Group 1: Historical Evolution of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved through three major phases since 1870: the Gold Standard, the Bretton Woods System, and the Jamaica System[1] - The Gold Standard operated on a government commitment to maintain currency value through gold reserves, while the Bretton Woods System was a quasi-gold standard based on the unique economic position of the United States[2] - The Jamaica System represents a loose and flexible choice under economic diversification, affirming the current state of a multi-currency system[3] Group 2: Monetary Discipline and Current Challenges - The transition from the Gold Standard to the Bretton Woods System and then to the Jamaica System reflects a gradual loosening of monetary discipline, allowing for more flexible monetary policies[4] - In the 21st century, major economies like Japan, the U.S., and the Eurozone have implemented aggressive quantitative easing near zero interest rates, undermining confidence in these reserve currencies[5] - Emerging economies are increasing their gold reserves, indicating a paradox where the freedom from gold constraints leads to a heightened desire for gold reserves[6] Group 3: Capital Flows and Regulatory Needs - International capital flows have grown significantly, revealing the weaknesses of existing monetary systems, with capital acting as a powerful force that can destabilize these systems[7] - The Jamaica System's characteristics of freedom and diversity allow international capital to attack weaker economic regions, necessitating capital control measures to prevent financial crises in emerging markets[8] Group 4: Future of the Monetary System - The future restructuring of the international monetary system will depend on shifts in global economic and trade centers, influenced by technological advancements and industrial competitiveness[9] - The current monetary system faces challenges from structural imbalances among major economies, which could lead to financial crises and increased protectionism, particularly from the U.S.[10]

Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The core message emphasizes the need for dialogue and cooperation among all parties to improve global financial governance, advocating for reform, openness, and multilateralism [1] - The discussion on the international monetary system has evolved, with current debates focusing on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the role of a supranational currency like the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Systems - There is a growing demand for improvements in the traditional cross-border payment systems, with emerging payment infrastructures and settlement methods driving the evolution towards more efficient, secure, and inclusive systems [3] - Three major trends in cross-border payments are identified: diversification of payment systems, enhanced interoperability, and accelerated application of new technologies [3] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - Post-2008 financial crisis, the global financial safety net has been strengthened, with the IMF enhancing its crisis response capabilities and various regional financial stability mechanisms being established [4] - China has signed bilateral currency swap agreements with over 30 countries, contributing to the global financial safety net [4] Group 4: Challenges in Financial Stability - The current regulatory framework is fragmented, with risks of regulatory arbitrage and insufficient oversight in emerging areas like digital finance [5] Group 5: Governance of International Financial Organizations - The governance of international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank needs reform to better reflect the actual economic standing of emerging markets and developing countries [6][7] - The IMF's quota system, which determines its crisis response capacity and member voting rights, requires adjustments to enhance its legitimacy and representation [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) through four key strategies: advancing RMB settlement and pricing, constructing a closed-loop financing system, issuing offshore stablecoins, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility [1][5]. Group 1: Changes in the International Monetary System - The credibility of the US dollar is weakening, as evidenced by the recent volatility in US stocks, bonds, and currency, leading to a decline in the perceived safety of US Treasury bonds [1]. - The rise of "Made in China" is notable, with significant advancements in strategic emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, 5G communication, and AI, enhancing the market's focus on Chinese manufacturing [1]. - The restructuring of the trade system is evident, with the US imposing significant tariffs on trade partners, indicating a reduced willingness to act as the global consumer, which may decrease the dollar's role in trade settlements [1]. Group 2: Implications for the Renminbi - The RMB is experiencing upward pressure on its value, moving away from depreciation expectations, particularly after strong measures were taken in April [3]. - The nominal exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has shown signs of undervaluation, suggesting potential for appreciation in the future [3]. - The actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has decreased by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025, despite a significant trade surplus [3]. Group 3: Sources of Appreciation Pressure on the Renminbi - The weakening of the dollar's dual anchors has reduced depreciation pressure on the RMB, while internal manufacturing surpluses are on the rise [4]. - China possesses a complete fiscal sovereignty and a relatively healthy fiscal situation, providing the government with the capacity to expand fiscal spending and offer safe assets to international investors [4]. Group 4: Recommendations for RMB Internationalization - The first recommendation is to advance RMB settlement and pricing, particularly in the commodities sector, where China is the largest consumer [5]. - The second recommendation involves constructing a closed-loop financing system by enhancing the return on RMB assets and expanding capital project openness [5]. - The third recommendation is to issue offshore stablecoins, with a pilot program in Hong Kong, leveraging China's manufacturing advantages [5]. - The fourth recommendation is to restore and enhance the RMB's exchange rate flexibility to mitigate one-sided downward pressure and avoid excessive binding to the US dollar [5].

Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a recurring theme in the history of monetary systems [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's experience with the pound, to illustrate the inherent instability in unipolar monetary systems [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the "Triffin Dilemma" is not limited to the Bretton Woods system but is a common issue across all unipolar international monetary systems [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins and Future Considerations - There are ongoing debates regarding the role of stablecoins in the monetary system, including their potential to complement or replace the dollar [5]. - The article suggests that understanding the essence and functions of money is crucial for evaluating the impact of stablecoins on the current monetary landscape [5]. - It calls for a grounded discussion based on facts, history, and theory to avoid falling into the trap of grand narratives in the study of international monetary systems [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the current international monetary system, particularly focusing on the role of the US dollar and the potential for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan as a response to the declining dominance of the dollar [2][6][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and International Monetary System - The US, as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, maintains economic prosperity by borrowing from other countries, leading to a significant accumulation of debt [3][6]. - Recent data indicates that the US GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased imports driven by tariff policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US economy [3][4]. - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, dropping 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [4][10]. Group 2: Challenges of Dollar Dominance - The "Triffin Dilemma" persists, highlighting the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to provide global liquidity and the resulting pressure on the dollar's value [6][8]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in Q1 2024, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 3: Internationalization of the Chinese Yuan - The article emphasizes the strategic opportunity for the yuan's internationalization amid the multi-polarization of the international monetary system [15]. - Key measures proposed for enhancing yuan internationalization include improving the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), expanding currency swap agreements, and exploring more offshore yuan usage scenarios [15][16][17]. - The issuance of offshore yuan stablecoins is suggested as a new approach to promote yuan internationalization, particularly in the context of digital finance [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence and development of digital currencies, particularly stablecoins, are seen as a necessary evolution in the context of historical changes in the international monetary system, driven by technological advancements and shifting societal values [1][7][12]. Group 1: Evolution of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system has transitioned through three main stages: the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the current credit-based system, with each stage reflecting changes in global economic dynamics [4][6]. - The credit-based era has enhanced central banks' ability to control money supply, making monetary policy crucial, yet it also presents management challenges, as not all countries can effectively manage their credit currencies [6][10]. Group 2: Necessity of Digital Currency - The rise of digital currencies is closely linked to technological progress and the emergence of a new generation of consumers, termed "digital natives," who have different preferences for payment methods and asset types compared to previous generations [7][8]. - Digital currencies, especially stablecoins, are a response to the demand for real-time settlement, global asset circulation, and privacy protection, driven by participants in the digital economy [9][10]. Group 3: Trends in Monetary Diversification - The future monetary landscape is expected to be more diversified, with various forms of digital currencies and stablecoins playing increasingly significant roles in payments, cross-border settlements, and asset allocation [10][11]. - Stablecoins, while anchored to fiat currencies or specific assets, can disrupt traditional banking structures and challenge central banks' control over money circulation and financial data [10][11]. Group 4: Central Bank Responses - Central banks and financial regulators need to adapt their strategies to leverage the benefits of stablecoins and digital currencies while preventing monopolistic practices by non-bank entities [11][13]. - The exploration of stablecoin compliance regulations in economies like the U.S. serves as a reference for global financial markets, emphasizing the importance of anti-money laundering, customer fund safety, and risk management [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The evolution of money reflects societal consensus on value, with digital currencies still in a phase of exploration and integration into the financial system [12][13]. - Despite the rise of new monetary tools, central bank-issued currencies will continue to play a foundational role in payment systems and financial regulation for the foreseeable future [12][13].

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with the competition between China and the United States in the stablecoin sector representing a struggle for dominance in the future international monetary system [2] - Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies or specific assets, are becoming a new battleground for both countries, reflecting their differing strategic intentions [2] - The U.S. government aims to expand the potential buyer base for U.S. Treasury bonds by issuing stablecoins, thereby reducing reliance on foreign central banks [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which mandates that for every dollar stablecoin issued, an equivalent value of U.S. Treasury bonds must be purchased, potentially injecting $2 trillion into the Treasury market if the stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion [5] - China's central bank is actively promoting the internationalization of the digital yuan to gain a foothold in the stablecoin arena, viewing stablecoins as a tool for enhancing national monetary power [7] - Hong Kong has been designated as a testing ground for the digital yuan, with the passage of the Stablecoin Ordinance, positioning it as a "stablecoin regulatory special zone" [9] Group 3 - The value of currencies, including the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, ultimately depends on credit backing, with recent surges in Bitcoin prices reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [10] - China's strategy for developing stablecoins is not solely focused on addressing fiscal challenges but aims to establish a new global monetary order [11] - The competition between U.S. and Chinese stablecoins signifies a significant shift in the global monetary landscape, leading to the emergence of a more diversified international monetary system [11]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved over time, with the dominance of currencies reflecting changes in global power dynamics and national competitiveness [3] - The Euro, established in 1999, currently holds about 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the Renminbi has risen to become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [4] - Future discussions on the international monetary system may focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the potential of a super-sovereign currency like the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4][5] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for global financial stability and is evolving towards greater efficiency, security, and inclusivity [6] - There is a trend towards diversification in cross-border payments, with more countries using local currencies for settlements, thus reducing the dominance of a single sovereign currency [6][7] - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and digital currencies are reshaping the traditional payment system, enhancing efficiency while posing regulatory challenges [7] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors like digital assets [8] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to address regulatory gaps and enhance the stability of non-bank financial intermediaries, which have seen significant growth in recent years [8] - Strengthening the IMF's role as a core institution in the global financial safety net is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [9] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank are necessary to reflect the actual economic standing of emerging markets and developing countries [10][11] - The governance structure of these organizations should be updated to enhance the representation and voice of developing nations, promoting true multilateralism [11] - Strengthening the economic oversight functions of international financial organizations is crucial for assessing global risks and guiding countries towards supporting economic globalization [11]