距离国庆假期还有一周，身边不少朋友却陷入了要不要退机票的纠结。 早在今年暑期，家在上海的朋友小龙就锁定了三亚某五星酒店的国庆套餐，机票也抢在涨价之前定好，早去晚回，一切看上去挺好。 周一开始，西北太平洋的"风王"桦加沙台风对海南旅游的影响逐渐明显之际，小龙还信誓旦旦地称"牛马的假期不容更改，管它下不下雨，下刀子我都要 去。" 但台风它真来了，去程航班被取消了，连返程机票也得跟航空公司打电话退掉。 小龙说："我真没想到，海不蓝、风很大我都能忍，但航班取消，是真的一点机会不给啊。" 另一位朋友小美，更无奈。 她原本定的是9月26日飞三亚，五天后返程的错峰短假期，时间很巧，正好撞在台风离境前后。 01 "到底要不要退票啊？有没有懂的人来说说看？"她把三亚的天气截图贴在社交媒体上。 虽然当地官方发布消息称"台风天气对海南旅游影响不大"，但一眼看去全是雨的天气预报，让小美完全提不起兴趣了。 下面的评论区，更是有人直白留言："为了让你们来海南旅游直接说无影响，到时候下雨让你们酒店住着。" 十一暴雨台风，这不仅是旅客们的烦恼。 广东某热门景区酒店负责人A先生告诉我，今年暑期他们就受天气影响吃了大亏，好不容易熬到国庆黄金周前 ...

As we enter the final quarter of 2025, the global commodity markets for wheat and soybeans are once again proving to be highly sensitive to a complex interplay of geopolitical events, shifting trade policies, and distinctive weather patterns for this time of the year. While the weather in the U.S. proved to be a make-or-break factor for soybeans during the critical pod-filling period, with 22% of U.S. acreage in drought by early September, the overall domestic output remains essentially unchanged from the p ...

Core Insights - Vietnam's coffee exports in August 2025 reached approximately 95,000 tons, generating over $429 million in revenue [1] - In the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam exported a total of 1.2 million tons of coffee, amounting to $6.42 billion, with year-on-year increases of 8.7% in volume and 59.1% in value [1] Market Dynamics - The significant increase in Vietnam's coffee export volume and value is primarily attributed to a nearly 46.5% rise in international coffee prices year-on-year [1] - The El Niño phenomenon has led to reduced coffee supply from major producing countries Brazil and Indonesia, while demand remains strong in Europe and North America [1] Key Export Markets - Germany, Italy, and Spain are identified as the top three importers of Vietnamese coffee, collectively accounting for nearly 30% of Vietnam's total coffee export revenue [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

Core Viewpoint - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon starting from September, which may influence global weather and climate conditions in the coming months, despite many regions still experiencing above-average temperatures [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **La Niña Phenomenon**: The La Niña phenomenon, characterized by a significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, may re-emerge from September 2023 [1] - **Current Conditions**: Since March 2025, neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) have persisted, with a low probability of El Niño occurring between September and December [1] - **Temperature Expectations**: Despite the potential return of La Niña, temperatures in many areas of the Northern Hemisphere and a large part of the Southern Hemisphere are expected to remain above average from September to November [1]

Core Insights - The latest report from the American Meteorological Society, titled "Annual Climate Status Report," warns that multiple climate indicators are set to break records in 2024, including greenhouse gas concentrations, land and ocean temperatures, sea level heights, and ocean heat content [1][2] Group 1: Greenhouse Gas Concentrations - The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached 422.8±0.1 parts per million (ppm), a 52% increase from the pre-industrial level of 278 ppm [1] Group 2: Temperature Records - Global surface temperatures have broken records for two consecutive years, exceeding the 1991-2020 average by 0.63℃ to 0.72℃ [2] - The period from 2015 to 2024 is confirmed as the hottest decade on record, according to six authoritative datasets [2] Group 3: Ocean Temperature and Heat Waves - Influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, global sea surface temperatures are expected to reach new highs in 2024, with an increase of 0.06℃ compared to the record set in 2023 [2] - Approximately 91% of ocean areas are experiencing heat waves, while only 26% are facing cold waves [2] Group 4: Water Cycle and Extreme Weather - The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere has reached a historical high, with over 20% of global regions experiencing extreme vapor values, significantly higher than the 10% recorded in 2023 [2] Group 5: Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level Rise - Global ocean heat content has reached unprecedented levels, with measurements taken from the surface down to 2000 meters deep continuing to increase [2] - The global average sea level has set new records for 13 consecutive years, rising approximately 105.8 millimeters since the beginning of satellite monitoring in 1993 [2] Group 6: Glacier Melting - In 2024, 58 benchmark glaciers worldwide have reported mass loss for two consecutive years, marking the largest average loss in 55 years [2] - Venezuela has become the first Andean country to completely lose its glaciers, while the Conejeras Glacier in Colombia has been officially declared "dead" [2]

Group 1 - The black series futures, including coking coal and coke, experienced significant increases, with coking coal rising by 3.18% and coke by 3.15% on July 2 [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The National Climate Center predicts that high temperatures this year will be intense and prolonged, with northern China potentially exceeding 42°C for over 30 days [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date data shows that the cumulative coal sales of key monitored enterprises reached 121,815.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, with thermal coal and coking coal sales down by 5.3% and 4%, respectively, while anthracite coal sales increased by 7.3% [1] - Longjiang Securities anticipates seasonal demand improvement due to the summer peak and the "Golden September and Silver October" period, alongside a potential contraction in imported coal volumes [1] - The China Coal Association has called for production control and quality improvement, with safety inspections expected to remain stringent following June's safety month [1] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities views the next four months as a critical verification period for fundamentals, predicting that the second quarter of 2025 will mark the bottom of the coal industry's fundamentals [1] - Companies with a small proportion of non-coal business, such as Pingjiang Co., New Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Haohua Energy, and China Coal Energy, are significantly undervalued [2] - Companies with a large proportion of non-coal business, such as Huaibei Mining and Shaanxi Energy, are even more undervalued [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the case that the purchase of new cotton has a relatively limited boost to the market, if there is no obvious improvement in the demand side, cotton prices may weaken; if the demand side performs well, it will form a certain bullish drive for the market [5][50][57] - Considering the high uncertainty of macro - factors this year, with the expiration of the US global tariff extension in July and the Sino - US tariff extension in August, there may be great uncertainties. If the tariff issue eases, it will bring an optimistic impact on the market, and commodity prices may strengthen [5][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of the year, cotton prices were mainly affected by macro factors. Due to the lack of obvious changes in the fundamentals, cotton prices oscillated initially. In April, Trump's global tariff increase led to a pessimistic market outlook on the global economy, causing cotton prices to fall to around 12,400. Later, due to the easing of Trump's tariff attitude and better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations in Switzerland, cotton prices rebounded and then entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4][9] - In the first half of the year, the fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and there were no obvious contradictions. The signing situation was acceptable. Although China's signing volume decreased significantly, the signing volume of other Southeast Asian countries increased significantly. Overall, US cotton prices oscillated within a range [4][9] 3.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply and consumption both decreased. Total supply decreased by 170,000 tons to 2.547 million tons, and total demand decreased by 70,000 tons to 2.563 million tons. Both are at medium levels over the years, and it is expected that there will be no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market [9][52] - Currently, the El Niño index indicates neither a La Niña nor an El Niño phenomenon, and the probability of extreme weather in the future is expected to be small [9][52] 3.3 United States - US cotton production is slightly reduced compared to the previous year. According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, the current US cotton production is expected to be 3.04 million tons. Although the drought situation has improved recently, the abandonment rate may increase later, which will affect US cotton production [14][53] - As of June 22, the cotton planting rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 92%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points slower than the average of the past five years. The good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [14] - The signing performance of US cotton is poor. As of June 12, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 2.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the cumulative shipment volume was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [15] 3.4 Other Countries - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year. As of the week of June 22, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [26] - As of the week from June 12 to June 18, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 60.6 mm, 22.2 mm higher than the normal level and 24 mm higher than the same period last year [26] - As of the week of June 21, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The 2024/25 season's Brazilian cotton total production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [29] 3.5 Domestic Market - In the first stage before the new cotton is listed, China's cotton supply may be tight due to the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the lowest import volume of cotton in the same period over the years. Although the demand is currently in the off - season, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton prices will oscillate slightly stronger [32][54] - As of June 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 - season cotton was 6.12 million tons, and the sales progress was 91.7% [32] - As of mid - June, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.12 million tons, and the Xinjiang inventory was 1.97 million tons. The export speed has been fast in recent months, and the commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years [33] - In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 34,500 tons, a record low in nearly 20 years. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 432,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.6% [33] - In May, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 122.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative retail sales from January to May were 613.8 billion yuan, at a high level in the same period over the years. In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [34] - In the second stage, considering the increase in the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to be similar to or slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season. The purchase price of new cotton may not be high, and its boost to the market may be limited. If the demand improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [47][54][55] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Internationally, the supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market is not obvious in the 2025/26 season. The production of US cotton may be affected by the abandonment rate, and the signing performance is poor. The future trading logic of US cotton will gradually shift to weather factors [52][53][54] - Domestically, before the new cotton is listed, Zhengzhou cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger. After that, if the demand side improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [54][55] - Strategy recommendations: It is expected that US cotton will mostly oscillate in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Food Crisis Report indicates that 295.3 million people in 53 countries will face severe food insecurity in 2024, an increase of 13.7 million from 2023, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth [1] - The primary drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition globally remain conflicts, economic shocks, extreme weather, and forced displacement, which have devastating impacts on already vulnerable regions [1] Group 1: Causes of Food Insecurity - Conflicts are the leading cause of severe food insecurity, affecting approximately 140 million people in 20 countries and regions, with famine reported in Sudan and critical situations in Gaza, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali [1] - Economic shocks, including inflation and currency devaluation, have led 15 countries into hunger, impacting around 59.4 million people, with significant crises in Afghanistan, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen [1] - Extreme weather events, particularly those related to the El Niño phenomenon, have caused food crises in 18 countries, affecting over 96 million people, with severe impacts noted in Southern Africa, South Asia, and the Horn of Africa [1] Group 2: Humanitarian Funding Outlook - The report forecasts a significant reduction in global humanitarian funding for food and nutrition by 2025, suggesting that the issue of global hunger will persist [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry in China, focusing on the impact of climate conditions on coal production and related agricultural activities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drought Conditions**: In spring 2025, eastern and central China experienced varying degrees of drought, particularly in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with severe drought persisting in Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, and southern Jiangsu. The average national precipitation from January 1 to May 11, 2025, was 110.76 mm, approximately 13% lower than the average of the past 30 years, marking the lowest level since 2011 [2][3][4] - **Climate Influences**: The reduced precipitation is attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which hindered moisture transport to eastern China. The La Niña phenomenon exacerbated the lack of precipitation during winter and spring [2][3][4] - **Future Weather Predictions**: For the upcoming weeks, moderate to severe meteorological drought is expected to continue in parts of northwest China and southern Jiangsu and Henan, while southern regions will experience increased rainfall, with some areas seeing precipitation levels 30% to 60% above normal [4][10] - **Extreme Weather Events**: The 2025 flood season (June to August) is anticipated to witness frequent extreme weather events, including both drought and flooding. Northern regions are expected to receive more rainfall, while southern areas will see less, leading to significant flooding risks in the Haihe, Yellow River, Liaohe, and Huaihe basins [10][11] - **Typhoon Activity**: An increase in the number and intensity of typhoons is expected this year, with one or two potentially impacting China. The paths of these typhoons will be influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system and the La Niña phenomenon [10][30] Additional Important Content - **Wind Events**: There has been a notable increase in strong wind events since winter 2025, posing challenges to agriculture, safety, and environmental protection. This is linked to significant atmospheric circulation patterns [5][6][21] - **Temperature Trends**: The summer of 2025 is projected to be warmer than average, with temperatures expected to rise by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius nationwide, particularly in the Yangtze River basin and southern regions, where temperatures may exceed 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal [4][35] - **Impact on Agriculture**: The ongoing drought and high temperatures are likely to adversely affect agricultural production, especially for winter wheat in severely impacted areas [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between climate conditions and the coal industry, as well as the broader implications for agriculture and weather patterns in China.