Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

| 中加多国制度工程的 | | | | 515080 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 186 | | | +0.008 +0.51% | | | SSE CNY | 9:38:09 交易中 | | 通融公口+ | | | 净值走势 | | | 招商中证红利ETF | | | T-1日单位申赎资产 | | | 1574571.53元 | | | 近5日净流入 | | | 单位(万元) | | | | | | 5827 | | | | 3949 | | | | | 1897 | | | 1742 | | | -3173 | | | | | | 9-9 | 9-10 | 9-11 | 9-12 | 9-15 | | 天数 | | 净流天 | 净流额 | 净流率 | | 5 | | 4 | 10242 | 1.41% | | 10 | | 6 | 3317 | 0.45% | | 20 | | 13 | 30507 | 4.31% | 由于"新国九条"与类"四万亿"等政策的重叠推动，上证指数在创新高后并没有危险信号出现，反而可能 在窄幅震荡中向着新一轮新高蓄势。在市场还没有选择 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to long-term valuation compression and the potential for valuation recovery, which has been building up over the past few years [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes "value anchoring and going with the trend," focusing on maintaining a balanced portfolio while adhering to low valuation assets for a more "secure" investment approach [1][5] - The strategy involves a flexible adjustment to market conditions, allowing for rebalancing of positions and combinations based on market dynamics [7] Investment Strategy - The preferred investment model is to focus on low-valuation assets, reflecting a preference for a stable investment style [5] - The approach includes diversified sector allocation and holding assets at different valuation realization stages, rather than concentrating on a single high-risk investment [5] - The focus is on capturing valuation recovery rather than speculative valuation expansion, with a keen eye on risk-reward ratios and certainty [5][6] Market Outlook - The investment outlook remains positive across multiple sectors, including innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, cyclical industries, automotive, and public utilities [10][11] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is particularly highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for domestic companies to transition from following to leading innovation [10] - The AI sector is noted for its potential, especially in computing power and humanoid robotics, which are expected to become significant markets [11] Sector-Specific Insights - In advanced manufacturing, the shift towards higher value chain segments is seen as crucial for enhancing competitiveness and market returns [11] - The cyclical sector, particularly energy and chemicals, is anticipated to see price stabilization and growth potential due to favorable market conditions [11] - In the automotive sector, the focus is on identifying companies undergoing deep reforms or new product cycles, with an emphasis on smart and robotic trends [11] - The public utilities sector is viewed as presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities due to currently reasonable valuations and expected growth in electricity demand [11] Conclusion - Overall, the A-share market is expected to witness a maturation of shareholder return and market value management systems, with a focus on identifying undervalued assets that show potential for fundamental improvement [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of understanding volatility in investment, emphasizing that it is a significant risk factor that can impact investor returns [3][4][11] - It contrasts two funds: Fund A with a 15% annualized return but high volatility, and Fund B with a 10% return and low volatility, suggesting that investors in Fund B may achieve better average returns due to lower drawdowns [10][11] - The article highlights that while volatility is often viewed as a risk, some investment experts, like Warren Buffett, argue that it should not be equated with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [12][14] Group 2 - The article explains that volatility can be seen as a source of potential returns, particularly in trading strategies that embrace market fluctuations [15][20] - It outlines different investor attitudes towards volatility: risk-averse investors view it as a risk to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][24] - The discussion includes various trading strategies that leverage volatility, such as grid trading and trend trading, which require different approaches to managing risk and returns [20][22]

Group 1: Company Overview - Bendigo & Adelaide Bank Ltd (ASX: BEN) shares are currently priced around $12.60, with a focus on determining their true value for investors seeking dividend income [1][11] - The bank operates in a competitive environment dominated by a few large players, with a preference among Australian investors for bank shares due to their dividend potential and franking credits [2][3] Group 2: Valuation Methods - The Price-Earnings (PE) ratio is a common valuation tool, with BEN's current PE ratio calculated at 14.5x, compared to the banking sector average of 19x, leading to a sector-adjusted valuation of $16.92 [6] - A Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is highlighted as a more effective valuation method for banks, with BEN's share price estimated at $13.32 using a blended growth and risk rate, and $13.75 using an adjusted dividend payment [11][12] - Considering fully franked dividends, the valuation based on a gross dividend payment of $0.93 results in a share price estimate of $19.64 [12] Group 3: Growth and Risk Considerations - The analysis includes various growth and risk rate scenarios, indicating that a 6% risk rate with a 2% growth rate yields a valuation of $16.25, while a 10% risk rate with a 4% growth rate results in a valuation of $10.83 [13] - Investors are encouraged to assess the bank's growth strategy, including its focus on lending versus non-interest income, and to consider economic indicators such as unemployment and consumer sentiment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to long-term valuation compression and the subsequent recovery potential, which has been building up over the past few years [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy emphasizes "value anchoring and going with the trend," focusing on maintaining a balanced portfolio while adhering to low valuation principles for safer investments [1][2]. - The preference for low-valuation assets reflects a stable investment style, favoring diversified sector allocations and different stages of valuation realization [2][4]. Market Strategy - In a strong market environment, capturing the trend of valuation recovery is more important than trying to maximize profits [3][4]. - The approach to investment is flexible, adapting strategies based on market conditions, with a focus on risk-reward ratios and certainty [4][5]. Research and Team Structure - The investment research team consists of nearly 20 members, covering various sectors such as manufacturing, TMT, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services, focusing on both fundamental and technical analysis [4][5]. Sector Focus - The company is optimistic about multiple sectors, including high-end manufacturing, technology, cycles, military, and pharmaceuticals, with a particular emphasis on the innovative drug sector [5][6]. - The innovative drug industry is expected to undergo significant transformation, moving from reliance on technology imports to self-innovation and global market expansion [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in the innovative drug sector, with a focus on tracking key companies' pipeline data and business development progress [6][7]. - Other areas of interest include AI, advanced manufacturing, energy and chemicals, automotive, and public utilities, with specific strategies for each sector [7].

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊黄金的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源：雪球 最近几年 ， 无论是从商场里的首饰店还是新闻里 ， 大家多少都能感受到黄金的热度 。 事实也确实如此 。 自2022年11月触及疫情后的低点以来 ， 国际金价就一路高歌猛进 。 就在9月3日 ， COMEX黄金期货在连涨七日后 ， 突 破3600美元/盎司的历史关口 。 这轮黄金 " 牛市 " 到底缘何而起 ， 还能走多远 ？ 现在还能不能上车 ？ 当下配置黄金又要注意些什么 ？ 01 黄金暴涨的两大原因 近几年黄金价格能一路飙升 ， 主要是受两大关键因素共同推动 。 一方面是各国央行的 " 去美元化 " 。 自第二次世界大战结束后 ， 美元一直在全球货币储备和贸易结算中占据重要位置 ， 各国央行高度依赖美元作为储备货币 ， 不少国家的货币汇 率也会直接与美元挂钩 。 然而现在情况变了 ， 在地缘政治风险上升 、 美国财政赤字高企等背景下 ， 全球央行 " ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook - BlackRock is particularly optimistic about AI-driven large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. over the next 12 months, supported by strong expectations for interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - The firm predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two rate cuts this year, contrary to the market's expectation of 5-6 cuts, due to a moderate economic slowdown rather than a recession [1][4] - BlackRock maintains a neutral view on the Chinese stock market but is optimistic about Chinese tech stocks, citing significant valuation gaps compared to global peers and the potential for further valuation recovery driven by AI [1][7] Group 2: Employment and Economic Conditions - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant slowdown, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, leading to a 4.3% unemployment rate, the highest in nearly four years [3] - Despite the weak employment data, BlackRock's CIO suggests that the labor supply is decreasing due to demographic changes and immigration policy adjustments, complicating the interpretation of employment statistics [3] - Wage growth remains strong, with average hourly earnings increasing by 3.7% year-over-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - The AI wave is seen as a major driver for large-cap tech stocks, with global enterprises investing approximately $500 billion annually in AI, which represents 0.5% of global GDP [5] - BlackRock believes that the AI-driven revenue and profit growth will exceed expectations, despite concerns about a peak in AI capital expenditure by 2026 [5][6] - The firm emphasizes that traditional mean reversion strategies may not apply in the current macroeconomic environment, as inflation rates are not yet stabilized [5][6] Group 4: Chinese Market and AI Development - Foreign investment interest in China is growing, particularly in the tech sector, as global investors recognize that AI development is not exclusive to the U.S. [7] - Chinese cloud service providers are experiencing significant capital expenditure growth, with Tencent's capital spending expected to increase by 119% year-over-year by Q2 2025 [8] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a surge in demand for AI chips and related technologies in China, with local manufacturers increasing R&D investments to reduce reliance on single suppliers like NVIDIA [8]

贝莱德在未来12个月尤其看好由 AI 驱动的美国大型科技股。 目前，美国降息预期强烈，人工智能（AI）这一牛市主线仍支撑美国和全球股市。全球资金越发看向 新兴市场，中国的AI主题亦引发外资兴趣。 针对未来的全球投资前景，第一财经对话贝莱德智库中东及亚洲首席投资官庞文博（Ben Powell）。在 他看来，即使近期非农就业数据大幅放缓，但美国经济更可能是"温和放缓"，因为老龄化和移民政策的 变化可能会减少劳动力供给，但对工人的需求仍在增长，而不是收缩，因此目前并不指向衰退。同时， 美国的工资增长仍相对强劲，这可能会阻止通胀完全回到目标水平。因此，贝莱德预计美联储未来的累 计降息次数并不会达到市场普遍预期的5~6次，而是在今年降息2次。 整体而言，贝莱德在未来12个月尤其看好由 AI 驱动的美国大型科技股。此外，庞文博表示，尽管整体 对中国股市持有中性观点，但重点看好中国科技股，核心原因是，中国科技股与全球同行（尤其美国科 技股）的估值差距仍较大，且AI驱动的增长逻辑在国内同样成立，存在进一步估值修复空间，而且中 国的芯片产业链具备较大的"国产自主"潜能也越发受到认可。 美国就业未必太弱、谨看降息次数 继8月公布 ...