Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - WTI: Opened at $58.94, closed at $59.52, high of $60.51, low of $58.53, up 0.3%, volume of 46.86 million hands [6] - Brent: Opened at $63.42, closed at $63.44, high of $64.35, low of $62.69, up 0.35%, volume of 49.82 million hands [6] - SC: Opened at 440 yuan/barrel, closed at 440.8 yuan/barrel, high of 444.9 yuan/barrel, low of 47.3 yuan/barrel, up 0.52%, volume of 7.81 million hands [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - US is promoting the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry, and the first batch of Venezuelan oil has been sold, which is marginally bearish for the supply side [6] - Venezuela is likely to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day this year [6] - Iran situation has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. Continue to monitor the Middle - East situation [6] - Geopolitical conflicts that do not substantially affect crude oil production and exports are good selling points [6] - Short - term oil prices are expected to follow the Middle - East situation, and be cautious about chasing up [6] Group 3: Industry News - The International Energy Agency says that due to sufficient supply, oil and gas prices will face downward pressure for several years [7] - Due to bad weather, operations at four oil terminals in Libya have been suspended [7] - Russia may lift the gasoline export ban on producers in February [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][13][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is accelerating the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and has started selling the first batch of Venezuelan oil, which is marginally bearish for the supply side. It is highly likely that Venezuela will achieve a daily production increase of 100,000 barrels this year. The situation in Iran has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. Geopolitical conflicts that do not substantially affect crude oil production and exports will be good selling points. It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes Review**: WTI's opening price was $58.94, closing price was $59.43, with a maximum of $59.56, a minimum of $58.53, a daily increase of 0.15%, and a trading volume of 11.99 million hands. Brent's opening price was $63.63, closing price was $64.18, with a maximum of $64.39, a minimum of $63.26, a daily increase of 0.08%, and a trading volume of 22.42 million hands. SC's opening price was 437.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 437 yuan/barrel, with a maximum of 440.8 yuan/barrel, a minimum of 436.3 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 1.27%, and a trading volume of 5.2 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3.2 行业要闻 - The International Energy Agency states that due to sufficient supply, oil and gas prices will face downward pressure for several years. - Market news indicates that operations at four oil terminals in Libya have been suspended due to bad weather. - According to Interfax, sources say that Russia's ban on gasoline exports by producers may be lifted in February [7]. 3.3 数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and wind [9][13][20][22].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researchers: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The US is accelerating the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and has started selling the first batch of Venezuelan oil, which is marginally bearish for the supply side. Venezuela is likely to achieve a daily output increase of 100,000 barrels this year. The situation in Iran has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. Geopolitical conflicts that do not substantially affect crude oil production and exports will be good selling points. It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $59.17, closing at $59.22, with a high of $60.05, a low of $58.81, a daily increase of 0.24%, and a trading volume of 27.18 million hands. Brent's opening price was $63.74, closing at $64.20, with a high of $64.77, a low of $63.44, a daily increase of 0.69%, and a trading volume of 31.52 million hands. SC's opening price was 443.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 437.4 yuan/barrel, with a high of 446.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 436.7 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.52%, and a trading volume of 7.79 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: It is expected that short - term oil prices will follow the Middle East situation, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [6]. 3.2 Industry News - Russia's seaborne oil product exports in December increased by 17% compared to November. Angola's crude oil exports in March are expected to be 1.09 million barrels per day. Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran will not drag the country into war but will not let criminals at home and abroad go unpunished, and those associated with Israel and the US caused large - scale damage and thousands of deaths in the protests [7]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [9][13][20][22]

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing a capital inflow despite market conditions, with the Penghua Oil ETF (159697) seeing a net subscription of 10 million units, marking five consecutive days of net inflow [1] - Political tensions in Venezuela and Iran are increasing, contributing to a rise in regional political risk premiums for oil prices, while OPEC+ has decided to temporarily halt its production growth plan for the first quarter of 2026 [1] - As of January 15, 2026, the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Hengtong Co. leading at a 3.61% increase, while Jiufeng Energy is down 4.45% [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Oil and Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market has shown relative stability at the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in both futures and spot markets despite a drop in crude oil prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main asphalt futures contract opened with a premium exceeding 200 yuan/ton after the New Year holiday, ultimately rising by 111 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot market also experienced a substantial increase, with average price rises between 130 to 150 yuan/ton [1]. - The valuation of asphalt has significantly increased, with the asphalt-to-Brent crude oil ratio rising above 1.03 for futures and reaching 1.02 for spot prices, both at historically high seasonal levels [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The asphalt market fundamentals remained relatively healthy in 2025, with effective inventory reduction leading to low inventory levels, particularly in factory stocks [2]. - Despite high profits for refineries in 2025, the winter storage prices were unexpectedly high, indicating a tight supply situation [2]. - There is a potential for significant contraction in asphalt demand in 2026, which could lead to increased production by refineries due to current high profit margins [2]. Group 3: Price Pressures and Future Outlook - The recent rapid increase in asphalt prices has likely already reflected positive expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [3]. - Key variables to monitor include the implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" indicators, which could downgrade demand expectations and weaken valuation support [3]. - The ability to maintain price premiums will largely depend on fluctuations in crude oil costs, with the current crude oil market lacking a clear breakout logic [3].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Fund Performance - In 2025, oil-related funds have shown poor performance, with many funds losing over 5%, while gold and silver funds have seen substantial gains, with some gold funds increasing by over 50% [1][3]. - Specifically, three oil funds have reported losses exceeding 10%, with the largest loss being over 13% for the E Fund Oil fund [3]. - Only two oil funds managed to maintain positive returns, one tracking an oil and gas industry index and the other actively selecting oil and gas stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The Brent crude oil price has fluctuated between $50 and $80 per barrel in 2025, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel as of January 6 [2]. - Factors contributing to the sustained low oil prices include increased production from OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries, along with high output from U.S. shale oil, leading to a surplus in supply [4]. - The demand for oil has been weak due to the rapid development of green energy and electric vehicles, coupled with a lack of growth in the chemical sector [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the U.S. continues its loose monetary policy and domestic demand accelerates, there may be a window for oil prices to rise, but currently, the market remains in a weak state [5]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield significant returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year lens, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [5].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of oil funds has been lackluster compared to the significant gains seen in gold and silver funds, raising questions about when oil funds will rebound [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance - In 2025, commodity fund performance has shown divergence, with the Guotou Ruijin Silver LOF leading with over 130% gains, while multiple gold funds have increased by over 50% [1][6]. - Conversely, several oil funds have reported losses exceeding 5%, with three oil funds experiencing losses over 10%, the largest being E Fund Oil with a loss of over 13% [5][6]. Group 2: Oil Price Trends - Over the past year, gold and silver prices have reached new highs, while international oil prices have remained under pressure, fluctuating between $50 and $80 per barrel, with the latest price at $63.12 per barrel [3][4]. - The oil market is currently characterized by a weak state, primarily influenced by expectations of oversupply, as OPEC and emerging oil-producing countries have increased production, coupled with high U.S. shale oil output [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current oil market is in a bottoming phase, with the potential for a rebound if U.S. demand and economic growth accelerate alongside global industrial recovery [9][10]. - Long-term investment in oil funds may yield substantial returns if viewed through a 10 to 20-year horizon, although uncertainties regarding future demand due to energy revolutions exist [10].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **oil market**, focusing on the impact of **Venezuela's geopolitical situation** on global oil supply and demand dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuela's Oil Production**: Venezuela's current oil production is approximately **800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day**, with exports expected to be around **700,000 barrels per day** by November 2025, predominantly to China. The U.S. sanctions have significantly impacted these figures, especially after the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker on **December 9, 2025** [3][4][5]. - **Potential Increase in Production**: If U.S. sanctions are lifted and sufficient diluent supply is provided, Venezuela's oil production could increase by **400,000 barrels per day** to **1,200,000 to 1,400,000 barrels per day** within **3 to 6 months**, which would have a substantial effect on the global oil balance for 2026 [3][4][5]. - **Global Oil Supply Outlook for 2026**: The global oil market is expected to face a **daily surplus of 1,000,000 barrels**, with an overall surplus rate exceeding **2,000,000 to 2,500,000 barrels per day** due to new projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina [5][8]. - **Impact of CPC Pipeline Damage**: The destruction of the SPM2 point of the CPC pipeline has reduced current export volumes to about **1,000,000 barrels per day**. The anticipated launch of SPM3 in January 2026 could increase supply, potentially negatively impacting Brent crude prices [10]. - **Short-term vs Long-term Supply Dynamics**: In the short term, the reduction of **500,000 barrels per day** from Venezuela has limited impact due to existing inventory levels. However, the long-term outlook remains concerning due to potential oversupply if sanctions are lifted and production resumes [5][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Refinery Alternatives in China**: In the absence of Venezuelan oil, Chinese refineries may turn to Iranian heavy oil or Canadian Cold Lake as substitutes, but this would significantly increase costs, potentially by **400-450 RMB per ton** [6]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The call highlights the risks associated with geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and Venezuela, which could disrupt global oil supply chains and affect market stability [11][12]. - **Price Predictions**: The outlook for oil prices in the first half of 2026 is pessimistic, with expectations of downward pressure due to high supply levels. However, the second half of 2026 may see improvements as seasonal demand increases and supply stabilizes [14][18]. - **Impact on Chinese Refineries**: The long-term effects of Venezuela's situation on Chinese refineries are expected to be negative, as they may lose access to low-cost asphalt raw materials, regardless of whether Venezuela resumes exports [15]. Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of the oil market, emphasizing the significant influence of geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Venezuela, on global supply and pricing dynamics. Investors are advised to closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions.

Group 1 - The core event is the U.S. operation against Venezuela, resulting in the arrest of its president on charges of drug and arms trafficking, which may lead to a significant impact on global oil prices [3] - Venezuela holds approximately 17% of the world's oil reserves, and the potential recovery of its production capacity could alter the global energy supply landscape, putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] - The timing of the U.S. action is linked to domestic political needs, particularly the upcoming midterm elections, indicating a strategic move by the Trump administration to secure electoral support [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that the recent holiday data and funding may indicate a positive market opening, hinting at potential bullish trends in the financial markets [4] - There is a concern regarding the pressure on power grid construction due to the policy of "moderate advancement without excessive advancement," which could impact the energy sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Views - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel currently, a decline of 18.18%. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall supply of crude oil is expected to exceed demand, and prices will decline in Q1. Brent crude may fall below the lowest point in 2025. [4] - In 2026, on the supply side, OPEC+ will take a flexible approach to production increases. Non-OPEC+ supplies from countries like Brazil and Canada are expected to increase by about 1.15 million barrels per day. On the demand side, due to weak global economic recovery and new energy substitution, the growth rate of crude oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 1.1 million barrels per day. [4] - Low oil prices will suppress crude oil production. With Trump's economic stimulus and the arrival of the peak consumption season for crude oil, prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound in Q2. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Domestic Crude Oil Price Trends - In 2025, crude oil prices showed a weak oscillation. Brent spot prices dropped from $77 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $63 per barrel, a decline of 18.18%. The internal and external price spreads oscillated within a range throughout the year. [12] Crude Oil Supply Surplus - In 2025, global crude oil supply increased by 3.01 million barrels per day year-on-year to 106.18 million barrels per day, while demand increased by 1.14 million barrels per day year-on-year to 103.9 million barrels per day, resulting in a supply surplus of 2.24 million barrels per day. EIA predicts a surplus of 2.26 million barrels per day in 2026. [22] Crude Oil Production - OPEC+ gradually lifted production cuts in 2025. OPEC's crude oil production in October was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and in November it decreased by 1,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 28.48 million barrels per day. OPEC+ production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 43.06 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. [28] - Russia's sustainable crude oil production capacity has been declining. In October, the US imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, which account for about half of Russia's oil exports. However, Russia may reduce the impact of sanctions through various means. [35] - Iran's crude oil production decreased from 3.278 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 3.221 million barrels per day in November. Venezuela's production increased from 913,000 barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 934,000 barrels per day in November. [39] - In 2025, US oil drilling rigs decreased, but production efficiency increased. US crude oil production remained stable at around 13.5 million barrels per day and reached a record high in November. It is expected to decrease by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day in 2026. [43] - Non-OPEC+ countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are important growth points for crude oil production in 2026. EIA predicts that non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.13 million barrels per day in total. [47] China's Crude Oil Market - From January to November 2025, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.0% year-on-year to 675.07 million tons, and imports increased by 3.2% year-on-year to 521.87 million tons. The non-state trade import quota for 2026 is 257 million tons, the same as in 2025. [52] - In 2025, China's major refinery operating rates followed seasonal fluctuations, with higher rates in Q3 and lower rates in Q4. Shandong independent refineries had lower operating rates, between 45% - 55%. [57] - Affected by economic slowdown and new energy substitution, the growth rate of China's refined oil products slowed down. From January to October, the apparent consumption of aviation kerosene increased slightly, while gasoline and diesel consumption decreased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's exports of diesel and gasoline decreased, while aviation kerosene exports increased. [62] - From January to October 2025, China's natural gas heavy truck sales and new energy passenger vehicle sales increased, and their market shares also increased. It is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will further increase in 2026. [67] US Crude Oil Market - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil imports decreased by 64,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 6.525 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 655,000 barrels per day to 4.664 million barrels per day. The average net imports in 2025 decreased by 9.81% year-on-year. [72] - In November 2025, the US core CPI and overall CPI increased at a slower pace. The Fed cut interest rates three times in 2025, and the market has different expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. [77] - In 2025, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US first increased and then decreased. It is expected that the cracking spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US will have greater elasticity in 2026. [81][86] - In 2025, US gasoline and diesel demand decreased year-on-year. EIA predicts that US oil consumption demand will decrease by 10,000 barrels per day to 20.58 million barrels per day in 2026. [92] - In 2025, the operating rate of US refineries was relatively high, and the crude oil input volume also increased. After the autumn maintenance, the operating rate and input volume recovered quickly. [97] - As of the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. The strategic petroleum reserve increased for 21 consecutive weeks. [102][107][112] Global Demand and Inventory - In 2025, India's oil demand increased slightly, while Europe's decreased slightly. [117][122] - The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will slow down in 2026. Emerging markets and developing economies will also see a decline in growth rates, while developed economies will remain stable. [124] - Different institutions have different predictions for global crude oil demand growth in 2026. EIA, IEA, and OPEC have different views on the growth rates in 2025 and 2026. [128] - EIA predicts that the inventory of OECD commercial crude oil and other liquids will continue to increase until Q4 2026, and the global crude oil inventory has returned to the level since 2021. [133] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Iran conflict have affected the crude oil market, but most of the time, the impact on supply and transportation is not substantial, and the market returns to fundamental pricing after short-term disturbances. [137] - In 2025, the situation in Venezuela, the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the possibility of Israel attacking Iran again are the main geopolitical factors affecting the crude oil market. [137]