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格林斯潘、耶伦等大佬联名警告最高法院:绝不能让特朗普罢免库克!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-25 15:12
最高法院的保守派多数派此前多次允许特朗普政府罢免独立机构负责人,即便相关法律诉讼仍在下级法 院推进。但此次众多知名金融界人士联名提交文件,可能成为大法官们考量政府"罢免库克请求"的重要 因素。 大法官们在近期其他案件中已暗示,美联储与其他独立机构存在本质区别,或许应获得特殊考量——部 分原因在于其在美国经济中扮演的核心角色。 AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国一批顶尖前经济政策制定者周四警告最高法院,切勿允许特朗普即刻罢免美联储理事会成员莉萨· 库克(Lisa Cook),称此类举动将威胁央行独立性,并削弱公众对经济的信心。 这个颇具影响力的团体成员涵盖前美联储领导层、前美国财政部长,以及由两党总统任命的其他资深经 济顾问。他们在最新提交的文件中敦促最高法院,在相关诉讼持续期间,允许库克继续留任。 该团体成员包括前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)与本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke),此外还 有多位前财政部长——例如在小约瑟夫·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)总统任内任职的珍妮特·L·耶伦 (Janet L. Yellen)、在巴拉克·奥巴马 ...
美联储的穆萨勒姆:国会已认识到央行独立性的价值,并保护其免受政治操控。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 14:30
美联储的穆萨勒姆:国会已认识到央行独立性的价值,并保护其免受政治操控。 来源:滚动播报 ...
美联储降息25基点!37万亿债务压顶,特朗普提线木偶操控利率决议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 08:43
Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points, reflecting a complex economic landscape with conflicting signals from employment and inflation data [2][4] - The U.S. economy is showing a dual picture, with non-farm payrolls growing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly two years [4] - Inflation remains a concern, with the CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, both above the Fed's 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] Group 2: Political Influence and Economic Pressure - The rapid confirmation of Stephen Milan as a Fed governor has introduced political dynamics into monetary policy, as he is aligned with the Trump administration's pro-growth agenda [1][6] - The current U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, and a 25 basis point rate cut could save nearly $100 billion in interest payments annually, highlighting fiscal pressures as a significant factor in policy decisions [5][9] - The Congressional Budget Office projects a fiscal deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, further intensifying the pressure for rate cuts as a means to alleviate fiscal burdens [9] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - The market has already begun to price in rate cuts, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,730 per ounce, reflecting a 48.94% increase since the last rate cut cycle began [10] - Historical data suggests that during initial rate cut cycles, technology growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, indicating potential short-term gains for the tech sector if the Fed proceeds with cuts [10] - Commodity markets are showing divergent trends, with precious metals like gold benefiting from the anticipated cuts, while industrial metals' performance will depend on the strength of global economic recovery [12]
中国外汇投资研究院:美联储降息重启——经济风险、政府压力与独立性的三重严峻考验
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 13:49
美联储此次调整利率的核心依据在于经济基本面的变化,尤其是劳动力市场指标的显著走弱。政策声明 明确指出,降息是出于对"就业下行风险增加"以及"物价稳定和充分就业两大目标之间平衡变化"的响 应。美联储主席鲍威尔进一步明确表示,劳动力市场已不再非常强劲,并承诺必要时将进一步采取宽松 行动以遏制就业状况恶化。加之多项近期经济数据为这一转向提供了支持,8月非农就业人数仅增长2.2 万人,大幅低于市场预期。更值得警惕的是,6月就业数据被下修至减少1.3万人,为2020年12月以来首 次负增长。政府就业部门的持续萎缩及多项劳动力市场指标的普遍疲软共同表明,就业扩张已陷入停滞 甚至收缩,这促使美联储采取风险管理式降息以防范更大幅度的经济下滑。与此同时,通胀压力仍未彻 底缓解。8月通胀同比增长2.9%,创今年1月以来最高水平,这反映出此前关税政策带来的进口成本上 升正在向消费端传导。就业放缓和通胀粘性并存的局面,使经济初现滞胀特征。美联储试图通过预防性 降息避免经济陷入更严重的增长衰退,但其政策选择正面临增长与通胀两难权衡的严峻挑战。 新华财经北京9月18日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示,美联储在多重经济信号交织与政 ...
Juno markets 官网:鹰派降息,沃勒与鲍曼为何投下关键赞成票?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 10:00
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points has been labeled as hawkish by the market, but the real impact comes from the subtle changes in the voting dynamics [2] - Only the new member Stephen Miran opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while previously dissenting hawkish members Waller and Bowman surprisingly voted in favor [2] - This shift in voting not only disrupts market expectations but also influences the betting odds for the next Fed chair, with Waller's odds dropping significantly and Miran's rising to the top [2] Group 2 - The support from Waller and Bowman alleviates fears that the Federal Reserve will be influenced by the White House, indicating that monetary policy decisions are guided by data rather than political pressures [3] - Their votes serve as a strong affirmation of the Fed's independence, demonstrating that there are decision-makers willing to bear reputational costs for making the right choices [3] - The 25 basis point cut is viewed as a technical adjustment, while the two supportive votes redefine the rules of the game, emphasizing that the Fed's authority is based on professional judgment rather than political fluctuations [3]
特朗普又碰壁!二度罢免美联储理事失败,央行独立性大战才刚开始
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 08:39
美国联邦上诉法院本周一晚间做出裁决,驳回了特朗普试图紧急罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克的请求。这已经是特朗普第二次在针对库克的法律行动中失 败。这场较量不仅关乎个人去留,更引发了关于央行独立性的深刻讨论。 特朗普再次在法庭上栽了跟头! 华盛顿的权力斗争正在升级。就在法院驳回特朗普请求的同一天,他提名的另一位亲信成功通过了参议院确认,进入美联储理事会。这一进一退之 间,一场关于美国央行控制权的暗战已经悄然打响。 特朗普团队这次可谓来势汹汹。他们在最后一刻向上诉法院提出紧急动议,试图阻止库克参加周二的美联储利率决议会议,剥夺她的投票权。要知 道,这次会议将决定数百万美国人的借贷成本,意义重大。 但哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院的法官们果断拒绝了这一请求。他们不仅维持了下级法院的临时禁令,更明确指出:贸然允许总统罢免美联储理事,可 能引发金融市场动荡,甚至让美联储陷入前所未有的政治漩涡。法官们特别强调,如果允许总统随意解职,可能导致库克在诉讼期间反复被停职又复 职,这种不确定性对金融稳定构成严重威胁。 特朗普团队指控库克在加入美联储前存在房贷欺诈行为。但蹊跷的是,司法部门至今未对库克提起任何刑事诉讼。《纽约时报》获取的贷款文件 ...
除了“鹰派降息”,美联储还有个细节对市场“意义非凡”:沃勒和鲍曼的“赞成票”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-18 05:59
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is interpreted as slightly "hawkish," despite the absence of expected dissenting votes from two hawkish members [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which led to significant market volatility before being classified as slightly "hawkish" [1]. - Only new member Stephen Miran voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, while Waller and Bowman, previously seen as dissenters, supported the cut [1]. Group 2: Implications of Votes - Waller and Bowman’s votes are seen as a defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, indicating a potential shift away from political influence in monetary policy [2][4]. - Their support for the rate cut, despite political pressures, suggests that the rationale for aggressive cuts is weaker than the government might want the public to believe [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC decision, Waller's odds of becoming the next Fed Chair significantly decreased, while Miran's odds surged to the top position due to his dissenting vote [3]. - The actions of Waller and Bowman are interpreted as a positive signal, reducing concerns about excessive political interference in future monetary policy [4].
北美观察丨美联储再度九月降息 平衡术下释放哪些深层信号
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-09-18 02:06
Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024 [1][4] - The decision reflects a cautious approach amid a weakening job market and political pressures, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [5][11] Background of Rate Cut - The rate cut comes in the context of a softening job market, with rising unemployment and slowing hiring being significant concerns for the Fed [5] - In contrast to the previous year's aggressive 50 basis point cut, this adjustment is seen as a small step aimed at risk management rather than a decisive shift in policy [5][17] Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected by the end of the year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [7] - The dot plot suggests a gradual decline in long-term interest rate expectations, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being slightly lower than previous estimates, yet still above the neutral rate and inflation target [7][8] Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more gradual approach [8][10] - Powell acknowledged these differing opinions but emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus through diverse viewpoints [8] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 25 basis point cut was a suitable choice for risk management, rejecting the idea of a larger cut due to lack of broad support [10] - He clarified that the rate cut was primarily in response to job market weaknesses rather than a signal that inflation concerns have been resolved [10][15] - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [11][12] Overall Implications - The rate cut is seen as a balancing act between addressing employment pressures and maintaining the Fed's independence amid political scrutiny [15][17] - The cautious approach indicates that while the Fed is willing to ease monetary policy, it remains vigilant about inflation risks and external pressures [15][17]
演员已就位,美联储大戏马上开战
美股研究社· 2025-09-17 11:07
C o o k 获 准 留 任 但 投 票 立 场 成 谜 来源 | 华尔街大事件 在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕,两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 据央视报道,当地时间9月15日,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请,维持了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间,据央视新闻,参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势,通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动 下,Miran预计将于周二上午履新,可能也正好赶上本周的美联储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会,而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了投票权,这使得一场关于央行独立性的 政治角力,直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的决策桌上,让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点,但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入,让最终结果变得难以预测。 甚至有分析认为,FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面,对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上 ...
演员已就位 美联储大戏马上开战
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-16 09:28
在美联储本周关键利率决议前夕,两项人事变动为高度紧张的市场增添了戏剧性。 甚至有分析认为,FOMC可能出现罕见的"四方混战"局面,对市场预期构成重大挑战。 Cook获准留任,但投票立场成谜 据央视报道,当地时间9月15日,美国哥伦比亚特区联邦上诉法院驳回了美国司法部的紧急申请,维持 了下级法院暂时阻止特朗普撤换Lisa Cook的禁令。 这意味着Cook将能够参加本周的美联储会议。 几乎在同一时间,据央视新闻,参议院以48票对47票的微弱优势,通过了对Stephen Miran出任美联储理 事会成员的提名。在共和党的快速推动下,Miran预计将于周二上午履新,可能也正好赶上本周的美联 储会议。 白宫支持的候选人成功入主美联储理事会,而一位面临总统解雇压力的现任理事则通过法庭裁决保住了 投票权,这使得一场关于央行独立性的政治角力,直接延伸到了联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的决策 桌上,让本已备受关注的利率决议更添变数。 虽然市场普遍预期美联储将降息25个基点,但两位立场截然不同的投票委员的加入,让最终结果变得难 以预测。 Cook的留任为此次会议增添了最大的不确定性。上月,因面临虚报主要住所的抵押贷款欺诈指控, ...