《商业模式，到底藏着什么魔法？》 ——从平台崛起到 AI 浪潮，为什么有些人靠"结构设计"就能从容赚钱？ 这也是为什么中国在 2025 年依然能不断冒出新玩家： 所有炫目的理论，本质都在回答三件事： 顺序不能反。想清前两条，第三条会像溪水一样自然往下走。 为什么顶级模式一定要"造增量"？ 真正厉害的商业模式，不是从别人碗里抢饭，而是让桌上的饭变多。就像榨油工艺升级，100 斤花生能从 25 斤榨到 40 斤。多出的 15 斤怎么用？ 这就是商业世界的黄金法则："总价值创造" = 全局性增量。不用抢，大家都赢。 超大规模市场带来超多场景，只要创造价值增量，就能跑出新模式、新企业、新奇迹。 你有没有想过：为什么滴滴没车、Airbnb 没房、淘宝没货，却都成了巨头？ 这到底是魔法，还是某种被忽视的力量？答案只有一个——商业模式。 它不是赚钱技巧，而是让价值在不同参与者之间顺畅流动的"结构智慧"。 商业模式的底层逻辑 分 5 斤给消费者（价值感马上拉满）； 分 5 斤给伙伴（一起做大市场）； 自己留 5 斤（利润成倍增长）。 想判断一个商业模式是否靠谱，只需问这两句："我为谁创造了什么价值？""凭什么非我不可？" 答 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai recently held an extraordinary shareholders' meeting, approving the election of directors, mid-term profit distribution, and share buyback proposals, with a focus on "sustaining high-quality development and creating sustainable value" [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The new chairman, Chen Hua, made his first appearance and engaged with investors on various concerns [1] - General Manager Wang Li and the management team provided detailed explanations on multiple investor queries [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - The research highlights Moutai's strong brand barrier and substantial channel profits, which create a solid competitive moat [1] - Moutai's business model is noted for its long-term stable profitability, high cash flow quality, and return on equity (ROE), generating sustainable long-term returns [1] - According to Moutai's cash dividend plan for 2024-2026, the annual cash dividend will not be less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with an implied dividend yield of 3.6% in 2025, indicating medium to long-term investment value [1] - The company is expected to achieve stable growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with strong certainty in performance [1] - The rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Core Insights - The hot pot industry in China is experiencing structural differentiation, with a notable rise in self-service hot pot formats [4][11] - The number of small hot pot enterprises in China has reached approximately 23,000, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.8% from 2019 to 2023 [5] - Major brands like Haidilao and Yang Guofu are entering the self-service hot pot market, indicating a trend towards this format [7][8] Industry Overview - As of July 2024, the number of small hot pot outlets in China is expected to exceed 50,000, accounting for about 10% of the total hot pot outlets [9] - 81.6% of small hot pot brands have five or fewer outlets, highlighting a highly fragmented market with low chain rates [10][11] - Emerging regional brands are capitalizing on opportunities in this nascent market, with numerous players already present [12][13] Company Case Study: Long Ge Self-Service Hot Pot - Long Ge has rapidly expanded, surpassing 100 outlets and planning to reach 300 by 2025 [15][17] - The brand's growth is attributed to a well-developed single-store model and a replicable business strategy [20] - The single-store profitability model includes key elements such as customer targeting, product-service mix, location strategy, and operational tactics [22][23] Single-Store Model Development - Long Ge's initial store faced significant losses, prompting a shift to a more successful location model [25][26] - Customer feedback led to the introduction of single-portion dishes, although this increased labor costs [28] - The focus on customer satisfaction is critical, with Long Ge achieving a monthly repurchase rate exceeding 30% [39] Operational Efficiency - Long Ge emphasizes standardization in operations, reducing labor needs and simplifying employee tasks [40][41] - The self-service model allows for high standardization, which is essential for scalability in the hot pot sector [44] Business Model Design - The business model is designed to align the interests of all stakeholders, including suppliers, employees, and investors [49][50] - Long Ge's investment structure allows for significant employee participation in profit-sharing, enhancing motivation and reducing turnover [54][56] - The model has proven effective, with over 80 new outlets opened since 2019, indicating strong market acceptance [59]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of an industry lifecycle framework in conducting industry research, highlighting the need for a structured approach to understand market dynamics and investment opportunities [3][6]. Industry Lifecycle Framework - The industry lifecycle can be divided into four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, influenced by customer adoption patterns [6][7]. - The framework aligns with Everett Rogers' innovation diffusion theory, categorizing users into five types based on their adoption speed [6]. - The introduction phase is characterized by few users and uncertain market potential, while the growth phase sees rapid user adoption and increasing demand [6][7]. - In the maturity phase, growth slows as new customer acquisition diminishes, leading to increased competition and declining margins [7]. - The decline phase is marked by stagnant user growth and the emergence of substitutes, where only companies with significant scale or cost advantages can remain competitive [7][8]. Research Focus by Lifecycle Stage - In the introduction phase, the primary concern is the feasibility of the business model, focusing on real demand and sustainable profitability [10]. - For the growth phase, attention shifts to market size and potential, estimating future growth over the next 3-5 years [11]. - In the maturity phase, the focus is on the industry's competitive advantages and the potential for new growth avenues, assessing supply constraints and competitive dynamics [11][12]. - In the decline phase, research should pivot to substitute products, as the industry may no longer be a viable investment [11]. Market Size and Scale - Market size is crucial for determining the potential for large companies to emerge, with a focus on Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) [16][17]. - Different stages of the lifecycle require different market size metrics, with TAM being critical in the introduction phase and SAM and SOM becoming more relevant in growth and maturity phases [17]. Competitive Landscape and Profitability - The competitive landscape significantly influences profitability, with a focus on market share and industry concentration [23][24]. - Understanding horizontal competition (within the same industry) and vertical relationships (across the supply chain) is essential for assessing overall industry health and profitability [23][24].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around investment strategies and methodologies shared by prominent investors like Duan Yongping, emphasizing the importance of understanding company culture, business models, and differentiation in stock selection [5][7][39]. - The article highlights the significance of company culture, stating that a strong culture can guide a company back on track, and changes in culture should prompt investors to reassess their investments [10][18][20][24]. - It discusses the importance of a solid business model, using examples like Buffett's investment in Coca-Cola and Duan's success with NetEase, showcasing the need for deep understanding of the business [25][28][29][31]. Group 2 - Differentiation is emphasized as a critical factor in avoiding price wars and maintaining customer loyalty, with Duan mentioning that products lacking differentiation face significant challenges [32][34][37]. - The article advises investors to limit the number of stocks they invest in, suggesting that understanding a few companies deeply is more beneficial than spreading investments too thin [39][41][44]. - It introduces the concept of "full position" investing, where investors should fully commit to stocks they understand, rather than holding cash that may lose value over time due to inflation [46][48][51]. Group 3 - The article warns against short-term trading, explaining that quantitative trading strategies can make it increasingly difficult for retail investors to profit from market fluctuations [54][56][62]. - It contrasts long-term investing with quantitative trading, suggesting that successful investing is akin to nurturing a growing tree, while quantitative strategies focus on short-term price discrepancies [66][70]. - The article clarifies a common misconception about value investing, stating that while long-term holding is essential, investors should also be prepared to sell if better opportunities arise [72][76].

（原标题：单日蒸发近千亿！工业富联急跌背后，机构乐观难敌商业模式隐忧） 21世纪经济报道记者 彭新 11月24日，A股AI算力龙头工业富联（601138.SH）股价午后跳水，一度触及跌停，最终收跌7.80%，报55.94元/股，创下两个月以来的新低。作为 市值一度突破1.3万亿元的AI算力核心标的，工业富联单日蒸发市值近千亿元，近三个交易日累计跌幅已超14%。 同日，有投资者在互动平台向工业富联提问：有消息传，公司已经下调了第四季度业绩目标，同时也有观点认为，大客户在L10/L11商业模式上会 有调整，可能对公司在业务布局和盈利能力产生不利影响。请问属实吗，公司如何看待？ 工业富联回应称，当前，公司第四季度整体经营，包括GB200、GB300等相关产品出货均按既定计划推进，客户需求持续畅旺，生产及出货一切 正常。公司未向市场下调第四季度利润目标，不存在应披露未披露的信息。同时，与客户合作开发的下一代产品，也正在按前期的计划如期顺利 推进当中。 同日，工业富联母公司鸿海精密（2317.TW）亦同步发布相关澄清公告，强调生产及出货一切正常。11月25日，截至当日收盘，工业富联上涨 1.2%，报56.61元/股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial performance and strategic direction of MINISO, emphasizing the importance of a strong business model for long-term returns and the challenges faced in maintaining competitive pricing and profitability in the retail sector [1][12]. Financial Performance - MINISO reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.797 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28.2%, achieving a record high for a single quarter. Gross profit rose by 28% to 2.58 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 44.7%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31% to 441 million RMB, while adjusted net profit increased by 12% to 767 million RMB, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% [1]. - For Q1 2025, MINISO's revenue was 4.427 billion RMB, up 18.9%, but operating profit fell by 4.51% to 710 million RMB, and net profit dropped by 28.92% to 417 million RMB. Adjusted net profit was 587 million RMB, down 4.81%, with a net profit margin of 13.3% [3]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 4.97 billion RMB, a 23.1% increase, with a gross margin of 44.3%. Operating profit grew by 11.3% to 836 million RMB, while net profit was 489.5 million RMB, down from 591.4 million RMB in the previous year [3]. Business Segments - MINISO brand revenue was 5.22 billion RMB, reflecting a 23% increase, while TOP TOY brand revenue surged by 111.4% to 570 million RMB. The total number of stores globally reached 8,138, with 7,831 MINISO stores and 307 TOP TOY stores [1]. - The same-store GMV showed single-digit growth across the group, with MINISO in China experiencing high single-digit growth, indicating a stable base in the domestic market [1]. Business Model Analysis - The article critiques MINISO's business model, questioning whether it aligns more with unique product offerings or cost efficiency. The current strategy appears to lean towards the former, aiming for distinctive product strength rather than merely competing on price [5][12]. - The founder's past assertion of a "quality at low price" model is challenged, as the current gross margin exceeds 50%, suggesting that the pricing strategy may not be as competitive as claimed [6][8]. - The company is seen as focusing on brand and IP management rather than traditional retail efficiency, which may limit its ability to compete on price against discount retailers [12][9]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive pressures faced by MINISO, particularly from established players in the market. The potential for competitors to offer lower prices poses a significant risk to MINISO's market position [12][15]. - The discussion includes comparisons with other brands, such as Bubble Mart, which operates on a unique product model with higher gross margins, suggesting that MINISO's strategy may not be sustainable in the long term [14][15].

Group 1 - Many founders believe they understand financing after reading a few books or attending some courses, but this superficial knowledge can lead to significant pitfalls in the capital game [6][9] - The importance of hiring a financing advisor is emphasized, as they can help navigate the complexities of fundraising and avoid common mistakes [5][14] - Founders often fail to present the financial data and compliance issues that investors care about during pitches, focusing instead on product features and team strengths [7][10] Group 2 - Due diligence is not just about preparing documents; it involves identifying potential issues that could derail financing, such as unclear equity structures or hidden liabilities [9][10] - Advisors can conduct mock due diligence to uncover potential risks and help resolve them before presenting to investors [10][12] - Many founders overlook critical terms in term sheets, which can lead to unfavorable conditions that affect their control and financial outcomes [12][13] Group 3 - A good financing advisor can help founders secure better valuations and more favorable terms by leveraging their industry knowledge and investor connections [15][16] - Advisors can save time for founders by managing the fundraising process, allowing them to focus on business operations [17][18] - Advisors can help avoid hidden pitfalls that may only become apparent after the deal is closed, ensuring that terms are favorable and sustainable [18][19] Group 4 - The right financing advisor should be seen as a long-term partner who understands the industry and can provide ongoing support throughout the fundraising process [20][21] - Key qualities of a good advisor include having extensive capital market resources, understanding the specific industry, and being willing to support the company through multiple funding rounds [21][22][23] - Engaging an advisor early in the process can help set a solid foundation for future fundraising efforts and avoid initial missteps [26][27] Group 5 - Advisors can assist in structuring equity and clarifying business models at the seed or angel round stage, which is crucial for attracting initial investment [27][28] - During A and B rounds, advisors can help overcome growth challenges and connect with strategic investors who can provide both capital and industry resources [29][30] - In the C round or Pre-IPO phase, advisors play a critical role in ensuring compliance and preparing for the listing process, which is essential for successful market entry [31][32]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the investment strategies and philosophies of Duan Yongping, particularly his recent stock holdings and insights shared during an interview [1][3][4]. Group 1: Investment Portfolio - Duan Yongping's investment portfolio, H&H International Investment, reported a total market value of approximately $14.679 billion as of the end of Q3, reflecting a growth of about 28% from the previous quarter [1]. - The top ten holdings in the portfolio account for a high concentration of 99.51%, with Apple Inc. being the largest holding at approximately $8.87 billion, representing 60.42% of the total portfolio [2]. - Significant changes in holdings include a 53.53% increase in Berkshire Hathaway, while there were notable reductions in Alibaba (down 25.86%) and Nvidia (down 38.04%) [2]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The principle of "buying stocks is buying companies" is emphasized, highlighting the importance of understanding the business before investing [4][12]. - Duan Yongping acknowledges the difficulty in fully understanding companies like General Electric and Google, suggesting that investors should refrain from investing in businesses they do not comprehend [4][12]. - He stresses the importance of corporate culture and business models, stating that a strong culture can guide a company even through mistakes [14][16]. Group 3: Market Insights - Duan Yongping expresses admiration for Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang, noting his consistent vision over the years and the company's strong ecosystem [22]. - The discussion includes concerns about the future of electric vehicles, indicating that many companies in this sector may struggle due to a lack of differentiation [29]. - The potential impact of AI on various industries is acknowledged, with a belief that while AI will bring significant changes, it will not replace the need for sound investment decisions [33].

Core Insights - The article discusses the latest 13F holdings of H&H International Investment, revealing a total market value of approximately $14.68 billion, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, with a high concentration in the top ten holdings [1][2]. Holdings Summary - The largest holding is Apple (AAPL) with a market value of approximately $8.87 billion, accounting for 60.42% of the portfolio, showing a slight decrease of 0.82% [2]. - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is the second-largest holding at approximately $2.61 billion, with a significant increase of 53.53% [2]. - Other notable holdings include Pinduoduo (PDD) at approximately $1.13 billion, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at approximately $640 million, and Alibaba (BABA) at approximately $496 million, with Alibaba seeing a notable decrease of 25.86% [2]. - New additions to the portfolio include ASML, while there were reductions in positions for Alibaba and Nvidia, with Nvidia seeing a decrease of 38.04% [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes understanding the business before investing, stating that "buying stocks is buying companies," which requires a deep understanding of the company's business model and culture [3][4][11]. - The importance of a "not-to-do list" is highlighted, suggesting that avoiding certain investments can be as crucial as making the right ones [12][15]. - The article discusses the significance of company culture and strategic focus, citing examples like Apple and its commitment to product quality and user experience [11][18]. Market Trends and Observations - The discussion includes insights on the semiconductor industry, particularly Nvidia's strong position and the challenges faced by electric vehicle companies due to lack of differentiation [13][18]. - The potential impact of AI on various industries is acknowledged, with a note that while AI will bring significant changes, it will not replace the need for sound investment decisions [18]. Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to focus on understanding the companies they invest in and to avoid following trends without comprehension, as this can lead to poor investment outcomes [15][18]. - The article suggests that investing in index funds, such as the S&P 500, can be a safer strategy for those who may not have the time or expertise to analyze individual stocks [15].