1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil stabilized and rebounded. Russia extended the gasoline export ban. The market is waiting for the US - Russia summit in Alaska. Trump is optimistic about the success of the talks, but the US does not rule out sanctions. Putin positively evaluated the efforts made by the US, and the economic envoy of the Kremlin expects it may promote the restart of Russia - US relations. Short - term oil prices face significant fluctuations. Short - term prices are expected to move in the range of 485 - 495, and long - term long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US July Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, far exceeding economists' expectations. Russia may extend the full ban on gasoline exports until September. Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, but achieving peace may require a second meeting including Ukrainian leaders. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On August 14, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $67.94 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.12 per barrel. The basis was 19.48 yuan/barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, rated as neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, while the expected decrease was 0.941 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.036 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 0.275 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory increased by 0.045 million barrels. As of August 14, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.767 million barrels, rated as bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, rated as bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, rated as bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump believes Putin will reach an agreement in the meeting, estimating a 25% risk of failure. The "Trump - Putin meeting" on Friday is seen as paving the way for a second meeting. The US temporarily waived some sanctions on Russia for the meeting, but also warned of possible sanctions. Russia showed a relatively positive attitude [5]. - Fed Chair candidate David Zervos believes the Fed is late in approving interest rate cuts and advocates for radical easing policies to prevent labor market slowdown and create 1 million jobs [5]. - Bank of America maintains a bearish forecast for Brent crude oil prices in the second half of 2025, expecting an average price of $63.50 per barrel and a possible drop below $60. It predicts an oil supply surplus of 0.89 million barrels per day from July 2025 to June 2026, which may lead to a global oil inventory increase of about 100 million barrels [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the Sino - US tariff exemption period is extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to be achieved; the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are reduced, and the risk of trade tariff issues rises. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $65.63, $62.65, 490.5 yuan, and $68.46 respectively, with changes of - $0.49 (- 0.74%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - 3.80 yuan (- 0.77%), and + $0.48 (+ 0.71%) compared to the previous day [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils changed by - $0.65 (- 0.96%), - $0.52 (- 0.82%), - $1.13 (- 1.64%), - $1.01 (- 1.56%), and - $1.16 (- 1.69%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 8 increased by 1.519 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.036 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 156,023, an increase of 2,692 [18]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of July 29, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 261,352, an increase of 33,959 [20].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong, Futures Practitioner Certificate No.: F03108405, Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No.: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Relevant Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2510 (Main Contract): Price on August 13, 2025, was 3503, down 3 (-0.09%) from the previous day [2] - BU2511: Price was 3460, down 6 (-0.17%) [2] - BU2512: Price remained unchanged at 3406 [2] - SC2509: Price was 489.5, down 5.7 (-1.15%) [2] - Brent First Line: Price was 65.91, down 1.1 (-1.61%) [2] - Main Contract Positions: 22.5 million lots, up 0.2 million lots (0.84%) [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 12.3 million lots, up 0.3 million lots (2.42%) [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 73,750 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU11 - 12: Spread was 54.00, down 6.00 (-10.00%) [2] - BU10 - 11: Spread was 43.00, up 3.00 (7.50%) [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 190.00, up 6.00 (3.26%) [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: Data unavailable [2] Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong Low - end Price: 3520, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Price: 3650, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Price: Data unavailable [2] - Shandong Gasoline: Price was 7732, down 6.00 (-0.08%) [2] - Shandong Diesel: Price was 6562, up 1.00 (0.02%) [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke: Price was 2960, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Middle Price: 7.1350, down 0.01 (-0.10%) [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: 4.36, up 52.61 (109.04%) [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 525.78, up 54.41 (11.54%) [2] - BU - SC Cracking Spread: -511.40, up 36.30 (6.63%) [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent: 1204.47, up 55.90 (4.87%) [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent: 859.07, up 62.09 (7.79%) [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - On August 13, the average domestic asphalt market price was 3820 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.10%) from the previous day [5] - In the North China market, demand is slowly recovering, and major refineries are limiting shipments, supporting price increases [5] - In the Shandong market, supply is abundant, and transactions are mostly at low - end prices [5] - In the Northeast market, demand is weak, and some traders are cutting prices to stimulate sales [5] - In the South market, demand is tepid, but major refineries mainly ship by sea, and inventories are at medium - low levels, so prices are stable [5] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton. Falling crude oil prices are negative for market sentiment, but asphalt prices are already relatively low, and traders' previous procurement costs are high [5] - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt remained stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton. Low refinery operating rates and inventory levels support prices, but rain has affected terminal demand [5] - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3530 - 3530 yuan/ton. Demand is weak, and many downstream users are pessimistic. New typhoons and high social inventories may keep prices weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - The short - term spot market is weak. Short - term precipitation affects demand release, and demand in the North will start slowly before September. The supply - demand pattern will be weak in August, and the de - stocking speed in the industrial chain will slow down [7] - Oil prices will fluctuate in the short term and are bearish in the medium term. Asphalt prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term, being more resilient than crude oil. The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be between 3450 and 3550 [7] Group 4: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as BU main contract closing prices, positions, East China and Shandong asphalt market prices, Shandong refined oil prices, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [9][10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week. The total planned production of domestic asphalt in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The current demand is lower than the historical average, with the overall demand recovery in the peak season falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory continuously increasing, factory inventory continuously decreasing, and port inventory continuously increasing. Crude oil prices are strengthening, providing short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [8][9][10]. - The factors affecting the market include the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support; however, there is insufficient demand for high - priced products, and the overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.4372%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises is 280,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.90%. The output of sample enterprises is 558,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 616,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. Refineries have recently reduced production, easing supply pressure, but there may be an increase in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 15.8681%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 449.48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 845.6671 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.25%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [9]. - **Basis**: On August 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 144 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.367 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.79%; the factory inventory is 679,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 250,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.27%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, the factory inventory is continuously decreasing, and the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3482 - 3530 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [24][25]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][36]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 [40][41]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [48][49]. - **Production Volume**: The report presents the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report presents the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the estimated maintenance loss volume trends from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report presents the social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) trends from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio trends from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: The report presents the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report presents the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The report presents the trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The report shows the trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year infrastructure investment completion rate from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume trends of excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report presents the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate trends from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report shows the construction rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100]. - **Downstream Construction Situation**: The report presents the construction rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to August 2025 [107][108].

Core Viewpoint - In July, China's naphtha production increased by 6.45% month-on-month to 16.8574 million tons, driven by higher operating rates at domestic refineries, but a decrease in production is expected in August to around 16.7 million tons due to potential narrowing of crude oil processing volume [1][4]. Group 1: Naphtha Production - In July, China's naphtha production reached 16.8574 million tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 6.45% and a year-on-year growth of 6.44% [1]. - From January to July, total naphtha production was 111.9607 million tons, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.39% [1]. - The increase in July's naphtha production was primarily due to higher operating rates at domestic refineries and the commencement of new production facilities [1][3]. Group 2: Refinery Operations - Domestic refineries experienced varying degrees of increased operating rates due to the recovery from previous maintenance, with Yanshan Petrochemical halting repairs in mid-July, leading to an average operating rate increase of 1.59 percentage points to 82.57% [3]. - Despite some refineries undergoing maintenance, others like Qirun Petrochemical and Haike Ruilin resumed operations, resulting in an average operating rate increase of 0.46 percentage points to 51.33% for Shandong independent refineries [3]. - The overall crude oil processing volume in July rose by 4.96% month-on-month to 63.3238 million tons, significantly boosting naphtha production [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In August, naphtha production is expected to decrease to around 16.7 million tons, as crude oil prices are anticipated to fluctuate with a downward trend due to potential demand decline and increased supply [4]. - The operating rates for major refineries are expected to remain stable between 80%-85%, while Shandong independent refineries are likely to maintain a low operating rate around 50% due to ongoing maintenance [4]. - Overall, the crude oil processing volume is projected to see a slight month-on-month decline in August, with limited reduction in naphtha production expected [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The unexpected decline in the US services PMI data led to a significant drop in the dollar, causing gold prices to surge, reaching a peak of $3390 before closing above $3380, showcasing a remarkable V-shaped recovery [1] - Analysts predict that if gold breaks through the $3400 level, it could continue to rise towards $3410 or even $3415, driven by the weakened dollar index [1] - However, there are warnings against blindly chasing the upward trend, with key resistance identified in the $3420-$3423 range, suggesting a potential shorting opportunity if prices exceed $3418-$3423 [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, lack of interest yield from gold, and increasing US Treasury issuance are expected to exert long-term pressure on gold prices [3] - The current household gold holdings represent 3% of net wealth, the highest in half a century, indicating a potential lack of future buyers for gold [3] - The easing of trade tensions and the lack of escalation in geopolitical conflicts, along with competition from Bitcoin for safe-haven demand, suggest that the gold market may be entering a prolonged downturn [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - The WTI crude oil price has fallen below $65, with supply-demand imbalances exacerbated by US shale oil production countering OPEC's efforts to stabilize prices [4] - The recommendation is to short oil in the $65.6-$66 range, targeting $64 or even $63, as bearish sentiment dominates the market [4] - Despite the downtrend, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, with a suggestion to buy near $63 for short-term gains, but caution is advised as the true bottom for oil prices has not yet been reached [4] Group 4: Summary of Market Trends - The gold market may see a short-term breakthrough above $3400, but caution is warranted above $3415, while the oil market should focus on shorting above $65.6 and consider small long positions near $63 [6] - The overarching trend indicates a long-term bearish outlook for gold and a search for a bottom in the oil market, emphasizing the need to avoid being misled by short-term fluctuations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side indicates that the total planned asphalt production in China in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate has increased, and refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure. [8] - The demand side shows that the current demand is below the historical average level, with different trends in the start - up rates of various types of asphalt and related products. [8] - In terms of cost, the processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term. [9] - It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2510 fluctuating between 3521 - 3567. [10] - The factors affecting the market include both positive and negative aspects. Positive factors are the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support, and negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward trend of demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. [12][13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The total planned asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, with a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization rate is 34.7555%, a 3.835 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Sample enterprise production has increased, and refineries' production increases supply pressure. [8] - **Demand**: The start - up rates of different types of asphalt and related products show mixed trends, with the overall demand below the historical average. [8] - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt is - 696.98 yuan/ton, a 4.00% decrease month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 760.1786 yuan/ton, a 10.25% decrease month - on - month. The cost support is expected to weaken. [9] - **Inventory**: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all decreasing. [10] - **Expected Trend**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with asphalt 2510 in the 3521 - 3567 range. [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, changes, and inventory of different asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on production, sales, and profit margins. [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions, showing the price differences between spot and futures. [20] - **Spread**: It includes the spread analysis of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), asphalt - crude oil price trends, crude oil cracking spreads, and the ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil. [23][26][29][33] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market. [37] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Analyzes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread between asphalt and coking. [39][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Marey crude oil, local refinery asphalt production, start - up rate, and maintenance loss volume. [45][47][50][55][57][60][62] - **Inventory Analysis**: Includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, factory inventory - to - stock ratio, and import and export inventory. [65][69][72][75] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Analyzes the trends of asphalt exports, imports, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt. [75][78] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: Considers factors such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand), asphalt start - up rate, and downstream start - up conditions. [81][84][87][91][96][98][100] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data. [105]

国信证券发布研报称，7月下旬，美欧达成贸易协议，特朗普将缩短俄乌达成和平协议的最后期限，且 美国可能施压二级制裁，并对俄油买家发出关税威胁，同时墨西哥下调产量预估，沙特或上调9月 OSP，叠加需求旺季支撑，国际原油价格加速冲高。此外，全球外部环境急剧变化，同时俄乌、美伊以 及美国"对等关税"政策均存在较大不确定性，但考虑到OPEC+较高的财政平衡油价成本，以及美国页 岩油较高的新井成本，预计2025年布伦特油价中枢在65-75美元/桶，2025年WTI油价中枢在60-70美元/ 桶。 国信证券主要观点如下： 7月油价回顾：2025年7月布伦特原油期货均价为69.4美元/桶，环比下跌0.4美元/桶，月末收于73.2美元/ 桶；WTI原油期货均价67.1美元/桶，环比下跌0.6美元/桶，月末收于70.0美元/桶。 7月上旬，美国关税政策暂缓，中东地缘局势反复，叠加夏季需求旺季支撑，国际油价震荡上涨；7月中 旬，美国宣布对巴西商品加征关税，欧佩克下调未来四年全球石油需求预测，国际油价大幅下跌；7月 下旬，美欧达成贸易协议，特朗普将缩短俄乌达成和平协议的最后期限，且美国可能施压二级制裁，并 对俄油买家发出关税威胁，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil retail prices have experienced their third freeze of the year as of July 29, 2023, due to minimal fluctuations in international oil prices and the current domestic pricing mechanism [1][2]. Price Adjustment Summary - In 2023, domestic refined oil retail prices have undergone 15 adjustment cycles, including 6 increases, 3 freezes, and 6 decreases [2]. - The average price of refined oil for the first ten working days prior to July 29 was less than 50 yuan per ton compared to the previous ten working days before July 15, leading to no price adjustments [1]. Market Analysis - The international crude oil market has shown a narrow range of fluctuations, with the domestic refined oil wholesale market also reflecting a similar trend, where gasoline prices are performing slightly better than diesel [3]. - Analysts predict that the domestic gasoline and diesel market will continue to exhibit weak consolidation trends in the near future [3]. - OPEC+ is expected to hold a meeting in early August to set production policies for September, which may influence market sentiment and pricing [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC+ is anticipated to maintain a significant increase in production, potentially completing its original plan of increasing by 2.2 million barrels per day ahead of schedule in September [3]. - On the demand side, the ongoing summer travel peak in the U.S. is expected to sustain fuel demand, although concerns regarding U.S. tariffs and global economic outlook may keep the market cautious [3]. Short-term Market Sentiment - The market is currently focused on U.S.-China negotiations, with positive expectations potentially boosting oil prices in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bullish. The supply pressure has been reduced recently due to refinery production cuts, but it may increase next week. The current demand is below the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3596 - 3634 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.539 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.9204%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.79%, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.4572%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 547.8 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 847.0529 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.28%. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On July 25, the spot price in Shandong was 3,780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.352 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%; the in - factory inventory was 723,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.99%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23.80%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - factory and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3596 - 3634 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including futures contract prices, inventory, production, and other indicators and their changes [14][15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [18][20]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42]. - **Supply Side**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Operating Rate**: It shows the historical weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: It shows the historical trend of estimated maintenance loss of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical trends of the total, social, and factory warehouse receipts of asphalt on the exchange from 2019 to 2025 [64][66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025 [74]. - It shows the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [77]. - **Demand Side**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [86][87]. - It shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the domestic excavator sales volume from 2019 to 2025 [90][92]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: It shows the historical operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: It shows the historical operating rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: It shows the historical operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of asphalt is high, with refineries increasing production recently. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, and the current demand is below the historical average. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support has strengthened in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3583 - 3621 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is the high supply pressure and the weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: In July 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 253900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 34.2761%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 57200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. The refineries have increased production recently, raising the supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, unchanged month - on - month and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.00 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 875.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has widened. The rising crude oil prices are expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position has a net long position, and the long position has increased, showing a bullish situation [9]. - **Basis**: On July 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3785 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 183 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish situation [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 131900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 76100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 21000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.22%. The social inventory is continuously increasing, while the in - plant and port inventories are decreasing, showing a bullish situation [10]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's asphalt market, including the prices, changes, and trading volumes of different contracts, as well as indicators such as inventory, production, and开工率 [16][17]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19][20]. - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 4. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 5. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][38][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Production**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical price trend of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical local refinery asphalt production from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It presents the historical weekly asphalt开工率 from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [64][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventories**: It presents the historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the price difference trend of imported Korean asphalt [74][75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical petroleum coke production from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, and downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales) [86][87][90]. - **Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98]. - **Downstream开工情况**: It presents the historical开工率 of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [104][105].