地缘冲突最终导致欧美股 债汇三杀，vix 指数飙升，贵金属再创历史新高。昨日市场对日债长债出现了非常明显的抛 售，日本提前选举预期、扩张性财政叙事、寿险资金持续减持、以及疲弱的超长期国债拍卖 互相叠加踩踏，最终导致了市场疯狂的对于日本长债的抛售，日本 40 年期长债收益率历史 性突破 4%，20 年、30 年债收益率单日飙升逾 20 个基点，在这种环境下，日债的税率飙升 直接带崩了欧洲和美国，日本作为全球最大美债持有国之一，长端利率失控的风险外溢让全 球市场都出现了巨大的震动，长端美债也遭受了抛售潮，10 年期美债收益率攀升 8 个基点至 4.293%，欧债方面德债和法债也都均出现了长端收益率的上行。债券长端收益率飙升的风险 外溢，也导致了大量股票被抛售，昨晚欧股及美股均出现不同幅度下跌，市场的恐慌情绪叠 加美国对于格林兰岛武力控制威胁和欧洲议会的反击，最终导致了市场的股债汇三 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is shifting towards a "sell America" strategy due to rising geopolitical tensions and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. government [1][2][4] - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 870.74 points (1.76%) to close at 48,488.59 points, and the S&P 500 falling by 143.15 points (2.06%) to 6,796.86 points [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," surged by 26.67% to 20.09, marking the highest level since November 25, 2025, indicating increased investor anxiety [3] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.316%, the highest since August 25, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over the U.S. government's financial situation [1][3] - European investors are contemplating halting investments in U.S. assets or even selling off existing holdings due to the political climate, although significant action may require further escalation [5] - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical tensions are notable, there are no immediate signs of a financial weaponization risk between the U.S. and Europe [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point in global financial markets, with international gold prices driven by risk sentiment, reaching historical highs near $4720, reflecting a "risk-driven rally" due to multiple uncertainties [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have intensified, with U.S. President Trump reiterating threats of tariffs against European allies, potentially starting from February 1, which has raised concerns about renewed transatlantic trade tensions [1] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has escalated, with Russia launching drone and missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages during a critical winter period, heightening energy security concerns in Europe [1] Financial Conditions - A weakening U.S. dollar has provided crucial financial support for rising gold prices, as international funds are reducing their allocation to U.S. assets amid trade tensions and political uncertainties [2] - Despite discussions around the Federal Reserve's leadership and a reduction in aggressive rate cut expectations for 2026, the dollar index has declined, diminishing the dollar's appeal as a safe haven [2] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a clear and stable upward channel, with prices consistently rising above the channel's midline, indicating strong bullish momentum [2] - The price has recently broken through previous consolidation ranges and is now testing resistance around $4709–$4720, which is a critical battleground for bulls and bears [2] Future Outlook - If gold prices can effectively absorb selling pressure above $4700 and complete horizontal consolidation, there is potential for a further push towards the $4816 resistance level [3] - The upcoming U.S. PCE price index and related macro data will be pivotal, as they are closely watched by the Federal Reserve and will directly impact market interest rate expectations and the dollar's trajectory [3] - Overall, the current rise in gold prices reflects increased global uncertainty rather than solely economic fundamentals or interest rate logic, with gold's safe-haven attributes likely to be re-evaluated until clear signals of easing geopolitical tensions emerge [3]

随着投资者对美国市场波动的担忧加剧，一波被称为"卖出美国"的交易浪潮正在悄然兴起，促使资本寻求更稳定的避风港，加拿大股市因此展现 出二十年来未曾有过的相对优势。 加拿大股市刚刚创下二十年来相对于美股的最佳年度表现，S&P/TSX 综合指数去年跃升28%，远超标普500指数16%的涨幅。这一趋势在2026年开 年得以延续，截至目前，加拿大基准指数已上涨3.7%，优于美股1.7%的涨幅。资金管理者押注这种优异表现将持续下去，在美国市场动荡不安之 际，促使投资者转向波动性较低的替代市场。 市场观察人士认为，特朗普政府对美联储及主席鲍威尔不断升级的攻击，是美国资产面临的最重大潜在干扰源。加拿大丰业银行的策略师 Hugo Ste-Marie 和 Jean-Michel Gauthier 指出，这一局势可能会重燃去年4月出现的温和版"卖出美国"交易，导致美债收益率上升、美股表现不佳以及美 元贬值。 这股"卖出美国"交易风潮的卷土重来可能给美元带来新的压力，并进一步压制美股表现。Janus Henderson Investors 全球客户投资组合管理主管 Seth Meyer 警告称，全球投资者正开始要求为持有美国资产获得 ...