2025年1—11月份，全国固定资产投资(不含农户)444035亿元，同比下降2.6%(按可比口径计算，详见附 注7)。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降5.3%。从环比看，11月份固定资产投资(不含农户)下降 1.03%。 分产业看，第一产业投资8770亿元，同比增长2.7%；第二产业投资162243亿元，增长3.9%；第三产业 投资273022亿元，下降6.3%。 第二产业中，工业投资同比增长4.0%。其中，采矿业投资增长4.0%，制造业投资增长1.9%，电力、热 力、燃气及水生产和供应业投资增长10.7%。 第三产业中，基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比下降1.1%。其中，管道运输 业投资增长16.8%，水上运输业投资增长8.9%，铁路运输业投资增长2.7%。 分地区看，东部地区投资同比下降6.6%，中部地区投资下降1.7%，西部地区投资下降0.2%，东北地区 投资下降14.0%。 分登记注册类型看，内资企业固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，港澳台企业固定资产投资下降2.2%，外商 企业固定资产投资下降14.1%。 2025年1—11月份固定资产投资(不含农户)主要数据 | | 指 标 同 ...

固定资产投资方面，1—11月，全市固定资产投资同比下降4.2%，降幅较1—9月收窄1.0个百分 点。分领域看，基础设施投资同比增长4.3%，制造业投资增长11.9%。高技术产业投资增长9.3%，其 中，航空航天器及设备制造业、计算机及办公设备制造业、医疗仪器设备及仪器仪表制造业投资分别增 长45.9%、21.5%、23.7%。 居民消费价格方面，11月份，全市居民消费价格同比上涨0.4%，涨幅较上月提高0.3个百分点。分 类别看，食品烟酒价格同比下降0.8%，衣着价格上涨2.1%，居住价格下降0.6%，生活用品及服务价格 上涨1.6%，交通通信价格下降2.5%，教育文化娱乐价格上涨2.2%，医疗保健价格上涨2.5%，其他用 品及服务价格上涨15.9%。1—11月，全市居民消费价格同比下降0.3%。 工业方面，1—11月，全市规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%。分经济类型看，国有控股企业增加 值同比增长7.8%，股份制企业增长9.3%，私营企业增长10.7%。分行业看，仪器仪表制造业、通用设 备制造业、专用设备制造业增加值同比分别增长13.5%、10.3%、10.1%。分产品看，3D打印设备、工 业机器人、新能 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘铁矿收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、北京市进一步优化调整住房限购政策：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件，购买五环内 商品住房的社保或个税缴纳年限由"3 年"调减为"2 年"，五环外由"2 年"调减 为"1 年"；多子女家庭五环内可多购买 1 套房；商贷利率不再区分首套房和二套 房，二套房公积金贷款最低首付比例下调至 25%。 2、中钢协数据显示，12 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 184.5 万吨，环比下降 1.3%； | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 钢材库存量 1601 万吨，环比上一旬增长 8.6%，比上月同旬增长 2.6%。 3、据媒体消息，美国政府 23 日宣布，将在 2027 年对中国芯片加征关税，结束了 | | | | | 上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国 ...

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025年财政政策基调是"更加积极的财政政策"，因此狭广义财政赤字均大幅提升，狭义赤字规模增加39%；广义赤字规模增加27%。这一则带动广义赤字率 显著提高；二则政府债净供给创近年新高；三则对2025年经济活动形成有力支持。总量扩大之外，2025年发债节奏显著前倾，带动上半年政府债净供给同比 128%，下半年同比转增为降；受此影响，上半年广义支出累计同比8.9%，1-11月累计同比回落至4.5%。广义财政支出趋势于2024年呈"U"型变化，2025年呈"前高 后低"走势，与这两年的经济走势、权益资产走势基本同步。 第二， 2025年财政领域的亮点之一是财政收入结构有所改善，年初预算草案中非税收入的目标增速为-14.2%，反映了财政降低对非税收入依赖度的决心。1-11月 非税收入累计同比-3.7%，为近年来相对低点，非税收入占比也较去年有所回落；其中1-9月罚没收入累计同比-7%，较去年下行22个百分点。而税收收入则在下半 年表现较好，主要源于"两新"、金属等活跃行业的带动及税收政策的调整。 第三， 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The province experienced a 7.5% year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment from January to November, with project investment decreasing by 3.7% when excluding real estate development, while private investment in projects saw a slight increase of 0.2% [1] Investment Trends - Investment in basic living-related sectors such as food, clothing, housing, transportation, and entertainment showed strong growth, with agricultural and food processing industries seeing investments rise by 17.9% and 44.5% respectively [1] - The textile and apparel industry experienced a significant investment increase of 39.6%, while furniture and automotive manufacturing investments grew by 5.4% and 30.1% respectively [1] - The accommodation, catering, and entertainment sectors also reported substantial investment growth, with increases of 19.9%, 43.9%, and 41.5% respectively [1] High-Tech and Green Energy Investments - Investment in high-tech service industries grew by 18.1%, surpassing the overall investment growth rate by 25.6 percentage points, and its share of total investment increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In the green energy sector, investments in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries rose by 30.6%, indicating sustained high growth in green energy investments [1]

证券日报网讯12月24日，中船防务（600685）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，近年来，公司固定资 产投资主要聚焦于生产设施设备的填平补齐及升级改造，以提升生产效率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Malaysia's recent narrowing trade surplus raises market concerns, potentially impacting economic growth in Q4 2025 and dragging down the current account and overall GDP performance [1] Group 1: Trade and Economic Indicators - CIMB economists warn that the trend of a narrowing trade surplus may suppress economic growth in Q4 2025 [1] - In November 2025, Malaysia's capital goods imports surged by 56.8% year-on-year, indicating strong domestic fixed asset investment [1] - Despite external trade pressures, investment activities driven by domestic demand are providing significant economic support [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The technology sector is in an upward cycle, with electrical and electronic product exports maintaining double-digit growth, which may help offset the downward risks from commodity price fluctuations [1] - CIMB maintains its GDP growth forecast for Malaysia at 4.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Group 3: Trade Resilience - Despite the short-term challenges posed by a narrowing trade surplus, CIMB believes that Malaysia's overall trade fundamentals remain resilient [1] - The increasing proportion of high-value-added products in the export structure and active manufacturing investment are seen as key drivers supporting mid-term growth [1]

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation of Jiangsu Province is stable and progressing in 2023, with industrial value-added growth of 6.6% year-on-year from January to November [1] - In November, the industrial value-added increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in equipment manufacturing (7.5%), high-tech manufacturing (10.4%), and digital core product manufacturing (10.2%) [1] Industrial Performance - The manufacturing sectors such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment saw a growth of 13.5%, while railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment grew by 13.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 9.1% year-on-year from January to November, with infrastructure investment down by 2.9% [1] - Manufacturing investment declined by 4.4%, accounting for 46.2% of total investment, which is an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Service Sector - The revenue of the service industry increased by 7.5% year-on-year from January to October, with notable growth in resident services (15.5%), repair and other services (13.4%), and scientific research and technical services (10.1%) [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 42,586.8 billion yuan, growing by 3.8% year-on-year from January to November [2] - In November, retail sales of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, and audio-visual equipment grew by 26.2%, 13.1%, and 12.0% respectively [2] - The wholesale and retail sectors saw sales growth of 5.1% and 7.1% year-on-year, while accommodation and catering sectors grew by 2.5% and 5.4% respectively [2] Financial Sector - By the end of November, the balance of RMB deposits in financial institutions reached 27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [2] - The balance of RMB loans was 28.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [2] Price Trends - In November, the consumer price index increased by 0.6% year-on-year, while the cumulative index from January to November showed a decrease of 0.3% [3] - The producer price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.4% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative decline of 2.7% from January to November [3]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the significant investment achievements in Hainan Autonomous Prefecture during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total fixed asset investment of 1,027 billion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - Clean energy investment reached 749 billion yuan, showing a growth of 12% and 91% compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The clean energy sector is emphasized as a key support area, with major projects like the Qingyu Direct Current and Yangqu Hydropower Station being prioritized to dominate the fixed asset investment landscape [1] Group 2 - A total of 598 projects have been implemented with a total investment of 188.58 billion yuan, including 100.93 billion yuan from central and provincial funds, which is a 25% increase from the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Over 50% of the projects are in infrastructure, focusing on upgrades in water conservancy, transportation, energy, and public service facilities [1] - The implementation of 337 major provincial and state-level projects has an opening rate exceeding 96%, contributing over 85% to fixed asset investment with a total investment of 855 billion yuan [2]