研究品种:燃料油 成文日期：20251208 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 料油期货周报 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要受国际原油波动及地缘政治情绪主导,自身基本面矛 盾不突出。市场呈现"上有压力,下有支撑"的特点。上方压力来 自充裕的现货供应与趋弱的国际原油市场情绪；下方支撑则源于相 对稳定的船燃需求及潜在的供应端扰动风险。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2455 元/吨，较前一交易周 结算价下跌 46元/吨, 跌幅为 1.84%。本周最高价为 2504 元/吨, 最低价为 2394 元/吨，成交量为 1884521 手，持仓量为 185625 手，减少 16267 手。 图 1：FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源：国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货各合约价差进一步收窄趋于一致。可能都原 ...

地缘依旧存在高度不确定性，油价或存反弹风险 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月11日，SC原油主力合约价格收于439.7元/ 桶，较前一日443.7元/桶小幅回落0.9%，日内走势从453.7元高点下探。 WTI原油价格维持在58.96美元/桶，Brent原油价格维持在62.52美元/桶， 均无变化，显示短期稳定。价差方面，SC-Brent价差从0.29美元/桶降 至-0.22美元/桶，走弱175.86%；SC-WTI价差从3.85美元/桶降至3.34美元/ 桶，走弱13.25%；Brent-WTI价差稳定在3.56美元/桶；SC连续-连3价差 从-2.0元/桶降至-3.3元/桶，走弱65.0%，反映近月合约承压。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ： 俄罗斯向印度和中国交付的原油连续第三周下降，原因是美国的新制裁似 乎给海运贸易流动带来了压力。根据标普全球海上大宗商品的数据，本周 向包括印度、中国和土耳其在内的俄罗斯前三大买家交付1760万桶俄罗斯 原油，低于之前的1,920万桶和五周平均水平的2150万桶；哈萨克斯坦石油 产量计划如期，但里海管道袭击导致损失约4 ...

2026 年油价走势怎么看？20251211 摘要 IEA 和 EIA 预测 2026 年一季度原油过剩量分别接近 500 万桶/天和 300 万桶/天，短期内供应过剩构成价格下行压力，但为中长期多头布局提供 机会。 OPEC 减产回补任务接近尾声，剩余产能有限，且主要成员国财政盈亏 平衡油价高于当前市场价格，维持高油价意愿强烈，未来通过调整产量 影响供需平衡的空间受限。 美国页岩油产业面临成本上升（新井完全成本升至 60-70 美元/桶）和 资本开支受限的双重挑战，制约新井开发力度，页岩油产量增长乏力， 对全球原油供应增速形成制约。 非 OPEC 国家原油供应增速放缓，2026 年增速预计降至 1.84%，表明 非 OPEC 地区对全球市场供应压力边际减弱，需关注俄罗斯和委内瑞拉 等国的政策及地缘政治因素。 俄乌战争延续及美国与委内瑞拉关系紧张等地缘政治风险，对供应预期 形成支撑，预计 2026 年全球供应增长边际放缓趋势明确。 Q&A 如何看待 2026 年全球原油市场的供需情况及价格走势？ 根据主流机构的预测，2026 年全球原油市场供应端的增长将受到限制，而需 求端则保持韧性。预计在 2026 年一季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is facing significant resistance levels, and the outlook appears bearish unless buyers can defend key support zones [1][6]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil is currently under resistance from the 200-day moving average at approximately $60.96, Friday's high at $60.50, and the 50-day moving average at $59.67, creating a strong ceiling for prices [1]. - The short-term retracement zone is identified between $59.23 and $58.44, which is seen as the next support area [1]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing Ukraine peace talks are contributing to supply risk, as any potential ceasefire could lead to increased Russian oil exports, which traders are cautious about [2]. - Analysts at PVM suggest that even speculation about renewed Russian exports is enough to dampen market sentiment [2]. Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a quarter-point rate cut, with market expectations at around 84%, which typically would support crude prices; however, uncertainty regarding supply may counteract this effect [3]. - The market is not fully confident in a smooth policy path from the Fed, indicating that while lower rates may provide some support, they are unlikely to outweigh supply-side uncertainties [3]. Supply Dynamics - Trump's influence on Ukraine could potentially swing global oil supply by over 2 million barrels per day, creating a wide range of outcomes that the market is hesitant to price in aggressively [4]. - Additional factors such as potential new G7/EU restrictions on Russian exports, U.S. pressure on Venezuela, and increased Iranian oil imports by Chinese refiners contribute to a complex supply landscape [5]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for crude oil remains bearish, with the market boxed under major moving-average resistance and momentum declining [6]. - The key area to monitor for potential dip-buyers is the $59.23–$58.44 retracement zone, which must hold for a bullish reversal to occur [6].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年12月7日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：关注地缘对油运扰动， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 短期观望 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：关注地缘对油运扰动 ...

2025年12月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环 比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨， 环比减少9.60%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为10.5658%，环比减少0.02个百分点， 低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为29%，环比减少5.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；防水 卷材开工率为33.8%，环比减少0.20个百分点，低于历史平均水平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平 均水平。 ...

卓创资讯分析师 孟鹏 【导语】 11月下旬，国际原油价格整体呈现出震荡下行走势，市场观望情绪浓厚，业者进购意愿低 迷。叠加国内柴油需求整体表现欠佳，抵消了来自供应端趋紧的影响，因此贸易单位下旬多消化库存为 主，大单进购操作减少，柴油库容率月末有所降低。 据卓创资讯对沿海以及内江周边30家社会贸易单位调研发现，截至2025年11月27日，国内成品油贸易单 位柴油库存占库容的比重在29.93%，较中旬降低0.16个百分点，同比增加0.04个百分点。 缺乏利好提振，贸易单位柴油库容率降低 本月下旬，原油价格整体呈现出震荡下行趋势，核心影响因素主要是欧洲和平谈判进展向好，地缘溢价 继续回吐，而12月份沙特将继续增产也利空于原油价格走势。但是由于美国原油库存去库、美联储大概 率降息以及欧洲局势谈判短期难以完成等情况影响，原油价格底部仍存支撑，因此价格震荡为主，均值 环比下跌。受此影响，国内成品油零售限价于11月24日24时经历下调后，新周期的原油变化率仍处于负 值范围内，国内市场观望情绪持续浓厚，业者对后市缺乏信心，进购意愿低迷。此外，虽然下旬国内部 分地区柴油现货资源依旧偏紧，但是随着气温降低以及物流运输活跃度下降， ...

需求不及预期，10月内贸船燃市场价格稳步回落 10月船用油市场价格整体呈高位回落走势。截止到10月29日，我国内贸船用180CST供船均价为5042元/ 吨，较上月均价上涨34元/吨或0.68%；柴油供船均价为6567元/吨，较上月均价下跌181元/吨或2.68%。 10月因原料端呈现回落，厂家生产成本收窄，带动批发出库价格下跌。此外，国庆假期期间市场库存消 化缓慢，节后下游补货积极性偏弱，对厂家批发出库价格形成利空。因此整体来看，国内主要代表市场 批发出库价格稳步下跌，月末收于4670-4850元/吨，环比回落130-150元/吨。 需求平平，内贸船用油柴油价格连续下跌 【导语】10月船用油原料供应量增加，价格稳步回落，带动国内重油供船价格下跌。后市来看，11月船 运市场需求回归平稳，预计内贸船用油市场均价或继续回落。 本月受到原油以及原料供应因素影响，月内调油混兑原料基本呈现下跌走势。与9月末相比较，各厂家 原料价格累计下跌空间在200-280元/吨不等。成本端波动对出库价格形成直接利空，批发出库价格下跌 为主，仅10月下旬因国际原油宽幅反弹，批发出库价格短暂回涨。截至10月29日，全国180CST批发出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in crude oil prices is primarily driven by the U.S. government's sanctions against major Russian oil companies, which has led to a potential reduction in Russian oil supply, particularly affecting imports from China and India [2][6][8]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On October 23, crude oil futures in Europe and the U.S. rose by 6%, reaching a two-week high, with Brent crude trading between $66.0 and $66.4 per barrel and WTI exceeding $62 per barrel [3][6]. - The sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are expected to freeze their assets in the U.S., limiting their trading activities and aiming to restrict Russia's ability to fund its military operations [6][8]. Group 2: Impact on Importing Countries - China and India, which previously imported significant amounts of Russian oil, are reportedly pausing their purchases, with major companies like PetroChina and Sinopec halting imports [7][8]. - The potential for these countries to face challenges in transactions with sanctioned Russian companies could lead to a significant shift in their oil procurement strategies [8]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict that the recent rise in oil prices may be temporary, with expectations that Brent crude could fall back to around $60 per barrel due to increased production from other sources and potential supply surplus [8]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that Russia's oil exports are heavily reliant on China and India, which together account for nearly 70% of its export destinations [7]. Group 4: Natural Gas Market - Concerns regarding Russian natural gas supply remain limited, with European gas prices showing only a slight increase, reflecting reduced dependency on Russian gas since the onset of the Ukraine conflict [9]. - The EU aims to completely eliminate reliance on Russian natural gas by 2027, with ongoing efforts to enhance gas storage capabilities and increase supply from the U.S. and the Middle East [9].

Group 1 - The China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (931233) increased by 0.19%, with notable gains in China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 3.48%, First Tractor Company (00038) up 2.85%, and Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) up 2.21% [1] - The energy sector holds significant weight in the China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, with oil and gas equipment and services, along with oil and gas producers, accounting for over 10% combined, and the coal industry exceeding 4% [1] - The National Securities Free Cash Flow Index (980092) decreased by 0.03%, with stocks showing mixed performance; Dayang Electric (002249) led with an 8.57% increase, followed by Hengdian East Magnetic (002056) up 5.46% and Taiji Industry (600667) up 5.42% [1] Group 2 - International crude oil prices surged significantly, with WTI crude oil for December delivery rising by $3.29 per barrel, or 5.62%, to $61.79 per barrel, and Brent crude oil for December delivery increasing by $3.40 per barrel, or 5.43%, to $65.99 per barrel [2] - Geopolitical risks are expected to have a diminishing marginal impact in the medium to long term, with market dynamics returning to fundamentals; however, international production pressure remains a key factor influencing oil price trends [2] - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies and geopolitical rumors regarding Venezuela have driven oil prices higher, with Brent crude returning to $65, reflecting a cumulative increase of over $5 [2]